WW XXIX Dor-en-Gaur

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

There is obviously confusion about the roles. It seems as though there is a villager with a free kill, sort of like a good Werebear; but I have been presuming there is a Seer too.

[Mithalwen]

Yes Lommy .. I just got distracted by something you said about Lalwende and have been checking it out.


I had a impression that we hadn't heard much from her and yet I looked at the lists and saw she had posted a lot. Then I checked out her posts and they are not insubstantial as such but not actually giving anything of herself away. So much vote monitoring that I had to check her role to make sure she wasn't a pollster or statistician. Her earlier posts are all comments on others' opinions it seems rather than her own. In other places, seeming super helpful people have turned out to be wolves making their presence felt wihtout giving anything away.

This ringing major alarm bells and she is now my prime suspect. I should be around later almost to the end so I don't have to vote now .. want to do more reading and obviously Lalwende should be around more later...

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

This ringing major alarm bells and she is now my prime suspect. I should be around later almost to the end so I don't have to vote now .. want to do more reading and obviously Lalwende should be around more later...

I have been here all along my dear.

I was adding up votes because I was getting very excited about being in my first really big game, and I'm one of those sad saps who stays up on election nights watching the incoming results and the Swingometer (with lots of beer, like it's a sport...). Psephology. The horrible thing is, I've been getting worried that someone would start suspecting me because of butting in to Mac's 'thing' on the last 'Day' with the stats and now he's dead! I'm in two minds now about posting the (clumsy) analyses of the odds that I'd figured out this morning

Or, is this a turnaround strategy from Mithalwen after I mentioned late on Day One that her vociferous support of Boro was very noticeable? Now I did suspect that something was very fishy indeed about this. It was so upfront that it went beyond bluffing. I suspected that Mithalwen could have been one of the Rangers at first, defending Boro (which made me feel at ease last Night because I'm still not onboard with that anti-Boro bandwagon), but now I am beginning to think that Mithalwen may be some kind of Cobbler? That would not necessarily mean Boro was a Wolf, but Mithalwen might think he is?

Now I'm seriously confused. I might go and get my marmalade sandwich and ponder some more.

[Mithalwen]

[QUOTE=Lalwendë]I, is this a turnaround strategy from Mithalwen after I mentioned late on Day One that her vociferous support of Boro was very noticeable? Now I did suspect that something was very fishy indeed about this. It was so upfront that it went beyond bluffing. I suspected that Mithalwen could have been one of the Rangers at first, defending Boro (which made me feel at ease last Night because I'm still not onboard with that anti-Boro bandwagon), but now I am beginning to think that Mithalwen may be some kind of Cobbler? That would not necessarily mean Boro was a Wolf, but Mithalwen might think he is?
QUOTE]
This makes no sense to me.
What do you mean about the rangers? They defend at night not during the day! It would make sense if you thought I were a Seer....

It wasn't a bluff but it was a sincere belief based on experience rather than empirical fact.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If the wolves presumed there was a Seer it is worth noting that they took out two Gil-Galad voters. Macalaure also went after Rune strongly at the start but then cooled off towards the end of the day.

If they just went for them because they are clever and were making sense then it doesn't tell us much.

I'm surprised Roa wasn't protected: she seemed to have gained trust very early on.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

If the wolves presumed there was a Seer ....I'm surprised Roa wasn't protected: she seemed to have gained trust very early on.

I am suprised Roa wasn't protected too .. unless the Rangers cannot protect against this golden dagger bod.... it GDB is a (currently misguided avenging angel rataher than the hunter)

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm surprised Roa wasn't protected: she seemed to have gained trust very early on.

The only explanation I can come up with it is that all the rangers wanted to spread the protection and everyone assumed someone else was protecting Roa...

Why do you think the wolves would think there was a seer? I think Nogrod quite clearly hinted that there was to be no seer, and if you think it from the mod's point of view, wouldn't the villagers be too overpowered with a seer and three rangers?

edit: xed with Mith x2

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Where did Nogrod hint that? Without a Seer there's practically nothing to go on.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Where did Nogrod hint that? Without a Seer there's practically nothing to go on.

I think it was when he was discussing the ideas for the game.... way back..

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Wolves don't know that for sure, though. So perhaps they were going for a possible Seer. Maybe a long-shot.

[Mithalwen]

Well yes because whatever the role of GDB, there are 2 other gifted we have no clues on... or do we...

[Mithalwen]

Of course with 3 rangers the wolves may have gone for "people they would like out of the way but weren't yet conspicuous enough for protection".. that makes the choices more logical ....

I guess if a/the rangers trusted Boro they might have protected him since a hunter kill at this stage is more likely to be wrong and unwittingly help the wolves.

And on the subject of Boro I did wonder if I might inadvertantly have given the impression that I knew for certain about his innocence when I defended him... my actions were based on instinct not fact.....

[Kath]

Why do you think the wolves would think there was a seer? I think Nogrod quite clearly hinted that there was to be no seer, and if you think it from the mod's point of view, wouldn't the villagers be too overpowered with a seer and three rangers?

It's possible that the inclusion of whatever this role is where someone has, as you say Lommy, 'a license to kill' might even that out, as with both Hunter and apparently this one there is always the chance of killing an innocent villager. We know there are three Rangers and three 'others'. Boro is telling us one of those 'other' roles is a Hunter, another is the one with the golden dagger ... what's the third? Do we have any clues from the narration? Since it doesn't appear that we do we can only speculate, but there is nothing to say that we don't have a Seer either. Would certainly be helpful!

I don't have a huge amount of time right now so I'm going to give my opinions on the villagers and then hop off. I will be back later and will be around for the end of the Day so I'll not vote yet.

Lommy - is floodposting with such glee that I don't think she can be a wolf. If she were I get the feeling that she would be more careful over what she was saying and so post far less frequently.

Rune

Boro - well we have his assurances that he is the Hunter. No one else has come forth to deny this and it is a role that benefits the village more from being out in the open, so I am going to believe him.

Mith - feels innocent to me. There is none of the over-defensiveness or mild panicking that usually accompanies her posts when she is anything but an ordo. Also, if she had any role I don't believe she would be so confused over all the others.

Lal - I think is still finding her feet. She was overly defensive at first but she has been coming up with her own theories and has been quite decisive. If Lal was a wolf this would be her first time and I don't believe she would be so confident.

Farael - seems to be playing in his usual style. Slight problem there as his usual style is the same whether he's innocent or guilty. He almost feels less agressive than usual though, so perhaps he is doing what I thought Lommy might if she were a wolf and is playing it slightly safe. I'll look back at him later.

morm - I love this new playing style! I don't suspect him at all at the moment, but that's actually because I feel to have barely heard from him, which is not something I am used to with him. When I come back I'll look through the thread to make sure that's just a feeling and not actually the truth.

Gil - ah Gil, it has been a while since I've played with him and he does seem amazingly more into the game than I recall. It makes me really not want to lynch him, but it also makes me quite suspicious. I can believe that he has a role, I don't know which side it's for.

These are the people I can't get a handle on at the moment:
Durelin
Rikae
Eomer
Ang

So, when I return, I will take a good look at those four as well as morm and Farael, and probably Gil.

EDIT: Cross-posted with about half a page of people.