Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Cailín]

Well, there is one obvious flaw in this plan. It makes things a lot easier for the two wolves, especially if they are notorious loudmouths themselves. They can just continue voting for the silent ones, if this becomes the generally accepted idea: silent ones who leave no trails at all once they are death and proven innocent because they voiced none of their opinions.

It is no good planning who to lynch or even what type of player to lynch. It will just make things easier for the evil creatures. Of course, there is about a 50/50 chance that there indeed is a wolf among the silent ones, but there might as well not be and then where will this plan lead us?

If there are absolutely no other options, only then it might be a good idea to lynch the ambiguous. But when I find wolvish behaviour in someone, that person will get my vote, regardless of quantity of posting.

It is nonetheless good to stimulate people to 'leave trails' as much as possible. It can be a lifesaver.

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Farael

Does Lawlende fool anyone with her "I'm a rookie werewolfer" claims? I believe she's smarter than what she lets on... much smarter.

Not that being smart means being a wolf, for all I know she might be a crafty ordo trying to avoid being killed during the breaks, but I'm just asking....

All I can say on that one is that I've got vibes this time around. Santa's little naughty/nice elf has her antenna tuned in right now...

[Macalaure]

I agree that Kitanna is most probably a safe kill.

Poor Kit. Lynched on the first day already again...
How very unfair!

I think I will have a look at the votes now, especially the throw-aways. Since there are multiple lynchings, it is probably in the interest of the wolves to spread the votes - even more than it is usually.

Here's the tally:

Morm --> Rikae, 1
Kitanna --> Morm (Rikae 1, Morm 1)
Farael --> Folwren (Rikae 1, Morm 1, Folwren 1)
Morm X Rikae --> Valier (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1)
Cailin --> Kath (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)
Celuien --> Morm (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)
Lal --> Kitanna (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1, Kitanna 1)
Folwren --> Farael (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1, Kitanna 1, Farael 1)
Mac --> Kath (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 1, Farael 1)
Valier --> Farael (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 1, Farael 2)
Rikae --> Kitanna (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Holby --> Morm (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Nogrod --> Kath (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 3, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Eomer --> Kath (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 4, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Naria --> Rikae (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 4, Kitanna 2, Farael 2, Rikae 1)

Kitanna and Kath are dead. Kath did not vote.
Most suspicious of these are to me:

Cailin - adds Kath as fourth name to the list. Her reasoning is well, but not too convincing.
Lalwende - adds fifth name. Not exactly a well-reasoned vote. This actually makes me feel confident about her. Wouldn't a new player, if a wolf, be more concerned about the appearance of the vote?
Folwren - the sixth name. Why does she not vote morm? You simply don't put a sixth name to the list if your other top suspect is already on the block. Very suspicious.
Valier - ties Farael with morm and Kath. A bit suspicious, but I will leave it there - today.
Rikae - votes for known innocent and ties Kitanna with three others. Suspicious.
Naria - throws vote away late. Voting morm would be too obvious if she is wolvish. Voting Kath would've destroyed the chance of a double lynching (if Kath would have appeared in the last moment). I hope we get her reasons for her vote today and I hope it will be more than "I was in a hurry and couldn't read up and figure out the situation"

According to this, Folwren is highly suspicious, Valier, Rikae and Naria somewhat, Cailín slightly.
I'm also getting strange vibes from two others, but I will wait what today will bring.


Something else:

Originally Posted by Farael

Yes, we were loud and noisy, and thus, likely to leave some sort of a trail.

Not necessarily. In fact, loud villagers who are off the trail, which most people are on Dance1, are a gift to the wolves.

[Naria]

Is Naria playing this game or am I confused with another one?

Umm, I know that Orc's are a little slow Farael or maybe you just missed the memo . At any rate I posted with what time was given to me during Dance1. Hope that makes your waters a little less murky

Mac, Yes I read through everything and yes I knew the situation. Simply put, I voted for her out of spite.

As of right now, I don't have any firm judgements. I am hoping that this will change as Dance2 tangos on.

[Naria]

*puts a rose between her teeth* Tango anyone?!

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Naria

*puts a rose between her teeth* Tango anyone?!

Of course, that is the dance of my land. No, not Mordor, I mean Argentina!

I cross-posted with you by the way...

[Naria]

Naria is silent because she's afraid of revealing something she should not if she talks more.

Ah, don't you worry about lil ol me. The only thing I'm afraid of revealing is my bloomers while I spin around the floor . It just takes me a little longer than some to get a 'feel' for people and there is usually something in someone's post that will pop out at me and so far there hasn't been anything. I will however, go back and re-read what has been said....maybe I've missed something.

Farael, I understand your plan and it could maybe? possibly? work. What I don't understand is why you are so pushy for it. Pretty much every post you've made is about this plan of yours. And then you go on to say that you are becoming suspicious of the people that disagree with it. Why so pushy? Why suspicious of the disagree'rs?

[Farael]

Why so pushy?

Simple, because I'm quite convinced that it's pure genious! As far as I known, the villagers (or dancers in this case) are always content on playing into the wolves' hand and let them call the shots, while the villagers wait for a lucky break from the Seer or the Ranger.

What I'm proposing is the exact opposite. Let's take things into our own hands, define the playing field and force them to adapt. That way we'll force them into revealing their hand and ultimately their identities.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Naria

And then you go on to say that you are becoming suspicious of the people that disagree with it. Why so pushy? Why suspicious of the disagree'rs?

Thinking about Farael's family tree, it seems to be a hereditary trait...

If anything, I think Kitanna's death puts Lal in the innocent category. If Lal's vote yesterday has any relationship to Kitanna's death, it's more likely an clumsy framing attempt than evidence against Lal.

Valier seems a little bit jumpy in response to being Morm's secondary suspect. That may bear watching.

I think it will take another review for me to come up with anything else...

[Rikae]

I wonder whether the killing of Kitanna might not be intended to direct suspicion towards Lal, Morm and/or me. I realise it isn't having that effect, but a wolf might have hoped it would; and furthermore, Morm and I both expressed suspicion toward Valier, whocomes along today claiming the first kill is usually "out of spite" (implying Morm) and saying she wants to hear more from Lal and myself today to find out what the wolves were up to. I also don't particularly like this whole proclaiming her own innocence business - but my instincts seem to be off today, so I may be completely off base here. Just a thought.
As for lynching the quiet ones, Farael, whom do you suggest? You mentioned Naria; is she the one you want lynched today? You push this idea so doggedly, you seem not to concern yourself with the conversation that actually is going on. It almost looks like a cobblerish plan, either to protect a vocal wolf or, by turning other players off the idea with your over-enthusiasm, protect a quiet wolf.

EDIT: Crossed with last four posts.

[Farael]

Wow, i come back here after a long absence and I find only two posts... I should consider it a blessing, since I don't have to do a lot of catch-up, but then I'm trying to put in place a plan that'll only work if we all talk plenty.

I still stand by my plan. What most of you don't seem to grasp is that we could have this plan in place, and yet not vote for one "silent" person. If we are lucky, everyone will talk enough so that we can get a feel for them, and thus we won't lynch anyone based on silence alone. Yet, unless any of you has a "feel" on day 2 for a specific person, I say, let's lynch the "unfeelables" (aka, those that we won't get a feel for as they won't talk) now that it's too soon to have a good feel for anyone anyway!!!

That's the merit of my plan... I don't want to sound as a doom's day theorist, but we'll all regret it by the end of this game, when we start wondering whether Naria is silent because she's afraid of revealing something she should not if she talks more.

And is a misguided Ordo worse than a silent one? If the wolves start killing those that are off the trail hoping to lead us away from their scent, that'll leave only the ordos that are on the trail. If the wolves start killing the ones that are on the trail, then we'll notice it and follow their lead to victory!

And since only two names out of fourteen (at this point in time) are "on the trail", we can (by the use of logic and deduction) figure out after a few days any patterns that might be emerging. There are twelve "off the trail" names and two "on the trail". Thus, by following my plan, we force the wolves to play our game and start eliminating people that will leave a trail, whether by following their accusations directly, or by opposition

By letting the silents leave, we allow the wolves to kill those that leave no trail.

I might be becoming over-protective of my idea, but the more I think of it, the more I start suspecting those of you that oppose it!