Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[The Saucepan Man]

I have been pondering further the Wolves’ choice of victim last Night. Although I do not discount the possibility of grudges playing a role, given how absurdly prominent this concept has been so far aboard this vessel, I rather agree with Lalaith that the Wolves are unlikely to be motivated by grudges alone. I also agree with Lalaith that, while an innocent Eomer presented a formidable foe to the Wolves, there are others who they might also consider dangerous and who were distinctly less likely to attract votes today.

Did the Wolves think Eomer likely to be a Gifted? Possibly, but I can see little in what he said to give them such an impression. His suspicions (primarily Glirdan and Caran) were not strongly stated and there was, as Ang has noted, no particular link with Nilp.

So, I am led to the belief that Eomer was killed to create a certain amount of confusion and perhaps to lead us in the wrong direction. If so, I am inclined to think that those he viewed as suspicious are in fact more likely than not innocent. I am also reinforced in my tentative view that there may not have been a Wolf among the Eomer voters. Even if there is a Wolf there, it’s likely only one at most. In this regard, I would view Lhuna and Diamond as the most likely candidates, given that Eomer said that he was inclined towards thinking them innocent. Of the two, Diamond currently looks the more suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Rear Admiral, based on votes I don't see how Anguirel by appearing to have been trying to save Eomer does not gain your suspicions, but I who broke the tye in Eomer's favor looks suspicious.

I understand your reasoning based on my trying to be helpful and that I can't help. I was trying to gleen any sort "solid" theroies to work and everyone knows how hard that is on first day. Hindsight, I shouldn't have tried so hard.

Assuming him innocent (and I remain inclined to that view), I fully understood what Anguirel was trying to achieve when he voted for Nilp in an effort to save Eomer. Not knowing Nilp’s Giftedness, I rather agreed that an innocent Eomer was likely to prove more helpful to us than an innocent Nilp. That’s not to clear Ang completely, but, in my view, his vote does not count against him as much as others in the Nilp bandwaggon. Your vote, for example, which had the effect of escalating further the two-horse race developing between Eomer and Nilp, a race which served only the Wolves’ interests, without the redeeming factor of credible reasoning.

And rather than being helpful and productive, my impression was that you were attempting to involve yourself in the discussion without saying anything too controversial. Notably, your analyses followed my categorisation of you as a possible “fly under the radar” Wolf, and, despite looking helpful on the face of it, they didn't appear really to say that much. My impression of you has not changed.

The other Nilp voter that I find particularly suspicious is Firefoot. Like Holby, she too encouraged the Eomer/Nilp two-horse race, by putting Nilp on 4 votes, level with Eomer. Her reasoning for voting for Nilp was lazy. Just the kind of reasoning that a Wolf would use on Day 1 against an easy lynch target. And she has said and done little to aid the passengers’ cause since.

In other news, Gurthang continues to trouble me. This Corinthians reference, for example. I could understand it if he had explained it by saying that it was merely part of the “banter”. But he actually tried to explain it by categorising it as some kind of device to catch people out. To achieve what, exactly? Were you hoping that one of the Lovers might come forward and refute your apparent claim? You say that you were looking for reactions, but it was bound to attract some sort of reaction, and most likely the kind of reaction that most of us who discussed it gave. So I really don’t see what it was designed to achieve. Then there is the early encouragement of the developing Eomer bandwagon. Despite your subsequent (unconvincing) attempts to explain your logic here, it remains weak. Yes, a Wolvish Eomer is dangerous. But an innocent Eomer could have been extremely helpful to us. His intelligence is no reason to eliminate him early. Au contraire, it is a reason to keep him around, at least until there is some kind of evidence pointing to his possible Wolfishness. There was none. And then, despite your early encouragement of the Eomer bandwagon, you end up placing your vote for Diamond. By this time, Nilp was all but condemned, so it was a great time for a Wolf to place a “safe” vote, perhaps even a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Turning to Glirdan’s analyses, I have known him to indulge in these in the past. Personally, I don’t find analyses such as this particularly helpful, and they can be used by Wolves to appear helpful while saying little of use. And I find some of Glirdan’s analysis rather wide of the mark. His case against Taliesin, for example, I find entirely unconvincing, since there was ample reason for Taliesin credibly to change his mind and decide to vote for Eomer after all, given what had occurred in the intervening period (more teling, perhaps, is the fact that Taliesin's vote had no effect on the outcome, and so might be regarded as a safe Wolfish vote). He is concerned over TGWBS’ expressed desire that Men and Wolves should live in harmony, yet this was clearly part of the “in character” banter. And he finds Diamond’s early case against Eomer consistent and well-reasoned, despite the fact that it was based purely on past history and Eomer had not even posted at that point. Yet I don’t think it likely that Glirdan is guilty. Guileless, perhaps, but not guilty. I think it unlikely that a Wolfish Glirdan would have subscribed to the murder of Eomer, given that Eomer had voted for him.

Finally, to Morm’s case against Anguirel. It has merit, I will admit, but it is purely circumstantial. It is entirely possible that Ang’s comments that morm catgorises as malign were merely the speculations of an innocent on Day 1, with little available in the way of evidence. So, while the case should not be dismissed out of hand, I am concerned that morm saw fit to base such an early vote on it. And I am also concerned over the certainty with which he is expressing his views. That said, he is too “in yer face” surely, even for morm, to be a Wolf.

In conclusion, my main suspicions currently lie with Gurthang, Holbytlass and Firefoot, although I think it unlikely that both Holby and Firefoot are Wolves.

I am also wary of Diamond, Durelin and morm.

Apologies, as always, for the length of this post, but it’s probably the last chance I will get to post until much later in the Day.

[the guy who be short]

SpM = Sense. Good.
Glirdan = Not sense. Good.

Eomer = dead. Cast suspicion on voters. Should look at those who voted neither Nilp nor Eomer - the wolves want us to focus on these.

Mmm.

[Findëasëa]

Jenny-
Apparently, looking good makes me look bad.

Why did I put blame on Form? Because he deliberately said he thought neither Eomer nor Nilp were guilty, then made the vote that made saving them impossible.

I was not saying that you blaming Form specifically would help you. If you were a wolf employing this tactic to make yourself look good, it would have been easy for you to throw the blame on any subsequent voter who didn’t follow your plan.

Also, I do think that taking actions that make you look innocent should be looked upon as suspicious. The other actions that you took yesterday did strike me as those of an innocent, but this one situation really struck me as a setup. Appearing innocent may benefit everyone, but it benefits the wolves the most, so it logically follows that actions such as the ones that you took should be examined more closely.

[Lalaith]

I've been reading through everything, and I find myself in the rather ludicrous position of, like the White Queen in Alice, believing six impossible things before breakfast. Lots of the theories made sense as I read them - which makes no sense as many of them contradict each other. For example, Gurthang and SpM.
I really need to do a crew appraisal, to get my thoughts straight if nothing else, and will do so later today if I have time.
For the time being, a few randomish comments.

All this discussion of who posts first: this does actually depend far more on the time zone of the mod /starting time, relative to the player, than on role.

Too many people who should know better, eg Caran, seem to think that Eomer could only have been mistaken for a Seer if he'd mentioned a wolf, when he could just as easily have been singled out through naming an innocent. I actually wondered myself, if he was the Seer, because of the way he talked about Nilp.

I think Glirdan's analyses threw up a couple of interesting points, particularly about Taliesin and Rune.
I've got to go, more later.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Anguirel and Mormegil:Mormegil's case against Anguriel is very interesting indeed. The contradiction he notices is on of those tings that you either discover because you have played some games with this person and clearly can see the change in play. This does not mean that they are wolves, but it is good base for a suspicion. However it can also be something you discover, because you are a wolf and (in my opinion) have to look very close at each post to find something you can use. This would be a good case for a wolf, if Anguriels style of play has changed then other experienced players will notice it as well and thus it will not reflect that bad upon the one who started it. Since I cannot remember if I have played with Anguirel before, I cannot say which of these it is. Of cause it is plausible that they are just two innocents who is on the wrong track. Right now I lean towards thinking that one of them is a wolf, but for now I would not be able to tell you who. I shall therefore not cast my vote for any of them today, but they will be on top of my list of people to watch closely.

Glirdan- I cannot get a read on at all.

Lhuna - For now I think her inoccent, but this is more or less just based on a gut feeling.

SPM- I will need to see some heavy evidence against him before I will consider voting for him. Sure he is very dangourus as a wolf, but also very helpfull as inoccent.

Holby and Firefoot- After SPM's post (157) I too have come to suspect them, however, there is the chance that they are just like me. Not good at making the big analyse. I will need to read a bit more into each of their post's before making a desition. Both a candidates for my vote to day. . .

TGWBS- Just seems to be a bit crooked to me, but again it is mostly a gut fealing. He to is a possible to atract my vote today.

Jenny- I will not vote for today, as I said earlier.

As it looks now. my vote will likely go to:

TGWBS
Holby
Firefoot
or as a distand candidate Glirdan

[Findëasëa]

I looked through what has happened so far and have recorded some general impressions.

Durelin - She has given no solid opinions or ideas, but this is consistent with behavior that she has exhibited in past games. She did vote for a (now) proven innocent. She later stated that she thought her vote for Nilp was a meaningless throwaway vote. I am not sure that a wolf would say something that could possibly attract a lot of negative attention.

Caranlondien – So far she has acted reasonably. She, as usual, has been helpful and made some insightful comments. She did vote for Jenny with very little reasoning. On day 2 she gave a few opinions about people, but nothing too strong. Overall, she seems innocent to me so far.

Lhunardawen – She only posted once, giving a list of random accusations and then voted for Eomer. This could be an example of a wolf using expectations of how they normally act to hide true motivations or it could just be that she had little time.

JennyHallu – I find her actions to be mostly innocent so far. She tried to call the village to the matter at hand when people were staying off topic and then discussed some serious points. All of her actions, except those surrounding the end of the votes, seem pretty honest to me. I don’t feel that my concerns about the single instance are enough to warrant a vote yet.

Lalaith – In her posts on day one she gives some abstract ideas and helpful suggestions to people. She is against both bandwagons, and votes for Form. I still find her very suspicious, she has contributed, but her contributions are safe. She took no risks and seems to be trying to hide in the background so as to not risk suspicion.

Diamond18 - I am really not sure what to think of her at this point. She has not really made any serious points or observations. From past experience, I know that she enjoys the fun aspect of day 1. From what she has said so far toDay, it seems that she also has been busy. I am slightly concerned about her, because she had the time to go back and make the list of all of the roles of the people who posted first in earlier games but she hasn’t really posted many opinions or ideas about what is going on in this village. The fact that she spent over an hour defending herself against a single comment seems kind of strange. (although, admittedly, the outcome was very informative and interesting).

Firefoot – Her uncommitted vote that put Nilp at 4 votes seemed strange to me. She seems to fit in a similar position as Lalaith. She has acted safely. She volunteers helpful information, but nothing specific about her opinion. She defends her vote for Nilp, saying that he was as good of a person to vote for as any. I am not sure that a wolf would vote in a bandwagon on day one, or give as little justification.

Kath- Nothing to go on as of yet.

Gurthang – He makes some remarks about how Eomer should be lynched early if at all. He also uses a verse in the bible to see who will react. On day two he comments that it is almost good controversial character is gone(Eomer). I think that he might be a little more careful if he was a wolf.

TGWBS- He has only posted twice. He suggested that we ought to not look at the Eomer or Nilp bandwagons, as the wolves were probably counting on this. This point is worth consideration. I don’t really feel he is acting particularly guilty or innocent.

I am going to go back and look at some of the people that I haven't looked at yet.

[Kath]

Well, I'm here, and my day has been much better However to morm I say - no way! I don't care if Eomer died you don't get me.

On the matter of Eomer's death, that was a surprise. With all the suspicion surrounding him yesterDay he'd have seemed a good candidate to leave alive so that they village would talk about him all Day. Had we ended up doing that we'd likely have lynched him and so killed an innocent. So the only reason I can think of is that they thought him the Seer.

Jenny's post 'I TOLD YOU SO' makes me a little suspicious of her. If she was so certain there are only two options. She is either the Seer or a wolf. If she was the Seer I don't believe she would make that so obvious, so I'm leaning towards her guilt.

Ah, must go, back later. I'm only as far as post 127 at the moment as I'm playing catch-up. I'll continue in an hour or so when I get back.

[Durelin]

The one time I don't vote for SPM... *looks around* good, no one's quite out to lynch me yet.

Personally, I think Eomer was killed because the wolves were feeling cocky. And I mean...they have reason to, for now.

Kinda and 'in your face' move by the wolves...which makes me think that the wolves have a good sense of humour.

Well...that doesn't tell me much. Except I know that Diamond definitely seems the type to pull something like that. But she's by no means alone.

I don't see her as very guilty.

Anguirel's very suspicious. I'm with morm on this one. His vote of Nilp in an attempt to save Eomer seems like a balancing out. That's why I'm also suspicious of Taliesin. It would be interesting if there were two wolves who voted for Nilp and two who voted for Eomer.

Staying under the radar might have come better not voting for either of those two, but it was all silliness anyway. And staying in the silliness on Day 1 I'd say keeps you rather 'under the radar.'

I think Holbytlass is a good candidate for wolfishness because: 1. her posts are always somehow attempts to analyze. 2. her vote for Nilp to tie up the vote...yeah, I know, she knew she would be in the hotseat for that.

And then there's Rune, an Eomer voter. He's posted just enough to stay involved, but not enough to draw attention to himself. His need for an early vote itself is not incriminating at all, and completely understandable, and it is also understandable that he make a rather random vote, but...why Eomer when he already had one vote? If you're gonna make a random vote why not at least make it a bit even or fair...

And then there's Taliesin. His vote made no sense, except to tie it up when it didn't matter. Perhaps to make it look prettier.

So there we have it: 2 Nilp and two Eomer voters.

Anguirel and Holby

and

Rune and Taliesin.

Maybe not the best reasoning, but it's all I have.

Perhaps I should be suspicious of Saucy, though...I'm suspicious of the very person he voted for yesterday, and he's much more amusing than usual. Something might be up.

I'll be back... I'll probably vote for one of those four. Though maybe SPM just for old time's sake.

Edit: Cross-posted with Kath and Firefoot.

[Lhunardawen]

*wipes tears*

Okay, so Eomer's dead. Sadly, I haven't the time to say much toDay. Does anyone have some of that awful fireflower thing that cured a guy named Eustace Clarence Scrubb of seasickness? I find it difficult to think well while feeling nauseous...

*runs to the railing to do a reverse-digestion process*

But wait. Really, Anguirel, I resent that. Cowardice indeed. I was merely living up to a pre-boarding, uh, promise of sorts. Never had the intention of having him killed...maybe...

But anyways, my pet theory for the Day is that Rune is a wolf. He followed an innocent's - in this case, sweet little me - vote without almost a second thought, and the next Day he's all sorry that his votee died during the Night. And these gut feelings are scary. I use gut feelings, too, and I am scary. And that list...form without substance. Mmhm.

Don't bother about Jenny - she's innocent. It's fairly obvious.

Here goes nothing:

++FIREFOOT

She's the wolf-Lover.