Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Cailín]

About Naria's vote: she voted by the time Celuien was under serious suspicion. Any vote not for Celuien would in hindsight be suspicious but a vote meant to save Celuien would be her on the first-to-lynch list without question: she was already suspicious. If the team indeed was Naria-Celuien (I am not convinced yet), a throwaway vote would almost be her best bet.

The voting does not condemn her, but it does increase my suspicion of her.

As to the cobblers… one of them by now is cast adrift and has not a clue anymore. The most that cobbler could do is throw a fit, confuse everyone or bide his / her time. The cobbler who knew Celuien's identity obviously did not vote for her yesterday and probably voted to save her. Ergo - this may make sense only to me - yesterDance's most suspicious vote is likely cast by Celuien's cobbler and I think it is far less likely the remaining wolf voted to keep their buddy in the game.

Naria is not Celuien's cobbler. Farael might be. He seems to have an air of desperation today. I am also considering him as the possible other wolf, to be honest. His vote for mormegil I find far more suspicious than Naria's even, who I think would -if innocent- simply enjoy suspecting Mormegil.

Of course, Macalaure's campaign against wonderful, lovely and irresistible Eomer is highly suspicious.

I still think Lalwende the Christmas Elf is a little dodgy as well.

Definitely innocent:

Eomer of the Rohirrim

Appear innocent:

Nogrod
Mormegil

Could be playing dangerous game:

Macalaure

Wary of (but could go either way):

Valier
Lalwende
Holbytlass
Folwren

Suspicious of:

Farael
Naria

[Valier]

*sigh* Well the Cobblers are doing a good job in confusing this here village. I was starting to get a feel for some players, but I keep getting these strange feelings that I am not looking in the right place....The possibility of Nogrod being the last wolf with Morm by his side as Cobbler, just keeps popping up in my head. I don't have much time today, but I will be here for the next hour and a half, before I vote, so I will see if I can justify my feelings and see if I can pick out the other confuser.

[Cailín]

Adding a little concerning Holby:

She has stayed in the background and not said much. Her votes were for mormegil and Macalaure. I did not previously find her suspicious, because her statements seemed correct and well thought-out, but if we are looking for someone who acts similarly to Wolf-Celuien, Holbytlass would be a likely candidate.

[Valier]

Dance3 votes

Mormegil-->Macalaure
Farael-->Mormegil
Naria-->Mormegil
Nogrod-->Naria


Yet to post today
Holby

Needs to talk more
Folwren
Lalwende

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Maybe I'm just really biased, but that's another thing that I find suspicious about Valier. She begins a post just there with '*sigh* the cobblers are doing a good job in confusing the village'.

Why so worried? The remaining wolf is going to have to do a quite incredible job to win this game. Our chances of winning this are so high I don't think there's any need to *sigh* about how confusing it all is. Baddies tend to do that. "Oh! I've no idea what to do! It's all too much for me to cope!" I think it's a forced design to make her look quite innocent.

Also: while the main focus is indeed the final wolf, I hardly think we should skirt over suspicious characters because they appear more cobblery. So if we do lynch a cobbler, should we not rejoice? Blast those cobblers! I say we kill both of them first, and make sure they get their proper comeuppance, and then kill the wolf. If a cobbler survives these dark days then there should be no clemency afterwards!

[Farael]

Well, I've got to go now... is the dance really ending in 2 hours? if so, the X-mas spirit must be quieting many people down.

I do think that Morm is the last wolf. He's cunning and brave enough to try and vote for his fellow wolf and then if he happens to kill her ride the tide to the end of the game. I wouldn't put it past him at all.

So I stick with my vote. I've got to go now and I shan't be back 'till after the deadline.

Good hunt.

[Valier]

I assure you Eomer, my confusion is real. I was sighing because the more and more I read the more and more I become confused. I know I am suspicious just like everyone else, but all I was saying is that I keep having this nagging feeling... I never said that I was worried.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Eomer

"Oh! I've no idea what to do! It's all too much for me to cope!" I think it's a forced design to make her look quite innocent.

Every think that it is not a design, but an actual reaction to the situation? And I never said that it was all too much for me to cope, I am here aren't I? Others may be having a hard time coping. I just don't want you to think my defense about this is odd, I just wanted to stated that I was just posting what I was feeling at the moment. I am a bit confused. So I find if I do this it helps me figure things out.

[Cailín]

I must say I agree with the lynching of suspicious characters. We are at the moment 8 innocents against 3 villains, of whom two are almost powerless, pitiful creatures. Aside from myself, there are several people in whose innocence I am fairly confident.

Therefore:

++FARAEL

He may be our second wolf, but I am as certain as one can be in this game that he is at least a baddie.

Naria may also very well be a tricksy, fanged creature and I would not be sorry to see her lynched either.

[Macalaure]

Eomer of the Rohirrim:


First Dance:

86
Some cobbler theory. His points is that theory about them is okay, but actual accusations of cobblery are useless.
Rikae and Farael (and Cailín, of course) are innocent to him, he gives reasons
Kath, Valier, Naria and Lalwende are suspicious, no reasons

88+96
More cobbler theory

107
Accuses Nogrod of using his smilies as a tactic
Defends his cobbler theorism

117
Agrees with Nogrod to turn to more pressing issues
Jokingly accuses Holby of scaremongering

124
Votes his suspect Kath to avoid double lynching

125
Starts talking about the time near the deadline


Everything he says makes sense. He avoids to be aggressive or argumentative about his suspicions. His vote is reasonable. Perfect good guy.
Too perfect good guy to me, but this is just the first dance, and if you don't have a good argument against someone, it's better not to make one up.


Second Dance:

136
Apologises to Kath
Thinks Rikae and morm innocent because of Kitanna's death, doubts wolves would play so risky at this stage

183
Says Kitanna was killed because of her vote or voters
Reaches the conclusion that Valier is suspicious, mostly because she reached different conclusions than he
Believes Nogrod is innocent

197
Suspicious about Folwren because of her defense
Votes Valier saying: "Even if we fail today (mathematically probable) we have good stuff to look back on the coming days."


On its own, his suspicions or Valier are not suspicious. But at this time we have already two votes for and a devastating accusal by Nogrod of her. Eomer obviously doesn't want to upset too many people by being suspicious of them. The one he goes after is someone who is already on the list of many others. His suspicion of Folwren falls into the same category, I think.
Then there's the sentence I quoted. I've seen many a wolf saying things like that to not make people worry about a lynched innocent.


Third Dance:

226
Rhetorical questions about Naria (including use of smilies)
Says everything about her is suspicious

231
Asks Naria what I said that made her change her vote. Doesn't see anything revolutionary in what I said
Says he doesn't need to elaborate why everything about Naria is suspicious

252
Rikae's death is over-analysed
Defends himself against my suspicion, bringing the smilies up again
Says I'm scaremongering and trying "to whip up an anti-Eomer frenzy"

261
Says Valier's suspicious because of her confusion
Says that the remaining wolf has to do an incredible job, so there's no reason to worry
Thinks we should no longer distinguish between supposed cobblers and supposed wolves.


Again, he goes after the one who is already high on many people's radar. The way he does it is highly suspicious in my mind, using rhetorical questions and giving no solid reasons besides smilies. I wonder why he's trying to lead us away from looking at Rikae.
I think his last post goes over the top. Sure, our chances are pretty good right now, but there's surely no reason for us to be as careless as he wants us to. Especially not with two cobblers around.

I'm testing the waters with:

++Eomer

I hope somebody joins me, if not, I'll be looking for something else. I see a showdown between morm and Naria coming.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I only have a few minutes.

It's true that Celuien's cobbler was there yesterDance and should have tried to save her. So s/he would act only after s/he noticed things going wrong. The last votes (when Celuien had started to rise in the polls):

Macalaure-->Celuien (Cel-2, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1,Mac-1)
Valier-->Celuien (Cel-3, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)
Eomer-->Valier (Cel-3, Val-3, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)
Folwren-->Farael (Cel-3, Val-3, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Lalwende--> Valier (Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Naria --> morm (Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-2, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Rikae --> Mac (Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-2, Fol-1, Mac-2, Farael-1)
Rikae X Mac --> Celuien (Cel-4, Val-4, Morm-2, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Naria X morm --> Celuien (Cel-5, Val-4, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)

So if Celuien's cobbler is there, then we have only two baddies in the list of Naria, Valier, Farael, Macalaure (+- Naria). And Cel's cobbler could be anyone...

To me Naria's vote-change in the end looks most suspicious (in a sense of wolvery, not cobblery). She thought of throwing a cast away -vote and immediately realised the situation. Remember there was most probably going to be a double-lynch and Celuien was about to go. How would we have looked at her vote on morm then?

Okay. My vote stays.

I hope we get the last one toDance.