Tol-In-Gauroth XXIV: Battle of the Band[Wagon]

[Thinlómien]

Glad I'm not the only one around.

I reread Diamond the Seer's summary post. If from that I would have to make out who she dreamed of, I'd say Durelin and Folwren. She seems to be most sure of Foley's innocence and Durelin she frees of guilt with rather mystic reasons "I don't know why I don't suspect her". Maybe these were the clues why wolves were after her. I don't know.

Please, please fellow villagers, as stupid as is to do a double lynch is to narrow down the number of lynch candidates because Diamond might have dreamed of them. Seers can trust some people though they have not dreamed of them. Just like ordos do. And they can get it wrong, too. I think whole this list-business is leading us to nowhere.

Now, I'm off, but I will return about 2h before the deadline. I have a bad feeling that I won't be able to complete my Boro-analysis.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Boro

There is also the possibility that the Mytho is another ordinary innocent.

True. But that would also give us another known ordo - the mytho and the ordinary pick. Almost like having another dream...

I haven't time to go through an analysis right now, unfortunately. Gut feeling tells me that Nogrod and Ka are innocent. Eonwe's response to my question a few posts up felt right, which leads me to think that he is also innocent.

Boro has calmed the suspicions I had yesterday, which may or may not be a good thing. His lupine ancestors have been quite good at tricking me. Be that as it may, I'm back to trusting him again on the basis of toDay's posts, though this is subject to change at any moment. I have trouble feeling certain about him.

Which brings me to Rune. Rune's pressing me to explain the details of why I thought Glirdan innocent is unsettling. I can think of a couple of very good reasons to let that topic drop. He's my top suspect right now. And since I may not back it back before the deadline:

++ Rune

If Rune turns out to be a wolf, Boro's defense of Rune may implicate him. Otherwise, though I find it hard to get a read on Lommy, she may be the other wolf. I just can't tell.

[Nogrod]

I'll go with a couple of suggestions.

I fully agree with Lommy that the Seer is as prone to make wrong judgements as we others are. Di's vote for Mac yesterDay kind of underlines the fact.

But I still would like to cross-examine different possibilities we have here.

1.
Di's a known innocent by now, so there is no malice included in her thoughts and as it is highly probable that she knew at least of one innocent, let's se her list once again.

Of those yet alive she held innocent:

Durelin:

Durelin I feel fairly comfortable with at this time. Not sure why, as she hasn’t posted very much and her Day 1 post was kind of flaky. But I’ve seen Durelin play before as an innocent (heck, as a gifted) and this isn’t unusual and doesn’t mean she isn’t being helpful. In #98 she brings up a phrase of Mac’s that I also puzzled over – however I ended up just deciding that his grammar was off and am not sure whether anything more can be read into it. If it is a slip of a deeper kind, could be quite telling, but I don’t know, those kinds of phrase fudges can be innocently made in haste.

Nogrod:

Augh. The idea of going through all Noggie’s posts just killed me a little. But since he has been very talkative I’ve already formed a feel for him, and I don’t suspect him at this point. His vote for Volo speaks well, unless it’s a fenrising, but I’ll worry about that later if I should have reason to. For now, I’m not even considering voting Noggie so I’ll skip re-reading all his posts.

Boro:

Boro is kind of the same story as Nogrod for me. If I had been able to start this earlier and not forced to cram it into 2 hours, I’d go over his posts but I’m starting to do this shorthand. At any rate, he voted for Mac whom I was also a bit suspicious of yesterday (still am) so nothing about that raises red flags.

Celuien:

Celuien feels pretty innocent to me at this time. Her posts have all been calm and reasonable. Maybe she gets her serenity from knowing who are wolves and who are not, but at this time I don’t feel suspicious enough to start speculating on that. Nothing factual really supports it. She cast a vote for Volo at a time when putting him in the lead on a day notorious for spread out votes, so unless she was trying to fenris wolf him, I look favorably on her voting record.

She seemed to be unsure about:

Eonwe:

Day 1 is pretty much par for the Eonwe course as far as I know. If I recall correctly, he usually gets lynched just by annoying people with his random voting. Day 2 he speaks less, but gives a pretty well reasoned vote for Glirdan (as these things go). Right now I haven’t really got a feel on him either way, but I don’t think I’ve ever been able to get a feel on him in the past, so this isn’t surprising.

Lommy:

Well I don’t have much to go on. I really have nothing to observe on except that I dislike not having anything to observe on. She did seem to overestimate my posting, saying

I’m not sure who’s posts she was reading but it wasn’t mine. I mean, I did start in character, with links! And then said nothing of great consequence beside yawning over the Day 1ishness of the Day so far. So. Weird. Also, she called me cuddly. Like Snuggles the Fabric Softener Teddy Bear? Them’s fighting words.

Yeah, so basically, a whole lot of nothing. Shady….

The Ka:

Bit at a loss about Ka. She voted Volo for reasons I don’t quite understand, and since she turned out to be right could be seen as having good instincts or being in the know. Her vote was cast at a particularly safe time, being the first to vote for Volo, so this could well be wolf-on-wolf tactics. On Day 2 she has so far made some statements speculating on how the wolves are behaving, which kind of doesn’t give me much of an idea about anything.

Rune:

I’m still kind of clueless about Rune, which made me uncomfortable enough to vote for him Day 1. However, I think I have enough suspicions of others after Day 2 to vote for one of them.

So it seems that Di wasn't going after anyone in particular (except Glirdy and Mac! ), if not for Rune, but even that was a bit mild.

It would be easy then to conclude that the wolves didn't kill Di because they thought she was the Seer as they had no reason to believe her the Seer in the first place? I'm quite ready to buy into that argument, but I still have some reservations with it. Something just dosn't feel right here. I'll try to elaborate that during the Day.

2.
But let's take another list first. Volo's list of other people from his last post just before he died (and I agree with those who say he wasn't quite up to the situaton and was writing the stuff with the following Days in mind).

I have checked Boro's neat listing (#100) and have added Boro to the "innocent -list" and moved The Ka from innocents to the "don't knows / unsures". I hope that looks fair enough to you others.

Who Volo named as innocent:

Menel - known innocent
Mac - known innocent
Lommy - ?
Nogrod - ?
Rune - ?
Boro - ?

Who Volo was unsure about:

The Ka - ?
Glirdan - known innocent
Diamond - known innocent
Durelin - ?

Who Volo thought was suspicious:

Folwren - known innocent
Eonwe - ?
Celuien - ?

So eight questionmarks there and two wolves among them. If the list would have ben made by a dying wolf named Spm, Morm, Spawn, or the like I would be quite ready to raise my hands and contend that we might as well forget the list as it would be full of bluffs, double bluffs, triple bluffs... But with Volo I might like to have a look at it.

I'm inclined to agree with Boro that Volo mightn't suspect his fellows openly (it's possible, though). So it would leave the "unsures" and "innocents" to be the possible wolves. After I have taken out myself and Durelin whom I consider innocent, as well as Boro, not so trusty as with Durelin, but still. It leaves me with a list of Rune, Lommy and The Ka.


So did I learn anything from this?

If Diamond was up to something and the wolves got nervous, then it looks a little bad for Rune, Lommy and The Ka, I would say. But, but... Di's suspicions of them are so openly roundabout, that I'm not sure whether they would actually make the wolves nervous in the first place. Then again, the list based on Di's "suspicions", "know nots" or "unsure ofs" or whatever, happens to be the same list I get suspicious from Volo's posting.

Must think about this further...

[Thinlómien]

I might be stupid. I might be wise.

However, I and my left and right eye wish to come out of the closet.

I'm the original seer.

Diamond was the mytho who chose me on Night2. (Obviously, since she was discovered a seer.) So stop analysing her lists. She did not get any dreams. Sleepy hinted this:

Originally Posted by narration

Friends,
Time is scarce. Things have tourned sour. Diamond18 was your seer but do not despair there are things you do not see, things you do not know. Perhaps in the end this will work in your favor. I must be quick for I fear if I am found out there shall be nothing preventing the wolves from picking you all off. Your numbers have dwindled greatly.

I wish you luck!
The Phantom of the Battle-O-Bands

Rune, Nogrod and THE Ka are ordos. That I know.

Celuien, I guess you're the ranger and thus must die next night I fear. Your reluctance to lynch Glirdy and obvious innocence on Day1 led me to this. Please come out too and protect me next night. We'll win.

That leaves us with three unsures: Boro, Eonwe and Durelin. Of these two are wolves. I'm very inclined to believe Boro a wolf.

If Cel protects me next Night, I'll get one more dream and we win the next day, regardless of who I dream of.

Of course, if this tactic will not give results, you know I'm a bluffing wolf and can kill me... I can't think of any profit a wolf could get of this.

[THE Ka]

Ugh... Okay, well it looks like my RL schedule is getting in the way of this game again, especially today, Tuesdays are my long days, and this most likely will be my last post for awhile. So, I am probably going to have to make a vote in this one. If I am lynched for it, I really don't mind. My RL schedule is just messing this game up horribly, and I am falling behind in analyzing.

Originally Posted by Boro

The Ka (who seems more active today like she's anxious to keep the people who are talking against eachother and come under scrutiny) View this post.

( Again, refer to my lack of free time that has been developing as of late, and my relative's death. I'm just too far behind on the wrong day. )

I guess I can give one last bit of thoughts on my mind.

I'm not going to vote immediately for Lommy, due to I understand and agree her RL, she has said in the admin thread that she would had a limit to net access this week, and I can understand this.

Here is something I've noticed, and I don't know how helpful it is, but it just seems alittle, well, too friendly...

Originally Posted by Boro

There was no anger in my post, or at least none intended. It was defensive though, but that's how I am when I get suspected.

I don't know how to put this completely, but it just seems interesting to note how whenever rune or boro explain something about their voting, they will nit pick at little details (like most people do... it's natural in a ww game), then either one will convince the other, and then it is compliments and reassurances. It just seems a bit, well, fishy. I am going to have to agree with Thinlomien about Boro, but just because someone analyzes quite alot, does not mean they can leave all ends trimmed up. Over-analyzing can seem like a fuzzy warm blanket of safety, or barrier of truth, though in this case, I think quite alot of talk is as suspicious as no activity at all...

Originally Posted by Boro

If I agree with you I'll say I agree with you. If I disagree with you I'll say I disagree with you. I'm straight forward and blunt, there's no hidden messages, nor clues, nor secret evil intentions throughout any of my posts. I say what I mean.

Originally Posted by Boro

Let me give you this poker analogy, you don't want your opponent to know your plan, or how you are playing. Beacuse, if they do you are too easy to predict and the other players and they will make you pay for it. I find Werewolf to be the same, I don't want the wolves knowing my mind, so I won't say what I find to be wolvish. Now, if something does look wolvish to me, I'm going to jump out and say so, but I won't discuss what I'm looking for in order to find wolves.

There are no 'secret messages', because if following the poker method, they never will leave what is concluded in one's head. That I agree. You cannot trust anyone in a game of poker, the same as with ww.

Though, jumping out and saying something without much of a conclusion (over-analyzing can have not much of a conclusion too, as never saying much), is equally suspicious for wolfish behaviour, and is the same behaviour as voting for others who vote at random, as on the first day.

I am finding this plan, though I may agree with certain aspects of it, a bit too suspicious. Especially right now.

I do not have enough free time as others as to entirely write out a long, rambling post on this, but I think I have done as much as I can for now.


As I said before, Tuesday is my long day, so I will not have time to finish anything, and I completely understand voting for me on this fact. I have to leave now, and I better get my vote up, since I do not have any time to later, so...

++Boromir88

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Well, I for one belive Lommy, we are simply too clueles for a wolf to pull such a bluff.

and Celuin, I thought you were the seer. . . I then forgot that the Hunter and Ranger knew each others identety, that is why I was stupid enought to bring that subject up.

[Nogrod]

That was news, Lommy!

I was just writing something about these revealments, but now things seem to appear in a new light...

I'm all for lynching toDay one - or two! - of your candidates, namely Boro, Eonwe or Durelin. Assuming there is no way we get it totally twisted... But it looks good to my eye.

If we lynch both Eonwe and Boro toDay, with a good luck we win immediately. If not, we kill the last wolf toMorrow. And if neither of them is a wolf, then Lommy has fooled us and we lynch her toMorrow.

Nice. And we have already won, I suppose...

[Thinlómien]

But we must be careful with the vote so that the wolves can't mess it up. I unfortunately have to leave an hour before the deadline or so.

[Nogrod]

Although with a second thought I'm not so sure whther we actually manage to make a double lynch toDay as Boro and/or Eonwe (were they the wolves) might twist the vote so that it reults in only one lynch...

X-d with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Well I think then Boro should be the one lynched today.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Boro and Eonwe would be my choises as well.

Being genraly clueless I would never build a solid case, but Durelin and Flowren is the only ones I have never considered voting for.

[Nogrod]

Maybe we should not go for the double lynch in the first place.

Two wolves may generate three votes for Rune now as he already has one. And there are only four votes then left so we can't make two of those three to top Rune's possible three votes...

I have time to drop in toDay every once in awhile, so let's think what to do.

[Boromir88]

You are absolutely completely wrong, Lommy isn't the original Seer! Gah, this is so aggravating!