WW XXIX Dor-en-Gaur

[Anguirel]

Rikae, while I still think this is a side issue, the villager with the quill and the villager with the dagger were definitely different people in the narration.

If you ask me, we have:

Hunter of some kind, involving a list -voila, Boro
Knife-wielding maniac, may or may not have just one kill
And a Cobbleresque nasty, who I personally suspect is Thinlomien, purely because she keeps talking about these issues and leaving less time for wolf-hunting.

Why I'm bothering with this is to emphasise my conviction that we have no Seer, Weaver or information gathering role. We really are on our own, I think, boys and girls.

Now to the votes...

[Rikae]

OK, I went back and reread the narration and you're right, Ang.
Wishful thinking on my part, I guess.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

As such I do not have any great theory. . .so everything is as it normaly is, but after a lot of reading and dividing people in to groups I have come up with some names of people that makes me un-easy.

Durelin
Mithlawen
Gil-Galad

Durelin: Has seemed very eager to throw accusations around and at times pursuing a cause, even if it is the smallest of things. I am of course talking about when she got very caught up about Rikae's appology. It is alright that she felt that it was weird and started to think about it, but she pursued it as if it was a thing that would naturally reveal a wolf. I have always found "clinging to straws" to be very suspicouse and that is what I think Durelin did in this case, it has to be mentioned that there were more to her case, but she seemed to forget about that as soon as Rikae tried to explain her self.

Mithlawen: Is a person I have hughe doubts about, she is on my "feel good list" but I have no explaination for it. Reading through her posts has not provided me with an answer, in fact she has often left me confused after reading one of her posts. The one thing that speaks for her innocens in my view is her confusion over the roles, it was very convinsing and did not seem like an act from a wolf.

Gil-Galad: It is as I said before: Gil seemed like he wanted to survive, although his latest post was kind of weird. Anyways, before that post he has acted somewhat different from the innocent Gil that I have expirienced before. It is not much of a case, but enought for me to consider voting for him.

oh yeah and then there is Firefoot I really don't have a case at all against her, I just get a weird feel when reading over her posts. I suppose it is her case against Rikae, I don't really agree with most of what she says and that might me un-easy about her. She is however not likely to attract my vote today, as I feel a lot stronger about the others and this is just a small "weirdness"

[Boromir88]

For today, Lalwende, Anguirel, and mormegil all look pretty innocent to me. And I see no reason to vote for one of them. I feel pretty safe about Eomer so far as well.

I am particularly suspicious of Mithalwen and Firefoot who have been pretty quick to butter-up to me. Firefoot wanted me lynched, than suddenly changed and unconditionally accepted me as the hunter. Kind of odd, it came off to me as 'Oh you're the hunter. I'm sorry, time to change.' I would hope all the innocents can trust me, but I know that's virtually going to be impossible until some sort of proof can be provided. Therefore, those who are willing to trust me and yet approach with a bit of cautiousness (Lal, Rikae, anyone else I've missed?) Seem to me to be innocent.

Mithalwen I think looks worse than Firefoot, I really can't explain this outright staunch defense of me. It would be a bad thing for me to be lynched, but she was staunchly at my side even before I revealed I was the hunter. Looks like a wolf that's trying to get connected to an innocent. I believe it was Ang who said that Mith brought in this 'air of freshness.' One which at the time I agreed with, but that 'air of freshness' can be a dangerous weapon for a wolf; who can look fair but really be foul.

I'll be back to weigh in on everyone else (as I've kind of left those that I don't understand at this point). I will say Thinlo, there's no more need for us to dwell on the golden dagger, let us do our job, hopefully it will be good...if not than we have failed. But in the mean time let's do the job at hand, which is lynch wolves.

edit: x-posted with morm and Rune

[Lalwendë]

As the day has progressed I've found I'm now looking at Farael, Firefoot, Gil, Mithalwen and Mormegil. That Gil voted for Farael only adds to my suspicions as that would be a perfect cover-up following my ruminations. Plus I'm getting much more trust in what Boro says and he was the one laid out by Gil originally. Gil also went after Mac right at the beginning which adds up.


Perhaps the reason Farael went after Lommy is because either he or Lommy is one of those who simply cannot be a baddie - not all of the people I've identified as suspicious can be baddies, statistically speaking. Or perhaps the plot really is that baroque and it is indeed a smokescreen to hide them being in cahoots? I have the feeling that one of them might cop for it from the village because this is all so fishy.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Even though it seems like there would be a greater chance of getting Mith lynched than any other of my "suspects", I still find Durelin more suspicouse and will vote for her.

I will leave in 20 min. and not able to change my vote after that time, so unless something comes up that is how my vote will stay.

++Durelin

[Kath]

Huh, turns out I missed Firefoot off my list of villagers earlier, so my apologies to her. She's on the 'can't get a feel on her' part of the list so I'll be taking a look at her too.

These aren't going to be in depth analyses by the way. I've decided to take a break from doing those because I'm doing far too many of them in RL!

Durelin
Nonsensical first post. Suspicion of Firefoot and Gil, think Volo and Boro innocent. Votes Gil even though she seems more suspicious of Gil. Refuses to protect Boro by lynching Volo since she's not suspicious of him, principles are good I guess. Now seems to be developing some suspicion of Volo, and thinks Rikae and Firefoot are wolves - no reason though.

Rikae
No actual decision over roles of either Mac or Lommy. Bit odd for a first post, most people just shout a suspicion and go. Talks a lot about the roles, but so did everyone at the time. Nothing very concrete, and seems to contradict herself a bit. Could be wolvish nerves showing through. Seems to have calmed down a bit, answering accusation with reason. Thinks Ang suspicious for jumping on the Boro-Cel argument, but then she did it too. Changes vote from Ang to Volo at the last minute as a revenge vote I think. It's sort of a fair point, no one likes to be insulted, but it isn't a great basis for a vote.

Eomer
Says very little. Mentions people as having good thoughts but immediately refutes any idea of trust. Looks at the theories of others, wants Volo lynched. I'm inclined to think this innocent as this is the way he normally plays. Suspicion of Firefoot for much the same reasons as I have. Wants Mac lynched (reasons?!?) and Boro to stay alive. Some mild defence of Volo, quite a flip flop there. Votes Volo (again flips, though apparently this is to protect Boro) and suspects Firefoot and Lommy (not sure where the latter suspicion came from).

Ang
Thinks Boro innocent with reason. Again says Boro is innocent, why keep reiterating it? Talks about what others think, not many original ideas. And again defends Boro. Jumps on Volo for being suspicious, but then, he was. Some ideas coming through now, and votes Volo for what at the time seemed good reason. Tries to get Gil and Firefoot to change their votes (he really was convinced of Boro's innocence, even before the revelation) and says if he can't get Volo lynched he'll move to Mac. Not a fan of that as if you vote for someone you should really believe them guilty and not be so happy to switch. Mentions morm is a little quieter and more bloodthirsty than usual. Guess I wasn't the only one to think so. Looks for Eomer's advice. Thought to change from Volo to Mac but would only do it if Eomer did. Why the 'trust' in Eomer? Considers that Volo and Mac are both wolvish and tries to rat Mac out by getting people to vote Volo. Wrong on both accounts in the end but it was a fair theory. Wandering about all over the place - lynch or no lynch. Actually pretty innocent behaviour. Changes from Volo to Gil after Firefoot votes Volo - bit suspicious as Volo's fate was pretty much sealed by Firefoot so changing meant there was still a good chance Volo would be lynched even if he changed.

Firefoot
First poster though that needn't mean anything. Mentioned Lommy and Mac but that's probably just random Day 1 suspicion. Bit defensive actually, demanding that no one trust anyone. Yes fair point, but the style feels off. Suspicion of Gil and Boro and votes Boro for his words being too 'set up'. I think she's giving Boro too little credit, or trying to set him up herself. Changes from Boro to Volo, says she's not doing this to jump on the bandwagon, but she is so that makes no sense. Tones down the defensiveness and suspects Farael a bit, but makes some very odd points about the Hunter. Says it would be silly for the wolves to leave the Hunter alive, whereas to me it would seem silly if they didn't. If Boro can take a wolf out if they try to kill him they're probably not about to try.

Rune <-- turns out I forgot him too, doing well toDay.
Mentions Mac and Gil. Mention of Mac odd as just carrying on from what others said. Role talk but as I said before, pretty normal right then. Not defensive, answers anything thrown at him calmly. Pretty pessimistic too. In fact he is very calm, is this normal behaviour for Rune? I can't recall. He strikes me as someone who would react more. Is this indicative of some kind of role? Suddenly goes defensive but I think almost out of defeat than anything else as he didn't want to suspect Mac and now, apparently, he must. Some suspicion of Farael for being 'sure', but Farael always is. Votes Mac though there's not much of a reason.

Well, from that I think Durelin and Ang are probably innocent. I was forcing myself to find suspicious things in Ang's posts and though I found some things that probably could be wolvish I don't think he is. Firefoot and Eomer I'm finding quite suspicious as they don't really have reasons for a lot of things which from Firefoot especially does look odd. Rune and Rikae flip flop so much I'm not sure what to make of them.

I'll wait a while on voting. I want to see more of what everyone says, and I still want to keep an eye on morm for a bit. He isn't hitting my radar and it's worrying me.

[Kath]

Actually no I am going to vote just in case.

++ FIREFOOT

For being overly defensive and switching when that was mentioned, and for the bandwagon thing mostly. Basically what I said in the other post.

[Mithalwen]

Well it is kind of flattering to be suspected .... and Boro ... next time I won't bother to defend you and you can getted lynched as an innocent Day one again.... If I were a wolf I would have been only too pleased to get rid of you - and you and Morm would have been lucky to survive the night.

I felt, on the basis of other situations that you were innocent and tried to stop and innocent getting killd ... so lynch me but I am not a wolf ... if I were I would have played like Volo or Lalwende ..... ie wild or uber cautious.

Anyway I am going to catch up.

But I want to see if there are any clues to what circumstances let the the surviving rangers PM. That would be a help ...I don't suppose the loss of Naria would be enough.

[Lalwendë]

Time for the scores on the doors:

Farael -> Lommy (Lommy 1)
Durelin -> Rikae (Lommy 1, Rikae 1)
Gil-galad -> Farael (Lommy 1, Rikae 1, Farael 1)
Rikae -> Mormegil (Lommy 1, Rikae 1, Farael 1, Morm 1)
Rune -> Durelin (Lommy 1, Rikae 1, Farael 1, Morm 1, Durelin 1)
Kath -> Firefoot (Lommy 1, Rikae 1, Farael 1, Morm 1, Durelin 1, Firefoot 1)

With votes still to come from: Lommy, Boro, Mith, Ang, Morm, Eomer, Me.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

This makes no sense to me.
What do you mean about the rangers? They defend at night not during the day! It would make sense if you thought I were a Seer....

Wouldn't a ranger defend during the day someone that they were going to defend in the night? Sorry if I've not grasped the concept of that yet, but I'd have thought that's what would happen? Or am I getting Rangers mixed up with Cobblers? I don't know.

It was a very noticeable defence though. Yes someone may defend based on pure gut feelings/experience but one thing I have noticed is that a vociferous defence never goes unheeded - Boro and Mac already picked up on some quite mild defences I staged early on.

There's just something about that Volo campaign...

[Anguirel]

My friend is dragging me off to a talk on the underworld in Malta, or something of the kind, so I will vote early, probably sevenish.

I intend to examine the motives behind every vote cast yesterday.

1. morm for Rune
I did find this odd behaviour, even by morm's standards. He claimed it was business as usual, which it isn't, really. But I'm not seriously nettled by this impetuosity. Days have to start somewhere.

2. Gil for Boro
Based on Boro's suspicion, apparently in earnest, for Celuien. A wilful vote at an early stage, but not out of the ordinary for Gil.

3. Roa for Gil
A simple riposte.

4. Lommy for Durelin
Because of the latter's "nonsense". They've formed something of an alliance since.

5. Firefoot for Boro
Made Boro's lynching a real possibility. Her other candidate was Gil - who had voted for Boro! Seems lackadaisical, or maybe sinister. Divide and rule?

6. Rikae for Anguirel
Rather an inconspicuous vote, I suppose. Nothing much else against it, though she was quick to judge...

7. Kath for Boro
I say this with regret, as she's just posted very sensibly, I think, but this was a dangerous-looking vote, tearing Boro far into the lead. I would be very surprised if Kath and Firefoot were both wolves, but one might very well be.

8. Celuien for Naria
Pretty inconsequential now

9. Farael for Lommy
I forget who remarked that Farael was a parody of himself, but it was an astute comment. Kind of the opposite of morm, who claims to be deliberately pursuing an unusual strategy. His extension of his theory to Volo was bizarre and rather fickle. I think we may have the Cobbler-Thingy here.

10. Volo for Durelin
Based, I think, on quietness.

11. Rune for Mac
Revenge vote which made Mac drop his case. I don't think a wolf-Rune would have wanted to kill Mac soon after winning him over, but that may be a dangerous assumption.

12. Anguirel for Volo
An ill-thought out act. When faced with action or patience, I am inclined to choose the former (see later...). I think I allowed myself to be caught in a duel here.

13. Farael for Volo
As I said before, pretty strange, almost hyperactive.

14. Lalwende for Gil
Interesting that this was to spark a second bandwagon. I think Lal probably thought of it as something of a throwaway vote, as the Volo/Boro war was starting to be on the cards. I am vaguely suspicious of Lal.

15. Mac for Celuien
I'm going to start passing over the votes of the dead, actually.

16. Eomer for Volo
Helps Boro (who no one yet knew was a Hunter). Has similar forebodings to me about doing so, which was why I was interested in his thought-processes. With hindsight, this vote seals the two-horse race, and so is a bit worrying.

17. morm for Volo
Looks like genuine suspicion here to me, actually.

Some dead votes and then Boro revealed himself. The trend veered relentlessly towards Volo thereafter:

21. Boro for Volo
Self-preservation.

22. Mith for Volo
After sort of asking for my go-ahead. I consented, since I was in crackpot theory mode. I don't suspect Mith yet.

23. Durelin for Gil
Sort of a "rugged individualist declares the herd wrong" vote. She picked a quite credible bandwagon, though. She wanted Gil, not Volo dead with apparent genuineness. I just can't see how Gil looked more wolfish than Volo. Much of a muchness.

24. Firefoot for Volo
The big flip-flop! This is suspicious, especially if she suspected Gil would overtake on the inside. But might an innocent Firefoot have done this too - to save a Hunter? Changing her vote was laudable. And she could have placed it more suspiciously. I find this vote less bad than her first foray.

25. Anguirel for Gil
I made a fool of myself, not for the first or last time. I was expecting Mith to join me. I decided to do this by tossing a coin. I was so uncertain increasingly about Volo's guilt. But to be honest I didn't think much of the rival case for Gil either.

26. Rikae for Volo
Honour affronted, fair enough. How many wolves would slip onto the winning bandwagon? The answer, as ever, bold ones. Zzzz. A bit suspect.

I suspect on these bases Durelin, Firefoot, Kath and Eomer to an extent. Urgh.

[Anguirel]

I don't actually think that achieved much. If I survive, I won't repeat that technique exactly. So many blasted votes...

A provisionary one of my own - ++DURELIN.

People are behaving as if her Auguring actually worked! Villager after villager is muttering "Well, I didn't suspect Anguirel much, but if Durelin says so, then...", even though her agreement was just a casual endorsement of Lommy's theory.

Debellare suberbos et parcere subiectos. Durelin is wielding quite a lots of influence and power at the moment, and I want to humble it.

I may consider voting Firefoot later if hanging her looks more feasible...

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Why I'm bothering with this is to emphasise my conviction that we have no Seer, Weaver or information gathering role. We really are on our own, I think, boys and girls.

I fully agree! To have a seer and three rangers would make it horribly lopsided. What I think is that the GDB was a triffle bit foolish making a kill last night. The way I understood the naration was that they get one kill and only one. Granted it wasn't explicitly stated but it was the impression I received when Nogrod said something like "The GDB decided to make his kill tonight." Maybe I'll go back and get he exact quote.

Most suspicious to me are:

Lommy
Rune
Rikae

[mormegil]

Due to meetings and the like (the day ends at 3PM my time so I'm still at work) I'm unsure if I'll be able to vote any later than now.

This has been tough because I really suspect all three equally and my vote could go either way

++Lommy

Seems the most strange to me.