Tol-In-Gauroth XXIV: Battle of the Band[Wagon]

[Nogrod]

This is just unfair! Yes, we made a good kill in the end of Day1, but I mean three innocents dead in a Day when only half of the people were able to vote (or something, haven't checked the actual numbers) including the hunter! And now Di, the Seer!

I don't know what Glirdy had in mind when picking Folwren... I just can't get it. And had the Downs worked yesterDay someone could have broken the tie last night and leave us with only one dead... But that's past and can not be reverted anyhow.

So I'm going to look through what Di said, but am a little confused about the prospect of talking openly to each other about what we find from her posts. I mean that there are at most two innocents she knew (clearly she had no wolves spotted) and having an open consensus over the innocent personalities will most probably be their downfall, an open death sentence executed by Night... Maybe we all should take our own tour on Di's posts and hold our tongues, only to come forwards if someone is actually trying to kill the possible innocents? I must see to Di's posting first before setting my mind on this.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

I'll only speculate about the obvious or about which looks like obvious.

It seems Di had no dream of a wolf as she voted for two innocents and her main suspects - as far as we know - have turned out innocents.

It seems pretty clear to me that of the yet living Diamond hadn't a dream on:
The Ka
Lommy
Eonwe
Rune

So that leaves as possible dreamt of innocents:
Celuien
Nogrod
Durelin
Boromir

The problem is, that from that lower list only two can be known innocents to Di, most probably only one as I'm afraid that Folwren was the other dreamee of hers... But we can be quite certain that her other dream was not Volo, Menel, Glirdy or Macalaure either, so there should be at least one innocent in the lower list. Not much but something.

Surely there are degrees of possibility in there and we should really check them out everyone. I have quite a strong opinion about the one dreamee (the other being Folwren?) in that list, but will not specualte about it yet. Let's not dress the table too ready for the wolves.

[Boromir88]

At one hand he just confirm what he has already said, but the last paragraph moves focus from him to me. . .could this be away for him make him self more secure incase people found this view on thing wolfish?~Rune

If I agree with you I'll say I agree with you. If I disagree with you I'll say I disagree with you. I'm straight forward and blunt, there's no hidden messages, nor clues, nor secret evil intentions throughout any of my posts. I say what I mean.

He expected more of me, because a jokingly post about me naming the wolves on Day 1.

Actually no I expected more of you because you said you would until your RL interview got in the way, which I think is understandable.

Not a case as such, but making small comments where he does not directly accuse me of anything, but if suspicion was cast upon me, he could with advantage use this to distance him self from me with or to cast further suspicion.

Again there's no hidden agenda in my posts, I say it like it is, and you can take it for face value. The most potentially dangerous people to the wolves can be the 'talkers' like Nogrod and myself. I say potentially dangerous, because if we're wrong in our suspicions than good for the wolves, if not though we can be a big thorn in their sides. I get the feeling that what we have going on here is the wolves have pinned us against eachother here. I've had no reason to suspect you, I found what you said to be quite reasonable. I just expected to hear more from you because you said there would be and I didn't see it (because of several different reasons). I think what the wolves have done is cleverly pinned us against eachother so we spin in circles over and over. While they're in the background watching the people who could be potential problems argue with eachother and lynch eachother. If that makes any sort of sense at all, I'm rather wordy at times, when I need not be.

I don't have the time right now to comment on why I think what I said above is what we have going on in this village, but I will get to that more when I return in a few hours.

I hope that this clarify my confused vote yesterday, I hope that today will be the day when I become an asset to this game rather than utter rubbish.

You're no closer today than you were yesterday.

This is just unfair!

Yah, yesterday was just a down right awful day in many many ways. That's life, time to move on, forget about it and let's turn this thing around.

[THE Ka]

Sorry for being gone so much yesterday, RL issues happen, and unfortunately it was one that I am still dealing with. One of my relatives passed away recently, and I only learned of this a bit ago, so, I've been busy dealing with this. Sorry again.

Gah, so much has happened... Okay, I am going to have to catch up with the rest of you, if I am going to have anything worthy to say. I guess I should start by answering a few questions, even if they are a bit repetitive and utterly worthless here.

” It looks like a deep insight to the wolf-mind. I mean not the usual "yes I can imagine how they thought" but actually how could you deduce the things you've said, the internal conflicts or bad co-operation, if not having the experience of being one?”

It’s not much deep insight, more of me mistaking I had enough time to play ww in my last game. I had to kill myself off because of a thesis paper, plain and simple, and my fellow wolves in that game were a bit concerned how they would do. So, because they understood that I was dealing with RL issues, they devised a plan along side setting myself up, for me to take a dive, so I could go attend to my needs outside of the game. Fortunately it worked out, and I left as the first lynching, with no ties as to who my fellow wolves were, only the fact that I wrote as suspiciously as I could, setting myself up for votes, ect. Afterwards, when I was able to watch on my own free time after writing my paper, how the game was developing (like watching a play, I might say, to see how everything was going) I wished to see how the plan that was set up was working. I would say, it passed with a 70% efficiency, due to reasons of the two remaining wolves being in time complications, thus one of them was caught, but it did take awhile at first to narrow the choices down for the players. Afterwards, it was quite easier for the players to find the last wolf. Essentially, the important element for the wolves was the fact that it was: The volunteering wolf was lynched on the first day, because they acted ‘suspicious’, thus leaving most of the other players on other days without much plausible evidence to use as a reference, and two, allowed the wolves to have a cover and appear to be thinking the same way as everyone one else (my fellow wolves in that game voted for me, ect).
Now, I highly doubt Volo was in a similar situation as this, but I will admit it is close in circumstances to how my fellow wolves acted in the game I have mentioned.
In all meaning, I am only being resourceful, because no one likes to be a fool in ww too many times, and because it is helpful to learn from the past.
Also, it would be utterly stupid to have any of the two wolves remaining to set themselves up, because this plan can really only work on the first or second days with one wolf. Any other days with more than one, and you’ve pretty much ruined the sport of actually playing at all in a game for everyone by doing this.

I will have to continue reading posts from yesterday and today to catch up with everyone, so, I am sorry this is such a short reply. I hope to have more to understand soon.

[Nogrod]

I've been asking myself the same question over and over again and somehow can't make it fit. Why did they kill Diamond? Did they have a hunch that she was the Seer or were they just picking her in random and getting lucky?

The problem in the last scenario is, that as a couple of my forefathers were lycantrophes, I know from their tales that getting done with those innocents who seem to have a hung of things or otherwise seem frightening is a major priority. Well, my forefathers were ethical enough to argue against the other wolves to let those "vocal players" live for the sport and balance of it, but the general feeling with my forefathers mates were that "the better player, the earlier kill". So we either have wolves who:

- play with cunning intelligence added with high moral standards (my lorebooks could make a separation of players here)
- were thinking Di actually hit a nail somewhere and decided to make sure of it before she could do more damage (my reasoning could make a separation of players here)
- are unsecure and try to make as secure kill as they can and do not take risks with the obvious ranger picks not to lose a kill (my hunch & lorebooks combined could make a separation of players here)

The problem surely is, that the lists based on these three cases would be very different indeed.

So if for instance myself, Boro, Rune, Celuien et.al. are all innocents and still alive, why didn't the wolves kill one of us? Was there something in Di that stood up for them as an alarm sign or were they just plain unsure about whom the ranger would pick and made a (lucky) trial of someone else? Or is someone or someones taking the gambit here and going for the less suspectible ones during the Nights just to hang around in the shade of other talkatives?

I'll come back with some more specific thoughts later as its getting late (RL) here...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Boromir there is no need to get angry or defencive. . .I admited I had almost no case, but I thought that you guys would like an explanation to why I voted for you!

Maybe it is better if I say it simple: something you said made me uneasy about you, Nogrod said somethings that enhanced this. I had no better alternative, ergo I voted you.

Now if you will excuse me, I have to go look on previouse post to see if I can build up a real case this time.

[Durelin]

Dang, that's not good...

Personally, I think Di was just a lucky catch for the wolves, and an unlucky catch for us innocents.

I see I was quite wrong on Mac...how shocking.

Hmm…let’s look at Di’s posts real quick…

Folwren, Durelin, or Glirdan, but of those three would vote Glirdan

Perhaps she dreamed of Folwren, and maybe myself? Well, that doesn’t help much, considering, and it certainly doesn’t help me at all…

Celuien feels pretty innocent to me at this time. Her posts have all been calm and reasonable. Maybe she gets her serenity from knowing who are wolves and who are not, but at this time I don’t feel suspicious enough to start speculating on that.

…

Day 1 is pretty much par for the Eonwe course as far as I know. If I recall correctly, he usually gets lynched just by annoying people with his random voting. Day 2 he speaks less, but gives a pretty well reasoned vote for Glirdan (as these things go). Right now I haven’t really got a feel on him either way, but I don’t think I’ve ever been able to get a feel on him in the past, so this isn’t surprising.

…

Augh. The idea of going through all Noggie’s posts just killed me a little. But since he has been very talkative I’ve already formed a feel for him, and I don’t suspect him at this point. His vote for Volo speaks well, unless it’s a fenrising, but I’ll worry about that later if I should have reason to. For now, I’m not even considering voting Noggie so I’ll skip re-reading all his posts.

…

I’m still kind of clueless about Rune, which made me uncomfortable enough to vote for him Day 1. However, I think I have enough suspicions of others after Day 2 to vote for one of them.

Okay, so there’s more of that, I know. Unfortunately I don’t have an abundance of time. But, I think we can say that Di was most suspicious of Mac, Glirdan, and Lommy yesterDay, followed by THE Ka and Rune. Of those, we know now that Mac and Glirdan were innocent. So that leaves us with:

Lommy
Rune
THE Ka

Lommy we just don’t see much of, but I’m starting to feel prepared to lynch her anyway. Rune has been very much like his forefather that I’m used to, who was actually a distant canine relative…I’ll have to see about him, though.

I feel basically the same as Di did about Boro and Nogrod, though I’m a little more suspicious of Boro.

Hmm…Celuien’s talk of wanting to save Glirdan is interesting…it is possible that she set herself up for this one. But, a wolf wouldn’t have bothered with such an approach, I imagine, if they only knew that Glirdan was an innocent, and I cannot see how the wolves would have suspected Glirdan to be a Hunter.

I feel the wolves were as blind as us innocents, and were just as ‘lucky’ as we were to catch a wolf on Day 1 to catch the Hunter and the Seer in one day and a Night (though I’d say us innocents’ bad luck played a part in that…).

Now, though…well, the wolves are probably feeling pretty dandy.

If I had to vote now, it would be for one of these candidates (listed loosely in order of suspicion, though it is very difficult to narrow things down right now): Lommy, Rune, and Celuien…

It’s rather quiet today… I will be able to return a little over an hour before Nightfall, but will have only a short time to decide and vote… I do hope there will be more to go on then, even if I will not have too much time to look over it.

Edit: Cross-posted with THE Ka and Celuien!

[Celuien]

All I can say about yesterday is arrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhhhh.

Voting record, with known innocents italicized:

1. Glirdan -> Folwren
2. Eonwe --> Glirdan
3. Macalaure --> Durelin
4. Folwren --> Glirdan
5. Durelin --> Mac
6. Diamond --> Mac
7. Celuien --> Mac
8. Boromir --> Glirdan
9. Rune --> Boromir

Yesterday's voting unknowns were Eonwe, Durelin, Boro, Rune, and me.
Non-voters were Ka, Nogrod and Lommy.

Just statistically speaking, I'd be surprised if no wolf voted even with all the problems the site was experiencing. Which might mean that a wolf might be found among Eonwe, Durelin, Boro, Rune, or me.

I feel pretty comfortable with Durelin's innocence.

Actually, the vote that makes me most uneasy from yesterday is Rune's for Boromir. When it was made, it was a throwaway that could have been used to break the disasterous tie between Mac and Glirdan. Yes, I know that Boro caused the tie, but looking at the times, it was a crosspost with the Mac votes. Glirdan, unfortunately, did make himself (as usual) suspicious enough to be lynched. I just have to wonder if any wolf would take such an exposed position as to fail to break a tie. It might have been a crosspost, but maybe not.

I agree with Nogrod's list of non-dreamt-of villagers based on Diamond's post here.

As for the list of possible list of people who were dreamt of, I don't think that I was one of them.

[THE Ka]

Was there something in Di that stood up for them as an alarm sign or were they just plain unsure about whom the ranger would pick and made a (lucky) trial of someone else?

Going back and reading up on what has happened since I've been gone, this is a good point.

The problem surely is, that the lists based on these three cases would be very different indeed.

Yes they would, but at least you’ve managed to break it down into possibilities, which will help figure out the reasoning (or lack thereof) for the wolves going after Diamond. It doesn’t seem like this is going to be in any ways an easy thing to figure out, and it seems like everyone is a bit lacking in free time, like myself.

If I’ve read up correctly, there is probably only one other person (besides Folwren, possibly) that diamond has dreamt about (or got to so far, until she was killed, and her dreaming stopped), that no one seems to know who they are yet.

I don’t think it was a person in question that she dreamt about, but possibly someone she was going to dream about, that might have had the wolves rid of her. Though, it doesn’t seem likely they could have known, unless they were keeping an eye on the pattern of votes, or activities of members, and took a really guess and with diamond’s posting attitude, and made for a kill.

Also, Folwren’s battle with being thought of as a wolf could have been another lucky diversion for wolves to hide in a bandwagon of votes, and possibly try to sway voting opinion away from more suspicious activities.
It just seemed a bit fishy how long that lasted, though, it was the second day, and we still didn’t have much to go on.

I don't know what Glirdy had in mind when picking Folwren... I just can't get it.

Yeah, I don’t understand that either… Either something random of Glirdan, or something that turned out very helpful, though sad. After this we really learned that Folwren was innocent, which cleared away any left over bandwagoning suspicions.

It seems like maybe our wolves are not playing entirely by expectations, but are being a bit more active instead of hiding, or making stealthy plans. I don’t know how to entirely explain it, but it this game just seems different from past ones I’ve played (however few), and I keep getting this nudge that the wolves are being more than what they are expected as, and doing some very crafty blending, and sly talking. Maybe being obvious or quite un-wolfish is a new tactic. It just seems plausible in this game right now.

I still have some catching up to do from being away yesterday, so, I’ll try to be back.