Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[mormegil]

Durelin -- Innocent
Caranlondien -- Innocent
Holbytlass -- Unknown
Findëasëa -- Innocent
Kath – Likely innocent
Lalaith -- Unsure
Diamond18 – Possibly guilty
Firefoot -- Guilty

Gurthang -- Guilty
Rune Son of Bjarne – Unsure
Taliesin – Unsure
Saucepan Man – So many things I could say but won’t. I could think either way on him
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel) – Uncertain but possibly guilty
Glirdan -- Guilty
Friedrich Engels –(TGWBS) Guilty

I still hold that Glirdan is guilty and being alive today on solidifies my belief. I think that the first night Glirdan went bold and killed off Eomer but when it was generally believed that I was not the seer he didn’t kill me because it would only make him look real bad. Glirdan is the type that will take some small risks, killing Eomer, but won’t go for the gusto, killing me, because that would be killing two people who suspected him in succession.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Well, now I can at least feel safe voting the way I had been intending to... I don't think either Lhuna or Holby is a wolf and am glad I don't have to vote for either. Even if one of them seems guaranteed to be lynched, there doesn't seem any way for me to change that. I doubt Formen will pick up the necessary votes.

++Lalaith

This combined with some other observations with a strong ‘gut feeling’ are telling me that Firefoot is guilty. You could have made a difference in the vote. It seems to much like “okay one of these two innocents are doomed and for the record I think both are innocent.” In fact this might be a good wolf-on-wolf vote at a non-critical time.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

His early vote for Glirdan yesterday was not in itself suspicious, but the fact that he continues gunning for him today is really odd. I also noticed that he said nothing against Anguirel (well, I just skimmed quickly, but I didn't see anything.) yesterday, but suddenly came out and voted for him today. He might be the seer, but I just don't think so.

This came when he voted for me. Odd, I don’t remember ‘gunning’ for Glirdan yesterday. In fact I simply mentioned him in passing that I thought he was a wolf. That’s not ‘gunning’. If anything you could say that I was gunning for Anguirel, who insultingly calls me ‘special’.

Rune just has the feel and seems to follow what I would expect in him being a wolf.

TGWBS, when innocent tends to demand things like answers and responses but he seems detached and I think so because he's possibly guilty.

[Anguirel]

Awww, morm, do not take my quip so deeply to heart. I have no real wish to insult you. Without you no Werewolf attack could be fully complete...

It seems to me that more evidence is likely to be found in last evening's lynching than in tonight's kill, which is really fairly self-explanatory and leaves little trail. Did the wolves keep their hands clean from Lhuna's death or spur it on? If they encouraged it, why? Who did she suspect? Who suspected, or pretend to suspect, her?

[I'm out for lunch so won't be able to enlarge on this as soon as I'd like.]

[Kath]

Well, not an entirely unexpected death, but even though she took Form with her I'm glad she was the Hunter and not the Seer. At this rate we're going to need them even more than usual!

I'm not sure that there's much point in looking back over Jenny's posts for her suspicions as it seems more likely that the wolves killed her for her Gifted hints rather than who she suspected, but I'll do it anyway.

Post 22 - in character but asks that we focus on the threat a bit more, and mentions that at least one wolf is likely to have already posted before her. This was later argued against with Di's list I think.

Post 44 - again complains about too much in character nonsense. Mentions some suspicion of Sauce, Gurthang, Nilp and Di. Except for Sauce none of those were actually serious, and even the suspicion of Sauce wasn't strong. The talk over Di was a reference to the film too so unlikely to have been serious.

Post 75 - as in fact she explains here in answer to Holby's questioning. She explains why she was worried over Glirdan, and with good reason actually.

Post 85 - says she is absolutely against the Eomer and Nilp bandwagons. Tells people off for grudge-lynching Eomer, which is fair enough, it gets irritating.

Post 86 - implicitly tells us not to vote for Nilp, which of course she would knowing his role, and also insists we don't vote Eomer. Then votes Holby in the hope of getting the rest of the village to follow her to save the other two. This is odd. I think she must have believed Eomer to be the Seer, as otherwise she wouldn't have worked so hard to save him. That's the only excuse I can see for her trying to instigate a bandwagon against another villager, as otherwise she couldn't be sure that she wasn't about the get the Seer lynched. The vote for Holby did have some reasoning at least.

Post 89 - cross with Form for not going along with her plan and reiterates that a mistake is being made.

Post 92 - cross about Day 1's.

Post 94 - continues to try and save Nilp, suggesting everyone votes either for Lalaith or Holby.

Post 97 - again tells us Nilp is innocent.

Post 127 - gloats a little. Has Form at the top of her suspect list for his dooming Nilp/Eomer, well, this could explain why the wolves killed her. If they believed she was the Hunter and knew Form was innocent and top of her list it wouldn't be a huge leap to think she'd take him with her. Also suspects Gurthang and Firefoot.

Post 130 - apologises to Holby for trying to get her lynched. First says it was only to save Nilp/Eomer, then claims she was actually suspicious of her as well.

Post 149 - explains her suspicion of Form, of him being the one that made it impossible to save Nilp/Eomer after saying he thought them both innocent.

Post 168 - refutes my opinions with fair reasoning as it seems I missed out some rather obvious options. However, then says none of those options are actually the case it's just because she's clever. Claims the wolves will be within her list of Rune, Durelin, Guy, Taliesin, Firefoot, Holby, Form, Fin and Gurthang.

Post 176 - claims she wasn't hinting as to her role.

Post 184 - helps explain Lhuna's behaviour and asks whether the Seer can see the identities of the Lovers.

Post 200 - repeats her earlier list and has Rune, Durelin, Tali, Holby and Form as her main suspects due to being less familiar with them. Says she'll be back with an analysis and a vote and won't be around much the next Day.

Post 202 - says she had no time for the analysis and votes Form, presumably on the earlier reasoning. Again explains why if the wolves thought her the Hunter they had no qualms about her taking one of them with her.

Post 203 - complains about the lack of voting.

Well, assuming that the wolves had no fear about killing her, it seems fair to suggest that either very few or none of the people she mentioned were wolves, which in that case makes everyone on that list of hers an unlikely suspect.

Unfortunately with her death I lost my only real suspect, so I'm going to have to start all over again

Right at this second I'm finding myself agreeing with the suspicion around TGWBS, he has said very little and what he has said has been of very little use. Since I appear to have some time on my hands (procrastination ) I may take a look at him as well.

[Kath]

TGWBS:

Post 63 - some in character nonsense about overthrowing the capitalists, in this case Eomer, Ang and SPM, followed by a vote for Eomer. As it was so early I doubt this was intended to start a bandwagon really, but the earliness itself is odd. TGWBS is in the same timezone as I am and as I don't believe there was a reason for this early vote (correct me if I'm wrong there) it does seem odd. This was his only post Day 1.

Post 158 - says SPM is making sense which is good, and Glirdan is making no sense which is good. The logic sort of makes sense, but it would have been nice to have a bit more reasoning behind those statements, or any reasoning in fact. Says Eomer's death makes those who voted for him look suspicious, or at least that's what the wolves want us to think. Not sure if he's making a point there or just mentioning it.

No vote, apparently there was a reason however.

Post 220 - says if he were more conscious he would come up with theories.

Post 225 - explains what he meant by his comment on Glirdan and says he presumes him to be innocent. Says he'll be back in 14 hours.

And that's it! I'm pretty sure it's been 14 hours yet we've seen nothing more from him, and what we have seen so far has had absolutely no substance to it. I don't think I've ever seen him play this way before and it's worrying me. He could be a wolf trying to fly under the radar, he could be a Gifted trying to do the same, or he could just be an innocent being irritating. I hope to see more from him in the hours leading up to the deadline so I can work out which of these I think he actually is.

Now, I'm supposed to be revising so I don't fail psychology completely, so I must be off.

[Glirdan]

I am back and I must say that I'm quite shocked at how little people are conversing right now... CURSE YOU TIMEZONES!!!

Now, on to something else. Is it just me or is morm getting bolder and bolder as each Day goes by? Here's something I find really odd:

This came when he voted for me. Odd, I don’t remember ‘gunning’ for Glirdan yesterday. In fact I simply mentioned him in passing that I thought he was a wolf.(morm)

Haha! You're funny! Not gunning for me yesterDay! Are you kidding!? All you did yesterDay was attck Firefoot, Ang and myself and now Ang is not one of your "I'm absolutely sure they are guilty" ones. You're confusing me. And because of that, I don't know what to think of you. I think you could be innocent because of all the attacking you've done. You've been very persistent, I'll give you that. But you could be a Wolf. There's just something about you that's not sitting right with me and the fact that you have been gunning for us three makes me even more uneasy.

Here's a theory: Is it possible that Ang and morm are both Wolves and they're going at it to cover up a furry little secret?

Rune's points against TGWBS make me even more suspicious of Engels. Kath's points agains him are good to. Now I'm really suspicious of him. The fact that he's so quiet makes me really uneasy. I'm really quite scared of what he could as a Wolf.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I apologise to Jenny for highlighting her Hunter hints. But I really didn't think her either the Hunter or the Seer, as I would have expected her to sacrifice Eomer to save Nilp in those circumstances. There was little to suggest Eomer was the Seer.

I am not going to be around much today, so I am going to take the opportunity now to give my general impression of my fellow passengers as matters stand:

Diamond: Posted first and, when Glirdan speculated that Wolves often post first, spent a great deal of energy in effectively disproving the point. However, has directed far less energy to actually finding the Wolves. It might be said that she is being unusually unhelpful. Grudge against Eomer was a good way of starting off a bandwaggon against a dangerous opponent, and she only voted with it herself once it was in full swing. Latest post considers withdrawing, implying innocence, yet she decides not to withdraw for now. She may well be a Wolf. Her early and unreasoned vote for me is rather un-Wolf-like, but perhaps they now feel confident enough to start taking a few risks.

Anguirel: After an active first Day has quietened down considerably. Backed off from his Day 1 suspicions of morm rather quickly after morm began to focus on him. Don’t like the way he pointed out that he was resolved to vote for Lhuna before Glirdan’s vote. I thought of saying the same thing after my vote followed Rune’s, but thought it an unnecessary for an innocent, more the sort of thing a Wolf might say. I was inclined to trust him, but now I’m not so sure. His voting record is lousy, although it doesn’t follow from that that he’s a Wolf.

Glirdan: Coming across completely Glirdan-like to me. Which doesn’t mean that he’s not a Wolf. But I just don’t see it.

Durelin: Has acted completely how I would expect her to act (with the exception of a vote for me ). Can’t see anything suspicious about her.

Gurthang: Some of his early comments were strange (and these have been discussed at length previously) and raised my suspicions, although his explanation was persuasive. Nevertheless, his votes have consistently been safe ones, and I still don‘t like the early encouragement of the Eomer bandwaggon on Day 1 (which was not really adequately explained). Still keeping an eye on him.

Kath: Really not a lot to go on, which raises concerns, but not overly so. I think that Kath, as a Wolf, would involve herself much more in the proceedings. Nevertheless, her efforts toDay at stirring a possible TGWBS bandwaggon are of concern.

Rune: Comes across as genuine to me. So either he’s a brilliant dissembler (which I do not dismiss) or he’s innocent (which I think more likely). Although he has been involved in both the "unsuccessful bandwagons” (those against Eomer and Holby), the fact that his involvement was so early makes them rather risky moves for a Wolf in the early Days. The same goes for his early vote today for TGWBS (see my thoughts on TGWBS and him possibly being lined up by the Wolves as today’s lynch victim).

Taliesin: His late vote for Eomer on Day 1 was notable, although he explained it well enough. If either Holby or Firefoot is a Wolf (as I suspect) his vote for Lhuna yesterday could have been an attempt to save one of his fellows. Other than that, I can’t see much reason to suspect him.

Lalaith: Has been contributing, appearing helpful, without taking too many risks. Her quiet competence and undoubted cunning, if a Wolf, does somewhat unnerve me.

Firefoot: A dodgy vote yesterday. Not only was it incredibly safe, but she sought to explain it away. Definitely suspicious.

Caran: Quietly helpful. Could be a cause for concern. As could her early thoughts about TGWBS, which might be seen as an attempt to encourage a bandwaggon against him.

Mormegil: His bold aggressive approach from the off is most un-Wolflike. But if anyone can pull such an approach off, it’s morm. If he is a Wolf, it’s working so far. The fact that he has not yet been killed is a cause for concern, but the same might be said about me (and usually is). He may be right about Anguirel (although he has now somewhat backed off from his Ang position), but I think he’s wrong about Glirdan. This may be a dangerous thing to do, but I am inclined to trust him for now.

Holbytlass: Still my main suspect, since little has happened to alter my original assesment of her. I just get the impression that she is being very careful with her posts. She voted for Lhuna to save herself, thus condemning Lhuna, and it is undoubtedly the case that a Wolf has more reason to save herself than an ordinary villager. Nevertheless, I would probably have done the same if in her position, so it doesn’t really add much, one way or the other.

TGWBS: He hasn’t been around much, but I don’t see much in what he has said to particularly suspect him. The growing case against him toDay seems to be based on his quietness and his ambiguous comments. The former may be forced on him by circumstances. The latter is typical of him. I am suspicious of all the suspicion gathering about him toDay and suspect that there may be a Wolfish plot to have him lynched.

Findesea: I believe her to be innocent because she has shown confusion over the rues twice: on Day 1 with the Lovers, and yesterDay with the Ranger//Hunter/Seer thing. A Wolf would not make such mistakes, so she is either being fiendishly clever or she is innocent. While I don’t doubt her intelligence, her confusion does not suggest Wolfish bluff to me.

So, to conclude:

Prime suspects: Holbytlass, Diamond, Firefoot

Wary of: Anguirel, Gurthang, Lalaith

Don't know: Kath, Taliesin, Caran

Inclined to trust (for now): Glirdan, Durelin, Rune, mormegil, TGWBS, Findesea

I am conscious of the fact that there may be a Wolf among those that I am currently inclined to trust, as my instincts are not the best when it comes to this kind of thing. But I prefer to narrow the field and focus on only a few individuals at a time. Unless something dramatic happens, my vote will most probably go to one of my prime suspects.

[Firefoot]

One thing at least seems fairly certain and that is that Morm is not the seer... I was half-thinking he might be, what with his insistant attacks and immediate votes on the first two Days... but the fact that he's switching around on those attacks (Ang...) would obviously indicate that he did not dream of him.

You could have made a difference in the vote. It seems to much like “okay one of these two innocents are doomed and for the record I think both are innocent.” In fact this might be a good wolf-on-wolf vote at a non-critical time.

I voted with four minutes left in the Day, which meant that any other votes were likely enough to be cross-posted. Even so, my next choice, Form, would have needed two votes (besides mine) to be lynched - with only four people besides me (only one of which had shown any sign of being around), it was highly unlikely that I could have made a difference. I wanted to vote for Lalaith; the only reason I was holding my vote was to make sure that I didn't get lynched. No, I really don't think in that situation that I could have made a difference. You might say, look how much she cares about saving her own skin, that makes her a wolf... innocents care about their own skins, too, you know.

Right now I have no idea what to think of Morm. With how bold he's been playing, he's almost daring us to lynch him. I definitely want to have a closer look at him toDay.

Also, a further look at voting patterns... with four wolves working together, maybe there will be something to see by now.

But all this will be coming in a couple hours... I'm off.

Cross-posting with Sauce.

[Holbytlass]

I'm looking at the vote record of those who have given nonbandwagon careful votes.

Mormegil:Glirdan, Ang (1/1; 1/1)
Suspicious in being first to vote and early on

Findeasea:Lalaith both times(17/2; 2/1)
voted late first DAY but was consistent with early vote on 2nd DAY, not suspicious

Lalaith:Formen both times(4/1; 10/1)
early and mid votes for same person but now a known innocent- a wolf o'course would know that

Glirdan:Kath, Lhuna (4/1; 8/1)
not too suspicious first day vote fairly early 1st DAY, first vote midway for lynchee

SpM:Holby both times (13/1; 6/2)
being consistent for unknown, despite it being myself don't find this too susp

Gurthang:Diamond, Morm(18/1; 16/1)
very suspicious both first LATE votes

Caran:Jenny, Firefoot (11/1; 10/2)
suspicious first vote for now known innocent, mid vote put Firefoot in 3 way tie

Kath:no vote, Jenny (7/1)
although always susp of those who don't vote, was first mid vote for known innocent

No votes 2nd day Diamond TGWBS
always suspicous of nonvoters


suspect list
Gurthang
Mormegil
Caran
TGWBS
Diamond
Kath
EDIT: Lalaith

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kath talking about Jenny

Post 127 - gloats a little. Has Form at the top of her suspect list for his dooming Nilp/Eomer, well, this could explain why the wolves killed her. If they believed she was the Hunter and knew Form was innocent and top of her list it wouldn't be a huge leap to think she'd take him with her. Also suspects Gurthang and Firefoot.

Originally Posted by Same

Post 200 - repeats her earlier list and has Rune, Durelin, Tali, Holby and Form as her main suspects due to being less familiar with them. Says she'll be back with an analysis and a vote and won't be around much the next Day.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well, assuming that the wolves had no fear about killing her, it seems fair to suggest that either very few or none of the people she mentioned were wolves, which in that case makes everyone on that list of hers an unlikely suspect.

Well I somewhat agree with you, but it is interesting to note that Jenny changes her suspicion from Formen, Gurthang and Firefoot to a whole list of people on which Gurthang and Firefoot are not. Yet again another piece to a probably specious puzzle but it makes me further suspect those two.

[Diamond18]

I know, but that's how Saucie always is. Everyone tends to trust him, and a few people just want to get rid of him because he's scary because people want to trust him. But I'm not thinking of lynching him right now. Why? Because of the Jenny thing. Why would he have brought the Hunter thing up if he (as a wolf) was planning to get her that night? He would've left it unspoken, I imagine, unless he was being bold. Possible. But right now, I doubt it.

Actually, that seems very wolfish to me. By broadcasting the possibility, he brought it to the attention of everyone. On purpose. A wolf would do this so that he can later say "Oops, I guess I gave it away to the wolves and that's why they killed her."