Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Anguirel]

Arrrgh!

Well, I too must vote early. I have two choices-follow my actual suspicions and vote morm, Form or Rune (Form replaced Jenny who now looks more reasonable); or vote Nilp in a desperate and probably fruitless attempt to save Eomer, who is patently being grudge-lynched!

Well, gulp, a Scot's got to do what a Scot's got to do.

++NILP

[Lalaith]

I've got to leave now. I've thought it over, and (particularly with so little to go on) I can't really justify voting for one person I don't particularly suspect (Nilp) to save another person I don't particularly suspect (Eomer). Or vice versa. So I'll go with my original suspicion:


+FORMENDACIL

[Holbytlass]

Runecrazyslave: obsesses about cheese;joins bandwoagon votes Eomer
*at this point just see vote as easy way out

Mormynitpick: votes Glirdan-doesn't undrstand talk; agrees with Anguirel about leaving Eoemr alone till he speaks
*other than not good reason vote, nothing here

Lhunabarfarama: suggests Firefoot and Gurthang are the lovers; wolves are Firefoot Fineasea Talisien Frederich(TGWBS);votes Eomer
*Eomer bandwagon

JennyRoberta: calls all to focus-beleives a wolf has posted (up to 22); suspects SpM based on bluffing with goose;trusts SpM because of soberness; questions why Gurthang put lover hint-says a real loverwould be quieter.
* I find it odd that she wonders why Gurthang puts lover hint in and then in same post(44) puts in more true love talk between herself and Diamond.

Caranbartender:bar joke banter
*nothing to go on

Taliesincriminal: wants to kill Glirdan for being drunk; doesn't trust SpM Rune defends Eomer;wants Capt's bed
*nothing here

Lalaithfutballwidow: finds Formen and Gurthang odd;suggests voting record will be easier cause wolves will be suspicious of treachery also; says Nilp is being Nilp
*at least is thinking of ways lovers could actually help village

Firefootdogtotting: dog suggests lynch pirates;says SpM talking sense
*nothing to go on

rearadmirableSpM: loads of clever fluff and buffoonery;calls on Formen's possible bluff; suspicious of Rune and Gurthang for Eomer vote/bandwagon; agrres with Lalaith of lovers treachery and early voting record could help village.; reciprocates Anguriel's trust (for now)
*I would be inclined to trust early on but that d*amn goose and the possible blatant bluff

Findseasea: no posts
*wouldn't waste a vote 'cause bolt of ligtening would take care of this passenger if no show tomorrow;


again, analyzed just to post 64

[Findëasëa]

Ack, this ship is the worst workplace I have seen in all my years. Murder, slavery, werewolves, and a goose! (If my boss ever saw the state of things here...) On second thought, I guess there are some cheery points, like seclusion…

There have been a few things that I have found interesting so far.

Yes, it is day one, so some degree of joking about lynches and randomness is to be expected, but it seems that the lynch of Eomer could be a great way for a wolf to hide on day one. I also find Eomer’s response to the votes interesting.

Eomer- As to today's exchanges, nothing has been too interesting. Although I would say that there are typical old-fashioned masks being hidden behind. Formendacil's "I hate Day One" rhetoric is always hard to make sense of; and Lhuna's "I vote for Eomer" is nearly as traditional. I would put Nilp in with these two but — for obvious reasons — his style is highly unwolvish.

He makes a valid point, it would be quite easy for any of these people to just act as they tend to on day one to hide their newfangled fangs. I do not think that this will cause me to vote for anyone today, but I think it might be useful later in the game when we have more information to go on.

I will go review more and vote in a bit.

[Holbytlass]

Right now my suspect list would be:
Formendacil-'don't kill me, I have a job"
Nilp/Durelin-suicidal lovers?
SpM-that goose!
jenny-points out real lover would be quiet than has True Love talk in her post
Gurthang-biblical love verse

All of these people have things in their posts that seem to be bluffing-some blatantly out there and some in my mind.

[Durelin]

Hmm...All is going according to my ninja plans?

Wouldn't it be lovely if we lynched his shadow clone...

Actually I would've preferred to lynch Mr. Gander.

I do enjoy my fowl. Roasted, preferably.

[The Saucepan Man]

The time has come for me to vote. And unfortunately there's not a great deal to go on.

I'm sticking with my earlier list of "under the radar" types. And I have narrowed it down further. Lalaith seems to be committing herself more in what she says and Taliesin has not returned since earlier in the Day.

So it's between Firefoot, Caran and Holbytlass. Firefoot and Caran have established a presence but actually said little of substance. However, both have given fairly weak reasoning for their votes and I can't help but think that a Wolf would try to do more to justify her vote (even on Day 1).

Holby, on the other hand, has said more of substance but remained fairly non-committal. Some flim-flam in her first post, followed by a list of votes so far and little else. Then some blow-by-blow analyses of what each passenger has said. Some analysis, but doesn't commit herself. All ways in which a Wolf can maintain herself as part of the discussion without giving too much away. And I am suspicous of the way that she is seeking to justify her suspicions by reference to supposed "bluffs" that were largely part of the "in character" banter.

Yup. The whale hunter gets my vote today. As I said, it's no job for a lady, so I can only assume that she has supernatural strength on her side.

+ + HOLBYTLASS

And now I am off to bag the Captain's cabin, and so bid you all adieu.

[Firefoot]

Thoughts about Durelin:

Day 1 - Banter with/vote for Nilp and continued jesting about the goose would be an easy way for a wolf to hide. She is around, but doesn't contribute much.

Day 2 - Her comment about the throw-away vote for Nilp, I don't see as having much significance. It might be honest, might not. This comment:

Who said wolves can't be logical?

has never sat well with me for whatever reason. I'm not really getting anything from her musings about Jenny as hunter/not hunter. She votes for Holby without listing a reason; the only place she had previously mentioned her had been about a page ago:

I think Holbytlass is a good candidate for wolfishness because: 1. her posts are always somehow attempts to analyze. 2. her vote for Nilp to tie up the vote...yeah, I know, she knew she would be in the hotseat for that.

I'm not sure her reasoning is that great, but at least the vote wasn't out of the blue as I had supposed. Incidentally, her comment about Rune from the same post was:

And then there's Rune, an Eomer voter. He's posted just enough to stay involved, but not enough to draw attention to himself. His need for an early vote itself is not incriminating at all, and completely understandable, and it is also understandable that he make a rather random vote, but...why Eomer when he already had one vote? If you're gonna make a random vote why not at least make it a bit even or fair...

I could see this as either innocent or guilty.

Day 3 - She comes back with an explanation:

I voted for Holby because I was much more certain that Lhuna was innocent. Lhuna was Lhuna, and not wolfish Lhuna, in my opinion.

Fair enough, I suppose. In the same post she claims that she doubted Jenny had been the Hunter. Her suspects become Rune, Holby, Ang, and possibly Taliesin; she decided to leave Sauce off the list. She votes for Rune.

Day 4 -

Durelin - Just goes to show you how important communication is in any relationship...

This definitely just sent up warning bells in my head. Durelin's been dancing around Sauce for a while, he's always been just off her suspicion list... what if they're the lovers?

This comment of Durelin's is rather strange:

Okay, so I didn't read anything before the end of YesterDay yet.....

This definitely does not seem wolvish. What kind of wolf wouldn't know what was going on? And a little later:

For some reason, I keep forgetting that Holby revealed herself...

Same thing. Unless... someone paraphrased/told her what was going on and what needed to happen? Then she votes for Rune again

Day 5 - I didn't see anything particularly worthy of note.

Okay, going back to a Durelin/Sauce possibility. It could explain where Durelin was getting her Rune suspicions from - Sauce tipped her off? Wolvish compatriots wouldn't know the difference, and she would just look like an innocent with a lucky guess. I would need to go back and look at Sauce's posts (oh, boy) to see what he's said about Durelin before I made up my mind, though.

[Findëasëa]

I see Lalaith’s point now. Since the lovers are working for their own benefit foremost, they may be less subtle when it comes to voting in order to protect their lover’s life and their own. It still seems to me that both of their second loyalties lay with the wolves, however, so this may still cloud the clarity of the voting record. I didn’t find much to go on that would warrant a strong vote for anyone, most of the discussion today was, although quite amusing, altogether inconclusive. I find Glirdan’s actions a bit suspicious, but I am not sure that a wolf would risk being so bold. He stayed in character in his posts and made a nonsense vote. I would imagine that a werewolf might be a bit more wary of not saying anything of value. I do not want to rule him out as suspect, but I don’t want to vote for him today.

[Holbytlass]

Morm-->Glirdan
Lhuna-->Eomer
Rhune-->Eomer
Glirdan-->Kath
Nilp-->Nilp
Engels-->Eomer
Durelin-->Nilp
Diamond-->Eomer
Anguirel-->Nilp
Lalaith-->Form
Caran-->JennyHallu
Firefoot-->Nilp
Spm-->Holby

Glirdan-1, Kath-1, Eomer-4, Nilp-4, Form 1, JennyHallu-1, Holby-1

I won't be back so will have to vote now. The voting for Eomer is spite to me for past grievances so I will break the tie and vote

++Nilp

Duerlin's playing with Nilp is one thing but her actual vote for him is another. While I would rather vote Durelin, I;m not going to add another name to the list. I think there is something going on between them. I know I'll be in the hotseat tomorrow for breaking the tye but I won't sit here and watch a person go down just for past greivances.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Mormegil for Glirdan. Says that his posting style is annoying. Nothing to go on at that point, I suppose. As has been pointed out though, Glirdan is a likely vote-getter in any case.

Lhuna for Eomer. Lhuna always votes for me. It seems quite unfair, especially as I had not posted at that point.

Rune for Eomer. The succeeding post to Lhuna's vote. May be telling.

Glirdan for Kath. For no reason. Throwing his vote away, perhaps to seem random and individual.

Nilp for Nilp. He's not a wolf because he knows that the village will leap on a Nilp-bandwagon, because it's so easy for the village to do that.

TGWBS for Eomer. In character. Somewhat dangerous to do this, though, because of the building momentum.

Durelin for Nilp. A nice, easy vote.

Diamond for Eomer. Petty, childish and envious.

Anguirel for Nilp. Explicitly wants to save me. This is fair as I will probably be more useful than The Suicidal One.

Lalaith for Formendacil. She might suspect him because of his lazy attitude to the first Day.

Caranlondien for Jenny. Apparently because she would make a good wolf.

Firefoot for Nilp. Exasperated vote.

SPM for Holby. Probably because of these classic recap posts Holby is fond of.

Holby for Nilp. Usual reasons.


So what do I think of the votes so far? The Eomer-bandwagon is bitter, twisted, and very possibly contains a couple of dark, furry secrets. Out of the Eomer-voters, I am inclined to say that Diamond is most likely to be innocent, because she was always going to vote for me anyway (due to the last game).

The Nilp-bandwagon is more justified. After all, he did vote for himself. Still an easy place to hide, though.

Of the others, Glirdan's for Kath and Caran's for Jenny seem the most suspicious to me.

Glirdan or Caran, Glirdan and Caran. Hmm...

[Taliesin]

Well well, time to get more serious.

I'm not going to follow this Eomer bandwagon just because of his job,
it seems rather silly to kill someone who might be a good asset to the village for roleplaying reasons.

SpM is the loudest, most helpful villager so far. It seems rather safe to follow him, except the fact that I don't like being on the Saucie's list of doom . Then again, my memory is telling me not to trust SpM too early. If he's on our side, great.. if he's not however, he is very dangerous to have around too long.

Voting for Nilp on a day one seems like the easiest option, but there's always the argument that he gets more usefull after the first day. I'd give him the benefit of the doubt and see for myself is that's true. And the Durelin / Nilp tension, meh, I wouldn't give it too much attention.

Originally Posted by Findëasëa

I may be misunderstanding the role, but I thought that both lovers have to be left alive at the end of the game, and since one is a werewolf and the village can only win when all werewolves are dead. This means that the werewolves will have to win for the lovers to win.

I think this is the case. If one lover dies, the other goes down with him/her. So naturally both lovers have to be left alive. So it is in the werewolves favour to let the lovers stay alive.

That's it for now, I'll be back just before the deadline to cast a vote. I'm off daydreaming for a bit.

*walks away.. mumbling something about 'goal'...*

edit: xposted with everyone since #80

[JennyHallu]

I'm very unsure of whom to vote for. I am absolutely against both the Eomer and Nilp bandwagons, as I don't see enough reason to vote for either of them right now. Both bandwagons seem fishy to me, and tomorrow I shall be taking a very close look at who's on them.

Frankly, the group that urged and nagged Eomer to play with the full intention of getting him purposelessly lynched Day 1 irks me. Unless they've got a reason to think him wolvish...which I haven't once seen...that's really just kind of rude.

[JennyHallu]

DON'T VOTE NILP, guys. Not without at least a smidgeon of evidence against him!

I think Eomer likely innocent as well.

Therefore, I'm following Saucie's lead, especially since I felt her analysis misconstrued some of what was said today.

++Holby

If all those who have yet to vote join us, we can save both Nilp and Eomer!

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Holby

* I find it odd that she wonders why Gurthang puts lover hint in and then in same post(44) puts in more true love talk between herself and Diamond.

"True Love" talk concerning Diamond was a Princess Bride based joke, like both of our occupations, and not one that would imply I was involved with her. In the movie, the Dread Pirate Roberts spares Wesley's life because he claims he has a True Love waiting for him at home.

My confusion concerning Gurthang involved why he would hint that he himself is a Lover. Wild suspicions of others being Lovers are par for the course.

[Firefoot]

I can't say that anyone is looking particularly suspicious to me.

++Nilp

Just because we're never going to figure him out unless he's lynched...

[Findëasëa]

Lalaith- I've also been having some thoughts about the wolves. Now, it is known that these creatures sometimes like to betray their own during lynch votes, in order to appear benign to the innocents. With the presence of the Lovers, this is going to be less likely - the wolves themselves will be very suspicious of treachery. So, (until the Lovers are unmasked, at least) I think voting records will be easier to read than usual.

I may be misunderstanding the role, but I thought that both lovers have to be left alive at the end of the game, and since one is a werewolf and the village can only win when all werewolves are dead. This means that the werewolves will have to win for the lovers to win. If the lovers are on the side of the wolves, they are just an additional person for the wolves to use to cause confusion. I imagine that a wolf being sacrificed to benefit the team overall is probably something that wolves plan ahead of time, or only in a dire case. I don’t think that the lovers will cause treachery among the wolves. I don’t think that it will make the record any easier to read, but harder, as there are five people out there working for the victory of the wolves and to cause confusion.

edit- spelling correction

[Caranlondien]

Well, Eomer and Nilp are in the lead, but I can't say they look very suspicious to me. Of course, no one really does; it's Day 1 and hard to find anything to go by.

So far I'm inclined to trust SpM (due in part to past un-called for lynchings). I probably won't be back toDay, so I'll vote:

++JennyHallu

just because I know how fiendish she can be as a wolf (erm, orc, that is...) Not a great reason for a vote, but the best I can do so far.

Morm-->Glirdan
Lhuna-->Eomer
Rhune-->Eomer
Glirdan-->Kath
Nilp-->Nilp
Engels-->Eomer
Durelin-->Nilp
Diamond-->Eomer
Anguirel-->Nilp
Lalaith-->Form
Caran-->JennyHallu

Glirdan-1, Kath-1, Eomer-4, Nilp-3, Form 1, JennyHallu 1