Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Anguirel]

Alright. Thanks for that vote summary Firefoot; I'm now going to have a look at it.

Sauce – 1 (Diamond 1)
TGWBS – 1 (Rune 2)
Firefoot – 1 (Morm 3)
Durelin – 2 (Firefoot 4, Holby 11)
Glirdan – 1 (Taliesin 5)
Rune – 3 (Durelin 6, Lalaith 12, Findeasea 16)
Holby – 3 (Sauce 7, Caran 10, Gurthang 15)
Morm – 3 (Glirdan 8, TGWBS 9, Kath 14)
Kath – 1 (Ang 13)

Several things I'm looking for here; those responsible for the extremely wide field; votes for proven innocents; possible wolf-on-wolfers, though with the Lovers around I do imagine they're a bit less likely; and the tie-breakers-who were they really trying to save?

Diamond's Sauce-campaign looks like an innocent's forlorn hope. I did briefly wonder though if they might be none other than the Lovers...I mean, especially if you're not Valier, the Valier-method is about the least effective lynch routine in existence. Well, it's a possibility. An unlikely one though. I exonerate Dread Pirate Audrey for now.

Rune's vote for tgwbs apparently channelled sentiments that no one else shared-except, latterly, morm. They could be right, but I tend to agree with Engels that he's only suspicious when not suspicious. This was cast early-a failed attempt to gather a strong bandwagon? Or just a pronounced suspicion?

morm's vote looks similar. But we know it was cast with no treacherous intent.

Durelin's case was potentially stronger than it was. Many had expressed suspicion of her. Firefoot, then, might be accused of jumping on a widespread feeling. Might just as well though have followed a suspicion she shared. Holby's vote here is clearly self-preservation once more, bringing Durelin's bandwagon and hers level.

I think I'll pass over proven innocent votes.

Rune's bandwagon is one of the most interesting, because to me Durelin's first vote looks the most likely to be wolf-for-wolf. Rune and Durelin had collaborated against Holby, narrowly unsuccessfully, the day before. The transmogrification of this bandwagon into a real force was late and unexpected. Lalaith brought it level with the Holby and Durelin and later morm cases and Fin attempted to break the tie. Lalaith either suspected Rune more than the other candidates, conceivably was in cahoots with Durelin. (That is, if Durelin's vote was not wolf-for-wolf.) Durelin is the lynchpin in this mystery and it's Durelin I most want to find out about (Read, hang) of this lot.

Sauce's vote for Holby was the seventh consecutive bandwagon started in a row and was to be shadowed by an eighth. Sauce loudly bemoaned casting his vote in such a way when things were already so spread out. He also cast it-yet again-for a proven innocent. (I can't talk with Nilp's blood on my hands from Day 1, admittedly.) Wolfpan Man wouldn't have guessed Holby was a Seer, but would be hoping to use her as a scapegoat to avoid another wolf under threat. For I am certain there was one. It's the only way the frenetic voting at the end makes sense. Either Durelin or Rune, in my view, must be hairy. Caran voted for Holby, but regretted it. Her vote set a lot of other events in motion, poor maid. Then Gurthang tried to break the tie...in favour of a proven innocent, we know in retrospect. Tut tut.

But just when things seemed unlikely to get any more crass, up popped the morm bandwagon. Inspired by a panicky "get off my back" vote from Glirdan. Spurred on by mischievous Engels. Sealed by that quintessential Wolf, Kath. This vote really consummates my suspicions of her, which were already active enough yesterday to persuade me at last to vote for her. Were she and Gurthang urging separate causes? Or did they have the same aim in mind? Whichever of them are wolves, they succeeded and poor morm swung, leaving only acrimonious suspicions behind.

And then there was mine. I essentially did what Gurthang had done yesterday, and abstained with a political motive. My vote would have been, out of the leading contenders, almost certainly for Durelin and perhaps we would have retired to bed with yells of victory. It was not to be. In my defence, I did not mean to be ineffective. I wanted, and still want, Kath lynched. I cross-posted with a lot of votes which in my arrogance I was still hoping to garner.

So:

Of all this grievous company
'Tis Kath and Durelin I most
Fear and suspect; but second, the
Admiral, with his English roast,
Gurthang, Rune, constitute the rear
With Firefoot lurking somewhere near.

[Findëasëa]

Hmm, I have been looking over people’s posts for a while. Some points have stuck out to me as interesting.

Glirden: I find it interesting that he spent so much effort making a post by post analysis of five of his suspects on day two, Despite the fact that he claims he has done this in the past, it seems odd that he would use such a tactic on day two, when most of his analysis consists of him saying that posts was largely irrelevant or that he was not sure what something meant. I would assume that Glirden would be aware of this fact. It might be an easy way for a wolf to write a whole lot and attempt to sound useful, without risking doing or saying anything that could be harmful to him in the future.

the guy who be short: He has not really done anything to affect the village one way or another, except his recent suggestion that the three proven innocents lead the village. I don’t find this particularly suspicious, as in a similar situation in the recent past, he reacted the same way. Overall, he does not stand out as suspicious to me today. I agree that his quietness is odd, but at least if he is a wolf this means that he is at a disadvantage, as he cannot easily try to sway the opinion of the village without drawing attention to himself and perhaps his friends.

Durelin- She does not seem suspicious to me, she just seems to be acting as she usually does. I have never been in a village with a wolfish Durelin, so if anyone has any insights as to how she, or any other players for that matter, might act, that could be very useful.

I will be back in a bit with more opinions in a while if I haven't mistakenly fallen asleep...

[the guy who be short]

Taliesin's list: Saucepan Man
Gurthang
Glirdan

Caran: I still feel most uneasy about Kath and Gurthang... I'm less suspicious of Kath now than I was when I started doing the analysis. Something about her posts, particularly those about her suspicions of Jenny, seems genuine.

Fin: Of everyone in the village at this point, the three that look most suspicious to me are Lalaith, Rune and Gurthang.


I'm sorry I haven't had time to come to my own rational conclusions today (we're repainting my room at short notice...) so I have to go on whim and trust.

Gurthang doesn't feel right to me, I can't explain why. It's the same way SpM and durelin feel innocent. In addition, he is the only one the three known innocents have all mentioned as suspicious.

Before it is too late, with the sincerest hope of starting a bandwagon,

++GURTHANG

[Findëasëa]

1. Diamond --> SPM (SPM 1)
2. Ang --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 1)
3. Caran --> Lalaith (SPM 1, Rune 1, Lalaith 1)
4. Durelin --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 2, Lalaith 1)
5. SPM --> Rune (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1)
6. Kath --> Glirden (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1)
7. TGWBS --> Gurthang (SPM 1, Rune 3, Lalaith 1, Glirden 1, Gurthang 1)

[Firefoot]

To clarify: by all means, I want to know what our known (presumed) innocents have to say. But I don't want to vote off a list just because we know the authors are innocent. I'll take their opinions into consideration, but I'd rather make up my own mind.

After looking at Glirdan's posts, I'm also becoming a bit more suspicious of him. I find his vote for Lhuna quite odd, being that when he analyzed Eomer's five voters, Lhuna was at the bottom of his list. Sure, she hadn't contributed much, but if he's more suspicious of other people, why not vote for them? None of them had votes yet, so it's not like that would be an issue. He does a lot of nudging suspicion onto other people. Other than that, he's just sort of there. I did not find much in his posts overly remarkable; too many of his comments on posts say "nothing suspcious/odd here". He's making me sorta nervous.

[Lalaith]

I'm torn between voting Rune and Gurthang here.
On the one hand, I suspected Rune yesterday and he's done little to assuage my suspicions today, quite the contrary in fact.
On the other, I thought Gurthang came out the dodgiest in my analysis earlier today, and I've never been entirely comfortable with him this game.

[Lalaith]

Ok, I've looked over my analysis again and I still think Gurthang looks dodgy.

++GURTHANG

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

So I am back. . . and it looks like I will be this days lynch.

++The Saucepan Man

As he looks to be my best shot at surviving.

I will not bother with a defence, it is not because I want to die. I just have alot of RL things going on right now. (things I did not now would emerge when I signed up)
If I live it is great and I will try to be here as much as possible.


P.S. It took me a long time typing this in as I was chatting as well and therefor cross posted with the 2 previous posts.

[Glirdan]

Gah!! Who to vote? Who to vote...

Okay, I'm going with what my gut tells me to do.

++Saucy

He's too dangerous as a Wolf, he's been flying under the radar quite a bit this time around and Diamond's analysis along with my gut feeling have brought me to this. I just hope I'm right this time.

[Glirdan]

I've came to the conclusion that there is no point (in my eyes anyway) to continue my anaylsis of Ang. Nothing in there has seemed to suspicious. There are, however, things that I would like to look at in closer detail in my analysis.

You know, it's just occurred to me that I seem to be the most comprehensively suspected fellow on board. morm's initial campaign was that of an innocent paranoiac, but I'm rather more worried about those who second him...especially Kath, whose point I really can't grasp. "It could either be a set-up." Whose set-up, and of whom, and what? morm setting me up? Ludicrous in my view.

Kath has not been putting out any of her own points and theories. She's been attempting to build a case off of those already created. This could mean she's an innocent with little time or care or she's a Wolf who's trying to stay under the radar. Other than that, I can't really draw anything from her.

One thing that could point to Ang's guilt is the death of Eomer on Day 1. As I said, the fact that Ang trusted Eomer throughout all of Day 1 and then Eomer being killed looks highly suspicious now. Ang could say "What excuse do I have of killing someone who I not only trusted, but is intelligent?" Excatly that. Kill him off because he's intelligent and because you could use that trust to point in a different direction. Maybe I should continue that analysis...

He seems to have jumped rather enthusiastically on Diamond’s case against me toDay. He said that he has had a feeling about me since Day 1, but that, as far as I can recall, he outlined no firm suspicions of me until yesterDay.(Saucy)

That's because I never feel easy playing with you. Normally, those feelings go away after Day 1. However, this time, they've stayed. I dismissed them on Day 2 because I needed to concentrate on the Eomer voters and trying to see who looked more suspicious. But when Diamond came out and said that she didn't trust you either, my thoughts were confirmed. Her analysis of you also gives me more reason to believe you're guilty.

Kath, what is your reasoning behind your vote for me? Is it just because morm said he thought I was guilty? Or do you have something more to go on? Thought of your own perhaps?

[The Saucepan Man]

Apologies one and all for my quietitude, but I am beset by RL issues which continue to prevent me being present as much as I would like. Although, perhaps that is a good thing as my instincts do seem to have been rather off so far.

As regards Holby, well I have a pretty good (or, more accurately, bad) track record of identifying Seers as Wolves. Apologies for my part in forcing her revelation, unnecessary though it was. I doubt that anyone, innocents and Wolves alike suspected that she was the Seer.

Diamond's analysis of me toDay is a classic example of deciding that someone is a Wolf and then searching out the reasoning from their posts to justify that feeling. Some of her points look a little off to me. YesterDay, I thought her a definate Wolf, based on the points I had made earlier in the Day. ToDay, I am not so sure. Her venedetta against me looks a little too bold for a Wolf and comes across, rather, as genuine, albeit misguided. Then again, after yesterDay's events, the Wolves have good reason to be bold and I did think myself a likely lynch candidate toDay, so it would not surprise me if there were a Wolf or two pushing for my death.

Rune's first post of toDay has me a little concerned, as it smacks of Wolfishness without saying very much.

Firefoot is still a suspect, but that may just be because I had convinced myself that either she of Holby was a Wolf. She has come across as sensible and helpful so far toDay.

Lalaith is a tricksy one. Nothing concrete to go on, but I find myself trusting her less and less.

Sorry, not very helpful I know, but I have little time. I shall try to come back later toDay with something more useful but, given RL issues, it may be difficult. I will certainly be back before the end of the Day but I fear that I will have little time for constructive analysis.

[Findëasëa]

Saucepan Man- I do feel like he has been playing a little differently in this village then the others I have been in with him, but not in a strong way at all. It could easily be my perspective, as in the last village he was under a lot of suspicion which started on the first day and so was in a completely different situation. He has not said anything in particular to make me suspicious, his thoughts seem logical to me. Diamond made some interesting points about him in her analysis, so I will try to look back at his posts more closely later.

Diamond18- Hmm I am not sure about her. A lot of her points in the SPM analysis seem to be stretches and a bit strange. I think she does make some valid points about the Jenny situation, but I don’t think that her placing SPM as guilty because of these makes particular sense,

“Actually, that seems very wolfish to me. By broadcasting the possibility, he brought it to the attention of everyone. On purpose. A wolf would do this so that he can later say "Oops, I guess I gave it away to the wolves and that's why they killed her."(Diamond 285)”

I don’t understand her logic here, what would a wolf have to gain from being seen as the reason a gifted had died? She seems to be a misguided innocent, as someone mentioned earlier, but she could also be using this as a cover for something more malicious.

[Findëasëa]

I will be back later today with more, as I still need to look at Kath, Firefoot, Rune, Gurthang and Anguirel. Of everyone in the village at this point, the three that look most suspicious to me are Lalaith, Rune and Gurthang, but I will need to take a closer look at their posts before saying anything definite, so its probably better if I save them for after I get some sleep.
(Sorry for the double post...)

[Lalaith]

Ok, in an attempt to comply with the wish of a dying man, I’ve looked at the voting records of Morm's suspect list. I think it’s quite interesting.

Firefoot: No consistency in voting time. This strikes me as quite innocent, actually.
Day One Voted Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1)
Day Two (second last to vote, just before Gurthang) Voted Lalaith (Ang 1, Lal 2, Firefoot 2, Form 2, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 3
Day Three Voted Durelin (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1)

Gurthang – always votes just a couple of minutes before deadline. This makes me uneasy, particularly as his voting record is not great: two safe throwaways and then a (for all he knew) decisive move for Holby, rather than go for Morm, his lone vote from the day before…
Day One(second-last to vote, 2 mins before deadline): Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
Day Two (last to vote) Mormegil: (Ang 1, Lal 2, Firefoot 2, Form 2, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 3, Mormegil 1)
Day Three (second last to vote) Holby (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 2, Glirdan 1, Rune 2, Holby 3, morm 3, kath 1)

Rune – always among the early voters. RL constraints, maybe, or just likes to play safe?
Day One: Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2)
Day Two: Holby (Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 1)
Day Three: tgwbs (SpM 1, tgwbs 1)

TGWBS – Seemingly casual middle-period voter….but puts someone in lead each time.
Day One: Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
Day Two: did not vote
Day Three: Morm (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1, morm 2)