Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Kath]

That's it from me for now. Need sleep!

Back in the morning (RL) to do Durelin and Sauce.

[Gurthang]

Uhm...

I'm confused. There's quite a few accusations flying around, and I only wish I had time to sort through and think them all out.

Saucepan and Taliesin are going at each other pretty good, and Kath and Saucey's little spat just now seems really strange.

But, seeing as I have to go (again) I'll just have to see how it plays out through the Day.

[Durelin]

Durelin for much the same reason. I don't recall her having said much at all throughout the game.

Analysis isn't my thing. It never has worked for me, though I've tried it before. Also, believe it or not, I have been short on time, due to having to prioritize.

(And for this, I apologize to everyone, especially Cailin, as the moddess.)

I'm a little worried about one thing, though. And that is why I'm not dead yet.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm, Kath's analysis of TGWBS has me wondering about him. As I read through it, knowing her to be a Wolf, I though that she was going to make a case against him. But she ends up effectively clearing him, which makes me wonder whether he might not be innocent after all. I have become increasingly doubtful as to whether Gurthang is a Wolf. It might be too obvious, if you get my meaning. And then there's that spat with Rune. It could have been a deliberate Wolfish effort to get Rune lynched and thereby earn credit. Or it could have been an innocent accusing a Wolf which at least one other Wolf (Firefoot and, possibly, Anguirel) seized on to gain credit.

Gurthang, Anguirel and TGWBS - I know that one of you is a Wolf, but I think it's only one. My message to the two of you who are innocent is please let's co-operate and rid ourselves of a Wolf toDay.

I am certain that Durelin is innocent and almost certain about Lalaith, so my message to you two is the same.

Firefoot and Kath are Wolves. We must kill one of them toDay or we are most probably lost.

[The Saucepan Man]

If we kill an innocent toDay, the Loveless Wolves will have a choice. They could kill the innocent Lover (which the Wolf Lover would try to prevent, but no doubt be powerless to prevent) or they could kill a plain innocent.

If they kill the innocent Lover, then you have lost.

If they kill a plain innocent, then toMorrow’s complement will be 3 Wolves (2 Loveless and 1 Lover) and 4 innocents (3 Ordos and 1 Lover). Very easy for the two Loveless Wolves to engineer the killing of either a plain innocent or the innocent Lover in this situation. Either way, you lose and the Wolves win.

But, if we kill a Loveless Wolf toDay, the innocent Lover will almost certainly be safe toNight. A plain innocent will be killed. That leaves 2 Wolves (1 Loveless and 1 Lover) and 5 innocents (4 Ordos and 1 Lover) toMorrow. Much easier for the Lovers to win from this position. And although I will do my damndest to prevent that happening when it comes to it, I would reiterate that, for toDay, it is in your best interests to help the innocents kill a Loveless Wolf.

[Firefoot]

Wow, Sauce seems... riled.

I'm a bit confused where the Taliesin = lover came from... also, I have no idea where you get me to be his lover. At least I had back-up for my theory. I don't even know how to defend myself to Sauce's accusations, since I'm not exactly sure what they're based on... all I know is he has suspected me from Day 1, and a lot of it had been of the "she makes a good point here, but there's always this..." variety (not lately, obviously).

I'm confused. There's quite a few accusations flying around, and I only wish I had time to sort through and think them all out.

What he said.

[Durelin]

At least I had back-up for my theory.

And Taliesin was at the head of it.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I'm a bit confused where the Taliesin = lover came from... also, I have no idea where you get me to be his lover.

Taliesin is behaving in the manner that I would expect a Wolf to behave at this stage in our travails. Since he is clearly not a Wolf, I strongly suspect that he is the innocent Lover.

I really don't know whether his Lover is you or Kath. But it is one of the two of you.

As for my certainy about you, well it's based on my long analyses yesterDay, which your behaviour toDay has confirmed in my mind.

If you are the Wolf Lover, do me a favour and vote for a Wolf.

[Durelin]

I've been wary of trusting Sauce this entire game. Right now I'm starting to feel like I've been kept alive because I trust him.

Sauce should be dead by now, except that the wolves of course tried to get rid of the gifteds first, and then they had to deal with (and are still dealing with) the innocents that Holby revealed.

I'm not dead probably because I'm normally seen as worthless.

Fair enough, I suppose.

I think if Sauce was a wolf, though, it's more likely that I would be dead by now. Because a good 'I told you so' is a good way to boost people's image of you. Except...the wolves, whoever they are + Rune, have been busy.

Bleh...I'm trying to think things through, and it's not working.

I think I'm still going to go with Sauce being innocent, though, for now, at least.

Oh, and yes, I'll tell you right now: the whole purpose of this post was to show that I have a little bit of suspicion-feeling stuff concerning SPM just to throw you guys off of our trail, cause you know he's been telling me who to lynch this whole time. Right.

EDIT: Cross-posted with SPM.

[Gurthang]

As weird as this sounds, I actually think Saucepan might be innocent. He's been offering a bunch of 'advice' and stuff... to the Lovers. And that's something that he would only do as an innocent.

Let me walk myself through this. If he was a wolf, he would assume that the ordo-Lover knows who he is. If he suggests the plan he just put forth, where the Lovers lynch a wolf toDay, then he would practically be persuading the Lovers to try to get him lynched.

Now, if he was one of the Lovers, then this wouldn't work either. I just don't see him putting out all that information when he could just keep it to himself. It would be basically telling the village his whole strategy.

Still, I'm not sure where he's coming up with this whole thing about Taliesin and Firefoot being the Lovers. But, by what I said above, Saucey is more than likely innocent, and so he's probably pretty close to being right. I think he might be right that Firefoot is something evil. I might be voting for her later, but as always, I'll be waiting until close to the end of the Day. Taliesin is acting strangely, too, but I'd rather leave him since we known he's not a wolf.

[Anguirel]

You know, it seems to me as if some berserker alien inflitrator has possessed the Real Admiral Potboiler. These rabid certainties are not characteristic of him either as innocent or wolf. Maybe it's the football season. But first, to yesterday's votes (lacking the Firefoot Method, boo hoo)

1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)
3. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 1)
4. tgwbs-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2)
5. Glirdan-->SpM (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
6. Kath-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 2, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
7. Taliesin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 3, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
8. Firefoot-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 4, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
9. Caran-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
10. Saucey-->Firefoot (Firefoot 2, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
11. Gurthang-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 6, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)

My vote's timing was dictated solely by, er, timing. It was a real feel about in the dark and does not represent the kind of certainty Sauce apparently possesses today.

Durelin has latterly (and then) been heavily playing the "Don't Kill Me, I'm Hapless" card. This vote is consistent with such an image. Glirdan was-as Sauce pointed out-an easy target to kick. The first vote of a bandwagon (I am aware I could be referring to myself) is a fine place to hide.

Lalaith has shown dogged consistency in her pursuit of Gurthang lately; it makes interesting comparison with her fuzziness on Rune. But there is a lot to suspect from the plank operator. More on that anon.

Engels again shadows Lalaith closely. If you ask me, this is a lovers pair we can rule out-few would brave such close association. These two have long been Gurthang-harriers. It should also be noted that they're both lucid thinkers. I believe they may have spotted what we all missed. I've long thought Engels at least an innocent.

Glirdan's vote was clearly a lurch towards self-preservation.

Kath then cast a vote that could very well be called Glirdan's death sentence. The second voter is a very dangerous proposition. A wave of Glirdan votes followed; partly due to these Sauce is convinced Firefoot is a wolf and Taliesin the Innocent Lover. Hold your horses, Sauce. Your strident convictions could mar our search for a culprit. Get back to your wider perspective.

Sauce's and Gurthang's votes are a coda, sonorously bringing the symphony of lynching to its end. Without meaning in the political short-term, they make all the difference now. Because of them I am inclined to see Sauce as an innocent (though taken for a ride by "hapless" wolf-Durelin) and Gurthang as guilty.

More in the afternoon.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Sauce should be dead by now, except that the wolves of course tried to get rid of the gifteds first, and then they had to deal with (and are still dealing with) the innocents that Holby revealed.

Durelin, much of your post is rendered redundant by this fact. Plentifully provided with practically trailless innocents to kill, no wolf would worry about Sauce, you or anything of the sort.

Later.

[the guy who be short]

I think you may be right... I'll probably die toNight, so I'm just saying it here, I'm strongly suspicious of Firefoot and Gurthang now.

The dying words of Caran. Though my calls for a dictatorial republic are ever denied by fearful wolves and arrogant innocents, I myself will consider these words. And though I consider SpM innocent, I wish to consider things myself now that I have some time allotted to me.