Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Nogrod]

So this is what we have left?

Farael as a Fair-looking Orc
Nogrod as a Nice Choirboy
Lalwendë as a (Mischievous Little) Christmas Elf
Macalaure as a Mime
Cailín as a Robin
Holbytlass as a Court Jester

And of these two are cobblers and one is a wolf? Which are the conditions for losing/winning? Durelin should give them to us. I mean: are we just doomed or actually screwed already?

[Durelin]

Yes, yes...always either winning or losing... Well, the Wolf has not won until only he/she and one other dancer is alive, or if the Wolf and the two Cobblers are the only ones left alive. Just so it's nice and straightforward. If toDance you do not kill the remaining Wolf, you Innocents may get a little something just to keep things interesting...and...going...

So, keep playing. Baddies: don't figure you've won. Innocents: don't despair.

The game's not over yet.

[Nogrod]

Okay Macalaure. Let's settle this as well as we can. I know you have to leave early and so let's get down to the bussiness - as I would think it highly unethical to try to settle this one-sidedly while you're away.

I'm most astonished that you're alive after what you did to Celuien. I really am. But I'm also a bit confused that I myself continue living. It's not impossible that the wolf changes tactics according to the general mood - and all the time enjoying the innocents tearing each other apart.

So either you're a backstabbing wolf or then the wolf plays with us both?

What say you?

I'll dive into the yesterDance's late moments for a while but will be looking forward to your comments...

[Macalaure]

No time for big analysis, but these are my feelings:

The wolf goes for the quiet/misguided/trailless ones. S/he is obviously not scared of crafty players like Nogrod. This means that, a) Nogrod is the wolf, b) Nogrod is a cobbler and the wolf knows, c) our wolf has a lot of guts and trusts his/her cobblers to lead people astray.

I don't think I will be voting Nogrod toDance, because he's too great a loss when innocent. If I survive this day and night, I will be looking very closely at him, but not now. I remain highly suspicious.

Holbytlass has been looking fishy to me all the game. Her recent theory about me is the most far-fetched thing I have seen in a long time (no offense ). I think she is a cobbler, if not something worse.

I have very little doubt that Farael is a cobbler, most probably Celuien's one.

Lalwende is new to the game, but she already beats mormegil in secretiveness. If I had time I would to an analysis of her, but alas!

Cailín looks somewhat innocent, but I'm not sure.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

c) our wolf has a lot of guts and trusts his/her cobblers to lead people astray.

Notwithstanding the chance that you're the wolf here this seems to me the most likely one. But who could that be then? Cailín, Holby, Lalwendë? I do not agree with you that Holby's points on you were "most far-fetched", though...

I think I need to reconsider Lalwendë seriously now, or maybe Cailín; no one has actually suspected her so far seriously (as we have not suspected Holby or Lal either). Maybe it's time we end this first showing tenderness and start really looking at what Lal has done so far...

Mac: I don't know how long you will be online, but I'm afraid I have a point or two that makes me suspect you the most at this moment. Check to begin with what morm and Eomer had to say of you to get a hang of it. I try to be as fast as I can but as a non-native speaker it takes a while to complete my post about yesterDance...

[Macalaure]

You make me wonder, Nogrod. Even if you don't agree with my last point on Holby, why do you dismiss her possible guilt without much comment? What makes you feel better about her than about Cailín or Lal?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

You make me wonder, Nogrod. Even if you don't agree with my last point on Holby, why do you dismiss her possible guilt without much comment? What makes you feel better about her than about Cailín or Lal?

Nothing. And I don't think I said anything like that anyhow... I would keep an open mind here to all directions - what else can we do?

[Farael]

What were those four thinking... we went from "moderately successful" to "in dire need for help". We've got two chances to nail that sneaky wolf, and it would be rather favourable if we got at least a cobbler today. The 'lucky' thing is that the wolf might help us out and get a cobbler tonight (toRest) as s/he does not know who they are. He might guess, but we can hope that he'll get it wrong.

If Macalure is the remaining wolf, that's good news, since he thinks me a cobbler... thus even if he gets one cobbler right, he must think the other is an ordo. It would also explain why I've survived thus far, even though I haven't been exactly vocal the last two days.

ToDance RL might cut me some slack... but then, it might not. My friend who lives in Montreal is visiting here and so if he calls me up...

But I'm here now, and I have a few thoughts to share with you all.

Lawlende has been hiding behind two masks. Yes, she's been very silent, which upsets me since now it's too late to lynch someone on those basis alone. But then, there is something else. Everyone is "cutting her some slack" since she's rather new to this game but... am I mistaken or is this her second or third game? I've seen some players excell from game 1.... I've seen some that took a little more time to get used to the tricks of this game.... but I've never seen someone take two games to say anything of value. And we know she's intelligent, so it's not like this whole thing has gone way over her head.

I think that Lawlende has something to hide, but I'm thinking she's a cobbler. A wolf can't risk being THAT silent.. she must've known that sooner or later we'd suspect her, and this plays right in the hand of the wolf. While getting a cobbler is much better than getting an ordo, at this point in the game we should be trying to get the wolf or nothing. We won't have many second-chances.

But then, who IS the wolf? I'm inclined to think Nogrod Innocent, or cobbler at the worst, so IMO he's not the wolf. Macalure is definitely an option, although he might be the other cobbler if my theory about Lalwende is off.

I just found out that Cailin is playing... I honestly can't recall reading more than two posts by her. Yet I'm not as suspicious of her, perhaps because I have not enough material to form a suspicion, but nonetheless I think her a silent ordo.

I just noticed something

Originally Posted by Macalure

My goodness...

My... goodness...

Note how he italices the "good" in the second "goodness". IF that's not a cobbler hint, I've never seen one. To me, that's saying that he thinks it "good" what happened last night.

Now folks, if you agree with me I will say do not lynch him If we know him to be a cobbler, the best thing we can do right now is ignore him.

Remember, we have two lynchings left and three baddies. IF we waste a kill on a cobbler, that means that we have only one kill left to actually find the wolf. So for now, I suggest we all ignore Macalure and concentrate on finding the wolf.

My suspects at this point on the day:

Lalwende: Possibly a cobbler, but maybe a wolf
Macalure: Cobbler, almost certainly
Cailin: Too silent to know either way.

Those I won't try to lynch right now
Nogrod I think him innocent, and definitely not a wolf. If he's a cobbler, hats off to him, but if I know Nogrod at all, he's just an ordo.
Holbytlass speaks little but what she does say makes sense to me. At this point in the game you just can't suspect everyone who doesn't talk enough, so I'm choosing her as an "ordo". At least for now.

[Farael]

I have cross-posted with Nogrod and Macalure... I'm sad to see I'm thought of as a cobbler. If you think about it, Celuien's cobbler has no reason to despair. If anything, he has to be extra-careful not to get the wolf to kill him at night. Why would he despair, if he can still win if the other wolf wins?

I still don't suspect Nogrod over it... I can understand his reasoning, I just don't share it. Not only 'cos I know I'm not a cobbler, but also because it makes no sense for either cobbler to despair. YesterDance there was still a lot of game to be played, and even worse, today the game seems to be in control of the baddies. Think me a cobbler if you must, but at least read my last post carefully. I think I might be on to something, specially with Mac's italized good.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Farael

Think me a cobbler if you must, but at least read my last post carefully. I think I might be on to something, specially with Mac's italized good.

Yes you might... and we really should read it carefully! Like:

Originally Posted by Farael

Note how he italices the "good" in the second "goodness". IF that's not a cobbler hint, I've never seen one. To me, that's saying that he thinks it "good" what happened last night.

Now folks, if you agree with me I will say do not lynch him If we know him to be a cobbler, the best thing we can do right now is ignore him.

So the cobbler Farael defending the master here? Do not lynch him, he's only a cobbler? Not bad, not bad... Either you have fooled us to believe you were Celuien's cobbler and in fact are Mac's cobbler, or then you just sense it? Right?

Needs to think about this...

[Macalaure]

Something else:

If we lynch an innocent today, there will be (most probably) one innocent, two cobbler and a wolf left tomorrow. Village loses.
If we lynch the wolf, we win (naturally)
If we lynch a cobbler, we will probably have two innocents, a cobbler and a wolf tomorrow. With double lynchings, this is a fair chance.

What I'm saying is: If in doubt, go for the cobbler. Just don't lynch an innocent.

[Farael]

Nogrod you have just made me laugh

Have you not realized what I said? We have TWO lynches left and THREE Baddies. Should I spell it out for you?

If we lynch someone whom we believe a cobbler, and then at night the wolf gets an ordo, that leaves us with only ONE chance to get the wolf. It'll be wolf or nothing.

If we are fairly sure whom a cobbler may be, as I am of Macalure then it is on our best interests to ignore him and try to find the Wolf with our two remaining lynches. Remember that the cobbler alone loses... if fwe get the remaining wolf, whether toDance or tomorrowDance, we win. If we don't, no matter if we get both cobblers, we lose.

So what would you rather do? go after someone who's very likely a cobbler, or give yourself a chance to find the wolf?

[Nogrod]

Morm and Eomer were the two people here I had began to trust somewhat as they acted relaxed enough and had good points (from my point of view eg. suspecting the same people I was suspecting). I'm really sorry they're gone and I had no chance to meddle in the last voting because of my London-friends (RL).

I also must admit that I greatly suspected Naria and Valier. I had some bad memories of those two playing together just a short while ago. And they looked suspicious to me. Obviously they weren't the baddies.

But a few points from yesterDance then.

Originally Posted by morm#251

Naria to top the list, Mac, Farael are the others. Three people singing the same off beat tune with spurious logic as to why I'm guilty. [...] if you take the general feel of those three or four I promise that at least two of the three are in there likely all three.

It's not the first time in this game I agree with him exactly. Now Naria is gone and she was innocent. So that leaves Mac and Farael. Farael has played too bluntly to be a wolf. His vote on morm yesterDance I think particularly telling here. I regard him as a cobbler now if nothing else comes in to the horizon - and thence would not advise to lynch him without better arguments as we need to get the wolf here. But Mac then?

Originally Posted by Eomer#252

Anyway, I noticed in Celuien's post #94 that she makes use of the Funnily enough, Mac does that in post #232 and #239. All when trying to pacify potential adversaries. Desperate to appear friendly? It's something I've seen before and it flushed out a wolf. (Bad memories )

Anyway, I think that point, as trivial as it may seem, is far more substantial than anything Mac has raised against me. Yet I am apparently his top suspect. Of course, as Mac himself admits, there's nothing wolvish about me, and there's nothing I've said that he can point to and say 'Look at that!' But still.

Know what I think, Mac? You're scaremongering. You're eager to whip up an anti-Eomer frenzy because you know how easy it is. When you repeat the assertion that I am very suspicious, but without any semblance of a reason why — other than that I'm supposedly playing like Celuien (?) — it makes me wonder.

Now why would Mac do such a thing as an innocent villager? It doesn't sound like him anyway.

Originally Posted by Cailín#256

Naria is not Celuien's cobbler. Farael might be. He seems to have an air of desperation today. I am also considering him as the possible other wolf, to be honest.

I noted the same desperation there but would disagree with his status still. He's a cobbler. I'm pretty convinced of it. He wouldn't have made such a number of himself and his plan if he were a wolf. I really trust him to be the cobbler (of Celuien). If he is a wolf you should grind me to a mincemeat then... (sorry about another Finnish idiom)

Okay. I changed my mind and will post this before I get to see the rest of it, just to give Mac a chance to answer even these few points. I would hate losing an innocent Mac... but this is all under making... sorry.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It's not the first time in this game I agree with him exactly. Now Naria is gone and she was innocent. So that leaves Mac and Farael. Farael has played too bluntly to be a wolf. His vote on morm yesterDance I think particularly telling here. I regard him as a cobbler now if nothing else comes in to the horizon - and thence would not advise to lynch him without better arguments as we need to get the wolf here. But Mac then?

morm's theory, as much as I liked it as well (wouldn't have agreed to the quadruple otherwise), is out of the window since both Naria and Valier are innocent. I think we should think anew and look aside of yesterDay's doomed path. It was rather unfruitful in hindsight, wasn't it?

Now why would Mac do such a thing as an innocent villager? It doesn't sound like him anyway.

Don't know what you mean exactly. You're using smilies the same way. I don't know what he meant with scaremongering, since I think I was just suspecting him in a regular way.

[Macalaure]

Mac thinks Farael to be cobbler, Farael thinks Nogrod and Holby innocent

Should Mac now think Nogrod and Holby are evil? Hmm...

Or is it the other way around? Is Farael using reverse psychology... or reverse reverse psychology??