Did Saruman Believe He Could Master The One Ring?

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Phantom you said:

I just thought I'd mention that every bit of speculation we do based on Gandalf's words is guess work at best.

Boro you said:

everything above is Gandalf's speculation

Ok, sure. But then isn't this...

Originally Posted by Boromir88

there was an error that Sauron thought Saruman had the palantir, however there was another error Sauron made and it dealt with Pippin, this is stated with the sentence talking about Sauron's mind being filled with Pippin's image and voice. Why would Sauron be so concerned about what Pippin looks like and how he talks if he wanted Pippin for sport? No, he's concerned about how Pippin looks and how he speaks because he has something Sauron wants...the most important thing Sauron wants (and not just information).

...and this...

Originally Posted by The Phantom

I think Sauron thought Saruman had captured the Ring bearer! Why else get excited and send a Nazgul? Would Saruman go to the Shire and kidnap Lobelia and show her to Sauron? Nope. What's the point? There's only one reason for Saruman to show off a hobbit to Sauron- to say "I've got the Ring!"

...not to mention this...

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Did Sauron stop to consider the likelihood of Saruman “calling him up” in these circumstances? Possibly. Possibly not. If he did, my guess is that he thought that Saruman was prepared to hand the Ring over to him in return for favour, rather than risk having Sauron’s full force unleashed upon him. Sauron was an over-confident fellow who regarded himself and his capabilities highly and assumed that others would do so too. Alternatively, he may have thought that the captive Hobbit had been left alone by Saruman with the Palantir and had made a desperate attempt to call for help.

...also speculation?

Can someone please explain to me why speculating about what Gandalf said is somehow less compelling or convincing than speculating about what Sauron thought?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

Can someone please explain to me why speculating about what Gandalf said is somehow less compelling or convincing than speculating about what Sauron thought?

I am quite happy to accept that Gandalf has got it right. And Sauron thinking that Saruman had captured the Ringbearer is wholly consistent with what Gandalf says, namely that:

1. Sauron wants the Hobbit for something more than information.
2. Sauron wants the Hobbit urgently.
3. Sauron's mind is filled with the voice and the face of the Hobbit.
4. Sauron has made an error that will take some time to rectify.

Add to that the natural interpretation of Sauron's use of the word "it", particularly (as Boromir88 notes) after having addressed Pippin personally using the word "we".

So, speculation it may be. But it is speculation based firmly upon what we are told.

In any event, no one asserting that Sauron did not believe Pippin to be the Ringbearer has put forward any convincing explanation as to why Sauron (to Gandalf's mind) would be so obsessed with this Hobbit and why he would want him so urgently, if not only for information.

The suggestion that he anticipated Pippin's arrival at Barad-Dur so eagerly simply because he wanted another torture victim is hardly credible.

[Raynor]

He has no captive to send. He has no Stone to see with, and cannot answer the summons.

Don't you guys think there's something missing here? That's right, the ring. Gandalf doesn't think that Saruman will be held accountable for the not having the ring - just for the hobbit and palantir .

[The Saucepan Man]

He has no captive to send. He has no Stone to see with, and cannot answer the summons.

Captive = Ringbearer.

I can sense a poll coming on ...

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Captive = Ringbearer.

I can sense a poll coming on ...

Take lots of vitamin C and stay in bed until it passes.

[Raynor]

I think that Gandalf would make a great error of judgement to believe that the ringbearer would hold a higher status than the ring in Sauron's mind, so as to not even mention the ring, but mention the ringbearer. If Gandalf genuinely believed Sauron expected to find the ring in Isengard, he would definitely have said something like "He has no ring to give, he has no captive to send. He has no Stone to see with, and cannot answer the summons". To underline, if even necessary, the importance of the ring to Sauron, compared to anything else, I will give these two quotes:

Originally Posted by The shadow of the past, FotR

So he is seeking it, seeking it, and all his thought is bent on it. It is his great hope and our great fear

Originally Posted by The last debate, RotK

If he regains it, your valour is vain, and his victory will be swift and complete: so complete that none can foresee the end of it while this world lasts. If it is destroyed, then he will fall; and his fall will be so low that none can foresee his arising ever again.

With all this emphasis on the ring, why wouldn't Sauron send all his nazgul, why only one, when all his victory would be at hand?

[The Saucepan Man]

I repeat ...

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

In any event, no one asserting that Sauron did not believe Pippin to be the Ringbearer has put forward any convincing explanation as to why Sauron (to Gandalf's mind) would be so obsessed with this Hobbit and why he would want him so urgently, if not only for information.

[Raynor]

In Unfinished Tales, The hunt for the ring, it is stated that Sauron was in great haste and fear when he heard that his enemies have captured Gollum. Apparently, he fears for anyone who has access to those with relevant information about the ring. Sure, he wants information for himself, but he also wants to hold off others from obtaining that information. I think that in this "others" we can safely include Saruman, of whom Sauron became aware that his servants waylaid or misled his own agents.

[Boromir88]

Can someone please explain to me why speculating about what Gandalf said is somehow less compelling or convincing than speculating about what Sauron thought?

By saying it's Gandalf's speculation, I'm actually implying both. Bottom line is we don't know what Sauron thought, we only know what Gandalf thought he thought. So, it would be incorrect for anyone to assert what Sauron truly thought (through Gandalf's thought), because we don't know what he actually thought except for what he tells Pippin through the Palantir. Which, what he tells Pippin through the Palantir seems to be:

1. He and Pippin will meet again.
2. He believes Saruman has something that isn't his to have.

Edit: Cross-posted with Raynor:

True, but according to Gandalf Sauron didn't just want Pippin for information, he actually believed he (or Saruman) had something else of importance that wasn't Saruman's to have. And I think we can say Gandalf's speculation in this case is accurate because we know what Sauron said to Pippin through the Palantir and he believed Saruman had something that wasn't his, and that Sauron will send for it.