Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Holby

Since Eomer's death and him being innocent, this theory of Jenny being a wolf defending wolf is a moot point, and proven not to be.

I am quite aware of this Holby. I was just saying it was a wierd thing to say. When ever I encounter a statement I don't understand I comment on it, as it can be usefull later in the game.

It seems like I have come under suspicion from quite a few people. I cannot defend my vote with other than I told before I cast it. . . I was in a hurry and Eomer seemed as good a choise as anybody.

I found Firefoot latest contribution quite usefull, it could of course just be because of SPM's comment about flying under the radar that this is postet, but I doubt it. Anyways I will not vote Firefoot today.

That only leav Glirdan and Hobly on my list. . .

++Holbytlass

Mostly because I know she is capable of more than she has shown and I always find this a bit suspicious.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have succeeded only in confusing myself today. And everyone else's contributions, while manily solid, have not helped clarify anything for me. But now I must vote if I am not to miss tonight's beautiful game on the magical box.

That being the case, I will revert to my original main suspects of the day: Gurthang, Holbytlass and Firefoot.

Gurthang's defence has somewhat assuaged my concerns over him as, based on my experience of his past endeavours, it rings true. Which leaves Firefoot and Holby. I still believe that one of them is the Nilp-voting Wolf. I am less sure as to which one it is, but Firefoot has come across to me as the more likely of the two to be innocent. So I will stick with the choice that I made yesterday.

+ + HOLBYTLASS

Incidentally:

Originally Posted by Firefoot

<Okay, I don't really feel like doing this for Ang or tgwbs, either. No summaries for them, just reflections as I go along>

You know, I much prefer that to a blow-by-blow account of what each viallger has said. I usually skim through that kind of analysis because, if I want to check what someone has said, I can look at their posts myself. I much prefer to read people's impressions of others. And I suspect that kind of analysis is much harder for a Wolf to hide within.

[Kath]

Ugh, well. I'm going to keep Lhuna on my suspect list because it was just such a weird thing to do.

However, I need to vote now because I may not be here later so:

++JENNY

Because I have been suspicious of her all day for her surety over Eomer and Nilp yesterDAy, but I don't think she is the Seer because making herself so obvious so early isn't a smart thing to do, and we've never really had an explanation from her over that other than 'I'm clever so I know'.

[Caranlondien]

Despite my absence for much of toDay (I hate dial-up internet...) I too must vote soon. I've read over what's been going on, and a few things have looked interesting to me.

First, I agree with SpM (whom I trust, for now) about Gurthang, in that his defense of himself seemed genuine. I also agree that there is probably a wolf among the Nilp-voters. Anguirel I just don't find that suspicious. Holby I know nothing about, Firefoot and Durelin I know a bit about, but none of them strikes me as particularly wolvish. Maybe I should go re-read their posts...

I don't know about this whole Jenny thing. Before it seemed like her behavior was just her being true to her personality, but I have to admit her words have sounded increasingly odd. Still, I tend to think she's innocent.

Today (RL) I'm not finding morm as suspicious. Perhaps the shock of his immediate vote for Anguirel has worn off a bit, but I'm still wary of him.

Hmm, I'll be back in a bit, after looking more closely at the Nilp-voters.

[Caranlondien]

I find myself trusting Durelin. She seems normal, and sensible. I have to admit I'm hesitant to vote for Holby just because of the bandwagon that it would likely start. But I don't know about Firefoot; her long analysis-posts aren't what I would expect from a wolf, as wolves tend to be a bit overconfident at this point. Then again, with a traitor in the wolves' midst, they may be just as interested in analyses.

Hum-ho, what to do...

Oh, as for Kath, I don't think she's a wolf. She dared not to vote yesterDay, and I don't think she'd be so bold as a wolf.

And despite SpM's corroboration of the fact that once upon a time Glirdan did analyses all the time, I can't help but continue to feel nervous about his change in behavior. I'm hesitant to go strongly on this, though, because if he is innocent, analyses are welcome, and I wouldn't want to discourage him from them. Anyway, just keeping him on my radar.

[Caranlondien]

1. morm-->Ang(Ang 1)
2. Fin-->Lalaith(Ang 1, Lal 1)
3. Lhuna--Firefoot(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1)
4. Lalaith-->Formendacil(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1)
5. Rune-->Holby(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 1)
6. Saucy--> Holby(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2)
7. Kath --> Jenny(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2, Jenny 1)
8. Glirdan-->Lhuna(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 1)
9. Ang-->Lhuna(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 2)

[Caranlondien]

++Firefoot

Since my last post (or was it the one before that?) it's occurred to me that huge analyses are an easy way for a wolf to hide. Though Firefoot's been giving her opinions, not just summaries, she's giving them in large doses, so people might be less likely to be able to pick out wolvish hints.

[JennyHallu]

Rune
Durelin
TGWBS
Taliesin
Firefoot
Holby
Formendacil
Fin
Gurthang

Of these, these are those I'm considering voting for today:
Rune
Durelin
Taliesin
Holby
Formendacil

Why just these? Mostly because I am less familiar with them, and thus they make me more nervous than the others. I'll be back in about half an hour, with whatever analysis I have time for and a vote before the deadline. Luckily, I don't work next Day, and should have time for more thought and analysis. (HA! Not in my life! I spend only a few moments of Sundays at home, and will be voting hours early!)

[Firefoot]

Voting so far:

Ang – 1 (Morm 1)
Lalaith – 1 (Findeasea 2)
Firefoot – 1 (Lhuna 3)
Formen – 1 (Lalaith 4)
Holby – 2 (Rune 5, SpM 6)
Jenny - 1 (Kath 7)

Looks likely to be about as spread out as yesterDay's...

Looking at people who voted for neither Nilp nor Eomer (I'm thinking there is at least one wolf in the bunch), I've come up with three rough categories (based on reasoning above):

Suspicious
Lalaith
Formen

Borderline
Morm
Glirdan
Gurthang
Kath

Innocent-ish
SpM
Caran
Jenny
Findeasea

Ironically enough, Lalaith and Formen were the ones who voted for each other... I would say that Lalaith is more suspicious to me than Formen, and she is more likely to get my vote at this point than he is.

I don't really want to lynch any of the borderline people: Morm in case he's the seer, Glirdan for lack of real evidence, Gurthang because I'm just not at all convinced he's a wolf, and Kath because she's hardly been here.

Looking at people who did vote for Eomer or Nilp, they're pretty much all in my borderline list, with tgwbs, Holby, and Lhuna leaning innocent, although Lhuna is slipping. Maybe I've just forgotten how random (lhunatic-ish) she can be. Maybe living way over there (*gestures vaguely*) just does something to you...

You know, I much prefer that to a blow-by-blow account of what each viallger has said. I usually skim through that kind of analysis because, if I want to check what someone has said, I can look at their posts myself. I much prefer to read people's impressions of others. And I suspect that kind of analysis is much harder for a Wolf to hide within.

That's probably true... I usually like to do a bit of summarizing more for my own good, to get thoughts together. But seeing how well Ang's and tgwbs's went, I'm not sure it's really necessary. Takes less time, too...

[Glirdan]

I'm back and there are a few things I'd like to adress before I go and vote (curse you studying!! ).

So, the vast majority of the time an Ordo is a first to post. Not all that surprising, is it? After all, Ordos alway outnumber everyone else. But, most importantly, this rather decries that whole myth that Wolves often post first.

If I wanted to be really thourough I could track the posting order of everyone out of all the games, to see how often one or more wolves are in the first, say, 10 posters. But I'm not actually as insane as I look. At the moment, anyway. Because that would probably yield some very interesting numbers.(Di)

You know, it would be rather informing. Yet, I don't think any of us are quite up to the challenge of doing that at this point...

Highly suspected Glirdan and Caran for low-level sneakery and throwaway votes (indeed spent some time deliriously murmuring "Glirdan or Caran, Caran or Glirdan...", poor chap. Maybe they were his last words.)

I noticed this to. I think he was probably just deciding out of us two who he should vote for. And to clear something up, my vote for Kath yesterDay was completely random. I just looked at all the occupations and her's kind of jumped out at me and said that I could use it as a random vote. You see, unlike my earlier ancestors, I am not one to bandwaggon, even on Day 1's.

SpM = Sense. Good.
Glirdan = Not sense. Good.(Engels)

Care to elaborate for us?

I think Holbytlass is a good candidate for wolfishness because: 1. her posts are always somehow attempts to analyze. 2. her vote for Nilp to tie up the vote...yeah, I know, she knew she would be in the hotseat for that.(Durelin)

These are great reasonings behind Holby's guilt, especially her vote for Nilp. We all knew she knew she would be in the hotseat for it and that could be why a Wolvish Holby would do it, thinking that because she can use the "I knew it would put me in a bad situation" excuse, it would leave her safe and not under suspicion. Definetly worth looking at.

And then there's Rune, an Eomer voter. He's posted just enough to stay involved, but not enough to draw attention to himself. His need for an early vote itself is not incriminating at all, and completely understandable, and it is also understandable that he make a rather random vote, but...why Eomer when he already had one vote? If you're gonna make a random vote why not at least make it a bit even or fair...(Durelin)

I like how you brought up the fact that Rune has posted little. That really worries me because Rune is normally a really vocal player and has great theories. I'm not getting that this time.

I'll be back with another list (not an analysis this time I promise).

[Anguirel]

My examination of Findeasea's posts, as it happens, did not justify my feeling of vague unrest about her. The only unusual thing she's done is to vote with interesting consistency on Lalaith, but Lalaith herself seems to have done the same with Formendacil.

While I wasn't especially comfortable with Holby, I will not vote for her as her campaign appears to be gathering quite enough momentum without me. This leaves Kath, Lhuna and Firefoot; Firefoot perhaps slightly more because her justification of her Nilp vote was really seriously thin. But then, Kath didn't vote at all...damnation...

Oh, now is the hour for blood and bandwagons
Mid howling of lynch-mobs and trading of blows,
Alas for the days when we drained back our flagons,
For now a bitter North wind blows...

[Glirdan]

Here's a list of the amount of posts thus far:

The Saucepan Man 19
JennyHallu 16
Anguirel 13
Glirdan 13
Lalaith 12
Findëasëa 10
Gurthang 9
Diamond18 9
Firefoot 9
Holbytlass 9
Rune Son of Bjarne 9
Durelin 9
Cailín 8
mormegil 8
Taliesin 6
Kath 6
Eomer of the Rohirrim 6
Caranlondien 6
Formendacil 6
Nilpaurion Felagund 4
Nogrod 2
the guy who be short 2
Lhunardawen 2

The ones bolded are the Eomer voters, the ones in italics are the Nilp voters. The ones who are dead are underlined.

Now split it into three groups (eliminating those who are dead and keeping the same format above [Eomer=bold, Nilp=italics]):

Low Posters: 0-6
Taliesin
Kath
Caran
Form
TGWBS
Lhuna

Middle Posters: 8-12
Lalaith
Findëasëa
Gurthang
Diamond18
Firefoot
Holbytlass
Rune Son of Bjarne
Durelin
mormegil

High Posters: 13+
The Saucepan Man
JennyHallu
Anguirel
Glirdan

(I realise how uneven this is and if you have a better way of listing it, be my guest)

Now, if we look at the Low Group first, we have three Eomer voters: Lhuna, TGWBS and Taliesin.

Middle Group, we have the other two Eomer voters (Di and Rune) and three of the Nilp voters (Durelin, Firefoot and Holby)

And in the High Group, the last Nilp voter, Ang.

So, if we follow the old age theory that there is at least one in each group, I think we can draw a list like this:

Quiet: Lhuna or Taliesin
Average: Rune, Holby or Firefoot
High: Ang

Now, it is possible that there is another wolf out of those, but it is also more likely that there is another Wolf amongst the quiet voters.

And now my thoughts are all muddled together...great...Wait, there is reasoning behind this madness...I just need to try and extract it from my brain... AHAH! I think I got it.

Okay, first, I'll bring up an updated voting list:

1. morm-->Ang(Ang 1)
2. Fin-->Lalaith(Ang 1, Lal 1)
3. Lhuna--Firefoot(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1)
4. Lalaith-->Formendacil(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1)
5. Rune-->Holby(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 1)
6. Saucy--> Holby(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2)
7. Kath --> Jenny(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2, Jenny 1)

(Just realised Fea did this earlier, however, this goes along with my plan).

Seeing as there are already three of the Nilp voters up there, I think one more person from the Eomer voters should be added and preferably, I'd like it to be either Taliesin or Lhuna for these reasons:

Taliesin: Has defended himself yet his sudden switch of mind really doesn't put me at ease.

Lhuna: Has barely posted and voted with absolutely no proof or reasonable evidence behind them.

Of the two, Lhuna looks more guilty. Therefore,

++Lhuna

If you need me, I should be around until the end of the Day.

[Anguirel]

I'm going for Lhuna after all, not Firefoot. Her grudge against Eomer and her leisurely attitude are simply too suitable a disguise. I'm sure she would have delighted in last night's kill and expected to be to obvious a choice to be picked to avenge it.

Glirdan's vote for her just now is unfortunate for me in a way, but I was resolved on this course before he posted.

++LHUNA