WW XXIIX - Queer Lodgings

[Nogrod]

I had started to make some general remarks and trying to find fex. why I find Ang and Meneltarbo worrysome - and I try to come up with them somewhat later - but this just calls for some comments.

I'll only comment a few that I think need clarification - and through which I can make some general points. The rest I find just too far-fetched or insignificant to take up (and I don't want to make an essay of this and use the whole night [RL] on it).

Either we read English very differently Kathin (which is possible as this is not my native language anyhow), or then you're making a good job trying to twist and intentionally misread most of what I've said... I have not yet forgotten my suspicion of you.

About halves the village, suspecting those who had barely posted and thinking those who had posted more innocent.

I think I never said I thought them more innocent.

Originally Posted by Bofgrod

From what has passed this far - and it's early, no question about it - I would say that I would be highly reluctant to help with the lynching of Nori88, Dwalin Dwancing Spawn of Fundin, Durin the Deathless or Voloin as they have actually been playing the game with some openness. And looking at the latest, I should include our lord Thorin Anguirelshield to my list as he seemed to start making points.

And this is a point of major difference. If we have people like Nori88, Spawn etc. in the game, why to lynch them on Day1 based on some pretty random accusations (as it normally, not everytime, goes)? What a loss to the village! If you're a wolf you would be very happy to get rid of outstanding players on Day1 randomness, surely.

And here I would also disagree with Ang's a bit too far-taken suspicion on Voloin's point about leaving myself and Nori to the Seer. I have other reasons to be a bit alarmed with Voloin as I stated yesterDay, but this I find only reasonable. Why kill the players who actually contribute a lot so long as we have a Seer to check them? I have been a bit laid back with Nori88 yesterDay and toDay as I wait for our Seer to come forwards one Day or another. Meanwhile we can concentrate on others just to make it sure we don't lynch a valuable villager ourselves. (Still three wolves left, so even if Nori is a wolf there are two others to catch - surely, if there would be a good reason to suspect Nori I would be the first to vote him, but this far I haven't seen one, at least big enough to take the risk) I hope this answers also to your point on #73 - and to be hones, have you seen a Seer who waits to collect all the three wolves until s/he reveals the knowledge? C'mon! Your comment smelled a wolf a hundred yards as I know you're an intelligent and an experienced player...

Originally Posted by Kathin

Post 63: Argues with Eomer saying that analysis is good on Day 1 as it heightens the chance of catching a wolf. Yes it does, but if a wolf is orchestrating the analysis it can lower the chance, and it was Nogrod who tried to move everyone away from the in-character stuff.

I have not denied anyone else to do analysis - I don't have any mandate to require others not to analyse. Please! Is trying to move people away from pure in-character bantering a wolvish act? Really? Kathin, are you slipping again? From the villagers point of view getting rid of nonsense is good, from the wolves point of view it isn't.

Originally Posted by Kathin

Post 88: Asks if anyone is willing to help lynch Eomer. It's so blatant, he wants Eomer dead. Would a wolf be that bold?

No. Or should I say "that stupid"? I've said this before but if you don't read what I say, I say it again. Why on earth would a wolf risk that to get a certain innocent killed instead of another innocent (Glóanna was innocent too - but how about you?)? I mean, had it been Roa_Aoife or someone like her as another one and another innocent, then a wolf might have thought it important enough to take the risk of getting rid of exactly her, but really...

Originally Posted by Kathin

Post 96: Not sure what he's advising people to do, it almost looks like he's trying either to save Eomer or to get a double lynch. What were you up to Nogrod?

Look again. I tried to remind that they should not lynch Dori or Spawn (who had 2 votes both) by leaving it even on 2 votes. Read the situation and you see it. So trying to twist things again now aren't you.

I mean that was the most cunningly wrong-read analysis I've ever seen (I only commented on the ones I thought were bad enough). Put on a time when she thought I would not be online anymore, now was it? Trying to maintain the suspicion on me with no fear of myself correcting the things or asking people to look at it themselves?

Sorry Kathin, you top my list still... and I do hope now that you're not a misguided innocent. But innocents admit their mistakes and turn the other way to actually help the village which side they're on. I have been insecure with you and a few times I have thought whether I should drop my suspicions. But after this one, I just can't.

Look at all the people who have been quick to back Kathin's zero-points. There I'm afraid, you will find one wolf more.

PS. I was already thinking that I shouldn't mave made this post as it's a bit over-reacting to points that have no merit and thence should not be even reacted, but as I now see how Meneltarbo has been swayed, I must say I needed to made it. But was there a need to sway Meneltarbo?

PS.2 Goddammit! Let me do some actual wolf-hunting for a while! 2.40AM here and I'm off to sleep. I'm sorry, the wolves swayed this Day over me and I was weak as I thougt I should defend to gain one more Day. Remember this later...

[Kath]

Part two of the Nogrod analysis - and I've just seen that he posted a few minutes ago. Stay there Noggie! I'll answer you.

Day 2:
Post 114: Argues with Boro saying there was no more reason to kill Eomer than anyone else, so accusations of ring-leading and cunning are useless. Not entirely true. Eomer had left very little in the way of a trail and is known to be a fearsome opponent. If Nogrod is a wolf there was therefore quite some reason to kill Eomer over others, especially if he was planning on killing spawn during the Night, as this removes two very strong elements from the game. Also says Boro isn't making sense as he is saying Nogrod is both ring-leader and failing to take the initiative, but the two are different things. One can be a ring-leader without having to make decisions. Plant a few subtle seeds and then sit back and watch them grow. Nogrod waited for someone else to vote Eomer before he did, so not taking the initiative. He then explains what happened in the voting and says that were he a wolf he would have voted earlier. Well how helpful of him to tell us, we certainly won't suspect him if he now doesn't do that!

Post 116: Notes a typo.

Post 119: Thinks spawn was killed for her ability to analyse and because she left little in the way of a trail - very true. But he then says that she was a second choice, that the wolves must have thought someone else was being protected. What? Yes there's a Protector around (or was at the time) but that doesn't mean spawn wasn't their first choice to kill. If they thought she was the Seer or that she was too dangerous to stay alive they would want to kill her, and if the Protector had made himself useful then so be it, they'd go after her the next Night (assuming he couldn't protect the same person twice in a row). Odd thing to say. Says he will not focus on specific people in case they're innocent. Marvellous way of not leaving a trail eh?

Post 122: Replies to Boro's comment that it would be easy to get Eomer lynched in a sarcastic manner, presumably referring to the fact that Boro said he was clever. But again there is a difference. Even if it is easy to get Eomer lynched it takes a clever wolf to clear their tracks. Of course if that wasn't what Boro meant then it does make him look suspicious as there is confusion there.

Post 126: Says Menel is suspicious and that he's flip-flopping. We had this argument yesterDay and there seems little point in repeating it. To me what Menel said about this makes sense and it is Nogrod that is making a mountain out of a molehill not Menel. Also says Volo looks somewhat suspicious for supporting him.

Post 131: Continuation of that argument.

Post 134: And again.

Post 136: Thinks one of those who voted for Eomer may have been wolvish, specifically Volo since he thinks Lommy innocent. Points out that any suspicion of Gloanna and Kath disappeared due to the extensive analysis of the voting events from the previous Day. Seems to clear Gloanna and Boro and suspects Kath, Ang, Valier and Menel. Reasons for all of course.

Post 157: Gives a score update and asks for people to stop spreading votes.

Post 161: After being confronted by Boro about Gloanna Nogrod does an immediate flip-flop and decides that actually he does think she's guilty after all.

Post 163: Thinks it odd that everyone seems to be agreeing on certain aspects. Sudden suspicion of Rune and continuing suspicion of Menel and asks that we look at early voters the next Day. Did that happen? I've not read through much of toDay yet. Thinks Lommy yesterDay due to her reactions the Day before around the voting. Says he will vote Kath or Gloanna but will try to look at Valier and Volo too.

Post 167: Points out Gloanna's reaction to being suspected and thinks it odd.

Post 171: Thinks Volo wolvish because he's looking out for hidden signs, which as a wolf he would be doing in case his fellow wolves tried to give him advice. Fair point except that the wolves probably wouldn't contact each other on the thread since they can do it by PM just a few hours later.

Post 172: Says he too was thinking what Kitanna said was a confession of guilt.

Post 173: Voting update and says Kitanna's vote makes him think she's guilty.

Post 175: Mentions deadline.

Post 180: Having dropped suspicion of everyone else he votes Gloanna based on her last posts.

The sudden concentration on Gloanna is understandable, but then many people were doing this so it's hard to tell much from that. It seems less likely that Boro would be a fellow wolf, the arguments are just so vicious, but it is possible. Volo again seems possible as a conspirator too.

[Kath]

Firstly Nogrod I am not trying to twist your words. I am biased because I believe you to be guilty, but there is no deliberate manipulation here.

I think I never said I thought them more innocent.

Here we do have a misunderstanding. I meant more innocent as in less possibly guilty than the others.

If we have people like Nori88, Spawn etc. in the game, why to lynch them on Day1 based on some pretty random accusations (as it normally, not everytime, goes)?

I have no argument about that. I don't believe I said anything about it at all.

and to be hones, have you seen a Seer who waits to collect all the three wolves until s/he reveals the knowledge?

It depends on the situation. A Seer very rarely reveals themselves before at least one wolf has been lynched because they don't have time to collect enough useful information before luck or analysis has found a wolf. In addition a Seer would normally only reveal if they were in danger or if they did have all the necessary information. Usually the Seer will wait until they have all the wolves still alive unless they are about to be lynched.

Please! Is trying to move people away from pure in-character bantering a wolvish act?

Not in the slightest. It's just that from you it feels wolvish.

Look again. I tried to remind that they should not lynch Dori or Spawn (who had 2 votes both) by leaving it even on 2 votes. Read the situation and you see it. So trying to twist things again now aren't you.

No. I didn't understand what you were doing so I asked, and I'm afraid I still don't. You didn't want Eomer lynched? Or you didn't want both of them lynched?

Nogrod, believe me, I can write an incriminating analysis without a shred of evidence to go on and fully aware that the person I am analysing is innocent, but that is not what I'm doing here. I am suspicious of you and I'm trying to work out why. I have to vote now and my vote will go to you because, as I believe you said, I have been very one-sided toDay and have focused entirely on you. This is due to a lack of time and the fact that if I don't take the time to look at you properly it will annoy me for the next few Days.

++ NOGROD

I have other suspects. Volo is one and Ang another. I was suspicious of Boro but that has abated recently, though if you do turn out to be innocent I will look at him again.

I'm sorry I have no time to analyse what Nogrod has said toDay. I will answer Durelin before I go but after that I won't be back.

[Kath]

You're a better player than this, Kath. You're blindly going for the biggies. It's like what Boro said: something about a monkey being able to get people to lynch Eomer. Well, it's pretty darned easy to get people to lynch Nogrod, Boro, and Ang, too, because they all have a way with being at the center of things. And since we've got all three going at each other (if not all very seriously), it's even easier to rap up more suspicions of them.

If those three, or any one of them, is/are wolves...well, that's not good. But I think you're harping on them just for the sake of harping on them, stirring up "fear," because people see them as among the "big dogs," the good players, and so the nastiest wolves.

Actually, the nastiest wolves are the ones that go utterly unnoticed, and you're doing a good job keeping the attention off them, whether you mean to or not. And personally, I think you know what you're doing

I'm assuming that the role allocation was completely random, in which case it is entirely possible that the three loudmouths could indeed be the three wolves. Right? It's also possible that Valier, Rune and me are the wolves. There is no difference in the level of probability. And actually, it's extremely difficult to get someone like Boro lynched after Day 1 if there is no reason for it.

Anyway, til tomorrow all.

[Meneltarmacil]

I'd already been somewhat suspicious of you before Kath had posted her analysis, Nogrod. Plus, she didn't mention the primary reason why I had thought you a wolf: The way Rune mentioned you.

I'm not going to take Kath entirely at her word right now, though. I'm probably going to vote for Rune son of Bjarne toDay. My posts about you have been mostly to do with Rune as well; I'm not totally gung-ho about lynching you, I simply find you to be suspicious in light of what Rune's been up to.

Keep in mind, though, that this whole Rune-Nogrod connection I've proposed is not the only line of reasoning I've been using against Rune.

[Nogrod]

Kathin dear, you're getting me even more confused by now as I'd need to go to sleep really...

I can't see we're talking about the same posts! Just one before I go as it bears on some general things too...

Post 161: After being confronted by Boro about Gloanna Nogrod does an immediate flip-flop and decides that actually he does think she's guilty after all.

Read the post itself and my comment on this same suspicion earlier toDay. And surely now you use the word flip-flop pretty mischievously. The villagers are ready to correct their suspicions the moment they think they were wrong because more important than to look streamlined and steady is that they don't get it wrong. The wolves can be consistent as they know the situation from the beginning. And please tell me, if I was a wolf, why should I have made that turn and get all the attention? Wouldn't I have just nicely voted someone else, like you (if there could be a chance you were innocent) and get away with it, looking consistent and therefore by your logic, innocent?

Sorry that I have no time to answer your answers. I do disagree them, though (surprise?).
But just look at the quality of your points:

Quote:
Please! Is trying to move people away from pure in-character bantering a wolvish act?

Not in the slightest. It's just that from you it feels wolvish.

So? If you say that it is wolvish from me to call for serious discussion and begging people to stop the nonsense on Day1, I don't know with whom you have played before this. Not with me, anyway... But if you're a wolf you would try everything, trying to add all possible things, a bit believable and the bad just to make the oimpression there's a lots of stuff to be suspicious about. Wolf tactics, again...


PS.

Originally Posted by Orilin on Kathin

Actually, the nastiest wolves are the ones that go utterly unnoticed, and you're doing a good job keeping the attention off them, whether you mean to or not. And personally, I think you know what you're doing.

Exactly so. Being under pressure you're catering for your fellows, like Meneltarbo? Voloin? Okay, just questionmarks up to now. If I'm alive tomorrow I will at last have to look at them for good.

And I'm a bit uncomfortable with Ang also, but something of that later toDay as I have slept.

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, I've tried to heed suggestions to look at people other then the argumentative ones, and Rune really does have some wolvish qualities to him. However, it seems that in our haste to argue over Nogrod, whom I mentioned as a possible co-conspirator, the main point of my message has been lost.

Rune son of Bjarne is probably a wolf. I'm letting Nogrod go for the moment, as Kath isn't particularly trustworthy and may be twisting some things.

I regret contributing to another set of duelists here. If someone has any insights on Rune, I'm perfectly willing to discuss them.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

WOW never have one person mentioned me so much and the rest been so quiet. . .facinating stuff.

And yes Boro, I do enjoy waching other people fight from the safty of the croud rather than being in there getting brused. The only problem is that there is actually a bigger responisbility when you just watch.

3 people gives me the creeps here, it is Boro, Ang and Nogrod. They are having a lot of quarrel between them and whenever I will side with one the other will bring up a good counter argument. One of them simply has to be a wolf, maybe more than one.

Boro did shoot after sparrows with cannons in his case against ang, but then Ang did use my words be on there extend, both things very wolfish things to do. Nogrod could be a bold wolf. . .well, he is always bold so of course he would be so as well as a wolf. He has an extrodinary talent of taking the lead of a group, it can be a bless or a course and often it is hard to tell the difference until the end.

If these are indeed the 3 wolves then I shall hail them for their boldness and level of cunningness, but chances are that there only one or none. As I said I belive there is atleast 1 wolf amongst them, but I could be wrong, I often am.

Now I will return to my corner and see how things play out.

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, I doubt I'll be able to thoroughly read everything in the morning, so...

++Rune son of Bjarne

[Boromir88]

I'm just going to wing out a bunch of random quotes that I find peculiar, maybe they can help me figure things out here...

One point of interest I have found deals with Dancing Spawn...I was going back through to see if there was anything in her posts that would get the wolves to kill her. At first I just thought they wanted to get rid of a good player, but now I'm not so sure:

I figured out, though, what was bugging me with Thorin, and perhaps even more with Eomi. Well, to some extend with Kathin, too. It's the odd phenomenon when people whom I know to be really smart seem to be dumbing down themselves. For example, I don't believe for one second that checking the admin thread for missing information or figuring out the twisted names would have been an impossible task for anyone here, but such behaviour makes it easier for wolves to approach other people and get into discussion.

Now it was Anguirel who came out and asked about the twins, Kath followed with a post that the twins were traitors, in which case Spawn (one of the twins) came back saying no they were for the villagers. I wonder if this was an attempt to draw out one of the twins.

A wolf (though I think an innocent would be concerned as well) would want to know about the twins. The problem is Spawn comes right out and explains it here, why were Ang and Kath 'dumbing down' they could have looked at the town records? It wouldn't have been all that difficult. When Spawn came out and pointed to them that no the twins weren't traitors for the wolves, perhaps that gave the wolves exactly what they wanted? They realized the twins were not on their side and perhaps that cued them in that Spawn was one of the twins.

This puts some bad light on Ang and Kath. I think Kath looks the most wolvish of the two. Ang I could imagine as an innocent asking such a question so we would know what we're up against. Kath though comes out and gives a false answer about them Saying:

From what I've heard the Twins are traitors, looking to their own survival only.

I wonder where she 'heard' this, as it certainly wasn't in the town records anywhere.

I'm thinking the wolves wanted to find out about the twins...well they could have checked the records if they wanted to know who's side they were on and what their purpose was. So, why come out and ask, unless to draw one of them out?

That's something I odd I found on Day 1, I'm going to go through Day 2...don't know if I'll get to it tonight or tomorrow morning.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why kill the players who actually contribute a lot so long as we have a Seer to check them? I have been a bit laid back with Nori88 yesterDay and toDay as I wait for our Seer to come forwards one Day or another. Meanwhile we can concentrate on others just to make it sure we don't lynch a valuable villager ourselves.

What makes a "valuable villager", Bofgrod?

Not necessarily a verbose one, I can tell you that. Some of our players, myself included, could publish books of werewolf wisdom if they wanted but have had catastrophic careers!

Instituting some kind of elite where the loudest float about on bubbles of each other's esteem, and only the riff-raff are considered voteworthy bar the Seer's intervention, is, and I will not back down from this, utter madness. It places a lot of power in the hands of a vulnerable Seer who may already have been correctly identified by wolves last night. And it's a dangerous principle anyway.

If you really believed that you and, say, Nori had a right to walk free of suspicion, then you would be very pompous. Instead, though, I think you have an ulterior motive.

What about this bizarre tiff with Nori you've had? Agreed on that I am at best flaky and at worst demonic, you snap at each other for a little and then, stroking your beards, call a gruff stalemate and go back to scowling at me again. This phoney war looks to me like a dance on the part of one party or possibly both.

[Anguirel]

I will vote in half an hour. In the meantime, I'd be very interested to see a rebuttal.

[Boromir88]

It places a lot of power in the hands of a vulnerable Seer who may already have been correctly identified by wolves last night.~Anguirelshield

How do you know the Wolves targeted the Seer last night? Or that's who they believe they had?

I may still vote for you yet Ang, with comments like that one.

[Anguirel]

Oh, come on. Hadn't that occurred to anyone else? I made a slightly more subtle reference to exactly this problem in my "lament for the dead" post that you despised so much. I believe in honesty - the Seer may be in great danger and we can't rely on them to do our detective work for us.

[Boromir88]

It just looks like you and Nogrod are trying to stir up Seer talk with a little over an hour left of voting.

I hate your first post of the day because it looks sneaky. You give some congrats than warn us that we're in danger. You advise the Seer to stay hidden unless he/she feels their in danger.

Whether it's what we're all thinking or not, I don't care. I don't want this last hour diverging into talking about the Seer and whether the Seer is the next one. And I'm gonna call out anybody who does.

Our task is to get a wolf, not argue about what the Seer's job is. The Seer knows their job and I trust the Seer to be able to do their job as they see fit.

[Anguirel]

Exactly. But to trust the Seer to the extent that we give up on thinking outside the box ourselves, which is what Bofgrod suggests? Ludicrous.

Which is why I must now vote -

++BOFGROD

I think this is unlikely to succeed, but I wholeheartedly hope it does, after all, find its mark.