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Old 11-17-2006, 11:53 AM   #1
Volo
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Valier

Day1

#21 (I like your profession, not that I’d want to meet a person like that), Anyway: Valier’s first post with in character stuff and telling that she’ll have little time that day. (The word ”Valier” wasn’t mentioned a single time on that page after that one post)

#64 Ok, in the end of page two she is there to say that she is there…

#72 Votes late for Diamond, because of her strange vote (which wasn’t actually that strange) and because Valier can’t deside whom to vote from CoD and Anguirel. A rather wolfish move.

#74 ”It would not be fair for me to vote to kill one of the two when I haven't been around all day. i don't want to be the one looked at tomorrow because I got someone killed and they may have been inoccent.” And so she wasted a vote, or not really, others can still change their votes…

Day2 (page3)

#96 Tells that her vote was mostly random. Mostly suspects CoD, Gurthang, Volo and Nogrod (of whom two are known innocents and two unknown innocents), also suspects Farael, Naria and Rune (a unknown, a wolf and a cobbler, but she doesn’t make reasons with those). Doesn’t suspect too much: Lommy, Boro and Diamond. Doesn’t know about Durelin. So she divided her fellow wolves into the differen categories (not making reasons about Naria whom she ”suspected”.


more later... I'm off to watch Monty Python and talk with a friend I haven't seen for long. I'll be back.
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Old 11-17-2006, 11:57 AM   #2
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I do find it odd that Volo said he had to go but then after I posted my post he suddenly has time to do analysis, but oh wait, he has to go and watch a movie....*sigh* His behavior is getting more and more odd as the day goes by.
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:16 PM   #3
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After reading Noggie's analysis I begin to see where he is coming from. Your post makes sense to me today in all this confusion. I still find it hard to catch a wolf by looking at who past wolves interacted with or didn't. Wolves will attack anyone if it serves their plans, so I think there is a good chance that a wolf would defend or openly attack a fellow wolf. Nothing to me seems too bold for a wolf to do.

I see how my inactivity with Boro could be considered fishy, but I have had little interaction with quite a few people this game, thats how it sometimes is in a big game in the beginning. I tend to concentrated on a group of people at one time(I know my bad) getting a grasp on a large group at once is too hard, I take them as they come into my attention, or lack there of. I tend to be a person who goes with feelings, so me not interacting with a wolf, is not really that far out. I really thought that Naria was an Ordo, just sick...boy was I wrong! I had a bit of interaction with her, so I don't see how looking at who the wolves talked to or didn't proves guilty. I think words and reactions are the most telling if interpreted correct.
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:28 PM   #4
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I've looked through Valier's posting and even if there are things in there that would lead one to suspect her, there seems to be more of those that point towards her innocence.

Valier's point about not interacting with everyone or mentioning all others makes sense too. And as I said, the fact that Boro said almost nothing about Valier is no evidence on her guilt.

I'll come up with a few points and a wild new idea in a moment. (This in just if someone is to vote very soon as I wouldn't like to see Valier get votes just because I've said that looking at Boro's posting there's an air of suspicion around her.)
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Old 11-17-2006, 01:14 PM   #5
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Okay. I'm only an innocent, not one who knows things... as you know. So if there is to be a toMorrow (hopefully not!), remember I may be wrong here. I have been very wrong many times in this game.

But as it looks to me now.

Farael is probably innocent. His rant with Boro is very hard to interpret as a wolf-on-wolf one. Too dangerous, too noisy. I mean, someone could have taken a point or two from their arguments and start a wagon to lynch him.

-----
CoD has also an unwolvish air about him just because he plays in the style he plays and gets almost everyone annoyed by it. A wolf would have to be really a daring one to risk that kind of play, standing up over all the village. Jsut look at the amount of suspicion he has gathered around him.

-----
Valier does pose a problem to me.

First of all I must agree with Durelin here. When Valier refused to break the tie between CoD and Ang (effectually on that point letting CoD die) I thought it very suspicious washing-hands, but with reread she seems innocent enough.

In #96 she suspects most of us with points (and softenings with many) but not Boro. Then she says there is a no clue -group consisting of Farael, Rune and Naria... I don't know what to make of it.

After Naria informed us that she was sick she came to talk on her behalf in #112.
Quote:
(OOC I know Naria in RL and she is really truly vomity flu sick, so please donot hold that against her or vote for her just for this reason.)
and later in #177
Quote:
I don't want to just Naria slide, but I hate to vote for someone who hasn't been around to defend themselves. That's not saying that she isn't a wolf, just that I think the possibility of CoD being a wolf is higher at the moment.
A good friend might stand up like this but a sneaky wolf might go this way too (there could be defences if she was later accused of this).

Unlike Durelin, I find Valier's speculation about Rune's death quite reasonable. Just lately she has also sounded good. But surely the last remaining wolf would like to do that?

I'm somewhat unsure about her. I feel her innocent but am afraid she's the last one.

-----
Lommy I think to be most probably innocent, but then again, there is a fantastic plot that could be under everything here.

After Naria informed us that she was sick there came the Night. Now if she told the other wolves that she can't participate, so why not to use that to their advantage? So Boro and Lommy came up with this idea: Lommy makes a theory pointing at Naria and Boro is against it. That way they could distance themselves from each other nicely, adding some mild suspicion over each other to spice it a bit. Remember, they were sitting steady in the lead here and Boro was in the Fea-game too and was thence ready to take a risk of being the one of them who might be spotted. And with that trust our Lommywolf will sail through to win the game...

Nice conspiration-theory, but as Di said earlier, we tend to come up with more complex theories about wolves schemings as they actually go with. I'm not sure whether I (or anyone else) should give a second thought to that but I felt I had to say it.

Otherwise I see Lommy to have been both reasonable and helpful villager and I tend to believe her innocent. Were she the last wolf I must say it would almost be an honour to lose to her.

-----
Volo I just can't read even now... I think I never had the skills to it. My lorebooks just tell me that last time he was a wolf and in a tight spot he tended to avoid playing but was available immediately when suspicions started to form. I can see some similarities with the pattern here.


I'll be here before the end but have to take a break for a while (and check also what's going oin in Fea's game).
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Old 11-17-2006, 01:24 PM   #6
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Oh, true Nogrod, maybe I'm a wolf after all, didn't think like that earlier. But hey seriously, I have reasons why I was away all week and now am not, if you want I can tell them all and give contacts where you can check. Alibi I've got!
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Old 11-17-2006, 01:29 PM   #7
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Quote:
But hey seriously, I have reasons why I was away all week and now am not, if you want I can tell them all and give contacts where you can check. Alibi I've got!
Don't worry, I won't be calling them anyways. And truly what I said was:
Quote:
Volo I just can't read even now... I think I never had the skills to it.
But surely you also see that a wolf would like to be there if there is a chance he's being killed?

But as I said, I can't read you.

I have to think about this.

EDIT: X'd with Valier... That was it, then...

Double EDIT: No oit wasn't, I had wrong idea about the votes cast...
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Old 11-17-2006, 01:27 PM   #8
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Well I must go, I have some hair butchering to attend to(RL) I still think that CoD is really suspicious, but Volo warrents my vote today. His behavior does have an odd pattern as I have seen in the lorebooks, I agree with Farael's point today. Volo is the logical choice...May we kill us a Wolf and not have to go through this again tomorrow.

++Volo
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:46 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
His behavior is getting more and more odd as the day goes by.
Well what did I do now? I do have things that I prefer or have to prefer over WW... :/

But continuing now with hmm... Farael or Lommy if Nogrod is taking care of Valier. It is true that Boromir ignoring her, doesn't make Valier a wolf, but just trying to make some ideas.

And just to note, two votes on some player gives the wolf an opportunity to save himself/herself for now. Don't count on it though, it may well be that our wolf has already voted.
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:57 PM   #10
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Farael has just left Hobbiton.
Well, it is very likely I'll be back before the deadline, but it is not certain, so I shall cast my vote.

Of all the remaining unknowns, Volo seems to be the most logical choice. CoD is still suspicious in my eyes, but right now it is a bit too late to get rid of a villager just to clear the air. I see no case against Valier other than her little participation... but then, I haven't been able to post a lot either.

Thus I shall say

++Volo and may the Valar help us find that remaining wolf.
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Old 11-17-2006, 01:04 PM   #11
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Oh great , maybe you would at least put a reason with my name. Two innocents will die before next day starts if this continues...

Analyzing Lommy
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