Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Holby

one said aloud to be more heard
"Will the Fenris wolf step forward?"

That would be most convenient indeed!

And thanks Farael for pointing out this:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Guests, talk. Werewolves, shush.

This time I seem to have our host's backing to my "lynch the quiet" -campaign to be unleashed before the end of this Dance...

[Durelin]

. . .A spirit of the dead makes a rude noise before passing on her way to the Other Side. . . .

[Lalwendë]

But surely if we lynch those who keep quiet then the werewolves will only shout even more? Therefore shouldn't we lynch those who shout the mostest?

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

But surely if we lynch those who keep quiet then the werewolves will only shout even more? Therefore shouldn't we lynch those who shout the mostest?

Cross posted with you. See Lalwende the "problem" with your plan is that, as I mentioned perviously, loud people leave trails. Loud ordos eventually get under the werewolves skins and by the lynch patterns we can hope to figure out who the wolves are. Loud werewolves can be as loud as they wish, but they are playing with the knowledge of who is who, and furthermore they have to be careful with their interactions with the other wolf, so once we nail one wolf, if we force the couple to be loud, it is possible that we will find the second by analysing the first wolve's talk.

It is a lot of detective work, and eventually it comes down to a few good guesses.... but if we only leave the silent ones around, then it will ONLY be random guessing, all through the game.

So I say, lynch the silent ones and force the wolves on the spotlight, where any mistakes they make will be noticed.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by farael

So, we have werewolves here... howcome I'm suspected and not Eomer (let me spell it out for you here) the Prince of Wargs ?

I say warg=wolf, prince=special, special wolf= werewolf!!!!!

Weeellll, hoom. I promised myself I wouldn't say this, but you've given me an opening:
don't be hasty, little orc!

Nogrod, I don't think it's as bleak as all that. We needn't rely on luck alone. I have great faith in the close reading and careful consideration of each post, hoomraroom, and the plain hobbit sense that tells us who seems foul, though he may look fair, and vice versa. (note - the previous is not meant to indicate anyone in particular, it's merely a general statement).

Methinks that merely judging based on posting volume is too broad; a wolf can hide in any category. I suggest we look for inconsistancy and convoluted reasoning, as these are the mark of a liar.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Durelin

. . .A spirit of the dead makes a rude noise before passing on her way to the Other Side. . . .

Now spirit, shush!! We have a good tactic, if the wolves buy on it it might just work!!!

I actually agree with Nogrod (probably for the first time ). Too many games the ordos have been foiled by a silent wolf (or more than one) A talkative wolf is likely to slip, and a silent ordo does not contribute lots to the game. So, why not lynch the silent ones? We have virtually nothign to go-on today other than some hunches and perhaps a really untimely slip by a careless wolf... The odds of a hunch being right are about 1/7 while the odds of a wolf being careless this early on the game are... well, negligible.

So I say, now that we still have the numbers to risk perhaps a few bad lynchings... why not lynch the silent ones?

Furthermore, it has become a common trend among wolves to kill those that will leave no trail. Talkative ordos tend to put werewolves in tight spots while silent ones are easy kills. I say we kill the silent ones, until we have something better to go on.

[Folwren]

May I remind you gentlemen, before you lynch any of the more silent, that not everyone chatters about nothing? It would be wise to remember that not all who talk endlessly and try to make sense are as innocent and guiltless as they want to make out.

And, Lalwendë, you're assumption is not quite so monstrous as the men's, but even the idea of lynching the most talkative is erroneous. Many people will talk an endless and great amount on Day 1 merely to make conversation. Sometimes, they do so in order to spark conversation, which can be important. Others don't know how to behave at Dances and get nervous and talk too much.

No...I say, search for the people in the center, but do so without forgetting those on the two farthest side of the spectrum of talkative and silent.

-- Countess Folwren

P.S. Cross posted with Farael twice and Celuien once.

[Celuien]

Twirls a lasso and fires off a shot from a six-shooter

Low-down skulkin' varmints! Ain't got any sense of decency to go 'n maul their hosts. Out on the trail, we'd show those no-accounts what was comin' to 'em.

Now, I know that you wolves were told to hush up, but I say you should just fess up now. Ya can't hide forever, and the marshall will be comin' before long.

I'm not a-trustin' that Countess Folwren. Can't tell about those stoic mysterious types. And I'm agreein' with Farael 'bout that Warg-Prince Eomer bein' one to watch. He's done twisted my head around worse than a tornado more than once before.

[Celuien]

Crossed with a bunch of dancers.

About the silent ones...I'd agree that it hasn't been uncommon for wolves to use quiet folks to their advantage, so I would be inclined to choose from the quiet ones first...unless someone noisy catches my attention.

[Lalwendë]

Farael, being the naughty/nice Elf I know all too well how the naughty and the downright wicked can fly under the radar by doing their bad things in a sneaky fashion. They hope not to be noticed, but the eyes of the naughty/nice elf are always open and she is always alert. But some of them are wise to this so they bluster and shout in the vain hope of double bluffing and so still getting their undeserved gifts from dear old Father Christmas...

Now Folwren I agree often people bluster due to their nerves, but why are they nervous? Something to hide, eh?

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Now Folwren I agree often people bluster due to their nerves, but why are they nervous? Something to hide, eh?

The countess fixes her with a cold glance.

No. Not necessarily something to hide. Fear, maybe. There is a lot to fear when eternal death is threatened, would you not say?

[Folwren]

Cross posted with a few dancers.

There is hardly a pack of wolves to speak of, Rikae. There are two. And two Cobblers. Two cobblers who know who the wolves are. Torture is not need to kill the wolves, but perhaps it would be convenient* if we could find the cobblers.

I still do not think it is good to kill the silent ones. Be careful...if you must...consider how they usually are. Those with the habits of being silence and shy should not be killed for it.

-- Countess Folwren

*This is only for the game. A stoical woman would not be adverse to torturing someone if it meant getting needed information, but I am not personally for torture. (Nor am I really, trully, stoical.) - Foley

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Folwren

The countess fixes her with a cold glance.

No. Not necessarily something to hide. Fear, maybe. There is a lot to fear when eternal death is threatened, would you not say?

The little Elf winks and skips about as she says:

"But those who have been good have nothing to fear!"

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I suggest we look for inconsistancy and convoluted reasoning, as these are the mark of a liar.

Indeed, though it was once said that a truly clever wolf would tell the truth, just not truths that would lead to the true identity of the wolves. That's the scariest thought of all!

If someone is obviously misleading and inconsistent, it's a red flag, but I think I tend to find extreme caution more alarming. With only two wolves against 13 dancers, the wolves have more to lose, numerically speaking, if one is caught. And the wolves are also the ones with a secret, so they have to be careful...

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Folwren

I still do not think it is good to kill the silent ones. Be careful...if you must...consider how they usually are. Those with the habits of being silence and shy should not be killed for it.

True, but when usual quiet ones are afflicted with lupine tendencies then they are ready made to slip under the radar.
While I don't wish to see exclusive lynches of quiet ones, they are better to be dealt with sooner then later when, as others have stated, the end is near and barely a trail is there. Oh, gracious ladies and lords of the dance.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Indeed, though it was once said that a truly clever wolf would tell the truth, just not truths that would lead to the true identity of the wolves. That's the scariest thought of all!

Ah, but in this case, the avoidence of a topic or person will be the red flag.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Farael, being the naughty/nice Elf I know all too well how the naughty and the downright wicked can fly under the radar by doing their bad things in a sneaky fashion. They hope not to be noticed, but the eyes of the naughty/nice elf are always open and she is always alert. But some of them are wise to this so they bluster and shout in the vain hope of double bluffing and so still getting their undeserved gifts from dear old Father Christmas...

Now Folwren I agree often people bluster due to their nerves, but why are they nervous? Something to hide, eh?

Lalwende, you seem to be trying to direct our attention to those at the extremes; while Nogrod and Folwren advise us to direct our attention toward the moderates and Farael wants to lynch the quiet ones.

As for myself, as I've said, I'm inclined to think posting volume is flimsy evidence in general.

Lal is, as far as we know, new to the game; her argument would seem to be logical reasoning for a newbie, but it could also be an attempt to shelter a moderate wolf. As she is a newbie, I'm inclined to believe the former for now.
Nogrod and Folwren are experienced, and state the obvious as is generally done on a first day (or dance). Of course, as vocal players, they also argue for their own innocence.
Farael's frustration with being left with the random choice between quiet players I understand, but it will doubtless mean lynching several innocents with no evidence against them. Later in the game, there will be some evidence even concerning the quiet players; everyone has to post daily, and their connections to known wolves/innocents will provide some sort of trail.
Celuien and Kath offer some day one randomness, and Holbytlass some poetry; both are safe posts, but so are Nogrod and Folwren's.

Yet to post:
Morm
Kitana
Naria
Mac
Valier
Eomer
Cailyn

Edit: Cross posted with Lalwende, Celuien and Folwren

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by Celuien

I'm not a-trustin' that Countess Folwren. Can't tell about those stoic mysterious types.

The countess bows ever so slightly, and ever so elegantly. Beneath her mask, her thin eyebrow is raised in a high arch. Her pale lips form a straight thin line.

You can not tell, indeed. Not by my looks or words, perhaps. Maybe you will come to trust me, though. I know not. Nor do I care.

[Nogrod]

A familiar discussion at a Ball, I see...

Foley's middle-ground sounds reasonable and to a certain extent it is reasonable - at least as I can see it.

But.

There is a funny thing in the dynamics of these Balls where those people dancing with grand gestures and taking lots of room on the floor will be left without a seat in the end as they are in everyone's eyes all the time. They are the ones that are in people's minds as the Dance ceases.

So a witty WW would stand aside and sit easily for the most of the first Dance, or just make a few little sensible-looking squaredances to show they take part. Those I find the most frightening ones.

As Farael said, the ones who fill the floor with their presence will inevitably leave a trail that can be looked upon after a few Dances, but those careful enough not to arouse too much attention stay near the chairs and leave no trail of their choreography...

[Rikae]

Sensible advice, Noggy, or is it? I have never encountered a wolf pack that sticks entirely to the shadows, or to the spotlight. I suspect we are more likely to find a wolf in each group.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I have never encountered a wolf pack that sticks entirely to the shadows, or to the spotlight.

Ah, but in my (rather extensive at this point in time, although perhaps not as extensive as other's) experience in this kind of sticky situations, it is always the silent wolf that lasts until the end. The loud one often gets lynched early on, and then the silent one sneaks upon the shadows and coasts his cloak of silence to a grim victory.

In my experience, the only time this was not the case, as far as I remember, was with the acursed SPM... he was one crafty, loud wolf. But odds are in our favour, very few of us can claim to be as talented as him. So, I say, force the werewolves to play our game and not the other way around. Don't let them choose whether to hide in the shadows or in the spotlight, force them to be exposed and to take risks. That way, we have a better chance of finding them.

[Farael]

I'd like to bring up something that might be misnuderstood
I'm not saying "lynch the silent ones all through the game". I'm saying, today and any other day that we do not have good evidence to work on, let's lynch a silent one. Obviously, if we start to find a trend on the werewolve's killings, we should abandon this plan and follow that trend. But in Day 1 there is often nothing to go on... and more often than not, Day 2 gives us rather little information. Unless we have an unexpected breakthrough (and hey, i might happen) I propose we start by getting rid now of those who will confound our counsels later with their silence.

[Rikae]

Now, Farael, the dance has just begun. By tomorrow afternoon we may have something to go on, and I'd rather lynch a suspected wolf than somebody who happens to have few posts on day one.

Originally Posted by Farael

(and hey, i might happen)

Typo or Freudian slip? (j/k)

Edit: Cross posted with the last 3 posts.

[Cailín]

What a mess! Masked balls always did seem dodgy affairs to me.

It is comforting to know not much has changed. The silent versus loud debate is still standing strong, I see, and still unresolved. I see no real point to contribute: it is suspicious behaviour in general, careful wording and thought out messages that we need to detect, not the length and quantity of posting. I think Folwren the Stoic Countess has a strong case in post #17 that basically boils down to everyone is suspicious. Good point.

As to the identity of the wolves: I suspect the most beautiful masks may hide the darkest souls. I therefore think Kath and Valier should be closely observed at all times. Or it might possibly be the Christmas Elf, who would have a nice accomplish in the choirboy. Well, truthfully, I have not a clue, but I know the culprit can not possibly be the devastatingly handsome, noble Prince of Wargs, also known as Eomer of the Rohirrim.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I think Folwren the Stoic Countess has a strong case in post #17 that basically boils down to everyone is suspicious. Good point.

True enough, but it is our job to curb and limit those suspicions to a manageable size. We can't just lynch everyone, thus we must try to figure out who is innocent and who is furry.

I might go against my own plan, though, and vote for Folwren today. She has back-flipped already, saying that she's not "that much" against my plan anymore... coincidentally, as my plan gained some support from the most unexpected source (Holby).

P.S: Rikae very funny... don't make me comb over my posts three times just to make sure I don't leave any other typos behind.