Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[the guy who be short]

Before I start my own analyses, Taliesin being a Lover does make some sense. I have not analysed him myself, so I do not claim I hold this theory, merely that it is logical that a lover-wolf would convince the others to kill Taliesin last.

Now to analyse.

[the guy who be short]

Going over SpM's analyses from yesterday, I end up feeling more uncomfortable about Kath than either Gurthang or Firefoot, largely on her voting record. She conveniently doesn't vote on Day 1, votes for an innocent Jenny unlikely to be lynched on day 2, clinches morm's death - saving Rune - on day 3, and votes for an innocent Glirdan on Day 4. She often votes for minor candidates with no chance of lynching. On Day 5, She votes for Glirdan, potentially equalising with a wolvish Gurthang, and staring a bandwagon.

Gurthang, meanwhile, consistently votes extremely late. I don't like it. four of his votes have been for innocents, one for a Rune under such suspicion that he would later die anyway.

Firefoot's voting record in less easy to analyse, as she has voted for many who lived yet. Still, it is hardly flattering. The only anomaly is her Rune vote when he was drawing with SpM on Day 4. As SpM says, this my no means exonerates her. It can be construed to make her look bad.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Gurthang, meanwhile, consistently votes extremely late. I don't like it. four of his votes have been for innocents, one for a Rune under such suspicion that he would later die anyway.

I can be here late, so why shouldn't I wait until then to vote? I really don't understand why this is so suspicious. If you say my voting is suspect, well, I'll give you that, because it sure doesn't sparkle. But I don't think that time is a very valid reason.

I'm becoming somewhat suspicious of this Firefoot bandwagon. I don't know if she's innocent or not, as I haven't really looked into her myself. I'm just concerned that all the momentum has shifted so quickly. It's making me wonder again about Saucey, and about Guy as the second voter.

Quite frankly, I have no idea what to think. This feels way to much like Day 1 to be real. I've had suspicions of Guy before, and that nagging feeling is always there when playing with Saucepan Man. Firefoot has given me pause a few times, and Durelin has been acting strange, but I guess that's more normal for her. Right now, I have no idea who I'm gonna vote for. Hopefully, I'll find something to point me in the right direction.

[Lalaith]

I'm sorry, what I thought was tiredness last night was actually the start of a migraine which I still have, so don't expect much from me toDAy.

But I would like to keep options open for as long as I can rather than leap on a great juggernaut of a Firefoot bandwaggon, which may end up telling us very little if Firefoot turns out to be innocent after all and no-one else was really being threatened.
Speaking of which, the Glirdan bandwaggon yesterday: it only really took off when Gurthang was up to two votes, so if Gurth is a wolf then one or even both of the other wolves will have been not just voting but stoking that waggon. (Feasibly the wolves on the waggon may have been trying to save Saucie or Firefoot, too, if either of them are wolves, however neither of them were in much danger yesterday, with both getting only had one vote early on and another cast late for Firefoot, when the Glirdan bandwaggon was already up and rolling)
And we can't find out unless we lynch Gurthang, which I confess I would still like to do.
But I need to broaden my scope. Even if Gurth is a wolf, there are still two more wolves out there so I need some more suspects. If I feel better I will try to go through everything. Again.

[Firefoot]

Like the constant references to my "unfortunate" statistics. Of course they are unfortunate with the benefit of hindsight. I am sure that everyone's early suspicions and votes have elements that were "unfortunate" with the benefit of hindsight. It's the nature of the game, m'dear.

But you fail to give other people the same consideration:

She labelled four unknown innocents as innocent in #164 (if a Wolf, she would know).
[And, actually, as Caran failed to note, this was part of a larger analysis... not important, maybe, but this way it looks like I just randomly chose those four as innocent...]

I'm not saying this shouldn't or can't be used as evidence... but it's the same way for everyone.

uffice it to say that I am rather regretting my early vote now since, while I still believe Firefoot to be a Wolf, I am absolutely certain that Kath is one.

[Kath]

Yes, which is why I said unfortunate in hindsight not ‘Look! He voted for 3 innocents and suspected many other, lynch him he’s a wolf!’ Had I done that I would consider it to be unbalanced.

And on we go.

Post 169 – agrees with TGWBS somewhat over not looking at Eomer voters, though does point out that it’s odd coming from TGWBS since he was an Eomer voter, but says he still retains suspicion of Di for it, and also believes that there is a wolf amongst the Nilp voters, with the other wolves being people who voted for someone else. In light of this he splits the village accordingly. Again repeats that either Firefoot or Holby is a wolf, and that it is more likely to be Holby. Finds Caran, Form and Gurthang’s votes suspicious as possible wolf on wolf votes, with Gurthang at the top of the list. Also some suspicion of morm because he was so bold. Mentions suspicion of Jenny with the same reasoning as many others came up with. Not suspicious as he was the first to do it, but did say that if she were not a wolf Holby was. If a wolf then that’s a good way to push suspicion onto someone else if Jenny ended up lynched or dead. Apologises for if he blew Jenny’s cover as Hunter, which is just silly because if that worried about it he wouldn’t have done it. Well, ok he might there could be reasoning for that. But in that case it’s either slightly silly innocent time or a wolf going ‘oops’ and asking for forgiveness after the fact, and Sauce isn’t silly.

Post 171 – speculates that Jenny may be the innocent Lover. Not sure there was any reasoning behind that at the time.

Post 174 – backtracks and says he doesn’t think her the Hunter as she wouldn’t have bothered trying to save Nilp and Eomer.

Post 190 – says he has confused himself so will now ignore Jenny and go back to Gurthang, Holby and Firefoot, but says Gurthang has quelled his suspicions somewhat. Votes Holby because he feels Firefoot is more innocent. Says he dislikes the way Firefoot does analyses, or at least that kind of analysis in general, because it makes it easier for a wolf to hide.

Post 245 – apologises to Jenny for revealing her, but says he didn’t think she actually was the Hunter. Takes a quick look at the villagers. Suspects Di, Gurthang, Firefoot, Holby, wary of Ang and Lalaith, unsure over me, Tali and Caran and inclined to trust everyone else. Has reasoning for suspecting or not suspecting everyone. Looks to be very fair and reasoned, but then I wouldn’t expect otherwise whatever the role.

Post 263 – apologises for not being around much. Votes Holby because she is still his main suspect for being careful with her votes and condemning Lhuna. Maybe there should be a new role – ‘Seer catcher’

Post 322 – apologises for not being around and causing Holby to reveal. Completely disagrees with Di’s analysis, trying to discredit it by saying it was biased by a preconceived view (fair enough) but thinks she is just a misguided innocent. The innocent part is right, not so sure about the misguided. The points she made in that analysis are good and though I’m almost trying to find him innocent at the moment I can’t help but see the same things. Suspects Rune because his post was saying things without actually being helpful. Suspects Firefoot by default though thinks she has been helpful so far. Beginning to think Lalaith a suspect, though no reasoning there which is odd.

Post 347 – agrees with TGWBS’s list suggestion. Again a quick look over the villagers. Finds Durelin and TGWBS innocent and Ang mostly so. Unsure over me, Lalaith, Di, Gurthang and Glirdan. Finds Rune guilty and votes for him. Again all reasoned, but some very concrete views over Durelin, TGWBS and Rune. He was right about one, though this could be due to innocent deductions or wolvish knowledge, so it is possible that he’s right about the other two.

Post 374 – lots of optimism due to Rune’s death, and sets out a list of things that should be looked at. Some suspicion of Glirdan for seeming surprised at who died, fair enough as with a list of known innocents is was fair to assume the deaths would be from it.

Post 377 – reinforces his belief that TGWBS is innocent because he thinks there was only one wolf in the Eomer bandwagon and that would now be Rune. Thinks one of Durelin, Ang and Firefoot is a wolf because they voted for Nilp. Thinks two of Glirdan, Lalaith, Gurthang and me is a wolf (eep, that’s really bad grammar). Thinks Glirdan’s vote for me might have been a wolf on wolf vote, but because it was Day 1 it’s likely that only one of us was. Says a wolf may well not vote first Day, so it doesn’t clear me. Also thinks Gurthang’s vote was wolvish.

Post 378 – says that he will look at Gurthang’s having saved his life.

Post 380 – thinks there may not have been a wolf in the Lhuna bandwagon, but that if there was one it would be Glirdan. Thinks there was only one wolf in the Holby bandwagon too, and since that was Rune it clears Durelin. Thinks Firefoot’s vote for Lalaith looks like a wolf on wolf vote, but thinks that since there was no need for one only one of the two will be wolvish. Suspicious of Gurthang for his throwaway vote.

Post 381 – says he thinks Rune may have been an intentional sacrifice, so there will be at least one wolf who voted for him.

Post 382 – thinks either Glirdan or I was the wolf in the morm bandwagon, and Gurthang the wolf in the Holby bandwagon. Keeps finding ways to point out TGWBS as innocent. Finds Lalaith to be more innocent than before due to her vote for Rune though it is possible that she is the innocent Lover.

Post 384 – thinks at least one, or possibly two wolves voted for Rune and thinks these are Firefoot and Gurthang due to vote placement, though mentions some suspicion of Ang as well. Finds Durelin’s vote for Rune innocent-looking due to prior suspicion and his general good feeling about her. Also lessened his suspicion of Glirdan because he voted for Sauce who thinks it unlikely that two wolves would vote for him. More comfortable about TGWBS and Lalaith because they voted for Gurthang, who he views as suspicious. Says my vote for Glirdan was a safe vote.

Post 385 – little bit of banter with Gurthang.


Ugh, I've just seen how much longer he goes on for. I need a rest. However, so far I get the feeling that doing more isn't going to help. He's acting just like an innocent Sauce, which is a perfect cover for a wolvish Sauce. However, his recent habit of being absolutely sure about people is the most worrying thing, as there is no way he can be so sure unless he knows, and the only way he can know is by being a wolf or the innocent Lover. His constant talking about the Lover's is also something of a worry, as he starts by demanding that we lynch Tali because he is definitely the innocent Lover, and then goes on to say that the Lovers must help us catch the non-Lover wolves because otherwise we have no chance.

I think him wolvish, and this latest little thing about suddenly wishing he could switch his vote from Firefoot to me just makes me even surer. Flip-flopping is generally considered a wolvish trait, and if he is so sure Firefoot is a wolf why wish he hadn't vote for her?

Anyway, I'll be back later to see the analysis through to the end.

[Anguirel]

The two main developments since I left have been Engels' vote and Kath's Sauce analysis. Both are interesting, in that they attract the attention of my lynch-instigating instincts.

Engels has two main suspects-Kath and Firefoot. The evidence for the guilt of Kath is far more concrete.

Originally Posted by Engels

Going over SpM's analyses from yesterday, I end up feeling more uncomfortable about Kath than either Gurthang or Firefoot, largely on her voting record. She conveniently doesn't vote on Day 1, votes for an innocent Jenny unlikely to be lynched on day 2, clinches morm's death - saving Rune - on day 3, and votes for an innocent Glirdan on Day 4. She often votes for minor candidates with no chance of lynching. On Day 5, She votes for Glirdan, potentially equalising with a wolvish Gurthang, and staring a bandwagon.

Yet he votes Firefoot. This seems to me an astute course of action for a wolf, latching onto the bloody-mindedness of the innocent Sauce to form a rapid consensus against Firefoot before anyone has had real time to consider. It's evocative of the Glirdan bandwagon of yesterday, actually.

Now, Kath's indictment of Sauce is largely based on the fact that she, like me, is disconcerted by his certainty. She says only a wolf or innocent lover could be so certain. Sauce is really certain. Ergo he is a wolf or innocent lover.

Rank tosh, m'dear. That's like saying "Only wolves have fur and growl. Sauce has fur and growls. Ergo he's a wolf." The point is, why would a wolf openly swagger about revealing fur and growling? Why would an innocent Lover or Wolf flaunt their certainty? I believe they'd be much more likely to affect an attitude of haplessness-like you, Kath, or like Durelin.

Like the North Wind the Pan Man blows
So Firefoot to the gallows goes.
Yet in my view t'would be more wise
To swing sly Miss Kath in the skies
And others too do inspire fear
(Durelin, Gurthang, Engels near)
In me-I wouldn't be dismayed
If those four were be scaffold laid.