WWJ X: Hithlum Zydeco Blues; Hísilómë in Hísimë

[Macalaure]

... and they're probably right. Few has been said or done (except by mainly Nogrod) yet and there is few to go on for me so far. The suspicions I have are vague at best.


proven innocent are mormegil and, at least to me, myself.

Nogrod and Jenny feel innocent to me as yet, but that may change rapidly.

I cannot put Valier anywhere, thus keeping up the tradition.

The ones I need to read more of before I can form an opinion about them are Mithalwen, Eomer and Kitanna.

I'm still slightly suspicious of Roa, and his last post made Kuru blink on my radar.

Originally Posted by said Kuruharan

However, from my perspective, things look pretty bad. The reason being that I have combed Signore Formendacil’s posts and found no evidence of Seerness until the last post (although he was pretty consistent in saying that morm was innocent, just not definite about it until the end). The upshot of this is I’m not sure how much we can read into the people who were going after him. That just needs to be said.

Well, of course Form didn't make his seerness so clear - he's not suicidal. If it had been clear, presumably no wolf would have bothered voting for him. Instead they would have silently finished him off in the night. His being a seer was not obvious and this is good for us, because the reasons given for his lynching were intentionally or unintentionally wrong. If we can sever the two, we might catch a wolf, but I have doubts that we can.

Originally Posted by that Dwarven Shade, again

Macalaure seems a bit defensive. Now, I’m always an admirer of a strong defense. But, really, he seems a bit tense.

I am not defensive. Not at all! And I am not tense.

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Well, of course Form didn't make his seerness so clear - he's not suicidal. If it had been clear, presumably no wolf would have bothered voting for him. Instead they would have silently finished him off in the night. His being a seer was not obvious and this is good for us, because the reasons given for his lynching were intentionally or unintentionally wrong. If we can sever the two, we might catch a wolf, but I have doubts that we can.

Mac: Form declared himself when he asserted Morm's innocence. The wolves killed him because they knew he was the seer.

Honestly, this makes me fairly confident of your innocence. I don't think a wolf is likely to pretend neither he nor his fellows picked up on Form's last-second declaration.

[Mithalwen]

Can't really post now. But I suspect Nogrod most partly for the reasons I stupidly deleted in my vote change....

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Well, of course Form didn't make his seerness so clear - he's not suicidal. If it had been clear, presumably no wolf would have bothered voting for him. Instead they would have silently finished him off in the night. His being a seer was not obvious and this is good for us, because the reasons given for his lynching were intentionally or unintentionally wrong. If we can sever the two, we might catch a wolf, but I have doubts that we can.

emphasis mine


Jenny, of course I managed to notice Form revealed himself in his last post (check my first post of toDay), but before, when the votes accumulated, nobody knew of it.

Originally Posted by me

Nogrod and Jenny feel innocent to me as yet, but that may change rapidly.

Indeed, indeed.

[JennyHallu]

Mac: Ok, you were referring to whether we could find wolves in those that voted for Form. Didn't realize that, but it's perfectly clear on a second reading. D'oh!

I'm going to take a look at bandwaggon voters then.

1. Glirdan voted Formendacil (Formendacil 1)
2. Macalaure voted Nogrod(Formendacil 1, Nogrod 1,)
3. Mormegil voted Glirdan (Formendacil 1, Glidan 1, Nogrod 1)
4. Roa voted Formendacil (Formendacil 2, Glirdan 1, Nogrod 1)
5. Eomer voted Mormegil (Formendacil 2, Glirdan 1, Mormegil 1, Nogrod 1)
6. Kitanna voted Glirdan (Formendacil 2, Glirdan 2, Mormegil 1, Nogrod 1 )
7. Valier voted Formendacil (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 2, Mormegil 1 Nogrod 1)
8. Kuru voted Eomer (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 2, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Nogrod 1)
9. Jenny voted Kuru (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 2, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Kuru 1,Nogrod 1 )
10. Formendacil voted Glirdan (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 3, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Kuru 1, Nogrod 1)
11. Nogrod voted Kitanna (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 3, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Kuru 1, Kitanna 1, Nogrod 1)
12. Mithalwen voted Glirdan (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 4, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Kuru 1, Kitanna 1, Nogrod 1)

So I'm looking at Roa, Kitanna, Valier, and Mith.

I have said before and shall say again: the most suspicious vote to me on a bandwaggon is the second. So Roa and Kitanna automatically look more suspicious to me.

I'm going to try to do an analysis of all four, but I am at work, so bear with me. It may take a while.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Poor dead and unheeded Mormy

My top 5 suspects in order are:

Eomer
Valier
Roa
Jenny
Kuru

I've learned that my instincts are better than my analysis often times. In the last two games I've identified two to three wolves and had them as my top candidates I die and nobody listens to what I had to say. Shortly after this I dropped my suspicion of Eomer so Valier and Roa were on top.

Oh that you would have listened to me

Kitanna looked odd but as I trusted Nogrod and I didn't know what to think of Kitanna I wanted him to take that and he did.

[Formendacil]

This is the first time I've ever made noises at the computer after being killed... noises along the lines of "Idiots! Idiots! Don't lynch him!!! ARGH!"

Yeah... I stand by what I was saying: Idiots!

[Macalaure]

Amazing game by the wolves. Just amazing.

Valier wasn't anywhere near my radar and Roa and Kitanna, well, you teamed up so obviously on Day 2 I couldn't believe you both were wolves.
Roa, you scare me.

And I still cannot believe Eomer is innocent. I didn't trust my eyes when I first read it. I'm sorry my language got a bit harsh at the end - I was just too sure and confident.

And chapeau to Nogrod, who was closest of all of us to identify the lupines.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

This is the first time I've ever made noises at the computer after being killed... noises along the lines of "Idiots! Idiots! Don't lynch him!!! ARGH!"

Yeah... I stand by what I was saying: Idiots!

20/20 hindsight is great isn't it? And it may not have been a bravura performance - but I lived longer than you ....

[Formendacil]

Actually.... I've got to ask...

Assuming that Glirdy and I had tied votes at the end of Day 1, would my assumption that I (having garned the votes first) have been lynched, be correct?

I've heard some whining that I didn't do myself any favours by waiting so long reveal my seerness- but the fact is that until the last minute (which is when I posted in revelation) I hoped to survive the Night.

By the time I posted that Morm was innocent, it looked plain to me that I was going to be lynched- so I made sure that the village knew who I'd dreamed of. Mith coming along and saving me merely meant that the Wolves had to finish me off, instead of the village.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

By the time I posted that Morm was innocent, it looked plain to me that I was going to be lynched- so I made sure that the village knew who I'd dreamed of. Mith coming along and saving me merely meant that the Wolves had to finish me off, instead of the village.

I realise that but it still seemed the best thing to do despite it make me look like a bungling idiot

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I realise that but it still seemed the best thing to do despite it make me look like a bungling idiot

Well for you, I agree it was best...

But for me, I had no idea you were coming back. By that point, it looked like my fate was sealed... and I didn't want my Seership COMPLETEY wasted.