Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Naria]

Naria is silent because she's afraid of revealing something she should not if she talks more.

Ah, don't you worry about lil ol me. The only thing I'm afraid of revealing is my bloomers while I spin around the floor . It just takes me a little longer than some to get a 'feel' for people and there is usually something in someone's post that will pop out at me and so far there hasn't been anything. I will however, go back and re-read what has been said....maybe I've missed something.

Farael, I understand your plan and it could maybe? possibly? work. What I don't understand is why you are so pushy for it. Pretty much every post you've made is about this plan of yours. And then you go on to say that you are becoming suspicious of the people that disagree with it. Why so pushy? Why suspicious of the disagree'rs?

[Farael]

Why so pushy?

Simple, because I'm quite convinced that it's pure genious! As far as I known, the villagers (or dancers in this case) are always content on playing into the wolves' hand and let them call the shots, while the villagers wait for a lucky break from the Seer or the Ranger.

What I'm proposing is the exact opposite. Let's take things into our own hands, define the playing field and force them to adapt. That way we'll force them into revealing their hand and ultimately their identities.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Naria

And then you go on to say that you are becoming suspicious of the people that disagree with it. Why so pushy? Why suspicious of the disagree'rs?

Thinking about Farael's family tree, it seems to be a hereditary trait...

If anything, I think Kitanna's death puts Lal in the innocent category. If Lal's vote yesterday has any relationship to Kitanna's death, it's more likely an clumsy framing attempt than evidence against Lal.

Valier seems a little bit jumpy in response to being Morm's secondary suspect. That may bear watching.

I think it will take another review for me to come up with anything else...

[Rikae]

I wonder whether the killing of Kitanna might not be intended to direct suspicion towards Lal, Morm and/or me. I realise it isn't having that effect, but a wolf might have hoped it would; and furthermore, Morm and I both expressed suspicion toward Valier, whocomes along today claiming the first kill is usually "out of spite" (implying Morm) and saying she wants to hear more from Lal and myself today to find out what the wolves were up to. I also don't particularly like this whole proclaiming her own innocence business - but my instincts seem to be off today, so I may be completely off base here. Just a thought.
As for lynching the quiet ones, Farael, whom do you suggest? You mentioned Naria; is she the one you want lynched today? You push this idea so doggedly, you seem not to concern yourself with the conversation that actually is going on. It almost looks like a cobblerish plan, either to protect a vocal wolf or, by turning other players off the idea with your over-enthusiasm, protect a quiet wolf.

EDIT: Crossed with last four posts.

[Farael]

Well, Naria has spoken up a bit since, if she keeps this up she'll be safe from the "silent" category (but by no means necessarily innocent).

For now, Valier has posted little and said little in her few posts, so she'd be a ripe candidate for lynching. Furthermore, as some have brought up, she has acted somewhat suspiciously, so it might be a win-win situation.

If you want any other names, You'll have to wait until the end of the day, since for now a handful of us have spoken today.

And if you've read my arguments at all, you'd notice that what I want is a loud-speaking wolf... that's a blessing for us, since the more they talk, the more likely it is that we'll find something to pick up on and nail them. And how would I protect a quiet wolf, if I'm adamantly trying to lynch the quiet ones?

[Farael]

We're playing without editing, but I made a grammar error on my previous post.... where it says "For now a handful" It's supposed to be ONLY a handful.... I know, no big deal, but just in case you are finding it confusing to read.

[Folwren]

I do not have very long, and I am a woman of few words, but, with what little time I have, and with what few posts I scanned, this is all I have to say.

Farael, what plan do you still stand by? Lynching a quiet one? Why didn't you lynch a quiet one yesterday? Kath talked an average amount, didn't she? I talked more than the average player in this game and you voted for me. Why didn't you go after one of your quiet ones?

Mac, I didn't vote for Morm because at the moment, I was more suspicious of Farael and Farael still seems more dangerous to me. Do you mind? I am inclined to believe Morm is a cobbler rather than a wolf, if he is anything, and I am also inclined to believe that Farael is a wolf rather than a cobbler, if he is anything.

As of now, I have no comments to make on Kitanna's death. I am sorry for it, of course, but it is a safe kill for the wolves and I think there is little else to be said for it.

I have not read today's posts carefully enough to comment more. Expect me to come back in roughly 12 hours to begin reading carefully and excpet an actual post from me in about 13 hours. This evening, for the next hour, I will be flitting in and out of the room, reading if anyone posts, but probably not commenting.

-- Countess Folwren

[Celuien]

And how would I protect a quiet wolf, if I'm adamantly trying to lynch the quiet ones?

I suppose Rikae was arguing that you could be using a reverse psychology tactic and annoying everyone into annoying you by not lynching silent players to protect a quiet wolf. A complicated and confusing bluff. I think that's too complicated and confusing to be a plan that would be risked by anyone trying to protect the quiet.

Keeping everyone talking definitely has merit, and I'd agree that it helps to force the wolves into picking someone who has left more clues to follow. I rely heavily on trying to trace back the wolf picks to come up with my theories, and if too many are without trails, I'm completely lost.

Besides, every loud wolvish word has the potential to be a slipped wolvish word. And that helps too.

On the other hand, I'd still prefer to vote on suspicion over participation.

[Celuien]

Crossed with Folwren. Nothing more to add.

[Celuien]

Well, actually, I do have something to add. As posted on the village notice board, I'll be away for the final hours of the day, so my vote will come a little early - about 7 hours from now. I'll be back around then with the vote and hopefully with a few more comments.

[Rikae]

What I mean is, a cobbler-Farael may be trying, rather blatently, to distract us from a non-quiet wolf; or, in a sublter but riskier plan, getting us all to argue against a seemingly outrageous plan and therefore overlook a quiet wolf.
Either way, Farael may be up to something.

Originally Posted by Farael

For now, Valier has posted little and said little in her few posts, so she'd be a ripe candidate for lynching. Furthermore, as some have brought up, she has acted somewhat suspiciously, so it might be a win-win situation.

The other person I mentioned. Hmm.. a little too convenient?

Originally Posted by Farael

And if you've read my arguments at all, you'd notice that what I want is a loud-speaking wolf... that's a blessing for us, since the more they talk, the more likely it is that we'll find something to pick up on and nail them.

But you don't seem interested in actually looking for a wolf among those who are talking, ie, most of us.

Originally Posted by Farael

And how would I protect a quiet wolf, if I'm adamantly trying to lynch the quiet ones?

Maybe you knew such a plan would be distasteful to most, and would get everyone else defending the quiet ones, rather than suspecting them.

I'm sorry if this all comes off as interrogation; I'm not seriously suspecting you or anyone else at the moment, just tossing thoughts around.

EDIT: Crossed with Folwren and Celuien

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I wonder whether the killing of Kitanna might not be intended to direct suspicion towards Lal, Morm and/or me. I realise it isn't having that effect, but a wolf might have hoped it would; and furthermore, Morm and I both expressed suspicion toward Valier, whocomes along today claiming the first kill is usually "out of spite" (implying Morm) and saying she wants to hear more from Lal and myself today to find out what the wolves were up to. I also don't particularly like this whole proclaiming her own innocence business - but my instincts seem to be off today, so I may be completely off base here. Just a thought.

I agree with this, Rikae! In fact I'd go so far as to venture you may have stumbled upon a tactic or a bit of strategy from someone!


Few words because it's only 7.40 am here and I ahven't woke up yet...

[Cailín]

Farael, no matter the merits of your plan, and there are some, I grant you, you are putting too much emphasis on it and this detracts from actual discussion of suspicious behaviour. Also, your plan depends on wolves actually slipping up and us being able to spot their mistakes. Especially the latter is far from certain. But I am going to let the topic rest now.

Lalwendë's latest post got all my sensors ringing and if she were not a rookie, I would be highly suspicious of her by now. The talking around and refusing to mention suspects is really a bit dodgy. I would really like to see more from her.

Mac, I didn't vote for Morm because at the moment, I was more suspicious of Farael and Farael still seems more dangerous to me. Do you mind? I am inclined to believe Morm is a cobbler rather than a wolf, if he is anything, and I am also inclined to believe that Farael is a wolf rather than a cobbler, if he is anything.

Can you explain why, for my feelings are quite the reverse. Farael may be a cobbler - if anything. His plan is now the focus of discussion instead of the wolves and this is more cobbler-ish behaviour than anything. I am more inclined still to consider him innocent, but yes. Mormegil is more possibly a wolf than a cobbler, I should think. His determined vote and clear message would lull our suspicions of him. I think a Cobbler who knows the identity of only one wolf would not have so certain a suspect, if this makes any sense at all. However, neither are very likely to receive my vote today.

So then, who will? I have to leave soon and will not return before the deadline, I'm afraid. Aside from Lalwendë, and only taking into account those who have posted so far today, I am uncertain about Valier, about Rikae, about Celuien and about Folwren.

Valier because of her early defense against Mormegil's reported suspicion, that was really no more than suspicion. She does not offer any real insights and just picks up on Farael's plan as an attack on her. I realise Valier usually acts like this, but I would have thought to see some names from her by now.

Rikae seems to make sense in general and her link to Kitanna, as was pointed out various times, makes her appear quite innocent. However, it does not sit right with me that she continues to point out Kitanna's death might be a clumsy attempt to frame her and others. She may be right, though, and she uses this to build a case against Valier. Out of my uncertains, she is the least likely to get my vote.

Celuien I find a lot more accessible today, if that makes any sense at all. I agree with most of her statements. The reason that she is on this list is mainly because of Mormegil's premature vote for her. Since I am inclined to believe in Morm's innocence (for now), I wonder what convinced him - though I seem to recall Mormegil's ancestors always to be easily convinced of someone's guilt. Also, Celuien seems to be playing a clever game. But that is like her, as I said before.

Folwren is here because she made the - in my eyes - most suspicious vote yesterday. She added a sixth name to the list, refusing to make a clear decision. Farael had also made himself a little suspicious, anyway, with his insistence on lynching the quiet folk and the vote seems therefore rather easy. I agree with most of her sentiments today, however.

It is never easy to cast a vote so early on in the day and I still feel I have little to go on.

++ Valier

In voting for her I seem to go along with Farael's plan, but aside from her being a reputed quiet one, she is really the most suspicious to me at the moment.

Lalwendë (whom I really do believe is a lot sharper than she lets on) and Folwren are my secondary suspects, Rikae and Celuien are a little behind those. Nogrod and Holbytlass have not yet posted today, but based on last dance's events I have no reason to suspect them of wolvishness.

[Farael]

Well, it's been dead quiet today... specially when compared with yesterday (sorry, I'm still not used to the "dance" terminology... todance and yesterdance?)

Anyway, it's 3 30 AM over here and I have to go to bed. I will probably be around tomorrow close to the deadline, but it's not certain that I'll be here, and since we have retractable votes anyway I will cast a vote now. I am split between Valier and Mormegil. The former based on relative silence (although she has spoken up since... but then, it was a triple-post pretty much answering my accusations) and some lack of content in the posts she does get up. The latter is a bit harder to put my finger on, but it is a mix of things. First of all, on Dance 1 he said little. At first I thought his "attack" on Rikae was a stroke of genious, but he followed his act with what... one more "extensive" post and two short, rather useless ones. This makes me think two things. First of all, he's playing it safe. Second, he's posting, so that his name is in the back of our minds and we don't consider him to be silent... just perhaps not too helpful.

Of course, Morm is not around today because of RL issues, but then, does that mean that he is an ordo? I remember this one time long ago, a villager called Malkatoj who had a very busy Real Life schedule... but still had time to be a werewolf at night.

The doubt on where Morm stands will not go away until either he's dead or he's killed us all... so I say, let's get rid of a dangerous Silent (yes Folwren, my plan and not because of Dance 2 but rather Dance 1) dancer. And Rude on top of that.

++Mormegil

I hope to be around tomorrow before the deadline to change my vote if anything happens, but if not, I wish you all a good hunt in the last few paces of this dance!!

[Nogrod]

Sorry for the late entry.

I agree that Kitanna's death was primarily a safe kill which also took out a good player. I mean that even though she gathered two votes the main feel among us seemed to be that of a beginning trust. That's many times a vital reason for a wolf kill: to get done with anyone who seems to be trusted somewhat.

But the voting does merit another look.

And then I'm trying to look at some people more closely. At least Valier's last posts have made me wonder about her a bit.

[Nogrod]

Double posting, then...

So here are the votes and the reasons given for them in the order they were made. I hope have represented the reasons about correctly.

Morm on Rikae because of floodposting.

Kit on Morm pretty random, not trusting Morm, wishing to vote anyhow.

Farael on Folwren by feeling there being something wrong (suspecting Rikae too).

Morm changing to Valier “the cobbler” because of the resentment mood (also wary of Celuien).

Cailín on Kath for being scarily good wolf and for suspecting those she herself does not.

Celuien on Morm because his behaviour is jumping out the most.

Lal on Kitanna for either flying under radar or playing cleverly.

Folwren on Farael because he voted her after hammering all the time the "kill the silent" -theory.

Mac for Kath because of an unusual lack of content.

Valier on Farael on inconsistency – following Folwren.

Rikae on Kitanna being safe and more calculated of the two (other being Cailín).

Holby on Morm for the confident "Valier the cobbler" –theory (also suspects Eomer and Naria).

Nogrod on Kath for being more dangerous and harder to lynch later (Farael being the other possible candidate).

Eomer on Kath to avoid double-lynching.

Naria on Rikae for playing boldly the unexpected wolf.


Some comments.

Now this seems funny, but as I scroll through the votes the ones that jump to my eye are those of Folwren's and Valier's. Folwren clearly votes with a bad reason as Farael had said that he is not in position to judge who is "silent" as he had to vote early. But Valier clinging to that same thing so fast and easy is even more eyebrowraising. Also, if Folwren is a wolf, she knew that Kath was innocent: thence it would be quite convenient to drop the late line of not thinking it a good idea to kill Kath...

Another thing that I noticed. Celuien, Folwren and Macalaure seem to have felt a need to vote earlier but still continued following and commenting on the game. I'm not saying that it is suspicious as such not to vote in the end even while you could do so. But there is a chance that this kind of action could speak of a need to steer the lynching and still not to leave oneself too closely scrutinised as not being one of those who will in the end actually need to make the final decisions.

Continuing from that it could also be noted that Valier, Rikae and Holby voted pretty late but did not take part in the game after that even though the vote was not going in the way they themselves had wished for.

Safety, safety...

And a funny thing: when you look at the reasons given on the first Dance gathered together they look pretty bad indeed, most of them.

[Celuien]

Time for a vote...

++ Valier

She has seemed awfully jumpy all day and seems consistently defensive, even when only relatively lightly suspected or in danger of a vote. I'd think that wolves or cobblers would tend to be the more nervous ones since they're the ones with something to hide.

I'm not sure that Morm would have attempted a double bluff with Kitanna and then immediately started a campaign against me. We both voted against him yesterday, and it would look odd if the people who voted against him suddenly died in retaliation. I think he's too clever to do that, though I would put a bold, bold strategy past him if he were a wolf. He still makes me nervous, though that has diminshed since Kitanna's death. At any rate, we still have a roping contest tomorrow, and I want to know why he voted as he did today.

Lal is being a little bit...mysterious with all the allusions to having vibes. Makes me wonder about her a little bit.

Farael strikes me as a well intentioned innocent with, shall I say, great force of convictions. I don't think he's trying to sow confusion or cause problems with his plan at all. Valier's interaction with him is another part of the reason I distrust her, as a matter of fact.

Rikae, Folwren, Cailin, Holby, Mac and Nogrod all strike me as more innocent than not, though mathematically speaking it wouldn't surprise me to find a cobbler somewhere in there. I don't have any real suspicions about them, though.

Much as I hate to admit it, Eomer doesn't seem wolvish.

I can't really get a feel for Naria.

I think that's everyone. If there's anyone I haven't mentioned, it's because nothing is really jumping out about them.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another thing that I noticed. Celuien, Folwren and Macalaure seem to have felt a need to vote earlier but still continued following and commenting on the game.

Retractables have changed my vote dynamic a little bit. Since it's not certain until the deadline, I like (other than being busy today) to be around until the end to keep an eye out for mischief or another good reason to change my vote.

Signing off for coffee, breakfast, and a quick ride on the trails!

[Nogrod]

Looking at Valier...

Dance1
#75 Tries to dismerit the “lynch the silents”-suggestion by making the point that whatever we do the wolves will accustom their ways accordingly to defeat us.

I know that killing the silent ones may sound like a good idea, but I think it folly. Whatever we say the wolves will certainly take into account. If we say kill the silent ones they will talk lots, if we say kill the loud ones they will back off.

But how does this actually dismerit the plan? Here I think Morm has a point about the cobblery: a cobbler would like to point out that we can’t use any tactics – and would like to dismerit especially Farael’s quite reasonable plan that would make the wolves talking and thence force them out in the open for the following Dances to come.

#100 Thank’s Morm for the vote and promises to come back.

#112 Goes on the footsteps of Folwren:

Oh we need to vote. Well I agree with Folwren on this one. I think Farael putting forth so much posting about killing off the silent ones, then not heeding his own advice to be well... wrong.

As I said earlier this looks like a trial to a safe vote. But it’s also pretty superficial as the reason does not hold a bit.

Dance2
#138 Speculates about reasons why Kitanna was killed and then defends herself against Morm’s suspicions. And surely this looks a bit funny:

Let me just say Morm ALWAYS suspects me the first few days....Not to say that sometimes he isn't right, but this time he has no good evidence at all to point to my wolvishness

Just read the part I have bolded... (it kind of reminds me about wolf-Roa saying “I have never been a wolf before” in one game a long time ago )

#162 She starts to really defend herself against Farael with the most elliptic fashion.

I don't consider myself to be a quiet villager, I just need time to adjust to the game and get a feel for people. This is how I have always played. ... What if you are wrong and you kill all us "silent" ones and we turn out to be Ordos, then you lose out on our help later on.

I think we all need to get the feel for people. Why should someone be immune to lynching because of that? Or why is it worse to mistakingly kill the silents (and lose their help) as the louder ones? In fact I see it the contrary way. The silents turn out to be more scary with every Dance done.
She also thinks that Farael’s plan should include the cobblers too as they should be loud and confusing. I’m not sure if that holds in these first Dances. But anyhow – as I have already said – I think the time to look seriously at the cobblers isn’t yet as we should look primarily at the wolves.

#163 She goes even more odd:

If we keep up with your little plan Farael we shall all find ourselves in a great deal of hurt when there are less and less Ordos around.

Now why is lynching the silent ones going to reduce the number of ordos more than lynching other than silent people? There seems to be no way of knowing that to anyone of us – except the wolves and the cobblers. And if Valier is either of them, then her reaction would indeed point that also another baddie might be among the quiet...
Then there was the misunderstanding stuff.

#164 Correcting the misunderstanding.

I have said that we should concentrate on finding a wolf, but Valier seems to be more cobblerish indeed (if the wolvishness thing wasn't an actual slip). Many of her points would look like that. It is also noteworthy that she has said little or nothing of a relatively large group of people. That would be a perfect cobblery (or wolvery) as her wolf (or wolfmate) would nicely stay uncommented and unlinked to her among a host of people.

I’m not saying she is the cobbler, but a very good candidate for it as far as I can see.