WW XXIX Dor-en-Gaur

[Kath]

Actually no I am going to vote just in case.

++ FIREFOOT

For being overly defensive and switching when that was mentioned, and for the bandwagon thing mostly. Basically what I said in the other post.

[Mithalwen]

Well it is kind of flattering to be suspected .... and Boro ... next time I won't bother to defend you and you can getted lynched as an innocent Day one again.... If I were a wolf I would have been only too pleased to get rid of you - and you and Morm would have been lucky to survive the night.

I felt, on the basis of other situations that you were innocent and tried to stop and innocent getting killd ... so lynch me but I am not a wolf ... if I were I would have played like Volo or Lalwende ..... ie wild or uber cautious.

Anyway I am going to catch up.

But I want to see if there are any clues to what circumstances let the the surviving rangers PM. That would be a help ...I don't suppose the loss of Naria would be enough.

[Lalwendë]

Time for the scores on the doors:

Farael -> Lommy (Lommy 1)
Durelin -> Rikae (Lommy 1, Rikae 1)
Gil-galad -> Farael (Lommy 1, Rikae 1, Farael 1)
Rikae -> Mormegil (Lommy 1, Rikae 1, Farael 1, Morm 1)
Rune -> Durelin (Lommy 1, Rikae 1, Farael 1, Morm 1, Durelin 1)
Kath -> Firefoot (Lommy 1, Rikae 1, Farael 1, Morm 1, Durelin 1, Firefoot 1)

With votes still to come from: Lommy, Boro, Mith, Ang, Morm, Eomer, Me.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

This makes no sense to me.
What do you mean about the rangers? They defend at night not during the day! It would make sense if you thought I were a Seer....

Wouldn't a ranger defend during the day someone that they were going to defend in the night? Sorry if I've not grasped the concept of that yet, but I'd have thought that's what would happen? Or am I getting Rangers mixed up with Cobblers? I don't know.

It was a very noticeable defence though. Yes someone may defend based on pure gut feelings/experience but one thing I have noticed is that a vociferous defence never goes unheeded - Boro and Mac already picked up on some quite mild defences I staged early on.

There's just something about that Volo campaign...

[Farael]

I'm sorry guys, I must admit I'm putting a half-hearted effort into this village... I think I signed up to one werewolf too many, but Nogrod's game was too tempting to resist.

Anyway, I don't have much to add at this point in time, other than insisting on this:

Loomy talks a lot... but how much does she really say?

Look at how she's ALWAYS moderated her accusations (even joking with Morm that she was being wishy washy after he'd called someone else on being so). I know that's normal for her, but this time I think there's something fishy.

And Morm two out of the three times I've suspected someone right off the bat, I've been RIGHT not WRONG... When I think about it too much, THEN I'm wrong.

Oh, and Rikae I just don't like you (no, just kidding, but must you suspect me every game we play?)

[Boromir88]

Thinlo doesn't sit right with me. Most of her posts have been about hunters, roles, and stuff that we shouldn't dwell on for so long. Then there's something about these posts:

Durelin's been only chatty too, but I wouldn't like to lose her this early, as she is usually quite helpful when innocent. (Means I wouldn't like to vote a good player I don't even suspect because of her first post as I have a reason to assume there will be more posts from her...)~Post 49

Thanafter Lal's post in Post 51 (not even 20 minutes later):

++DURELIN

She posted only in-character nonsense in a phase that she could have commented something reasonable. That is slightly wolvish. Also, I hope that this vote serves as a discourager of nonsense-posting...

I'm aware that wasn't a very reasonable vote, but I had to vote someone.

Wanting to discourage nonsense posting? Rather quick change to go from, I'm willing to keep Durelin around, to I had to vote for someone. Especially when I take it as you found Kath to really be the most suspicious? Durelin would be a safe vote to make as well.

Edit: Mass x-post

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Thinlo doesn't sit right with me. Most of her posts have been about hunters, roles, and stuff that we shouldn't dwell on for so long.

Quite true...which is why I can't be sure if she or Farael is a Cobbleresque being. Roles and stuff aren't the usual subject matter for a wolf...or really for Thinlomien usually. I've usually seen her as a discreet villager or a cagey Gifted in the past...all this garrulity about the village's shiny trinketry in the way of Rangers and stuff takes me rather by surprise.

[Lalwendë]

Farael's last post has got me confused. I'm pondering this question of whether he and Lommy could be in cahoots (coupled with rather baroque defences) or if they are indeed on opposing sides (see my earlier reasoning that they cannot both be baddies). Now, Farael's post has gone that far that I cannot now see how they could possibly ever hope to pull off something quite that outrageous. So I'm back to square one in thinking that one of them may be bad, but both cannot be. I may well leave both of them well alone for tonight, despite Boro's good observation. Lommy wasn't on my list of five anyway, I'm getting ahead of myself I think. Farael will remain on that list but he's got me confused and I will have to shelve him for now, but with a weather eye open.

Looking again at the original cabal I suspected, Firefoot looks more suspicious to me. As Boro and Kath point out she was disturbingly quick to switch votes, and thanks to Anguirel's analysis I now see that she was originally 'wavering' between Gil and Boro and plumped for Boro (as Gil had). Was the sudden switch to Volo a 'cover-up'? Was it due to Boro's 'revelation'? Either way, something's up there. It's all linked to the list of five? I don't know. But it's linked to Gil and I can't shake that feeling I picked up yesterday that something was going on.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So Anguirel, sealing a two-horse race is suspicious, is it? But then, pushing Boromir further ahead in the votes would have been mightily suspicious. And voting for someone who already had 1 vote would have been suspicious on the grounds of starting up a three-horse race, right? Or maybe I should have thrown another name into the mix, because there's nothing suspicious about that!

I chose someone out of all the players who already had at least 1 vote. Volo looked the most suspicious to me; so what's wrong with what I did? It was, without question, the least suspicious thing I could have done.

Kath, the very accusation of me flip-flopping is downright ludicrous (nevermind that you said I did it twice). I found Volo suspicious; considered whether he was actually the best choice; and then decided to go with that original choice.

That's not a flip-flop.

As to my lack of contribution, we have so very little to go on, and basically all of it is flexible guesswork, that I feel no great need to speculate on loads of masterplans and conspiracies. I will try to 'feel out' wolf behaviour by studying posting behaviour. It could go either way. Just who do you think has contributed a lot?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Thinking about voting for Rune. He has come under a bit of suspicion but it's not that. Everyone can look suspicious at this stage (and indeed we all do in some ways). It's just, I feel like I could vote for anyone. I really want a fair reason to vote for someone, because it's not Day One anymore and we have certain decisions to discern the meaning of.

Roa is a famed player (as the intro showed) and it does not surprise me that the wolves were so eager to slay her swiftly.

Macalaure, meaning no disrespect ( ) has less of a 'fearsome opponent' reputation (though he is undoubtedly highly skilled, and pretty much everyone is less fearsome than Roa), and I get the feeling that he is the kill the wolves debated longest. He went after Rune strongly at the start of the day, but lessened his suspicion of him towards the end. It's possible that wolf-Rune yet feared Macalaure's prejudices and was happy to get this potential enemy out of his way. He could do this and no-one would really link Mac's death back to Rune.

Unless you've no idea who to vote for.

++RUNE

[Mithalwen]

[QUOTE=Lalwendë]

Wouldn't a ranger defend during the day someone that they were going to defend in the night? Sorry if I've not grasped the concept of that yet, but I'd have thought that's what would happen? Or am I getting Rangers mixed up with Cobblers? I don't know.

QUOTE]
Since rangering is the gifted role I have been relatively successful in I would say no. The point of being a ranger is to protect those you think the wolves will kill. Boromir would have been a low priority at that point if someone has attracted suspiscion the wolves will hope the villagers will do the job for them. Later when Boro declared himself as hunter there might have been a case for protecting him long enough to pick a good target. And with 3 rangers the added dynamic Lommy pointed out comes into play - not only do you have to second guess the wolves but second guess the other rangers.

[Anguirel]

Hmmm. I'm turning the idea of a Durelin, Kath, Eomer triumvirate round in my mind. It seems quite convincing as a party aiming to get at Firefoot this eve. All three have been responsible for incremental suspicion aimed at her.

But then I'm very wary of Firefoot as well...

[Anguirel]

My friend is dragging me off to a talk on the underworld in Malta, or something of the kind, so I will vote early, probably sevenish.

I intend to examine the motives behind every vote cast yesterday.

1. morm for Rune
I did find this odd behaviour, even by morm's standards. He claimed it was business as usual, which it isn't, really. But I'm not seriously nettled by this impetuosity. Days have to start somewhere.

2. Gil for Boro
Based on Boro's suspicion, apparently in earnest, for Celuien. A wilful vote at an early stage, but not out of the ordinary for Gil.

3. Roa for Gil
A simple riposte.

4. Lommy for Durelin
Because of the latter's "nonsense". They've formed something of an alliance since.

5. Firefoot for Boro
Made Boro's lynching a real possibility. Her other candidate was Gil - who had voted for Boro! Seems lackadaisical, or maybe sinister. Divide and rule?

6. Rikae for Anguirel
Rather an inconspicuous vote, I suppose. Nothing much else against it, though she was quick to judge...

7. Kath for Boro
I say this with regret, as she's just posted very sensibly, I think, but this was a dangerous-looking vote, tearing Boro far into the lead. I would be very surprised if Kath and Firefoot were both wolves, but one might very well be.

8. Celuien for Naria
Pretty inconsequential now

9. Farael for Lommy
I forget who remarked that Farael was a parody of himself, but it was an astute comment. Kind of the opposite of morm, who claims to be deliberately pursuing an unusual strategy. His extension of his theory to Volo was bizarre and rather fickle. I think we may have the Cobbler-Thingy here.

10. Volo for Durelin
Based, I think, on quietness.

11. Rune for Mac
Revenge vote which made Mac drop his case. I don't think a wolf-Rune would have wanted to kill Mac soon after winning him over, but that may be a dangerous assumption.

12. Anguirel for Volo
An ill-thought out act. When faced with action or patience, I am inclined to choose the former (see later...). I think I allowed myself to be caught in a duel here.

13. Farael for Volo
As I said before, pretty strange, almost hyperactive.

14. Lalwende for Gil
Interesting that this was to spark a second bandwagon. I think Lal probably thought of it as something of a throwaway vote, as the Volo/Boro war was starting to be on the cards. I am vaguely suspicious of Lal.

15. Mac for Celuien
I'm going to start passing over the votes of the dead, actually.

16. Eomer for Volo
Helps Boro (who no one yet knew was a Hunter). Has similar forebodings to me about doing so, which was why I was interested in his thought-processes. With hindsight, this vote seals the two-horse race, and so is a bit worrying.

17. morm for Volo
Looks like genuine suspicion here to me, actually.

Some dead votes and then Boro revealed himself. The trend veered relentlessly towards Volo thereafter:

21. Boro for Volo
Self-preservation.

22. Mith for Volo
After sort of asking for my go-ahead. I consented, since I was in crackpot theory mode. I don't suspect Mith yet.

23. Durelin for Gil
Sort of a "rugged individualist declares the herd wrong" vote. She picked a quite credible bandwagon, though. She wanted Gil, not Volo dead with apparent genuineness. I just can't see how Gil looked more wolfish than Volo. Much of a muchness.

24. Firefoot for Volo
The big flip-flop! This is suspicious, especially if she suspected Gil would overtake on the inside. But might an innocent Firefoot have done this too - to save a Hunter? Changing her vote was laudable. And she could have placed it more suspiciously. I find this vote less bad than her first foray.

25. Anguirel for Gil
I made a fool of myself, not for the first or last time. I was expecting Mith to join me. I decided to do this by tossing a coin. I was so uncertain increasingly about Volo's guilt. But to be honest I didn't think much of the rival case for Gil either.

26. Rikae for Volo
Honour affronted, fair enough. How many wolves would slip onto the winning bandwagon? The answer, as ever, bold ones. Zzzz. A bit suspect.

I suspect on these bases Durelin, Firefoot, Kath and Eomer to an extent. Urgh.

[Anguirel]

I don't actually think that achieved much. If I survive, I won't repeat that technique exactly. So many blasted votes...

A provisionary one of my own - ++DURELIN.

People are behaving as if her Auguring actually worked! Villager after villager is muttering "Well, I didn't suspect Anguirel much, but if Durelin says so, then...", even though her agreement was just a casual endorsement of Lommy's theory.

Debellare suberbos et parcere subiectos. Durelin is wielding quite a lots of influence and power at the moment, and I want to humble it.

I may consider voting Firefoot later if hanging her looks more feasible...