Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Roa_Aoife · 11-14-2006, 09:21 PM

Diamond Analysis

Her first couple posts are little more than first day banter, which is perfectly acceptable (especially since almost all of the villagers did the same thing.) What first irked me was her invocation of Diamond's Rule, and the defense she offered for herself, long before anyone had seriously suggested her as a vote candidate. I think I'm the least experienced player here, but a quick defense is usually a sign of a slip-up. She elaborated on this several times before anyone suspected her. I'm having a difficult time seeing this as something other than a wolf jumping the gun. She invokes it again over the "bandwagon" forming for her. In my mind, two votes does not a bandwagon make, especially since there were multiple others who had this same tally. Was she nervous? Or was she trying the old "it's way too obvious" trick?

I would say something about the dogged grudge match with Boromir, which grew exponentially as more and more people mentioned suspicions of him, and completely overran her previously mentioned grudge against Eomer, but it's almost forgivable considering the circumstances of the Day.

Roa_Aoife · 11-14-2006, 09:35 PM

Phantom Summary

Post 1- All votes are meaningless, kills may be meaningful, a werewolf, could kill another werewolf, strategy is limited, therefore keep strategy secret, he is not a werewolf

Post 2- Distrusts mod's honesty in coin flipping, disagrees with SPM's plan, "The only way I'd ever support your random lynch plan is if I was the favorite to be lynched." Thinks we should try to determine who Fea would pick to be a wolf

Post 3- think's Kath's grudge plan makes sense, banter with ang about grudges, can't think of any grudges that he bears

Post 4- Current lynch list: Ang, Diamond, Esty, morm

Post 5- Says he would have made Esty a WW if he were mod

Post 6- Response to Boromir about Esty, response to Ang about thoughts on Fea picking everything, says Fea could lie to us if she wanted to, says that he as a werewolf would be too obvious and predictable

Post 7- says he never committed to killing Esty today, banter about pointy teeth, banter about Diamond's Rule, thoughts on Nogrod's case against SPM, says he could spin him either way, and so will leave it be for now, banter about being an unknown wolf or indestructible, doesn't think Fea would be a third werewolf, isn't surprised at Ang's vote

Post 8- thinks that all strategy and analysis have been removed from the game, feels no pressure to win, thinks that all winning would prove was that the other side had bad luck, says he wouldn't want to be a wolf in this village

Post 9- Doesn't think Boromir is a wolf, doesn't think ruling out so many people to begin with is bad, since he wants to start somewhere, says he can't be a Fenris Wolf because he is not a wolf, and if he ever is a wolf in a future game, he won't be suspected

Post 10- Remarks on the randomness of Bb's post

Post 11- Says the randomness was probably the point

Post 12- listing of all the times he has bested Ang, new lynch list: Diamond, Morm, Nogrod, says Fea would likely break Diamond's Rule

Post 13- more grudge banter with Ang

Post 14- Doesn't know If Bb could be a werewolf, says it's possible, points out that no conditions for ending the game have been posted, says BB couldn't be one of the two werewolves inside the village

Post 15- says we can vote to lynch Fea or Bb, but doesn't recommend it

Post 16- Says he hasn't spent that much time defending himself or stating his innocence, (only 3 of 16 posts), lists them, asks people to use real reasons to lynch him, not made up ones, thinks it's unlikely that he would be picked, says everyone's logical analysis is useless, thinks SPM's reasoning is sub-par

Post 17- Thinks SPM should have realized by now that he is innocent

Post 18- says he'll be back before the deadline

Post 19- Is still confused by SPM's reasoning for his lynching, says he isn't afraid of lynching at all, directs SPM to review his first post

Post 20- Votes Diamond

Roa_Aoife · 11-14-2006, 09:38 PM

Phantom Analysis

First and foremost, his pessimism and statements about analysis being useless irk me (as all such statements usually do.) This however comes from a player who claims to rely almost wholly on analysis. He seems to think that because we can't really use a vote record, and kills are very limited in usefulness, that we have nothing to go on. This just isn't true. I think phantom is too intelligent to just throw in the towel like that, so it leads me to think that this is meant to discourage the village from strategizing or analyzing anything at all. It's a theme he plays upon multiple times, starting in his first post, where he discourages the discussion of all strategy, and continues on through his implication that Fea really controls everything, and so everything we do is useless.

Of course, after all that talk about analysis being impossible, he demands that SPM give good reasons for voting for him, dismissing all previously given reasons off hand as ridiculous. And one of those "poor" reasons given was pretty close to the one reason he gave for his suspicions- that is, Fea's likely choice. He never really gave a reason for having anyone on his lynch list, except once to mention that Fea would be the one to break Diamond's Rule.

In short, he doesn't care whether or not he is lynched, doesn't think he is useful to the village, and doesn't really feel any drive to do much other than entertain, and gives little to no reason for who he suspects, yet demands better reasons for lynching him. Lynch him.

Roa_Aoife · 11-14-2006, 10:08 PM

Morm Summary

Post 1- Points out problem with SPM's plan, sarcastic response to phantom's declaration of innocence

Post 2- Thinks Fea is too smart to make Esty a wolf, thinks phantom is a reasonable choice for Fea, says tp will be his likely vote

Post 3- general complaint about the chaos of the game mostly relating to Bb's sudden appearance

Post 4- Response to Nogrod's opinion on SPM, doesn't think we can use such information to incriminate SPM, suggests lynching Fea

Post 5- question about time limit

Post 6- Votes Boromir based on gut feeling

Post 7- Says he won't be back (how ironic)

Analysis
This has all the markings of a safety kill. Morm didn't really suspect anyone, said little in the way of defending anyone, and his vote was for the already dead and now known innocent Boromir. The only connections to be drawn are his statement that phantom was a likely choice for Fea, his disagreement with Nogrod about SPM, and his disagreement with Ang and TP about Esty, all of with are things that others had done as well.

That's all for now. I'll be back a few hours before deadline, hopefully with more analysis.

11-14-2006, 09:21 PM	#1
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Diamond Analysis Her first couple posts are little more than first day banter, which is perfectly acceptable (especially since almost all of the villagers did the same thing.) What first irked me was her invocation of Diamond's Rule, and the defense she offered for herself, long before anyone had seriously suggested her as a vote candidate. I think I'm the least experienced player here, but a quick defense is usually a sign of a slip-up. She elaborated on this several times before anyone suspected her. I'm having a difficult time seeing this as something other than a wolf jumping the gun. She invokes it again over the "bandwagon" forming for her. In my mind, two votes does not a bandwagon make, especially since there were multiple others who had this same tally. Was she nervous? Or was she trying the old "it's way too obvious" trick? I would say something about the dogged grudge match with Boromir, which grew exponentially as more and more people mentioned suspicions of him, and completely overran her previously mentioned grudge against Eomer, but it's almost forgivable considering the circumstances of the Day. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

11-14-2006, 09:35 PM	#2
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Phantom Summary Post 1- All votes are meaningless, kills may be meaningful, a werewolf, could kill another werewolf, strategy is limited, therefore keep strategy secret, he is not a werewolf Post 2- Distrusts mod's honesty in coin flipping, disagrees with SPM's plan, "The only way I'd ever support your random lynch plan is if I was the favorite to be lynched." Thinks we should try to determine who Fea would pick to be a wolf Post 3- think's Kath's grudge plan makes sense, banter with ang about grudges, can't think of any grudges that he bears Post 4- Current lynch list: Ang, Diamond, Esty, morm Post 5- Says he would have made Esty a WW if he were mod Post 6- Response to Boromir about Esty, response to Ang about thoughts on Fea picking everything, says Fea could lie to us if she wanted to, says that he as a werewolf would be too obvious and predictable Post 7- says he never committed to killing Esty today, banter about pointy teeth, banter about Diamond's Rule, thoughts on Nogrod's case against SPM, says he could spin him either way, and so will leave it be for now, banter about being an unknown wolf or indestructible, doesn't think Fea would be a third werewolf, isn't surprised at Ang's vote Post 8- thinks that all strategy and analysis have been removed from the game, feels no pressure to win, thinks that all winning would prove was that the other side had bad luck, says he wouldn't want to be a wolf in this village Post 9- Doesn't think Boromir is a wolf, doesn't think ruling out so many people to begin with is bad, since he wants to start somewhere, says he can't be a Fenris Wolf because he is not a wolf, and if he ever is a wolf in a future game, he won't be suspected Post 10- Remarks on the randomness of Bb's post Post 11- Says the randomness was probably the point Post 12- listing of all the times he has bested Ang, new lynch list: Diamond, Morm, Nogrod, says Fea would likely break Diamond's Rule Post 13- more grudge banter with Ang Post 14- Doesn't know If Bb could be a werewolf, says it's possible, points out that no conditions for ending the game have been posted, says BB couldn't be one of the two werewolves inside the village Post 15- says we can vote to lynch Fea or Bb, but doesn't recommend it Post 16- Says he hasn't spent that much time defending himself or stating his innocence, (only 3 of 16 posts), lists them, asks people to use real reasons to lynch him, not made up ones, thinks it's unlikely that he would be picked, says everyone's logical analysis is useless, thinks SPM's reasoning is sub-par Post 17- Thinks SPM should have realized by now that he is innocent Post 18- says he'll be back before the deadline Post 19- Is still confused by SPM's reasoning for his lynching, says he isn't afraid of lynching at all, directs SPM to review his first post Post 20- Votes Diamond __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

11-14-2006, 09:38 PM	#3
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Phantom Analysis First and foremost, his pessimism and statements about analysis being useless irk me (as all such statements usually do.) This however comes from a player who claims to rely almost wholly on analysis. He seems to think that because we can't really use a vote record, and kills are very limited in usefulness, that we have nothing to go on. This just isn't true. I think phantom is too intelligent to just throw in the towel like that, so it leads me to think that this is meant to discourage the village from strategizing or analyzing anything at all. It's a theme he plays upon multiple times, starting in his first post, where he discourages the discussion of all strategy, and continues on through his implication that Fea really controls everything, and so everything we do is useless. Of course, after all that talk about analysis being impossible, he demands that SPM give good reasons for voting for him, dismissing all previously given reasons off hand as ridiculous. And one of those "poor" reasons given was pretty close to the one reason he gave for his suspicions- that is, Fea's likely choice. He never really gave a reason for having anyone on his lynch list, except once to mention that Fea would be the one to break Diamond's Rule. In short, he doesn't care whether or not he is lynched, doesn't think he is useful to the village, and doesn't really feel any drive to do much other than entertain, and gives little to no reason for who he suspects, yet demands better reasons for lynching him. Lynch him. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

11-14-2006, 10:08 PM	#4
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Morm Summary Post 1- Points out problem with SPM's plan, sarcastic response to phantom's declaration of innocence Post 2- Thinks Fea is too smart to make Esty a wolf, thinks phantom is a reasonable choice for Fea, says tp will be his likely vote Post 3- general complaint about the chaos of the game mostly relating to Bb's sudden appearance Post 4- Response to Nogrod's opinion on SPM, doesn't think we can use such information to incriminate SPM, suggests lynching Fea Post 5- question about time limit Post 6- Votes Boromir based on gut feeling Post 7- Says he won't be back (how ironic) Analysis This has all the markings of a safety kill. Morm didn't really suspect anyone, said little in the way of defending anyone, and his vote was for the already dead and now known innocent Boromir. The only connections to be drawn are his statement that phantom was a likely choice for Fea, his disagreement with Nogrod about SPM, and his disagreement with Ang and TP about Esty, all of with are things that others had done as well. That's all for now. I'll be back a few hours before deadline, hopefully with more analysis. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

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