Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[The Saucepan Man]

Same routine.

1. Diamond -> SpM (SpM-1)
2. Rune -> TGWBS (SpM-1, TGWBS-1)
3. Morm -> Firefoot (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1)
4. Firefoot -> Durelin (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1)
5. Taliesin -> Glirdan (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1)
6. Durelin -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1)
7. SpM -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1)
8. Glirdan-> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1, morm-1)
9. TGWBS -> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-1, morm-2)
10. Caran -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-2, morm-2)
11. Holby -> Durelin (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-1, Holby-2, morm-2)
12. Lalaith -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2)
13. Anguirel -> Kath (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2, Kath-1)
14. Kath -> morm (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-3, Kath-1)
15. Gurthang -> Holby (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1)
16. Findesea -> Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-3, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1)

Now things get interesting, as Rune begins to attract some votes.

But I will first turn to the morm bandwaggon, comprised as it was of 3 of those who remain unknown: Glirdan, TGWBS and Kath. I somehow doubt that the Wolves could have resisted the opportunity to get morm in the frame, even though there was never very much in the way of evidence against him as far as I can see. I am therefore pretty sure that one (but probably only one) of the morm voters is a Wolf. Based upon my feeling that TGWBS is likely innocent, that points to either Glirdan or Kath.

There was also a Holby bandwaggon, comprising myself and Gurthang (plus an innocent Caran). Hmm, if I were to conclude that a Wolf was likely to have joined this bandwaggon (and I'm not entirely sure on that) then, as far as I am concered, that can only point to Gurthang. His vote is an interesting one as it bucked the trend of the previous Days, being as it was for an innocent who was in severe danger of being lynched. I believe that this followed comments about his previous votes having been safe, so (as I think I speculated yesterDay) was he trying to disguide his Wolfish behaviour? Or is that too obvious?

Rune voted early for TGWBS. I think that the Wolves would probably still have been avoiding Wolf-on-Wolf votes at this stage and this would, in any event, have been a reckless Wolf-on-Wolf vote as I believe that there was a fair bit of muttering about TGWBS at the time Rune voted. I commented at the time that I thought the Wolves might have marked out TGWBS as a potential lynch victim for Day 3. Rune's Day 3 vote therefore puts TGWBS in a rather good light, I think.

The same might also be said of Lalaith's vote for Rune. Why would one Wolf put another Wolf on 2 votes, to bring him level with three other cadidates? The only credible possibility, to my mind, is that she is the Lover Wolf and was trying to kill him, but I think that very unlikely as it would be far too risky, or that she is a Loveless Wolf and suspected him as the Lover Wolf. On balance, though, I still think it unlikely that a Wolf voted for a fellow Wolf on Day 3 and Lalaith's vote for Rune therefore speaks in her favour as far as I am concerned.

One other possibility occurs to me. Perhaps Lalaith is the innocent Lover, knew Rune was a Wolf and was trying to take him out. Possible, but it would have been a risky move for her, as it risked exposing her to the Loveless Wolves.

Other possible Wolf-on-Wolf votes: Anguirel for Kath and Firefoot for Durelin. Neither of these seems likely to me, but it's possible that one of them was.

Relishing the prospect of a Day 4 analysis ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Format as before.

1. Diamond -> SpM (SpM-1)
2. Ang -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-1)
3. Caran -> Lalaith (SpM-1, Rune-1, Lalaith-1)
4. Durelin -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-2, Lalaith-1)
5. SpM -> Rune (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1)
6. Kath -> Glirdan (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1)
7. TGWBS -> Gurthang (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-1)
8. Lalaith -> Gurthang (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
9. Rune -> SpM (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
10. Glirdan -> SpM (SpM-3, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
11. Firefoot -> Rune (SpM-3, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
12. Taliesin -> SpM (SpM-4, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
13. Gurthang -> Rune (SpM-4, Rune-5, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)
14. Findesea -> Rune (SpM-4, Rune-6, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2)

Two main bandwaggons - Rune and SpM.

I am pretty much convinced that at least one Wolf, quite possibly two, voted for Rune yesterDay, because I think it distinctly possible that Caran's speculation that Rune was put up as a sacrificial victim to make his fellow Wolves look good is spot on. If not, then his sacrifice certainly became pragmatic to them as the Day progressed. I am going to look at the way that suspicion built up around Rune as the Day progressed in a moment (it's important because one of the main reasons that Rune became such a prime lynching candidate was the spat with Gurthang over his vote for Eomer contrasted with his reasoning for being reluctant to vote for me), but for now I am just looking at the votes.

I have to acknowledge that my vote for Rune looks rather Wolfish, particularly as a great deal of suspicion was being thrown his way, and he already had 2 votes, at the time I voted. All I can say on this is that I am not a Wolf and my vote for Rune was not a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. It's up to you whether you believe that.

The other Rune voters who remain unknowns were Anguirel, Durelin, Firefoot and Gurthang. Much suspicion had been expressed of Rune already when all of these were cast, moreso the later ones. However, I think it likely that a Wolf would have been looking to put their vote for Rune in at a fairly decisive moment. To my mind, the votes of Firefoot and Gurthang look the most Wolfish. By the stage that they both voted, it was pretty clear that it was going to be between me and Rune, with Gurthang a possible contender at the time Firefoot voted. This only really helps me, but I know that my death would have proven me innocent. So, if Firefoot and/or Gurthang is a Wolf, they had the choice between being caught in the badwaggon of one who would be proven innocent (which would look bad) or sacrificing one of their own (which would look good). The Wolves could afford to lose one of their number. Perhaps two of them even thought Rune the Wolf Lover (although not if he had volunteered to be the sacrifical Wolf the Night before).

Indeed, if Gurthang was a Wolf, he found himself in the rather enviable (for a Wolf) position of being able to save me and take part of the credit for killing a Wolf. That would look doubly good if were to die at some point. And I rather agree with Lalaith that his self-serving post suggesting himself as a possible sacrifice to save me looks suspicious. Other than me, only the Wolves know that I am innocent and that this comment might therefore put him in a good light in the long-term. He has sought to explain it by saying that he was attracting more suspicion than me. YesterDay's voting (4 votes for me, 2 votes for Gurthang) hardly bears that out.

On balance, I think that two Wolves probably voted for Rune, and my tentative conclusion is that those Wolves were probably Gurthang and Firefoot, although I do not dismiss the possibility that Anguirel started the ball rolling with a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Durelin had been suspecting Rune from Day 3 (and voted for him on Day 3 too). So, unless there was a long term plan to sacrifice him (ie going back further than Night 4), she was being consistent. I also remain generally comfortable about Durelin for other the other reasons I have previously mentioned, so I am not too concerned about her vote.

The thing that troubles me about definately labelling Gurthang a Wolf is that, looking back at the way the case against Rune gathered during the Day, it is clear that he (or, more accurately, his spat with Rune) was the main force behind those suspicions. And the other two main instigators of them were Anguirel and Firefoot, my other two possible Rune-voting Wolves. If one or two of these three are Wolves, this would point towards the Rune sacrifice having been pre-arranged. But it gives me some cause for doubt.

On to some of the other votes.

Of those in the SpM bandwaggon, one was a Wolf, one was an innocent, one is a known non-Wolf and one, Glirdan, remains unknown. Glirdan's vote followed Rune's vote for me, although Glirdan had expressed strong suspicions of me from fairly early on in the Day. Nevertheless, I think it unlikely that there was more than one Wolf voting for me, so this somewaht eases my suspicions of Glirdan.

Rune's vote for me alas does not go very far towards clearing me, as it would benefit two Wolves to vote for each other in circumstances where the two of them were the main lynch candidates. With no double lynchings, one would die leaving the other in a position to take some of the credit.

Given how (to my mind at least) there seems to be much pointing towards Gurthang being a Wolf, the fact that TGWBS and Lalaith both voted for him gives me further cause to feel comfortable about the two of them. If Gurthang is a Wolf, and there was a plan (whether prearranged or ad hoc) to sacrifice Rune, it is highly unlikely that any Wolves would have cast a Wolf-on-Wolf vote for another of their number. Also, Rune had been attacking TGWBS fairly strongly on Day 3 and this also speaks in Guy's favour.

The other vote worthy of mention is Kath's vote for Glirdan. In my Day 1 analysis I noted that Glirdan's Day 1 vote for Kath made it unlikely that both were Wolves together. That is even more the case with Kath's vote here. Given that, as I recall, Glirdan was never a serious contender to be lycnhed yesterDay, this might be viewed as a safe vote. It was quite early, but Rune had already taken quite a lead in the lynching stakes.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

'Forgive me, but I have pretty much resigned myself to the gallows.'*

*Play on a PotC quote.

Didn't the pirate who spoke these words end up avoiding the gallows ...?

[The Saucepan Man]

For the sake of completeness. Here are my notes on the way that suspicion gathered around Rune yesterDay. Apologies for the lack of post numbers, but I am farily sure that it accurately (and chronologically) reflects the way things went.

The case against Rune really started when Gurthang picked him up on the contradiction between his being reluctant to vote for me just because I would be a dangerous Wolf and his Day 1 vote for Eomer. So, Gurthang was really the first to raise serious suspicion of Rune yesterDay.

Then Anguirel voiced some suspicion of Rune - although he was not Ang’s top suspect at that point. Kath and Durelin, then me, preceeded Rune in his poem/list.

I then noted that I was a little concerned over Rune due to the tenor of his first post of the Day.

Findesea was next to state Rune as a suspect, along with Gurthang and Lalaith.

Rune then identified Gurthang as a suspect for his picking him up on the "dangerous as Wolf" issue. He also suspected Anguirel (as he had on previous Days).

Firefoot noted Rune’s faulty reasoning on the “dangerous as Wolf” issue.

Anguirel weighed in with a comment about Rune’s defence being “extraordinary oratory” and put in the first vote for Rune (SpM-1, Rune-1).

Durelin then said that she thought Rune looked Wolfish (continuing her suspicions from the previous Day).

Caran included Rune as a possible suspect, although she mentioned him last after Kath and Lalaith.

Firefoot mentioned Rune as a particular focus of her intended investigations.

Gurthang categorised Rune’s reaction to his comment as “over the top” and indicated that Rune would be likely receive his vote.

Fin analysed Rune and concluded that he seemed to have been playing it safe and that he looked pretty suspicious.

Firefoot concurred with Fin.

Durelin voted for Rune (SpM-1, Rune-2, Lalaith-1).

SpM outlined strong suspicions of Rune (explaining the concern expressed earlier over Rune's first post of the Day) and gave him his third vote (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1).

Lalaith said that she was torn between voting Gurthang or Rune (but voted for Gurthang).

Rune voted for me as his best shot of surviving (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2). It occurred to me that a vote for Gurthang would surely have been a better option, unless he was bargaining on me ultimately receiving more votes (and he could predict Taliesin and Glirdan would probably vote for me). Nevertheless, it's possible that he was protecting Gurthang.

Gurthang said that, even if it was between him and SpM, he would probably still vote for Rune. This is the comment that Lalaith picked up on earlier toDay.

Firefoot voted for Rune (SpM-3, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

Gurthang voted for Rune, citing my likely innocence (SpM-4, Rune-5, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

Fin did likewise, although clearly cross-posting with Gurthang, also citing a belief in my innocence (SpM-4, Rune-6, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

The main point to come out of this I think is that, as I noted earlier, it was really Gurthang that started the suspicion of Rune. And many concerns had already been expressed about Rune (by Anguirel, me, Fin and Firefoot - in that order) by the time Anguirel cast the first vote for him.

This does rather speak in Gurthang's favour (and, less so, Ang's) unless there was a Wolfish plan hatched the previous Night to sacrifice Rune. But that scenario is a distinct possibility in my mind, given that Rune attracted the joint highest number of votes on Day 3.

[The Saucepan Man]

Sorry for jabbering on folks. Just a bit more and then I'll shut up. As I said, I want to get all this down now as I will be away for most of the rest of the Day.

I know Caran has already done an analysis of Rune's posts, but I had already largely prepared my own analysis, so I might as well offer it up for general consumption.

Day 1:

Unreasoned (second) vote for innocent Eomer.

Day 2:

Agrees with Formendacil that Eomer’s death was calculated to cause confusion. Expresses surprise at so many votes for Nilp. Was he perhaps directing us towards the Nilp voters (of whom Durelin, Ang and Firefoot remain unknown)? [#119]

Tempted to agree with Jenny re Jenny’s explanation of her vote for Holby.

Picks up on morm’s case against Ang - thinks one of them a Wolf. Cannot read Glirdan. Thinks Lhuna innocent (she was). Needs strong evidence to vote for a potentially helpful, but also potentially dangerous, SpM. Came to suspect Holby and Firefoot on the basis of SpM’s reasoning. TGWBS seems crooked (gut feeling). Won’t vote for Jenny. Likely to vote for TGWBS, Holby, Firefoot or, possibly, Glirdan. [#161]

Defends Jenny again, against Taliesin. [#179]

Finds that Firefoot has been helpful, so will not vote for her. That leaves Glirdan and Holby (TGWBS disappears from his suspect list, although he reappears on Day 3). Votes Holby because “she is capable fo more” (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-1). [#189]

Day 3:

Expresses surprise that Jenny was the Hunter, but not surprised that she chose Form as her target. Challenges Glirdan’s assertion that he’s a vocal player. No prime suspect. [#227]

Analyses TGWBS, Glirdan, morm/Ang, Holby and Firefoot (his Day 2 stated suspects). Finds TGWBS very suspicious - quiet and confusing - and likely to get his vote. Finds Glirdan slightly suspicious. Still thinks either Ang or morm is a Wolf. Still suspicious of Holby, but unlikely to vote for her. Little suspicion of Firefoot because of her helpfulness. Thinks those not mentioned innocent for now. [#234]

Votes for TGWBS on previous reasoning (SpM-1, TGWBS-1). [#239]

Day 4:

Early post which says little, but which smacked of Wolvery to me. [#302]

In response to Di’s entreaty, would consider voting for SpM, but would need strong evidence. [#310]

Sees Gurthang as suspicious for picking up on his “dangerous villagers” comment. Sticking with his suspicion of Ang on the basis that morm turned out innocent. [#326 and #329]

Votes for SpM, supposedly as his best shot of surviving (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2). [#355]

Summary

It looks to me like Rune may have been setting Anguirel up with his "theory" that either morm or Anguirel was a Wolf. This is a technique that an ancestor of mine used as a Wolf to lay suspicion on first one innocent and then (when he died) another. To my mind, that speaks in Ang's favour.

Most of those that Rune explicitly stated he thought innocent innocent or defended have turned out innocent (Lhuna and Jenny).

His main stated suspects were TGWBS, Holby and Firefoot, though he later stated that his supicions of Firefoot had eased.

He expressed mild suspicion of Glirdan, morm and Ang (and, on Day 4, Gurthang).

As far as I can see, he never mentioned Kath, Lalaith and Durelin.

[The Saucepan Man]

I should, perhaps, make clear that the analysis of Rune in my previous post was directed mainly towards what he had said about his fellow passengers, rather than being a comprehensive analysis of his posts.

There now follows an analysis of what others have said about Rune. It may not pick up everything as I was relying on the thread search function, and also rather tired at the time (as indeed I am fast bcoming at this very moment).

Day 1:

Anguirel notes Rune as an early suspect - although that arose mainly from banter. [#51, #57 and #71]

Day 2:

Glirdan’s analysis of the Eomer-voters is interesting (#132, #135, #136, #139, #140 and #143). He finds Rune slightly suspicious and places him fourth in the list after Taliesin, Diamond (I think he meant Diamond by Engels, since TGWBS is also included) and TGWBS (with Lhuna - whom he later voted for - fourth).

Lalaith picks up on Glirdan’s analysis of Rune (and Taliesin). [#160]

Durelin suspects Rune for his early (unreasoned) vote for Eomer. [#165]

Anguirel considers that Eomer’s death may have been intended to frame an Eomer-voter and thinks Rune the most likely victim of such a frame-up. [#181]

Firefoot, in a comprehensive analysis, categorises Rune as a blundering innocent and says he seems too unsure of everything to be a Wolf. [#183]

Glirdan seizes upon Durelin’s comment that Rune has posted little and says he finds that worrying as he considers Rune to be normally “a really vocal player”. [#193]

Glirdan subsequently mentions Rune, among others, before voting for Lhuna. [#196]

Day 3:

Glirdan backs down from his comment about Rune being vocal. [#237]

Gurthang thinks Rune makes some good points about TGWBS being unreadable. [#238]

In a comprehensive analysis, Lalaith expresses serious worries about Rune - for bandwaggoning against Eomer, bantering too much and picking on TGWBS as an easy target. [#249]

Ang not unduly worried about Rune (in the context of Holby-voters). [#252]

Rune tops Durelin’s suspect list (with also includes Holby and Anguirel, possibly Taliesin) [258]

Durelin votes for Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1). [#261]

In response to Taliesin, Glirdan explains his comments on the Eomer voters and Rune in particular - found him suspicious as an Eomer-voter, but less so than most other Eomer voters. [#264]

Of those with votes, Ang suspects Rune and Durelin - neither emphatically. [#268]

Lalaith votes for Rune in the absence of her other suspects as front-runners (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2). [#277]

Kath notes Rune as a lynch candidate, but doesn’t really know what to think of him. [#286]

Findesea gave Rune his third vote - at the death, so to speak (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-3, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1).

For Day 4 - see analysis a few posts above.

Conclusions and thoughts about possible co-Wolves

Ang was to and fro about Rune from Day 1 through to Day 4, and even then Rune was not as high on his list as some others until the Gurthang spat. Possible Wolfish comrade.

Durelin was consistent in her suspicions of Rune from Day 2 on. Unlikely a fellow Wolf. But might be the innocent Lover, having been told of his Wolfishness.

Kath has hardly mentioned him. A definite possibility as a co-Wolf.

Lalaith was pretty firm in her suspicions of him on Day 3 and voted for him, putting him level with Durelin, Holby and morm on 2 votes, but did not vote for him on Day 4. Unlikely Wolvish comrade, but a possible innocent Lover.

Firefoot hardly mentioned him, noting him only as a blundering innocent, until the suspicion started to gather on Day 4. A possible Wolfish comrade.

Gurthang is in much the same boat as Firefoot with regard to Rune. His Day 3 vote could have been intended to save Rune and his Day 4 vote may well have been calculated to make him look good. A distinctly possible Wolfish comrade.

Glirdan mooted mild suspicions about Rune on Day 2, but didn’t really mention him much after that. Possible Wolfish comrade.

TGWBS has not mentioned Rune at all, but Rune was gunning for him on Day 3. The only credible possibility I see is that TGWBS is the Lover Wolf and Rune suspected him as such. Doubtful though.

[The Saucepan Man]

Right. I'm done. You will no doubt be glad that won't be hearing from me now until much later on (RL) tomorrow. I leave you with my own current thinking, based on all of the above.

Possible Wolves: Gurthang, Kath and Firefoot.
Could go either way: Anguirel and Glirdan
Tend to think innocent: Lalaith, TGWBS and Durelin
Innocents: Caran and Taliesin

Innocent Lover: Lalaith? Durelin? Taliesin?

The though of a Wolfish Anguirel and an innocent Lalaith as Lovers somehow amuses me greatly. But I haven't really had time to go back and try to look for possible Lover connections, so my thoughts on the innocent Lover are tentative in the extreme.

And (except, obviously, for the known non-Wolves) my thoughts on the possible Wolves and innocents are by no means cast in stone. I'll make my mind up when I get back tomorrow and see what others have had to say.

Cheerio!

[Durelin]

OK, perhaps not, but it does reinforce my warm, fuzzy feeling for Durelin (although I should perhaps make clear that love is not involved ).

Awww...and you had my hopes up...

Gurthang and Glirdan are looking the most suspicious right now, but that might change by RL tomorrow. Firefoot's up there, too. Kath is possible, but she's barely been around....which perhaps I should be more worried about, except that I feel for legitimate absences.

I haven't got anything more right now. Reading your analyses, Saucie, made me lose an ebay auction and I need to go and cry myself to sleep...

[Glirdan]

Okay, now I don't know what to think of Saucy. His analyses have eased my suspicions of him...somewhat. There's just something I don't trust about him. And those points Diamond brought up yesterDay...I really don't know what to think of him now...

Kath is also starting to worry me. She says very little and doesn't give any of her own input. She uses other peoples evidence for her reasonings without building on them.

Another person that's sligthly worrying me, and it's only because of a point that morm brought up on Day 2, is Ang. The death of Eomer is what really bugs me.

I'm still quite nervous of Taliesin and Caran, but only because it's possible one of them is the innocent Lover. I think we should go back and see if there's anyone either of them has protected constantly.

The rest don't seem overly odd. If anything, I'm inclined to believe that Gurthang and Durelin are probably innocent.

Idea just poped into my head! We all have that little nagging suspicion in us that either Taliesin or Caran could be the Wolf Lover (if you don't, then there might be something a little wrong with you). So, if we are to assume properly, the Wolves will be picking them off over the next two Nights. However, if one of them IS the Lover, one of the Wolves will be trying to persuade the others to keep away from that one. My suggestion is that if after the two Nights, one of them still lives, lynch him or her. That way, we get rid of the innocent who is not really innocent as well as getting rid of another Wolf.

However, just to ease my mind, I will still go back and analyse them.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Didn't the pirate who spoke these words end up avoiding the gallows ...?

Oh, gee, thanks. That brings hope to my heart.

Almost everything since I left has been Saucepan Man. I wish I had time to read it, because, glancing at bits of it, it looks pretty good. I think you're right about most of it. Well, except me.

As for my suspicions, Glirdan's little analysis of our known innocents is somewhat strange. Seems like he's trying to shift the focus off of finding the wolves.

[Caranlondien]

I have serious suspicions of Gurthang, but I don't want to vote for him just yet.

Firefoot is right about the gender ratio. Out of Durelin, Kath, Lalaith, and Firefoot, we probably have one or two wolves. I know that either the innocent lover or the wolf-lover is in there, because I know I'm not the lover. So I suggest concentrating our efforts on the females. So that's one evil person guaranteed, and chances are there's another one. I tend to eliminate Durelin from the suspect list, because she seems very un-suspicious. As for the other three, I'm just not sure... yet. I'll be back, after some reviewing.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

In-character stuff in her first post, then shows up saying she won't be voting.

Day Two

#163: Surprised by Eomer's death, since he had garnered so much suspicion; thinks the wolves must have thought he was the Seer. Suspicious of Jenny for "I-told-you-so" comment.

#182: Agrees with Holby's points about Jenny. Doesn't seem sure what to think about morm's attack on Ang (suggests it could be a set-up, or wolf-Ang trying to make it look like a set-up, decides morm is probably innocent, then adds that he does seem overly jumpy, though). Seems to take Lhuna's claim that Firefoot is the wolf-lover seriously, considers Lhuna might be the Seer, but decides it's improbable. Her suspect list comprises Jenny, Ang, and Firefoot. Polls the village (where's DancingSpawn? ) about our opinion on Lhuna's "claim".

#187: Consults the rules concerning the Seer and sees the Seer can't see the ordo-lover's lover status, but wonders if she can see the wolf-lover's lover status. (I just have to note that that may have been one of the most awkward sentences I've ever written...followed by this sentence, which used the dreaded "that that"... okay, [/grammer geekiness]... I should really go to sleep )

#191:

Ugh, well. I'm going to keep Lhuna on my suspect list because it was just such a weird thing to do.

This seems like rather an innocent statement to me.... I'm not sure why exactly, it just strikes me as ordo-ish.
Votes Jenny.

Day Three

#242: Thinks there isn't much point in looking over Jenny's posts because she was probably killed for gifted-hints and not for Seer-ish statements, but looks back over them anyway. Says since the wolves felt comfortable killing her, she probably wasn't close on any of her suspects. Finds herself agreeing with suspicion of tgwbs.

#243: Analyzes tgwbs, concludes he is unusually quiet - could be a wolf, could be an irritating ordo.

#286: Distressed that she has come back with 4 minutes left to find a tie. Won't vote Holby. Doesn't know about the other three.

#288: Votes morm to break tie, because he's the only candidate she's had any suspicion of all day. Seems genuinely anxious.

Day Four

#348: Says due to RL difficulties, this will be her only post. Doesn't like tgwbs's suggestion to have the three known non-wolves make lists of doom because they might be ordo-lovers. Comments on the morm-Ang "one is a wolf" theory, states that by the time he died, morm's suspicions had turned more to Glirdan than Ang. Says she won't vote SpM until she or a known innocent has analyzed him, as Diamond seemed already convinced of his wolvishness. Votes Glirdan. Plans to look more closely at SpM, Ang, and (if he's still alive) Glirdan the next Day.

Day Five

She hasn't appeared yet toDay.

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I don't think she's a wolf. For one thing, there's her early no-vote. Then there's her vote for Jenny, who I'm sure by that point all the wolves had pegged as a gifted. She doesn't strike me as someone who'd be that bold as a wolf. My memory may be a bit fuzzy, but I seem to remember her being a very quiet wolf, flying under the radar, and not taking any chances. Granted, she's been quiet, she's flown under the radar somewhat, but she has been taking some pretty bold chances.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

Some in-character stuff first, then...

#50: Points out that Eomer, Fin, and tgwbs have yet to speak, and agrees with SpM that we ought not to vote for people before they've shown themselves. Thinks the voting records will be easier to read than usual, because with the Lovers around the Wolves will be more wary of wolf-on-wolf votes.

#52: Suggests SpM and Ang look up their biblical queries on Google.

#62: Corrects Nilp about how Eomer characterized his actions (he said unwolvish, not wolvish) but disagrees, thinks it's merely Nilp-ish.

#68: Uneasy about Form. Doesn't like the Eomer-bandwagon; doesn't want to vote for Nilp either. Looks like she's trying to get out of casting a deciding vote.

#72: Decides to vote for Form.

Day Two

#109: Thinks the wolves must have thought Eomer was the Seer. Wonders why they thought this.

#110: Corrects Fin about the Hunter-Ranger relationship.

#124: Doesn't think the wolves would be so silly as to allow a grudge to motivate their killing of Eomer. Thinks it was probably because they thought him Gifted or because they wanted to waste a Seer dream.

#126: Corrects Caran about Nilp's role (Ranger, not Hunter).

#160: Finds herself believing contradicting things as she reads different people's theories. Points out that who posts first is more determined by time zones than by wolfishness. Points out Eomer could have been mistaken for the Seer because he pegged someone as innocent. Thinks Glirdan has made some interesting points about Taliesin and Rune

#178: Says due to RL, she can't comment as much as she wants. Worried about Form and Taliesin. Votes Form.

Day Three

#226: Not surprised that Jenny was the Hunter, and doesn't blame her for suspecting Form, but notes she did begin to wonder about him after his total non-appearance the Day before. Says she'll be making a post of her thoughts on everyone. Says she prefers to use observations to draw conclusions, rather than trying to find a suspect who fits one's preconceived notion of what how a wolf will be acting, as she says Fin seems to be doing.

#230: Responds to Fin's response.

#231: Wishes Fin a happy birthday.

#249: Notes flurry of last-minute activity and much un-reasoned voting yesterDay. Gives thoughts on everyone so far. Chief concerns are Caran and Rune. Wants to hear more from morm about Jenny's list.

#255: Asks morm if he thinks that because Jenny removed Gurthang and Firefoot from her suspect list, they may have thought it safe to kill her.

#277: Votes Rune, bringing him up to a tie with the leaders, Holby and morm, both known innocents. A very risky move for a wolf, especially since Fin nearly got Rune lynched that Day - if she had voted a bit earlier, he would have died instead of morm. The question is, did the wolves plan this early to sacrifice Rune?

Day Four

#303: Notes the cross-posting of Kath's vote for morm, Gurthang's vote for Holby, and Fin's vote for Rune, which means that each voter thought they were casting the deciding vote in the three-way tie. Agrees with Firefoot that we don't have to worry too much about the Lovers. Still thinks morm was onto something about Jenny's list (I guess this implies she thinks Gurthang or Firefoot is guilty).

#304: Points out to Firefoot that wolves sometimes do skip out on voting. (However, Firefoot later points out that Lal's example is from the early days of WW.)

#325: Follows morm's instructions to look at the voting records from Jenny's list. Says Firefoot's lack of consistency in voting times strikes her as innocent. Nervous about Gurthang because he always votes just before the deadline and has cast two throw-away votes, plus one (as far as he knew decisive) vote for Holby. Notes that Rune always votes early - RL constraints or playing it safe? Points out that tgwbs votes in the "seemingly casual middle period" but each time his vote has put someone in the lead.

#330: Points out that any of the three known not-wolves could still be the lover.

#334: Reminds Durelin that Holby was outed as the Seer before she died.

#353: Torn between voting Rune and Gurthang.

#354: Votes Gurthang, but I doubt it's an attempt to save Rune. She almost got him lynched the Day before, and I still think his death was planned, so she wouldn't be trying to save him if she were a wolf.

Day Five

#371: Thinksj Guy is innocent. Suspicious of people who've made "mistakes" that make them look innocent (points out Durelin and Glirdan). Suspicious of Gurthang for weird reasoning about not voting to save himself over SpM. "This just smacks of a wolf trying to look like a good guy."

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My overall impression of Lalaith is that she's innocent. A very tenuous theory might be that the wolves meant to sacrifice Rune the Day she voted for him, but failed to actually pull it off, and then decided to make her look really good by sacrificing him the next Day without her voting for him. Or maybe they didn't mean to sacrifice him, and the Day she voted for him, she didn't think anyone else would vote for him. But I kind of feel like I'm grasping at straws here.

I don't have the energy to analyze Firefoot (or Durelin, I guess I should analyze her too) right now. I'm getting tempted to forsake my gender-ratio plan and lynch Gurthang, because I found my suspicion of him increasing as I re-read the posts. In any case, I'll be back in some number of hours.