Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Feanor of the Peredhil · 11-12-2006, 07:51 PM

Day One has begun.

the phantom · 11-12-2006, 11:24 PM

I have a few things to say. Most of them are obvious, but I'm a loudmouth and feel the need to fill up space.

1) The WWs don't know each other, therefore all votes are meaningless. Everyone will vote the way an innocent would vote, because the only thing anyone knows is who they are, and so everyone will try and preserve their own life.

2) Kills might be meaningful.

3) One of the WWs might kill his/her buddy. I'm thinking there might be a way to very slightly increase the chances of this happening, but the instant I say it the ploy won't work. Which leads me to my next point-

4) THINK before posting anything strategic!! We have very very very few chances to do something good strategically because Fea has done all she can to make it a pure luck-based village. I can think of two somewhat positive strategies to use against the WWs, but the moment I explain them they will no longer be viable. Remember that! Some things are better kept to yourself. Don't tell us "watch for this-and-that WW behavior" because as soon as you say it you can no longer watch for it. Just execute whatever you think of, and cross your fingers and hope that a few other villagers are doing the same. Only talk strategy if it is a strategy that is not hurt when voiced.

5) And most importantly, I am not a Werewolf. You may put me down next to your own name on your proven innocent list.

Boromir88 · 11-12-2006, 11:39 PM

Quote:

5) And most importantly, I am not a Werewolf. You may put me down next to your own name on your proven innocent list~the phantom

That's good enough for me...

Known innocents:
The Phantom

Unknown:
Anguirel
Diamond18
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Estelyn Telcontar
Kath
littlemanpoet
Mithalwen
mormegil
Nogrod
Roa_Aoife
The Saucepan Man

That makes things a lot easer...I say we lynch Roa, I have an unfinished score to settle with her.

Anguirel · 11-13-2006, 01:38 AM

Very interesting. A selection of extremely loud villagers have been gathered, and are now being rapidly encouraged not to talk.

Well, I could shrug, say "suits me" and go back to my essay on Quixotism, Chivalry and Society, then return in the evening after a certain amount of wine and vote at random. It is tempting. I'm no one special. What difference can I make?

Bah humbug! phantom, I see one element of strategy that can helpfully be talked about.

The kills of the wolves, it seems to me, are rarely going to be unanimous, though a wolf in their right mind might well try their best to pick a target they thought their unknown partner was pursuing. This means there's going to be a frustrated wolf around a lot of the time. Will werewolfs try and put failed kills into action by day through persuasion?

And these rumours that we're being manipulated by some evil Daaaark Laaady. Pah. No ho paura. But it does take Mithalwen out of the running, surely...I don't see a blonde stooping to the employ of a brunette...

Then again...safe not to make assumptions...

Shall we try a day of blind lynch-mob behaviour and see what happens? Boro, I'm happy to lynch Roa if you like...

Remember everyone, we're the strongest village in history. We have no Seer, which gives the wolves, already diminished and confused, nothing to aim at! If you think about it, the cards are all on our side.

littlemanpoet · 11-13-2006, 04:59 AM

Just letting you all know I'm here.

For the lynching.

Feel free.

But you'd be wasting your vote.

Of course that means nothing to you that I say that.

Cry havoc ye gods of war and werewolf!

Avast.

Anguirel, I'll lynch you yet.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 11-13-2006, 05:14 AM

While thinking to myself "Nothing to post..." I thought I'd throw in this little thought.

It's tempting to accept that we can't really get anywhere without luck. Is this going to lead us into a situation whereby we will be in exactly the same predicament on Day Two as we are in on Day One? And thence to Day Three similarly?

The wolves are not on the same page, so until we catch one we are puzzling over a muddled script. When/If we do catch one, we might make clearer guesses.

**The Saucepan Man** · 11-13-2006, 06:18 AM

Did anyone think to enquire whether the Wolves are working as a team or as lone hunters?

I did. And my understanding is that they are working alone. Which means that they are in competition.

This, I think, is a very useful piece of information. I paused to consider before deciding whether to set out my thoughts on how this might affect the situation, as I don’t want to give the Wolves any guidance as to how to behave to avoid detection. On balance, however, since any Wolf worth his or her salt (and every potential Wolf here is worth his or her salt) will be able to work it out, I thought it would be more advantageous to do so than not to do so. So, my preliminary thoughts based on this information are as follows.

First, the Wolves will be looking to kill each other, as well as killing innocent villagers. Indeed, I would go so far as to suggest that a Wolf's prime target at the moment will be the other Wolf. There is little advantage to an individual Wolf in having another Wolf operating independently in the village, given that there will still only be one nightly kill. Some advantage perhaps in the cover that it offers, but that is little different from the cover offered by innocent villagers. Certainly, to my mind, the disadvantages, to a Wolf, of having another Wolf operating independently outweigh any advantage. While both Wolves survive, then one is at risk of being killed by the other at night (and therefore losing), as well as being lynched during the day, and neither can be sure that their chosen nightly kill will end up dead the next morning. That the Wolves are out for each other’s blood should work to the village’s advantage while they both survive.

Secondly, since a dead Wolf is a losing Wolf, the Wolves are going to be far more afraid of dying than when hunting as a pack (where they can still end up on the winning team even if they die).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ang

Remember everyone, we're the strongest village in history. We have no Seer, which gives the wolves, already diminished and confused, nothing to aim at! If you think about it, the cards are all on our side.

I rather agree with this. We have no Gifteds to worry about. Since it is more than likely that we will kill a few innocents along the way to victory, we should not worry about doing so. It’s not like we will be killing our Seer or anything. Innocents, therefore, should not be afraid to die while we still have a significant advantage in numbers.

Very little to go on so far, so I have no suspects and no presumed innocents. I am, however, wary of the suggestion that we should focus our attention on one villager (namely Roa) as, unless that suggestion is by some chance (ie blind luck) correct, we will be making it much easier for the Wolves to avoid death.

11-12-2006, 07:51 PM	#1
Feanor of the Peredhil La Belle Dame sans Merci Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: perpetual uncertainty Posts: 5,517	Day One has begun. Last edited by Feanor of the Peredhil; 11-12-2006 at 10:02 PM.

11-12-2006, 11:24 PM	#2
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	I have a few things to say. Most of them are obvious, but I'm a loudmouth and feel the need to fill up space. 1) The WWs don't know each other, therefore all votes are meaningless. Everyone will vote the way an innocent would vote, because the only thing anyone knows is who they are, and so everyone will try and preserve their own life. 2) Kills might be meaningful. 3) One of the WWs might kill his/her buddy. I'm thinking there might be a way to very slightly increase the chances of this happening, but the instant I say it the ploy won't work. Which leads me to my next point- 4) THINK before posting anything strategic!! We have very very very few chances to do something good strategically because Fea has done all she can to make it a pure luck-based village. I can think of two somewhat positive strategies to use against the WWs, but the moment I explain them they will no longer be viable. Remember that! Some things are better kept to yourself. Don't tell us "watch for this-and-that WW behavior" because as soon as you say it you can no longer watch for it. Just execute whatever you think of, and cross your fingers and hope that a few other villagers are doing the same. Only talk strategy if it is a strategy that is not hurt when voiced. 5) And most importantly, I am not a Werewolf. You may put me down next to your own name on your proven innocent list. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

11-13-2006, 01:38 AM	#4
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	Very interesting. A selection of extremely loud villagers have been gathered, and are now being rapidly encouraged not to talk. Well, I could shrug, say "suits me" and go back to my essay on Quixotism, Chivalry and Society, then return in the evening after a certain amount of wine and vote at random. It is tempting. I'm no one special. What difference can I make? Bah humbug! phantom, I see one element of strategy that can helpfully be talked about. The kills of the wolves, it seems to me, are rarely going to be unanimous, though a wolf in their right mind might well try their best to pick a target they thought their unknown partner was pursuing. This means there's going to be a frustrated wolf around a lot of the time. Will werewolfs try and put failed kills into action by day through persuasion? And these rumours that we're being manipulated by some evil Daaaark Laaady. Pah. No ho paura. But it does take Mithalwen out of the running, surely...I don't see a blonde stooping to the employ of a brunette... Then again...safe not to make assumptions... Shall we try a day of blind lynch-mob behaviour and see what happens? Boro, I'm happy to lynch Roa if you like... Remember everyone, we're the strongest village in history. We have no Seer, which gives the wolves, already diminished and confused, nothing to aim at! If you think about it, the cards are all on our side. __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso

11-13-2006, 05:14 AM	#6
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	While thinking to myself "Nothing to post..." I thought I'd throw in this little thought. It's tempting to accept that we can't really get anywhere without luck. Is this going to lead us into a situation whereby we will be in exactly the same predicament on Day Two as we are in on Day One? And thence to Day Three similarly? The wolves are not on the same page, so until we catch one we are puzzling over a muddled script. When/If we do catch one, we might make clearer guesses. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Switch to Linear Mode Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

11-13-2006, 04:59 AM	#5
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	Just letting you all know I'm here. For the lynching. Feel free. But you'd be wasting your vote. Of course that means nothing to you that I say that. Cry havoc ye gods of war and werewolf! Avast. Anguirel, I'll lynch you yet.