Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Nogrod]

Celuien has posted somewhat a lot and I have disregarded all those "x-posted with a lot, nothing to add" posts etc. and will only look at posts that I think merit a second look.

Dance1
#15 Distrust on Folwren and Eomer. As a first post this is the best place to show your suspicion on a fellow, I would say. But nothing concrete here otherwise.

#18

I'd agree that it hasn't been uncommon for wolves to use quiet folks to their advantage, so I would be inclined to choose from the quiet ones first...unless someone noisy catches my attention.

Nice and sweet, but still a bit leaning towards lynching the quiet ones. So her mate is a loud one - or a quiet one? Hard to say that early in the game.

#27 Thinking that the wolves should be very careful. Now she herself was very careful. Would that mean that her fellow in crime is too - or just the contrary? I would be inclined to see the latter the more believable one. So Cel says wolves are careful - as she is - and tries to thence divert our eyes from the more "open" players?

#69 Thoughts about almost all.
The quarrel between morm and Rikae is nothing.
Morm seems normal but bears watching.
Kath seems to be normal Kath. No alarm bells.
Farael seems like the usual innocent Farael.
Rikae is defensive but probably innocent just because of that.
Nogrod is the usual Nogrod. Helpful, analytic. Not suspicious.
Lalwende feels innocent, not familiar with her in werewolf.
Kitanna is another who does not alarm at all.
Macalaure seems not particularly out of line for day one behavior, and he did suggest the entirely reasonable modification to the lynch the silent ones plan of lynching those who say least when they do appear. *shrugs* He doesn't seem suspicious.
Eomer is a clear werewolf and should be lynched immediately.
Cailín seems calm and isn't really appearing odd.
Holbytlass is another who seems innocent.
Folwren is elegant and stoic. Not suspicious.

Now what to say of this other than what Mac already said: overtly nothing! But two things strike me here. First her open suspicion on Eomer with no grounds than the past that could be compared to her first post thing. At least it strikes out from there, but more like framing. The second one is her need to actually explain in more length why Mac is innocentish (and dare I say the thing Cel hails there is a most commomplace thought indeed - no one is so stupid as to lynch people on the numerical post count anyway). She spoke of some others with almost as great a lengtht but they were different things (see her points on morm, Rikae & Farael).
NB. Naria and Valier do not appear in her list...

Then there was this thing about cobblers that was (mis)understood?

#101 Votes for morm because

at this point, morm's behavior is jumping out at me the most

and also because he thought Valier is a cobbler.

#137 She continues her rant with morm and gives an analysis on Kitanna, arguing that the kill was a "no trail left behind"-one. But why? Was it random indeed?

The people we could lift up from Kitanna's posting according to Celuien are Rikae (she's unsure about, voted for her), morm (casts a mostly random vote as she she disagrees with him and has earlier history of not trusting him), Eomer (she disagrees with morm's judgement as she suspects him), Mac (she suspected him) and Lalwendë (voted for her). Then she claims the wolves picked her for no trails left...

Dance2
#151 Thinks that Farael is the way he is (thence not a baddie? maybe she realised he was her cobbler now?). Says Kitanna's death puts Lalwendë into the innocent category. Thinks Valier a bit jumpy and worth looking (which never came...)

#156 Argues that Rikae's suspicions about Farael using the reverse-psychology (attacking the silent ones with so much fervour that would make others go the other way) are too far fetched. Admits that that kind of tactics would force the wolves to pick those who are not leaving tracks. Well why does she come back to this again?

#171 Vote for Valier because of jumpiness and defenciveness (easy target as she was not the first one to arouse that suspicion). Then there are again points about us others in the game.
morm is kind of relieved, although with some caution.
Lalwendë is brought forwards as a possible suspicion.
Farael is given a relif of sorts, using that to ground her vote on Valier.

Rikae, Folwren, Cailin, Holby, Mac and Nogrod all strike me as more innocent than not, though mathematically speaking it wouldn't surprise me to find a cobbler somewhere in there.

Much as I hate to admit it, Eomer doesn't seem wolvish.
I can't really get a feel for Naria.

?

In the end she thought it fit to answer my very slight question about voting early but still hanging online. Nice to see it got feedback from a wolf. Another one who answered that pretty innocent question was Mac...

But what to say of all this? A moment of thinking and then I'll try to say something.