Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the phantom · 11-16-2006, 09:16 PM

Oh, and in case anyone asks why I voted for Eomer so suddenly and without explanation, here's what I have to say to that.

First, keep in mind that Eomer was not on my innocent list. He was listed as "Maybe WWs, but I am starting to form opinions on them and will make up my mind eventually". So definitely don't say that he wasn't one of my suspects to begin with.

And then Eomer made post #211. In my mind, this was the post that made me willing to vote for him. Eomer's over-willingness to assume the reason for the kill was the "wolf-guns-for-wolf" idea set off alarms for me. He was hopping onto the train started by SPM and I and was running with it a bit too far, trying to lead us astray. And the fact that he caused the theory to implicate himself further incriminated him in my mind. In seemed like a WWish thing to do.

After reading that particular post, if you remember, I said this-

Quote:

Note: I think it may prove to be telling one way or the other that Eomer has been all day today more than willing to assume that morm was killed because a WW thought that he was the other WW. Take from that what you will.

As you can see, Eomer had my attention at that point. My eye was on him.

After that, I took some time to explain my ploys/traps, and then it was time for me to rush off to work, so I quickly cast my vote for Eomer.

I certainly won't claim to have been sure of Eomer's guilt by any means, but I will say that I couldn't really think of anyone that I had particularly stronger suspicions of. He made me very uneasy. In addition, I trusted that Ang was (and is) an innocent and was willing to hop on board Ang's cause.

So there you go. That's why I voted for the evil Werewolf yesterday.

Also, if you want to take a look back at a couple of yesterday's posts, here are some places you may want to start-

SPM's post #180
lmp's list #208
Esty's list #201
Ang's list #207

Roa_Aoife · 11-16-2006, 09:25 PM

Estelyn Summary

Day 1
Post 1- Wonders if her vote will count if there aren't any bandwagons, doesn't know how to reach consensus, points out that SPM's plan means that Fea could play by herself

Post 2- Remark that we shouldn't trust phantom just because he says so, in character nonsense

Post 3- Reminds everyone of her 100% innocent record

Post 4- Also 100% winning streak

Post 5- "Moi?! On your lynch list? How did that happen?"

Post 6- Appreciation to Diamond, banter about being an attractive WW candidate

Post 7- "If it wouldn't give the wolves an advantage, lynching Bb would be a great idea!"

Post 8- Suggests lynching Boromir, Di, and Nogrod to solve their time conflict

Post 9- "Now there's a fun idea - lynch the mod the very first day!! That's the one way to ensure she won't be the one winning at the end!"

Post 10- Vote count, says she would vote for someone who already has a vote to make voting effective, voting Bb makes no sense, still trusts phantom, has no reason to mistrust LMP or Ang, worried about Boromir because "he's an experienced player with quite a few games under his belt."

Post 11- in character

Post 12- clarification on previous typo, votes Boromir "based on several next-to-nothings"

Day 2
Post 1- can't understand Fea's narration, but assumes it's there for a purpose, wonders if we will not know the role of the deceased, thinks we don't have a chance for logic in this game, thinks Fea was displeased with one of the wolves, says her vote for Boromir was statistically inevitable, doesn't think our accuracy will be any greater

Post 2- Says phantom's conclusion (post #164) makes her think of Diamond, doesn't believe in Diamond's rule

Post 3- Points to newbieness as reason for being quiet, is suspicious of Di, still trusts phantom

Post 4- thinks she was chosen due to the rarity of her presence, thinks she will be less calculable for the experts

Post 5- says next few posts will be for amusement

Post 6- WW, Books forum-style

Post 7- TiG Palantir of Fortune

Post 8- New Werewolves - Introduce Yourself Here

Post 9- Says she really can't think of anything constructive, posts her gutfeelings, trusts phantom, distrusts Di, uncertain about everyone else

Post 10- Votes Diamond

Post 11- corrects vote

Roa_Aoife · 11-16-2006, 09:26 PM

Analysis

Day 1 saw a whole lot of nothing from Estelyn. Her pessimism about our situation is similar to phantom's "pessimism," only hers is far more subtle and less attention getting. She also makes a point of stating multiple times that she trusts phantom, which I personally find odd. Rule No 1 of any WW game involving phantom is "Don't trust phantom, at least not until Day 2." Did she really trust the Ploy Master, or was she buddying up in attempt to appeal to his oh so large ego after he began noticing her lupine appeal?

She posted more than some others on day one, yet said the least out of everyone. I believe the term for this is frothiness, and frothiness is always worrying. It's a rather convenient place to hide, and she's managed to slip below the radar again. Nogrod said that one liners wouldn't be problem in this group, but Esty has a number of them. She also uses the old "Newbie Defense" saying that it's her inexperience in the game that causes both the quiet and the froth. She appeals to all our egos by saying that she's learning from us.

On Day 2, she continues with her pessimism about logic in this game. She also picks up on Di, and sticks with it through out the day, which is consistent, but makes me wonder if it's not a wolf picking up new prey. She conveniently and continuously points to the logic of others to make her case, posting nothing of her own reasoning.

What has me the most worried is her 10 post of the game, #105, where she briefly but systematically eliminates her choices for a vote. What bothers me is her reasoning. She actually wants to bandwagon on the leaders, thus continuing her lack of need for an actual case. She eliminates the main leader, phantom, with her statement of trust, then cuts out the other likely candidates, LMP and Ang, because she "has no reason to mistrust them." Boromir, on the other hand, has lots of experience and so is more dangerous. Her bizarre (to me, anyways) trust in phantom aside, the reasoning she uses to vote for Boromir is equally applicable to LMP and Ang, if not more so.

At this point in time, few people (namely Diamond) had any sort of case against Boromir, and it was mostly facetiousness. A safer vote could never be thrown.

the phantom · 11-16-2006, 09:27 PM

I haven't done exaustive Roa-style research on yesterday's quotes 'n votes, so this list here I'm giving is likely to change a bit later today after reading all of the information that the rest of you will no doubt bring up about what went on yesterday.

But for right now, my list...

COMPLETE ANGELS
Ang
Mith
Nogrod
the phantom
SPM

THE BETWEENERS
Kath
Roa

NEEDS TO BE EXAMINED CLOSELY
Esty
Di

(heh heh- I just noticed... this list is biased- all the guys are "angels"

)

Roa_Aoife · 11-16-2006, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phantom

(heh heh- I just noticed... this list is biased- all the guys are "angels" )

Sexist.

Roa_Aoife · 11-16-2006, 09:41 PM

Oh, and the ever so popular list of opinions, because noone cares right now, but everyone will care when I'm dead:

(And I discount my self from the list because you should all know where I stand on that.)

Definitely innocent:
No one

Probably innocent:
Nogrod
Diamond
(Try not to have a heart attack, you two.)

Possibly wolves:
Everyone

Probably Wolves:
Estelyn
SPM

Diamond18 · 11-16-2006, 09:43 PM

Quote:

NEEDS TO BE EXAMINED CLOSELY
Esty
Di

Getting a bit forward, are we now?

Diamond18 · 11-16-2006, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Probably innocent:
Nogrod
Diamond
(Try not to have a heart attack, you two.)

I'll try, but....

Eeeeeeek!

Anyway, I'm working on my "Who Killed Limpy?" um, thingie, at the moment. He just seems like a rather odd choice for a kill, and so there has to be something there. But you know, I must get psyched up about this endeavor because it involves the reading of SpM posts. *faints*

the phantom · 11-16-2006, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa

Sexist.

So it would seem.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa

Probably Wolves:
Estelyn
SPM

SPM, eh? Does that mean you'll be doing one of your Roa-style examinations on him? I'd be interested in seeing one.

Roa_Aoife · 11-16-2006, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phantom

one of your Roa-style examinations on him

You know, I learned that style from Ang of all people in my first game, WWJIII. He was a werewolf, in the end, but the tool still proved useful. (Helped me catch Valier.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Di

But you know, I must get psyched up about this endeavor because it involves the reading of SpM posts.

If you're going to do a "me-style" analysis on SPM, then I'll take this opportunity to hit the sack. (I was trying to psych myself up as well- my goodness, that's a lot of work.) If not, then I'll be happy to stay up and actually work on it. Or you take Day 1 and I'll take Day 2, or something of that sort.

the phantom · 11-16-2006, 10:03 PM

I'll take SPM's day 3 posts.

the phantom · 11-16-2006, 09:59 PM

Reasons for a WW kill-
1) To get someone who is suspicious of you out of the way.
2) To cast suspicion on those suspected by the victim.
3) To cause those who were not suspected by the victim to look innocent.
4) In order to leave no clear path to the WW. (the WW would be listed neither as suspicious or innocent with the victim)

If the WW killed based on #1 it implicates- Roa and Di

If the WW killed based on #2 it clears- Roa and Di

If the WW killed based on #3 it implicates- the phantom, SPM, and Mith

If the WW killed based on #4 it implicates- Nogrod, Kath, Ang, and Estelyn

And then past these more basic conclusions is a layer of bluffing which would make the opposite true in each case.

11-16-2006, 09:41 PM	#6
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Oh, and the ever so popular list of opinions, because noone cares right now, but everyone will care when I'm dead: (And I discount my self from the list because you should all know where I stand on that.) Definitely innocent: No one Probably innocent: Nogrod Diamond (Try not to have a heart attack, you two.) Possibly wolves: Everyone Probably Wolves: Estelyn SPM __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

11-16-2006, 10:03 PM	#11
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	I'll take SPM's day 3 posts. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

11-16-2006, 09:59 PM	#12
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Reasons for a WW kill- 1) To get someone who is suspicious of you out of the way. 2) To cast suspicion on those suspected by the victim. 3) To cause those who were not suspected by the victim to look innocent. 4) In order to leave no clear path to the WW. (the WW would be listed neither as suspicious or innocent with the victim) If the WW killed based on #1 it implicates- Roa and Di If the WW killed based on #2 it clears- Roa and Di If the WW killed based on #3 it implicates- the phantom, SPM, and Mith If the WW killed based on #4 it implicates- Nogrod, Kath, Ang, and Estelyn And then past these more basic conclusions is a layer of bluffing which would make the opposite true in each case. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Switch to Linear Mode Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

11-16-2006, 09:25 PM	#2
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Estelyn Summary Day 1 Post 1- Wonders if her vote will count if there aren't any bandwagons, doesn't know how to reach consensus, points out that SPM's plan means that Fea could play by herself Post 2- Remark that we shouldn't trust phantom just because he says so, in character nonsense Post 3- Reminds everyone of her 100% innocent record Post 4- Also 100% winning streak Post 5- "Moi?! On your lynch list? How did that happen?" Post 6- Appreciation to Diamond, banter about being an attractive WW candidate Post 7- "If it wouldn't give the wolves an advantage, lynching Bb would be a great idea!" Post 8- Suggests lynching Boromir, Di, and Nogrod to solve their time conflict Post 9- "Now there's a fun idea - lynch the mod the very first day!! That's the one way to ensure she won't be the one winning at the end!" Post 10- Vote count, says she would vote for someone who already has a vote to make voting effective, voting Bb makes no sense, still trusts phantom, has no reason to mistrust LMP or Ang, worried about Boromir because "he's an experienced player with quite a few games under his belt." Post 11- in character Post 12- clarification on previous typo, votes Boromir "based on several next-to-nothings" Day 2 Post 1- can't understand Fea's narration, but assumes it's there for a purpose, wonders if we will not know the role of the deceased, thinks we don't have a chance for logic in this game, thinks Fea was displeased with one of the wolves, says her vote for Boromir was statistically inevitable, doesn't think our accuracy will be any greater Post 2- Says phantom's conclusion (post #164) makes her think of Diamond, doesn't believe in Diamond's rule Post 3- Points to newbieness as reason for being quiet, is suspicious of Di, still trusts phantom Post 4- thinks she was chosen due to the rarity of her presence, thinks she will be less calculable for the experts Post 5- says next few posts will be for amusement Post 6- WW, Books forum-style Post 7- TiG Palantir of Fortune Post 8- New Werewolves - Introduce Yourself Here Post 9- Says she really can't think of anything constructive, posts her gutfeelings, trusts phantom, distrusts Di, uncertain about everyone else Post 10- Votes Diamond Post 11- corrects vote __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

11-16-2006, 09:26 PM	#3
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Analysis Day 1 saw a whole lot of nothing from Estelyn. Her pessimism about our situation is similar to phantom's "pessimism," only hers is far more subtle and less attention getting. She also makes a point of stating multiple times that she trusts phantom, which I personally find odd. Rule No 1 of any WW game involving phantom is "Don't trust phantom, at least not until Day 2." Did she really trust the Ploy Master, or was she buddying up in attempt to appeal to his oh so large ego after he began noticing her lupine appeal? She posted more than some others on day one, yet said the least out of everyone. I believe the term for this is frothiness, and frothiness is always worrying. It's a rather convenient place to hide, and she's managed to slip below the radar again. Nogrod said that one liners wouldn't be problem in this group, but Esty has a number of them. She also uses the old "Newbie Defense" saying that it's her inexperience in the game that causes both the quiet and the froth. She appeals to all our egos by saying that she's learning from us. On Day 2, she continues with her pessimism about logic in this game. She also picks up on Di, and sticks with it through out the day, which is consistent, but makes me wonder if it's not a wolf picking up new prey. She conveniently and continuously points to the logic of others to make her case, posting nothing of her own reasoning. What has me the most worried is her 10 post of the game, #105, where she briefly but systematically eliminates her choices for a vote. What bothers me is her reasoning. She actually wants to bandwagon on the leaders, thus continuing her lack of need for an actual case. She eliminates the main leader, phantom, with her statement of trust, then cuts out the other likely candidates, LMP and Ang, because she "has no reason to mistrust them." Boromir, on the other hand, has lots of experience and so is more dangerous. Her bizarre (to me, anyways) trust in phantom aside, the reasoning she uses to vote for Boromir is equally applicable to LMP and Ang, if not more so. At this point in time, few people (namely Diamond) had any sort of case against Boromir, and it was mostly facetiousness. A safer vote could never be thrown. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

11-16-2006, 09:27 PM	#4
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	I haven't done exaustive Roa-style research on yesterday's quotes 'n votes, so this list here I'm giving is likely to change a bit later today after reading all of the information that the rest of you will no doubt bring up about what went on yesterday. But for right now, my list... COMPLETE ANGELS Ang Mith Nogrod the phantom SPM THE BETWEENERS Kath Roa NEEDS TO BE EXAMINED CLOSELY Esty Di (heh heh- I just noticed... this list is biased- all the guys are "angels" ) __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.