Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXV: All Star Crossed With Nowhere to Go

[Lhunardawen]

Okay, so morm killed Rune and Lommy. That means the remaining baddie killed Kitanna and Jenny. The question here now is why? And who would do it?

Both of them have been pretty vocal, though they both really didn't have very certain suspects before they died. Kitanna voted for Menel because nobody thus far had protected Farael, and thought he couldn't be the Lover in that case. Jenny voted for Valier because of her speechlessness, then the next day for Holby because she was acting weirdly. She also made an analysis of Mac, saying that he seemed careful but his being vocal yesterDay made her feel better.

I'm honestly not sure where this is supposed to go. But from past experience, I must say this is not looking good for Farael, in my perspective. Farael could have killed Kitanna, or as Lover prompted the Bear to do so, saying that it would be too obvious a set-up for him to be suspected to be behind it. It's a stretch, but it has happened before.

*yawn* It's seriously late over here already, and I'm sleepy. I hope some hours of sleep will help make things clearer for me. and more things said while I'm asleep to chew on when I wake up. I'll particularly be looking at Valier and Farael and Durelin, who has been quite dodgy as I see it. Good night everyone, play nice and don't fight.

*snores in a ladylike manner*

[Macalaure]

These are my current opinions.

Durelin: not sure, need to look at her again

Farael: more innocent than guilty

Kath: probably innocent

Lhuna: thought her innocent so far, but I'll have a second look at her

Rikae: one huge question mark

Valier: suspicious, but I'll wait for more input from her

Mac: as innocent as one does get


I will return later with some thoughts about Durelin and Lhuna.

[Farael]

Hey, I'm not quick to accuse Rikae, I just said that unless we have a clear candidate perhaps we should get rid of that question mark. Now she's said something, which is good, but she has said very little. I can play the waiting game today, I'm in no hurry to cast my vote.

Now, here's another far-fetched theory... the ones I like the most. Jenny was killed last night, right? Who would want to kill Jenny? Well, let's re-phrase that. Who would be benefited the most by Jenny's death?

I don't know if I'm the only one who was thinking that Valier and Jenny were an all-female team of baddies... but I believe at least SOMEONE mentioned that before.

Now, Valier knew she was not in a team with Jenny, thus if Jenny died perhaps most of the suspicion would be lifted. That's pretty beneficial for a werebear isn't it?

[Rikae]

Looking over the old posts ... what have we here? The werebear killed Kitanna on Night 2 and JennyHallu on Night3, as Lhuna helpfully points out.

On day 1, Kitanna was throwing quite a bit of suspicion in Farael's direction before switching to the (werecreature started) bandwagon for Menel.

Jenny, however, seemed mostly suspicious of Holby, who's now dead. I can't find anything in her posts that would point to who else would have seen her as a threat. Of course, it may be that the werebear targetted either or both of them not because of the victim's suspicions, but because s/he suspected her of being another werecreature/a lover/a gifted.
We have so little to go on.
I'm going to stick around & reread the thread yet again. The problem is, everyone either knows nothing, or only knows the status of one person, so there isn't much of a trail to follow.
One thing that comes to mind, though, is that the two remaining baddies don't really care who's lynched at this point, as long as they can protect themselves. Like baddies in any game, they are going to be most prone to quick accusations with flimsy reasoning than innocents, but beyond that, there's not much that's likely to distinguish them.

[Rikae]

Hmm, it also seems Jenny was throwing some suspicion in Mac's direction:

Again, seems to be a careful post...short and to the point, unlike Mac's usual eloquence. But again, nothing seems really suspicious, except that I would have protested more to three people thinking I was suspicious. That might just be me, I tend to be really defensive, but it's a thought.

She didn't end up voting for him, but it's possible he may have been feeling some pressure after her long post analysing him (and saying she might continue).
I may have to look more closely at Mac.

[Macalaure]

Durelin:

Opens the first day with thoughts about the were-creatures in general. I agree with her points.
This is followed by her thoughts about everybody. Of the ones still alive she thought Farael played foolish and so did Lhuna, Valier and me. She votes Kitanna for flying under the radar.
She criticises Nogrod's approach as unfair towards Farael.

The next day she checks in late. She explains her vote, says she likes Holby's plan but votes her anyway.

That's really not much to go on. She was afraid people might try to fly under the radar. So am I right now. Let's see what today brings.


Lhuna:

Early random vote the first day. I dislike such things, but well...

Day 2 she corrects morm about Durelin. She says Farael stands out and she doesn't understand his vote, which I don't understand, to be honest. Other than Farael she suspects Valier, Fin and Holby. Then she tells the silent ones to talk.
She then tries to analyse the kills, but she does so without conclusions. RL interference keeps her from voting.

Today she admits that she would have liked the lynching of Rikae, even though Rikae already checked in. It could be an attempt to defend Farael, but looking at her past behaviour towards him, it's unlikely. I guess she's just honest. Thinks Di might have made the last couple an all-female one.
Again she looks at who would kill Kitanna and Jenny. She mentions Jenny's analysis of me, but thinks I look better now. She remains suspicious of Valier and Farael and thinks Durelin is dodgy.

Looking only at the facts I'm getting a little suspicious about her. We didn't get one real vote from her yet. She is very consistent in her suspicions though. Under the line I still find her innocent, but not so clearly anymore.

edit: crossed with Rikae

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

She didn't end up voting for him, but it's possible he may have been feeling some pressure after her long post analysing him (and saying she might continue).
I may have to look more closely at Mac.

Please, do so.
But concerning the pressure, you're right, but Lommy and Valier put pressure on me as well, and more from my point of view. I probably would've killed one of those two if that would have been my plan. But it's a risky plan, after all.

[Rikae]

Farael, you make an interesting point about Valier. Going back over her posts (she seems to have been fairly quiet), I find this:

I am going to vote for either Farael or Holby, unless something big sways me, which I highly doubt.

I'm not sure what to make of this. If Farael (or Mac, for that matter) had killed someone who was openly suspicious of him, it would have left too clear a trail. Then again, trying to get her lynched with such convoluted reasoning is also going to draw scrutiny upon one. At least, it strikes me as convoluted, since I can't find any serious speculation that Jenny & Valier were a couple. It doesn't seem to have been a general suspicion, so I don't see how it would have made Valier seem particularly innocentish when she didn't die with Jenny.
The fact that Fariel advanced such an argument worries me.

EDIT: X posted with Kath

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Rikae

The fact that Fariel advanced such an argument worries me.

Good, it seems that when people worry about me I'm on the right track.

I like Kath's analysis of Macalure, even though I know I'm neither a lover nor a werebear, thus she is wrong. After that analysis I'll venture that
a) I think she's sincere
b) I think she might be on to something with saying that Macalure may be trying to get us off the trail.

I'm honestly all over the place right now though, it's confusing when I don't have one target to lock-on

Yet Rikae, your going after me may be understandable yet it seems to me a bit too defensive. It might just be a coincidence, I did suggest we lynch you before you had a chance to talk, and yet you said that your main man was Morm.... and now that you ARE talking, you are going after me. Scared that they'll listen to me?

Right now I'm leaning towards Valier or Rikae. As a matter of fact, they have BOTH been rather silent. One of them has been having RL issues and I won't say it's all a big plan to confound us but.... what's up with Valier?

What if the last remaining duo has decided to stay as silent as possible, knowing that most of us will be retitient to lynch someone who has not said much.

[Kath]

Macalaure:
Post 10 – an ‘if’ post. Basically saying what he would or would not do as a lover. This is often viewed as suspicious because he now has to do is act in a slightly different way to what he set out as his behaviour if he was a lover. Says he’s let Lhuna’s assertion that she will vote randomly pass for toDay. If we’re going for pure association he and Lhuna could be the last pair, mentioned but not overly suspected.

Post 29 – defends Lommy a little and is correct in asserting that there is no connection between Lommy and Holby as we now know. Makes no decision on Farael. Finds Rune to be behaving oddly for attacking Farael so strongly.

Post 35 – says that though he fins Farael most suspicious he will vote for Rune in order to create a little competition. Now if he and Farael are the last lover pair how perfect that scenario was. Oh, I won’t vote for my lover for the good of the village. Here also begins the assertions of innocence.

Post 66 – much about how the odds are against us. Talks of the bandwagon against Rune (and my Mac but could you have made that any more confusing? I thought you were talking about what had happened during the Night for ages so nothing made any sense!) and says that the fact that both Naria and arcticstorm voted for him was odd seeing as they were a couple. How so Mac? Some suspicion of Holby and Fin, again doesn’t pass any judgement on Farael.

Post 69 – makes lists, and strangely puts Fin on the innocent list. Little flip flop there or did I misread the earlier bit? Is suspicious of Valier and Holby due to their votes. Points out that Lommy seems overly sure of Lhuna’s innocence. It is possible that, due to Lommy’s staunch defense of Lhuna for much of her life, Lhuna could be a lover and have killed Lommy as it seemed safe, in which case it seems unlikely that Mac would be the other half of that pair as pointing out the plan would be a bit bold.

Post 81 – defends morm against Farael and is against the ‘lynch all the males plan’. Fair enough really him being male and all and the fact that in this case allowing yourself to be lynched if you are innocent isn’t really going to help the village much, but of course if he is a lover it’s a good self-preservation argument as well.

Post 83 – defends himself very calmly. If he’s a lover then this makes sense, having seen the reactions the previous Day to being overly defensive. Explains his vote for Rune, which I mentioned earlier.

Post 85 – answering Farael’s questioning about why morm wasn’t killed. Another ‘if’ post.

Post 93 – mild attack on Lommy for putting people in groups based on feelings only.

Post 102 – decides not to vote Lommy because he doesn’t want to spread the votes. This may be true, but I wonder whether it was so he didn’t get accused of a knee-jerk reaction, which is what his basis of accusation against Valier is. Decides not to vote Farael or Holby because he is finding them less suspicious so votes Valier for her previous vote.

Post 117 – says he’ll look at Farael but really the lovers are likely to be two females now, putting us off the scent? Then he says if we use these two days to lynch him and Farael the village loses. Now, how does he know Farael isn’t a lover? Or perhaps, he does know Farael is a lover and is defending him. I’m sorry, I can understand my logic here but I’m not sure if anyone else can. He’s saying the village will lose if he and Farael die. So it’s like he knows that Farael is innocent. He can’t know this, not unless he’s the Watcher and we know he’s not. Anyway, asks Valier to speak more and asks Farael why he went after Rikae so quickly.

Post 120 – does a little analysis of Farael and finds him innocent although he finds many questionable things along the way. As to the ‘would a lover be that outspoken with a point’ I can only say YES from previous experience.

Post 123 – does another little list and has Valier as suspicious, no idea about Rikae, and the rest appearing as innocent. Which, unless we’re counting Rikae as his second suspicion, leaves him with one too many innocents.

Post 127 – returns with analyses of Durelin and Lhuna. Now thinks Durelin is flying under the radar and Lhuna less innocent than she appeared to him before.

Right now I think Mac is guilty. I think he could very well be in a pair with Farael due to the ‘he’s suspicious but not too suspicious’ talk that’s been going on there.

However, I have also become a little suspicious of Lhuna along the way. If she is guilty I don’t believe Mac is for the reasons mentioned above.

Alright, now, I admit that I went into this with the pre-conceived idea that Mac is guilty. Therefore I welcome any and all opinions on this because I know it’s biased.

[Rikae]

I'm more inclined to think Fariel is a werecreature/lover than that Mac is, at this point.

Originally Posted by Kath

an ‘if’ post. Basically saying what he would or would not do as a lover. This is often viewed as suspicious because he now has to do is act in a slightly different way to what he set out as his behaviour if he was a lover.

Although it can also be the post of a helpful villager. The question is, are the points he raised sound in their own right? As far as I could tell, it was fairly straightforward, but I could be wrong. I think if he's a lover/werebear some logical inconsistency might be found in his fake "baddie strategy".

Post 35 – says that though he fins Farael most suspicious he will vote for Rune in order to create a little competition. Now if he and Farael are the last lover pair how perfect that scenario was. Oh, I won’t vote for my lover for the good of the village.

Not necessarily, though, since he didn't even attempt to make a convincing argument for lynching Rune, as he should have if he wanted to sway the vote away from Farael.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Kath

Post 66 – much about how the odds are against us. Talks of the bandwagon against Rune (and my Mac but could you have made that any more confusing? I thought you were talking about what had happened during the Night for ages so nothing made any sense!) and says that the fact that both Naria and arcticstorm voted for him was odd seeing as they were a couple. How so Mac? Some suspicion of Holby and Fin, again doesn’t pass any judgement on Farael.

I don't know what you are talking about. I think I made my points quite clear. First, the bandwaggon was against Menel, not Rune. I wondered why arctic and Naria were the first to vote Menel of all. It surprised me that a couple would work so close together.

makes lists, and strangely puts Fin on the innocent list.

Mac finds Fin suspicious. Fin explains himself. Mac buys Fin's explanation. Mac turns out to be wrong. What's the point?

Post 93 – mild attack on Lommy for putting people in groups based on feelings only.

If it looks mild to you then it does not look the way it was intended. I was seriously suspicious of Lommy.

Post 102 – decides not to vote Lommy because he doesn’t want to spread the votes. This may be true, but I wonder whether it was so he didn’t get accused of a knee-jerk reaction, which is what his basis of accusation against Valier is.

Post 117 – says he’ll look at Farael but really the lovers are likely to be two females now, putting us off the scent? Then he says if we use these two days to lynch him and Farael the village loses. Now, how does he know Farael isn’t a lover? Or perhaps, he does know Farael is a lover and is defending him. I’m sorry, I can understand my logic here but I’m not sure if anyone else can. He’s saying the village will lose if he and Farael die. So it’s like he knows that Farael is innocent. He can’t know this, not unless he’s the Watcher and we know he’s not. Anyway, asks Valier to speak more and asks Farael why he went after Rikae so quickly.

*sigh*
2 guys, 5 girls. The probability of a female-female-pair is pretty high. I feared that somebody would bring up the "Lynch the males!" campaign again (Durelin said she liked it). I'm just saying that this won't work. Of course Farael might be a lover. I told everybody to look closely at him and closely at me. Still I'm counting with an all-female-pair at the moment.

Post 120 – does a little analysis of Farael and finds him innocent although he finds many questionable things along the way. As to the ‘would a lover be that outspoken with a point’ I can only say YES from previous experience.

I just thought that, since it almost got him lynched, his behaviour wasn't that smart if he is a lover. If you have another opinion, great, take a closer look at him and tell us of your findings.

Post 123 – does another little list and has Valier as suspicious, no idea about Rikae, and the rest appearing as innocent. Which, unless we’re counting Rikae as his second suspicion, leaves him with one too many innocents.

Strange. I count 1 suspicious, 2 uncertain, 2 innocentish and 1 innocent. I bet if I had found 3 suspicious you would've criticised it's one too many.

Alright, now, I admit that I went into this with the pre-conceived idea that Mac is guilty.

I barely noticed.

crossed with everybody since Kath

[Kath]

Ok I have to vote as I'm off out in a bit.

++MACALAURE

My reasoning is from the analysis I just did.

I have no idea if I've cross-posted with anyone. My net is screwing up beyond recognition and it's taken me over 5 minutes just to get this damn page open!