WWJ XII: "Oh the tangled web we weave..."

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Valier

Note from beyond: A Thing only dies when they sucessfully switch bodies with a villager. If the Ranger protects someone and the Things chose that villager a Thing does not die. Nothing happens on that night.

So I was wrong then...

But thank's for the information.

At least I have to think this general tactics stuff all over again. But first I will at last try to stick with what is actually said toDay. For however the rules go, this Day1 will be most likely as any other Day1 would be. The new rules start to bite hard only from toMorrow on (the things might anticipate the stuff to come, but most likely we will have to play with conventional wisdom / cluelesness here).

[Nogrod]

Okay.

Here are my thoughts so far. I will continue this, but these were the "easiest" to form an opinion to begin with...

Naria: Not posted yet, nothing to say.

Briseis: Not posted yet, nothing to say.

Eonwe: Not posted yet, nothing to say. But him being the quiet wolf in my last game makes me quite reserved with anything he will say or do in this game. I know it is unfair, but I will look at him very closely this time around, as and if he comes around...

Glirdan: Has basically just reported in... Nothing to say so far.

Gil: Two posts. Not much to take hold on. Defending Rikae somewhat but playing it down also:

Aye, Rikae is not that suspicous in my eye, but if she turns out to actually be a thing then we've all been played for fools this first day.

Voting Rune with no apparent reason given, but:

Thus my vote must go to Rune, it probably won't be to effect but its a start.

I might say this is "Gil-Galadish", even quite outspoken version from his family-tree... Hard to say. And with my last experience with Eonwe, I would not exclude him from my vote toDay. But surely, no good reasons to suspect him either but only to be certain about him...

Meneltarmacil: Two posts so far. I would have awaited more from him (not exactly on numbers but of substance). But he had a point also when saying:

Catching these Things and making 'em walk the plank will be tough, as you really can't trust anyone, even known innocents. Shiver me timbers, it be a dire scenario! I personally would only follow up on suspicions rather than rely on "known innocents" here, as they have a way of changing on you.

That might be said by an innocent or a thing alike. Over this one he only managed to go to and fro with Rune... Don't know but don't like either. I want to hear more from him.

Folwren: two posts as well. Ringing innocent to my ears. She is staunchly defending Rikae for her first post as she was the victim of a similar kind of suspicion in the last one. Sounds true to me. At least what can be said with some confidence is that on the basis of #42 they probably will not be things both of them. That would be too daring at least thinking of Folwren (Sorry Foley ). Generally she seems to be very sensible indeed and speaking the words of wisdom. Not my suspect for the time being (tomorrow may be different as this game will be crazy enough with the switching identities).

So seven people on this "easy" list. With the probabilities at least one of them is a thing... So who? Hard to say as some of them have not yet posted, but Menel should come forwards if he wishes to avoid my suspicions. Gil I'm a bit embarrased about (wouldn't like to be leading yet another lynch of an innocent Gil) as he justmade a post suspicious enough... And Eonwe I can't vote before he says anything and will (unfairly) look at him really closely this time...

Very hard to say.

Hopefully my look on the more difficult cases proves a better guide...

[Folwren]

Golly, this is a shockingly slow day. Where are the other people? Naria, Briseis, Eonwe? Glirdan? Hopefully they'll pop up soon.

Nogrod, nice to know your thoughts on everyone. I'm assuming that since you didn't mention Lommy, Rikae, or Mac in that last post, you want us to read your earlier posts on them? (And were you saying I'm not very daring? I nearly killed myself once, being too daring in RL. . .) But yes, you're right, in this instance. I like being careful in these games.

I understand how you feel concerning Eonwe, but you must try not to let it make you prejudice.

And that's all I've got to say.

-- Jack

[Meneltarmacil]

Arrr, I believe we be focusing a great deal on Rikae here, and it be enough to make me peg leg itch. Not that she be necessarily innocent, but I'd bet a bottle of rum that one of her attackers be a Thing.

Diverting attention onto a likely-sounding target be the way a Thing works. Takes it off them, that way, they don't have to defend themselves.

In particular, though, Macalaure posted something unsightly a while back:

Hmmm. I have to admit that your post would usually make me very, very suspicious of you. But this is your first game, so I'll be nice.

I've heard tales of stuff like this happening, and it looks bad. One Thing tries to preserve the life of another one by stating what's wrong with his/her post. The other Thing will often pick up on the cryptic advice, and the rest of the crowd doesn't seem to notice. If it comes to killings, the surviving Thing can cite honest suspicion later on. But yer not foolin' this old sea dog Mac. Even if Rikae be innocent, ye could be just castin' suspicion on her to keep us all occupied. What do ye have to say fer yerself, ya scurvy dog?

'Course, if Mac ain't the monster, Lommy catches me eye (the one without the patch be me only one, I'm afraid). Votes for Rikae, yet doesn't find her very suspicious? Lass, ye be a Thing tryin' to cover yer tracks with that statement!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

I've heard tales of stuff like this happening, and it looks bad. One Thing tries to preserve the life of another one by stating what's wrong with his/her post. The other Thing will often pick up on the cryptic advice, and the rest of the crowd doesn't seem to notice. If it comes to killings, the surviving Thing can cite honest suspicion later on. But yer not foolin' this old sea dog Mac. Even if Rikae be innocent, ye could be just castin' suspicion on her to keep us all occupied. What do ye have to say fer yerself, ya scurvy dog?

Just this: you're on the wrong track. I repeat my defense again. What Rikae said would have made me suspicious if it wasn't her first game. The reason I went into so much detail was to spark discussion.

'Course, if Mac ain't the monster, Lommy catches me eye (the one without the patch be me only one, I'm afraid).

This one sounds strangely familiar, doesn't it? A similar statement made my innocent grandfather lynch your guilty grandfather.

Originally Posted by Volo, on Nogrod

I'm suprised that nobody else has even mentioned him so far...

I'm waiting for his thoughts to be complete - impatiently so, if I may add.

[Nogrod]

... to be continued

Jenny: I have really mixed feelings about. THere is a lot I suspect in Jenny.
In a way she seems like a most "thingish" one I could fathom here. Nicely countering the arguments and going with the general suspicions, just adding enough to look as an independent one. Also her interpretations on Lommy and Mac seem to be very different from mine (which does not mean that I think Lommy or Mac to be innocents... I will have to look at them after these) and too easily come up with. I mean, the difference between a wolf and an innocent lies there where an innocent tries to find the culprits and when s/he is unsure about it, s/he takes back her/his words and leaves the situation in a baffled state, but the villain will be most happy to just go after someone, whoever is suspected.

Then this really caught my eye:

Rikae, dear, you really don't need to panic.

I'm not sure, or even ready to believe, that a thing would be this forward to her mate, but a thing might wish to "buy" some trust with this kind of a trick?

Lastly, on the thing I was mistaken, her point seemed firm enough:

Actually, I think a Thing dies as a result of a new one being made. If a new Thing is not made, the old one does not die.

She happened to be right, even though it was not said aloud in the rules (check the rules or my post #52). So how did she know it? The things must have thought of these rules beforehand and taken care to understand them correctly?

But she has been considerate and reasonable all the time too. Like a good innocent or a very good thing indeed...

So Jenny seems to be my top suspect this far. I must think about this as the one you have just checked looks the most suspicious by definition... And I have not looked with an evil eye to the postings of Volo, Rune, and the trio (Rikae, Lommy & Mac) yet.

Sorry. I'll post this and come to the others in a while. Nice to see you back Menel and making good points. You are easing my problems a bit here.

And Foley: No I'm not intending to say you should only look for my earlier posts. I'm trying to continue with these "analysis" to the end... as I have time to make them...

[JennyHallu]

Actually, Nogrod, I argued back and forth with Valier about the rules quite a bit before the game started, and I felt that she was very clear. Specifically, her use of the phrase "in turn" I felt clearly showed a relationship between the creation of a new Thing and the death of the old.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Actually, Nogrod, I argued back and forth with Valier about the rules quite a bit before the game started, and I felt that she was very clear. Specifically, her use of the phrase "in turn" I felt clearly showed a relationship between the creation of a new Thing and the death of the old.

You may be right. I'm not trying to deny it. I was very busy the days before the game started and have not followed all of the discussion in the TIGJ-thread. I will have to check that too.

And as I said, I have my hardest ones to check still... So being on the lead of my suspicions right now might both be false (as I might see you are genuine with you knowledge about the rules, f.ex.) and too early as I might find better candidates still...

Let's see. I wish to form my conclusions with any evidence I may find. As those of you who have played with my forefathers know: I hate random voting and will wish to have a reason for my vote. I still have a couple of hours before I have to go to sleep, so there is time...

[Nogrod]

... and still continuing.

Volo: Now here's a tough one! Very hard to get a reading. My family has played with his family twice. On the first time my grandpa' was a lycantrophe and would have liked to make a billion cases against him but as he was a major asset for my grandpa' he left him be and was finally "betrayed" by him and died to the benefit of the village... Last time my father found a hint clear enough to go for lynching his father and that one actually was a wolf. But as I believe people get smarter by every generation, I'm not sure if this one of the line of his family is as easy to pick up as his father was.

He goes after Mac in his first post (#23):

May I ask how did you manage to cross-post with Lommy? It does seem somewhat thingy to say so much so early, like we have seen before . But then again, he didn't actually say much thingy stuff, seems pretty honest to me, even if too much.

without actually saying anything. But excusing his own possible early vote.

On #29 he still keeps going after Mac with not the best of reasons:

"Hmm... I don't really agree with you. They can be really misleading. But I hope you don't suggest being one yourself yet? Anyway I somehow don't like the tone of your talk."

"Wasn't that already said?"

Also his vote was somewhat dubious, or what do you say:

Ok, this might be nearly as random as Gil's vote, but here it goes.
++Macalaure, too much explaining talk. Just like Boromir last game. I hope I don't make a big mistake here as Mac really is a usefull guy if innocent.

So just giving the air of making a "random" vote, but still he had already coherently suspected Mac with his earlier posts, as you can see. It should be noted that he defended Lommy consistently too.

All this might be looked as thingy behaviour or just a still newcomer trying to find a style of play... Not good, I say, but not the most suspicious either, or then is. I must see the rest before making any judgements about people...

PS. Volo: you have one retraction possibility! So your vote is not final! Think about it!

[Nogrod]

... and to be continued.

Kitanna: I find her most reasonable indeed. Her points on #40 on Rikae and other stuff seem well balanced and well made. A good Thing would like to act in that way, but there seems to be an air of straight-forwardness in Kitanna's posting. I'm not going after her toDay by any means.

Rune: Now this is another puzzle to solve...

In his first post (#17) he staunchly defends Rikae and suspects Mac somewhat. Then he goes to that "I'm the weawer" -stuff... What to think of it? A bad joke or a very fishy Thing?

In #38 he says:

I think I will direct my attention to Jenny, Volo, Mac and Lommy today.

but after that he does nothing in line with this promise. His last posts after that one are one that discusses the overall strategy and the second one just states that he will be away!

A Thing might do that: looking helpful and considered but then somehow failing to do anything... I know it's early on the Day and he will be one or two hours behind me in the time zones and thence it is possible he will make his words come true, but by now, it doesn't look releasing on him...

[Volo]

Now I'm most certain you're a thing! Now look at you, you changed your strategy completely after my post.

By his grandfather he means that my grandfather caught the last wolf and by that saved his village. So like Nogrod says himself, even in that village he had many points against me, but still he's grandfather was the wolf and my grandfather was a ranger.
Sorry to say so complicatedly, I mean he had many cases against me even when I was a ranger and he a wolf.

I might also say that Nogrod takes only the suspicious things I said into account, not the stuff I have said that might clear it...

I voted Mac, because I didn't remember about the retracable vote (thanks Nog) and thought that I couldn't post later, I was wrong. The things Nogrod quoted about me can be explained in my other talk.
It was a rather random vote, but the best I came up with, you yourself caught Boromir's father for such reasons.
And about Lommy, I don't recall defending her...

(I'm just a newcomer trying to learn to play, I'm not even so far as the style.)

I think I have enough reason to change my vote:

--Macalaure

++Nogrod

And before you accuse me again, wrongly, I'm off!

EDIT: cross posted with Noggie's last post

[Rikae]

OK, I''ve read through the day's posts, and there are a couple of things I'd like to respond to.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Rikae's first vote makes me feel very uneasy. Her constant return to the fact "I'll probably be lynched" and "My death will prove my innocence" is unnerving. Also I'm a bit suspcious of the comparsions of other games, when comparing this villages to other villages could have no real bearing in the end.

My goodness. First of all, I haven't voted yet! I take it you're uneasy about what my vote will be?
As far as comparisons with other games go, if we couldn't learn from past games, a rookie would be on equal footing with an experienced WW player, no?

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Her points in the first post state the obvious and though she hasn't taken all sides into consideration I think she is thinking logically. I was extremely worried about her after reading her first posts, but my susipicions have lessened a bit after reading further.

I take it logical thinking makes you uneasy? I'd have to disagree with you there - I find illogical posts far more unsettling.
Mac still seems to be simultaneously trying to draw attention to me and to paint himself as my supporter, and I find it strange, to say the least.
Folwren, on the other hand, seems sincere, and
Nogrod, who as I post has not yet given his opinion of me, has been fairly straightforward and logical.
Volo seems nervous, but maybe that's just his style.

Originally Posted by Volo

You still haven't answered why Lommy should vote you instead of Mac. Why would you have voted yourself? Do continue...

I didn't answer because I'm not sure I understand what you're asking. Lommy did vote for me, not Mac - as far as why, I assume it's because I was "on the map" and there was nothing to prevent her voting for me. If I had to vote early, I would have voted for someone who had been vocal and quick to put forth theories, and that describes Lommy, Mac and myself. I didn't expect Lommy to vote for Mac because they give the appearance of having something between them that prevents them from suspecting each other - as I said before.
Mene appears to be suspicious of Jenny, Mac, Lommy and myself, and since I suspect the other 3 and know I'm innocent, I'm inclined to believe Mene is also innocent...but we shall see. It's too early to have any real suspects, and I, for one, am most uneasy about those who are quickest to accuse.

EDIT: X posted with Nog, Mac, Fol, Jenny, Mene and Volo

[Volo]

"Back for a little time. But only little time. I did have time to read all the stuff, but I confess that I'm no good at this and don't make much sense. I know my playing-style isn't great and that it's just like my father's who was cursed in an other village not so long ago, but that's what we are.

I have already voted, my mistake because of other stuff happening in my life. I'm not a person who would like to stay out of discussion and too often jump into discussions that don't concern me. It is true that I rarelly make sense when I say something, but rarelly isn't always. Now this all defending myself might sound suspicious as I don't seem to be in any great danger of being lynched anyway.

Well, now to something that should make sense. The problem is that I can't find much stuff like that, sure I could just quote something and say how thingy that would be, but...

Originally Posted by Rikae, to Lommy #33

No hard feelings, though. If I were you, and had to vote early, I would have voted for me also, or Mac, simply for being vocal.I couldn't see you voting for Mac, since in spite of your disagreements, neither of you seems to suspect the other.

You still haven't answered why Lommy should vote you instead of Mac. Why would you have voted yourself? Do continue...

An other person who I would like to point out is Nogrod, I find his style changed again, this time he isn't attacking straight. Maybe it's too early. He has also said some stuff that isn't really necessary. (#41 and #46 don't tell us anything new. The ranger talk sounds strange.) Also he and Jack/Folwren seem to support each other, well, Jack does seem rather innocent.

Nogrod's summary so far seems too simple, somewhat like my father's summary last game, but that would make him innocent-like... I'm suprised that nobody else has even mentioned him so far...

Ok, I go to sleep. Now or really soon."

[Meneltarmacil]

As for JennyHallu, she really don't seem to be contributing much. After the first two posts or so, she only mentions the rules of the game. I find hat a bit strange. She's generally tryin' to look helpful, but she be contributing too little here...

Anyhow, I be most likely to vote fer Thinlomien or possibly Macalaure at this point.