Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[The Saucepan Man]

What ho, shipmates.

I have been doing some thinking.

*HONK! Don’t hold your breath. HONK!*

The time for the opening skirmishes is, I think, at an end. Now let us get down to the serious business of spotting these Wolves in earnest. So, some idle thoughts on what has occurred so far.

Much has been fluff and nonsense. Mere buffoonery. And I read nothing into that, save that a Wolf might seek to extend the period of banter so as to avoid serious discussion.

*HONK! Serious discussion? On Day 1? Impossible! HONK!*

Hmm. Wonder if I should rename him Formy Gander.

Anyway, the banter notwithstanding, there have been some moments which bear consideration.

I find Formendacil’s opening gambit intriguing:

Originally Posted by The Freeloading Aristo

The temptation to pull a Nilp and vote myself is... tempting. I simultaneously want a quick out of this game (laziness) and to survive to the end... being a good sport, I'll try for the latter... but a Day 1 death would amuse me no end.

Especially since it would likely be because of this post here.

As I've stated game after game.... short of a stupid slip up (an' I ain't stoopid...) there is no way other than dumb luck to catch a wolf on Day 1.

Day 1s...

The wannabe pirate refers to this as bait. I am tempted to take it. It seems a rather good opening tactic for a Wolf to say something controversial and then point out how it is likely to end in his untimely death. Basic counter-psychology. If he suggests that people will be more inclined to vote for him for what he has said, people will (as Diamond’s reference suggests) actually be less inclined to do so.

And I dislike intensely Day 1 apathy, although that is, I suppose, standard for the Formster.

The Dread(ful) Pirate Roberta suggests that at least one of the “nonsense spouters” is likely a Wolf. Well, yes. Nearly half the passengers had posted at that point. Basic probability suggests that at least one Wolf, more likely two, was among them. But how does that help us? Or are you suggesting that Wolves are more likely to post nonsense at the start? Again, that doesn’t really help us, given the preponderance of piffle in the opening stages of the Day. Trying to look helpful without giving much away, are we?

Then some very early votes. Without any explanation as to why they are cast so early, I might add (although Lhuna’s time-zone affliction is duly acknowledged). Normally, I regard early voters as unlikely Wolves, as it is an unnecessarily attention-grabbing thing to do for a Wolf on Day 1. And so, while I note the possibility of a bluff, I regard mormegil’s early vote as an unlikely Wolf vote.

What does concern me, however, is these early votes for our esteemed slavedriver, without him having even said a word. Now, I can understand threatening to vote for him for humorous effect on the basis of past history or as an “in character” comment. But I am wary of anyone who actually votes so early for one who might be of great help to us, if innocent, with absolutely nothing to go on. Lhuna, perhaps (but only perhaps) can be excused because of her aforementioned malady. But not so Rune. Is he perhaps a Wolf picking up on the possibility of an early exit for one who might be dangerous to his pack?

And now Gurthang is muttering against Eomer too.

Originally Posted by Guthang

Although, if we are going to lynch Eomer, we should do so sooner rather than later. If he's a wolf, he always (and I do mean always) manages to wiggle out of getting lynched later in the game. Basically, if he's not lynched early, he won't be lynched at all... which is very bad for us if he is a lycan.

Poor reasoning there, Plankmeister. We should not lynch Eomer sooner rather than later unless there is some basis upon which to justify doing so. The likelihood is he’s innocent. He may even be a Gifted. Are you mad, man?

Finally, Glirdan’s early vote for Kath. Not sure what to make of that, but it may have been that he had to cast his vote then or not at all and so went for an “in character” approach. I don’t like it, though.

Of course, those are really the only passengers who have stuck there head above the parapet, so to speak, so it is quite possible that there is not one Wolf among them. I am most definitely wary of this developing Eomer bandwagon, though.

*HONK! ‘E don’t ‘arf blather on. Don’t ‘e? HONK!*

I should add that I am with those who have suggested that we should lynch the Goose and serve him up as a nice roast dinner.