Tol-In-Gauroth XXIV: Battle of the Band[Wagon]

[Nogrod]

I'll go with a couple of suggestions.

I fully agree with Lommy that the Seer is as prone to make wrong judgements as we others are. Di's vote for Mac yesterDay kind of underlines the fact.

But I still would like to cross-examine different possibilities we have here.

1.
Di's a known innocent by now, so there is no malice included in her thoughts and as it is highly probable that she knew at least of one innocent, let's se her list once again.

Of those yet alive she held innocent:

Durelin:

Durelin I feel fairly comfortable with at this time. Not sure why, as she hasn’t posted very much and her Day 1 post was kind of flaky. But I’ve seen Durelin play before as an innocent (heck, as a gifted) and this isn’t unusual and doesn’t mean she isn’t being helpful. In #98 she brings up a phrase of Mac’s that I also puzzled over – however I ended up just deciding that his grammar was off and am not sure whether anything more can be read into it. If it is a slip of a deeper kind, could be quite telling, but I don’t know, those kinds of phrase fudges can be innocently made in haste.

Nogrod:

Augh. The idea of going through all Noggie’s posts just killed me a little. But since he has been very talkative I’ve already formed a feel for him, and I don’t suspect him at this point. His vote for Volo speaks well, unless it’s a fenrising, but I’ll worry about that later if I should have reason to. For now, I’m not even considering voting Noggie so I’ll skip re-reading all his posts.

Boro:

Boro is kind of the same story as Nogrod for me. If I had been able to start this earlier and not forced to cram it into 2 hours, I’d go over his posts but I’m starting to do this shorthand. At any rate, he voted for Mac whom I was also a bit suspicious of yesterday (still am) so nothing about that raises red flags.

Celuien:

Celuien feels pretty innocent to me at this time. Her posts have all been calm and reasonable. Maybe she gets her serenity from knowing who are wolves and who are not, but at this time I don’t feel suspicious enough to start speculating on that. Nothing factual really supports it. She cast a vote for Volo at a time when putting him in the lead on a day notorious for spread out votes, so unless she was trying to fenris wolf him, I look favorably on her voting record.

She seemed to be unsure about:

Eonwe:

Day 1 is pretty much par for the Eonwe course as far as I know. If I recall correctly, he usually gets lynched just by annoying people with his random voting. Day 2 he speaks less, but gives a pretty well reasoned vote for Glirdan (as these things go). Right now I haven’t really got a feel on him either way, but I don’t think I’ve ever been able to get a feel on him in the past, so this isn’t surprising.

Lommy:

Well I don’t have much to go on. I really have nothing to observe on except that I dislike not having anything to observe on. She did seem to overestimate my posting, saying

I’m not sure who’s posts she was reading but it wasn’t mine. I mean, I did start in character, with links! And then said nothing of great consequence beside yawning over the Day 1ishness of the Day so far. So. Weird. Also, she called me cuddly. Like Snuggles the Fabric Softener Teddy Bear? Them’s fighting words.

Yeah, so basically, a whole lot of nothing. Shady….

The Ka:

Bit at a loss about Ka. She voted Volo for reasons I don’t quite understand, and since she turned out to be right could be seen as having good instincts or being in the know. Her vote was cast at a particularly safe time, being the first to vote for Volo, so this could well be wolf-on-wolf tactics. On Day 2 she has so far made some statements speculating on how the wolves are behaving, which kind of doesn’t give me much of an idea about anything.

Rune:

I’m still kind of clueless about Rune, which made me uncomfortable enough to vote for him Day 1. However, I think I have enough suspicions of others after Day 2 to vote for one of them.

So it seems that Di wasn't going after anyone in particular (except Glirdy and Mac! ), if not for Rune, but even that was a bit mild.

It would be easy then to conclude that the wolves didn't kill Di because they thought she was the Seer as they had no reason to believe her the Seer in the first place? I'm quite ready to buy into that argument, but I still have some reservations with it. Something just dosn't feel right here. I'll try to elaborate that during the Day.

2.
But let's take another list first. Volo's list of other people from his last post just before he died (and I agree with those who say he wasn't quite up to the situaton and was writing the stuff with the following Days in mind).

I have checked Boro's neat listing (#100) and have added Boro to the "innocent -list" and moved The Ka from innocents to the "don't knows / unsures". I hope that looks fair enough to you others.

Who Volo named as innocent:

Menel - known innocent
Mac - known innocent
Lommy - ?
Nogrod - ?
Rune - ?
Boro - ?

Who Volo was unsure about:

The Ka - ?
Glirdan - known innocent
Diamond - known innocent
Durelin - ?

Who Volo thought was suspicious:

Folwren - known innocent
Eonwe - ?
Celuien - ?

So eight questionmarks there and two wolves among them. If the list would have ben made by a dying wolf named Spm, Morm, Spawn, or the like I would be quite ready to raise my hands and contend that we might as well forget the list as it would be full of bluffs, double bluffs, triple bluffs... But with Volo I might like to have a look at it.

I'm inclined to agree with Boro that Volo mightn't suspect his fellows openly (it's possible, though). So it would leave the "unsures" and "innocents" to be the possible wolves. After I have taken out myself and Durelin whom I consider innocent, as well as Boro, not so trusty as with Durelin, but still. It leaves me with a list of Rune, Lommy and The Ka.


So did I learn anything from this?

If Diamond was up to something and the wolves got nervous, then it looks a little bad for Rune, Lommy and The Ka, I would say. But, but... Di's suspicions of them are so openly roundabout, that I'm not sure whether they would actually make the wolves nervous in the first place. Then again, the list based on Di's "suspicions", "know nots" or "unsure ofs" or whatever, happens to be the same list I get suspicious from Volo's posting.

Must think about this further...