WW XXIIX - Queer Lodgings - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Anguirel · 01-15-2007, 03:25 AM

It's fortunate that I think you a wolf, because a schism between two innocents as loud as us would be a terrible misfortune...

Anguirel · 01-15-2007, 03:32 AM

I wish to make another of my astonishingly accurate predictions.

Beorn will shortly produce a painfully long "analysis" of everything I've written, in which every joke, insult, defence or attack will be construed as commands to secret accomplices, in which hairs will be split (ho ho) to produce accusations of inconsistency, and whose conclusions I could probably write now, in my sleep.

The rest of the day will then consist in obsessing about whether or not I am guilty. I won't bother to defend myself. An innocent, though quite probably not me, will be hanged in the general confusion.

It would be very nice if for once my prediction didn't come true.

I really wish I were a wolf, because if so I would currently have an ego five times larger than phantom's. But I regretfully insist that that is not the case.

Anguirel · 01-15-2007, 03:40 AM

And a final point - Beorn, your command of the Anglo-Saxon tongue is remarkable, so please read my quotations that you believe constitute a "flip-flop" with more meticulousness. They do not contradict each other.

One says a frame-up was not the primary purpose - that purpose being to kill a Seer.

The other refers to a frame-up, intentional or unintentional. Even if intentional, I'm certain it was not the primary intent.

I'm sure your grasp of philosophy is up to these elementary concepts, so I think you're attempting to twist my words for your own gain. Beware. On verbal subjects I am at my spikiest.

I do not suspect Volo, by the way, and, sad to say, increasingly have doubts about Durelin. I've taken her innocence too much for granted in the past. However, with such an excellent foe as Miss Beorn to hand I am most unlikely to vote for Durelin.

Durelin · 01-15-2007, 04:22 AM

Durelin · 01-15-2007, 05:44 AM

Okay, so I had a humongously long post and I just lost it all.

Screw it.

VOLO IS A WOLF.

Ang is innocent.

I didn't get a dream on Night 1.
I dreamt of Nogrod on Night 2.
I dreamt of Ang on Night 3.
Volo Night 4.

I knew he was a Wolf...wish I had seriously gone after him sooner. I might be dead by now, though, if I had.

I think Menel and Valier are his fellow wolves.

Read over Volo's and their posts now, if you can, knowing he is a Wolf.

Sorry for letting you innocent guys waste time, but I had a myriad of possible plans for toDay, which I had outlined in detail but now lost... Basically, I hoped we could somehow get a Wolf toDay, and then I'd somehow survive the Night. I planned on dreaming of Valier.

Looking at everyone else, though, I actually become more certain that the trio is the most likely. I suppose Holby could fit in there, as I don't think Volo or Menel ever seriously went after her, but... And Menel's going after Rune could have been an attempt to distance himself from him.

I think Val's silence today except for her one supposed to look helpful but really more like an attempt to get the Seer to slip up or to out themselves is much more incriminating than Holby's silence.

The Menel and Volo connections sometimes seem too obvious to me, but hello...all three Wolves are still alive! And personally I think it's because of overthinking. Re-read some of my earlier stuff for more on that if you need to. Or just start reading over the likely three's posts...now there's a better idea.

Really Menel could even go toDay. His vote for Lommy, way before the deadline, really really bothers me. He doesn't even say he has to vote then. He just does.

I don't know...I've only gotten 3 hours of sleep.

So, Menel, Val, got anything for me? Will you guys finally turn on your Wolf pal? Perhaps you'd like to suggest Volo and I are totally in cahoots? Because we totally are. His attempt earlier toDay to get me lynched that went nowhere...yeah, total attempt to distance himself from me. Not that I've been going after him of and on for a couple days now...

Okay, so, be good...and I'll hopefully be back with more thoughts. Though most of my thoughts are already out there...

Nilpaurion Felagund · 01-15-2007, 05:49 AM

Okay, class is over. (That French exam was agonising to see . . . ) Here's the promised DAY 3 analysis--it's disappointing, though.

One can group the voters into three groups: the Kath bandwaggon, the duelists's votes, and . . . miscellaneous.

I think it's not a far-fetched to imagine a Wolf in each group.

Under the first group we have Durelin, Valier, and Lommy. To say something about the victim, Kath was a bit suspicious to begin with, but his biased analysis of Nogrod (qq.v. 213, 218) was the nail that cost the kingdom (or something like that).

Durelin's reason for voting (q.v. 219) was sound. GOING HOTLY AFTER SOMEONE WITHOUT CIRCUMSPECTION AT A CRITICAL PHASE OF THE GAME IS A BAD MOVE (a warning to all out there, even myself.) I see little to be suspicious of her at the moment.

Valier accepted the arguments set forth at face-value (q.v. 230.) Quite suspicious, and added to that she throws suspicion at me out of nowhere, alluding to my lack of sensible posts.

Lommy's vote lacks reasoning (I did try looking for one, but apparently she believed Boromir 'has good points, especially that one about Kath.' (q.v. 234) In the same post she answers Boro's suspicion of her. Interesting . . .

Also, she trusts a wolf-Menel to be able to reveal himself easier. Perhaps, it can be read to mean that if Menel is lynched and turns out to be furry, she can get credit for it. Hmmm . . .

Next, the 'duel'-voters:

Menel's reason to vote for Rune (q.v. 207) is rather feeble, and it has been even more weakened due to Nogrod's innocence, yet he holds on to it toDAY until Durelin tells him that his analysis of Lommy makes more sense--see 277 then read on to the bottom of the page.

Whoa.

Ang posted this gem (239) which made him suspicious of Nogrod. Although he ended up wrong, he seems to think of nothing but the good of this village. (All hail the King under the Mountain!)

Nilp: I still think Volo is fanged. But hey, I'm expanding my horizons.

Now, the others. (Sorry.)

Holby seized on Lommy's strange vote for Eomer back in DAY 1. (q.v. 233)

Rune's casus voting (q.v. 238) makes me scratch my head. And a bit uneasy . . .

Volo didn't vote. Maybe his furry friends lectured him not to vote rashly.

Now, what have I learned from this? Lommy and Menel feels hairy, but if they are two of the Wolves I find their tactic strange. They're trying to get each other killed! Then again, a wolf-Menel back in WWIX did the same thing with Shelob, and they won that game with their numbers intact. (A little history; it makes Menel look all the more dangerous to me.)

Who could the third Wolf be? Rune? Valier? Volo?!

Nilpaurion Felagund · 01-15-2007, 05:53 AM

Haha, I was right! Curse you, fiend! Eat whatever form of execution we can scrounge up!

++Volo

Thinlómien · 01-15-2007, 06:15 AM

I can't believe this! I was so convinced of Ang's guilt. Holy cow. I don't honestly know what to think.

Well, I'll believe Durelin, I think. Of course she might be a wolf, but I don't think it very probable. And if she was one, we'd know it tomorrow, and we wouldn't be even doomed yet.

Uh-oh. I stand corrected about Ang... I'm just baffled. He was so guilty-ish. Well, I guess I must apologise for a rather fierce attack...

Volo a wolf... Well, that's news. No offense, but he's clearly outdone his ancestors both in deception and in making good points by far.

++VOLO

Good work Volo, I'm glad we had Durelin. Well done, Durelin, catching a wolf. Our situation looks better now.

I find it still so diffcult to understand Ang's not guilty... How could I have been this wrong?!?

I mean, it was not generally being wrong, but being convinced and wrong...

Now that Rune has been released of my very faint seer-suspicions I will be focusing in him more than before...

Huh, Ang, you can be quite convincing wolf as an innocent...

Anguirel · 01-15-2007, 06:16 AM

Blast, blast, blast.

While delivering pink slips to naughty boys as an errand for my Headmaster (don't ask) it occurred to me that Durelin's trust in me probably had a deeper motive than mere suspiciously friendliness. I returned too late.

My apologies, stalwart Orilin, for doubting you. If we could double-lynch I would vote for another suspect and try to bag two wolves, but as it is, I'll get the vote out of the way...

++VOLOIN

I don't believe I let myself get convinced by his "I'm Lestrade" garbage. I was caught because my metaphor was flattered. I also thought his assault on me was too earnestly wrong to be lupine. How mistaken I was.

I think, agonising as it is to read Beorn's reservoir of vitriol, there may be evidence inside it that help us decide about her. And all Voloin's actions should clearly be examined anew.

I'm sorry to have failed you, great Seer; we shall ensure you have a fine burial tomorrow morning...

Anguirel · 01-15-2007, 06:19 AM

Beorn, in the event of your innocence, I have some rather patronising advice for you.

Always consider the eventuality of your being wrong...

Nilpaurion Felagund · 01-15-2007, 06:23 AM

This Seer revelation comes at a price.

Not only is our Seer's fate sealed, we shall have a lack of insightful voting analysis tomorrow. But I guess it's a price to pay for a bigger chance to save this vilage.

What I want to say is: you may vote for the right person, but for the wrong reason. I'll be watching what you say--or fail to say--in your votes.

I should have dinner now. Felagund, out.

01-15-2007, 03:25 AM	#1
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	It's fortunate that I think you a wolf, because a schism between two innocents as loud as us would be a terrible misfortune... __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso

01-15-2007, 03:32 AM	#2
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	I wish to make another of my astonishingly accurate predictions. Beorn will shortly produce a painfully long "analysis" of everything I've written, in which every joke, insult, defence or attack will be construed as commands to secret accomplices, in which hairs will be split (ho ho) to produce accusations of inconsistency, and whose conclusions I could probably write now, in my sleep. The rest of the day will then consist in obsessing about whether or not I am guilty. I won't bother to defend myself. An innocent, though quite probably not me, will be hanged in the general confusion. It would be very nice if for once my prediction didn't come true. I really wish I were a wolf, because if so I would currently have an ego five times larger than phantom's. But I regretfully insist that that is not the case. __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso

01-15-2007, 03:40 AM	#3
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	And a final point - Beorn, your command of the Anglo-Saxon tongue is remarkable, so please read my quotations that you believe constitute a "flip-flop" with more meticulousness. They do not contradict each other. One says a frame-up was not the primary purpose - that purpose being to kill a Seer. The other refers to a frame-up, intentional or unintentional. Even if intentional, I'm certain it was not the primary intent. I'm sure your grasp of philosophy is up to these elementary concepts, so I think you're attempting to twist my words for your own gain. Beware. On verbal subjects I am at my spikiest. I do not suspect Volo, by the way, and, sad to say, increasingly have doubts about Durelin. I've taken her innocence too much for granted in the past. However, with such an excellent foe as Miss Beorn to hand I am most unlikely to vote for Durelin. __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso

01-15-2007, 05:49 AM	#6
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	DAY 3 analysis. Okay, class is over. (That French exam was agonising to see . . . ) Here's the promised DAY 3 analysis--it's disappointing, though. One can group the voters into three groups: the Kath bandwaggon, the duelists's votes, and . . . miscellaneous. I think it's not a far-fetched to imagine a Wolf in each group. Under the first group we have Durelin, Valier, and Lommy. To say something about the victim, Kath was a bit suspicious to begin with, but his biased analysis of Nogrod (qq.v. 213, 218) was the nail that cost the kingdom (or something like that). Durelin's reason for voting (q.v. 219) was sound. GOING HOTLY AFTER SOMEONE WITHOUT CIRCUMSPECTION AT A CRITICAL PHASE OF THE GAME IS A BAD MOVE (a warning to all out there, even myself.) I see little to be suspicious of her at the moment. Valier accepted the arguments set forth at face-value (q.v. 230.) Quite suspicious, and added to that she throws suspicion at me out of nowhere, alluding to my lack of sensible posts. Lommy's vote lacks reasoning (I did try looking for one, but apparently she believed Boromir 'has good points, especially that one about Kath.' (q.v. 234) In the same post she answers Boro's suspicion of her. Interesting . . . Also, she trusts a wolf-Menel to be able to reveal himself easier. Perhaps, it can be read to mean that if Menel is lynched and turns out to be furry, she can get credit for it. Hmmm . . . Next, the 'duel'-voters: Menel's reason to vote for Rune (q.v. 207) is rather feeble, and it has been even more weakened due to Nogrod's innocence, yet he holds on to it toDAY until Durelin tells him that his analysis of Lommy makes more sense--see 277 then read on to the bottom of the page. Whoa. Ang posted this gem (239) which made him suspicious of Nogrod. Although he ended up wrong, he seems to think of nothing but the good of this village. (All hail the King under the Mountain!) Nilp: I still think Volo is fanged. But hey, I'm expanding my horizons. Now, the others. (Sorry.) Holby seized on Lommy's strange vote for Eomer back in DAY 1. (q.v. 233) Rune's casus voting (q.v. 238) makes me scratch my head. And a bit uneasy . . . Volo didn't vote. Maybe his furry friends lectured him not to vote rashly. Now, what have I learned from this? Lommy and Menel feels hairy, but if they are two of the Wolves I find their tactic strange. They're trying to get each other killed! Then again, a wolf-Menel back in WWIX did the same thing with Shelob, and they won that game with their numbers intact. (A little history; it makes Menel look all the more dangerous to me.) Who could the third Wolf be? Rune? Valier? Volo?! __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good... Last edited by Nilpaurion Felagund; 01-15-2007 at 05:59 AM. Reason: correcting wrongs

01-15-2007, 05:53 AM	#7
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	Interesting cross-post. Haha, I was right! Curse you, fiend! Eat whatever form of execution we can scrounge up! ++Volo __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...

01-15-2007, 04:22 AM	#4
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063

01-15-2007, 05:44 AM	#5
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	Okay, so I had a humongously long post and I just lost it all. Screw it. VOLO IS A WOLF. Ang is innocent. I didn't get a dream on Night 1. I dreamt of Nogrod on Night 2. I dreamt of Ang on Night 3. Volo Night 4. I knew he was a Wolf...wish I had seriously gone after him sooner. I might be dead by now, though, if I had. I think Menel and Valier are his fellow wolves. Read over Volo's and their posts now, if you can, knowing he is a Wolf. Sorry for letting you innocent guys waste time, but I had a myriad of possible plans for toDay, which I had outlined in detail but now lost... Basically, I hoped we could somehow get a Wolf toDay, and then I'd somehow survive the Night. I planned on dreaming of Valier. Looking at everyone else, though, I actually become more certain that the trio is the most likely. I suppose Holby could fit in there, as I don't think Volo or Menel ever seriously went after her, but... And Menel's going after Rune could have been an attempt to distance himself from him. I think Val's silence today except for her one supposed to look helpful but really more like an attempt to get the Seer to slip up or to out themselves is much more incriminating than Holby's silence. The Menel and Volo connections sometimes seem too obvious to me, but hello...all three Wolves are still alive! And personally I think it's because of overthinking. Re-read some of my earlier stuff for more on that if you need to. Or just start reading over the likely three's posts...now there's a better idea. Really Menel could even go toDay. His vote for Lommy, way before the deadline, really really bothers me. He doesn't even say he has to vote then. He just does. I don't know...I've only gotten 3 hours of sleep. So, Menel, Val, got anything for me? Will you guys finally turn on your Wolf pal? Perhaps you'd like to suggest Volo and I are totally in cahoots? Because we totally are. His attempt earlier toDay to get me lynched that went nowhere...yeah, total attempt to distance himself from me. Not that I've been going after him of and on for a couple days now... Okay, so, be good...and I'll hopefully be back with more thoughts. Though most of my thoughts are already out there...

01-15-2007, 06:15 AM	#8
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	I can't believe this! I was so convinced of Ang's guilt. Holy cow. I don't honestly know what to think. Well, I'll believe Durelin, I think. Of course she might be a wolf, but I don't think it very probable. And if she was one, we'd know it tomorrow, and we wouldn't be even doomed yet. Uh-oh. I stand corrected about Ang... I'm just baffled. He was so guilty-ish. Well, I guess I must apologise for a rather fierce attack... Volo a wolf... Well, that's news. No offense, but he's clearly outdone his ancestors both in deception and in making good points by far. ++VOLO Good work Volo, I'm glad we had Durelin. Well done, Durelin, catching a wolf. Our situation looks better now. I find it still so diffcult to understand Ang's not guilty... How could I have been this wrong?!? I mean, it was not generally being wrong, but being convinced and wrong... Now that Rune has been released of my very faint seer-suspicions I will be focusing in him more than before... Huh, Ang, you can be quite convincing wolf as an innocent... __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

01-15-2007, 06:16 AM	#9
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	Blast, blast, blast. While delivering pink slips to naughty boys as an errand for my Headmaster (don't ask) it occurred to me that Durelin's trust in me probably had a deeper motive than mere suspiciously friendliness. I returned too late. My apologies, stalwart Orilin, for doubting you. If we could double-lynch I would vote for another suspect and try to bag two wolves, but as it is, I'll get the vote out of the way... ++VOLOIN I don't believe I let myself get convinced by his "I'm Lestrade" garbage. I was caught because my metaphor was flattered. I also thought his assault on me was too earnestly wrong to be lupine. How mistaken I was. I think, agonising as it is to read Beorn's reservoir of vitriol, there may be evidence inside it that help us decide about her. And all Voloin's actions should clearly be examined anew. I'm sorry to have failed you, great Seer; we shall ensure you have a fine burial tomorrow morning... __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso

01-15-2007, 06:19 AM	#10
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	Beorn, in the event of your innocence, I have some rather patronising advice for you. Always consider the eventuality of your being wrong... __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso

01-15-2007, 06:23 AM	#11
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	A reminder. This Seer revelation comes at a price. Not only is our Seer's fate sealed, we shall have a lack of insightful voting analysis tomorrow. But I guess it's a price to pay for a bigger chance to save this vilage. What I want to say is: you may vote for the right person, but for the wrong reason. I'll be watching what you say--or fail to say--in your votes. I should have dinner now. Felagund, out. __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...

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