Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Roa_Aoife]

First, some replies that I didn't have time for at the end of yesterday.

Originally Posted by mith

Wolves will usually refrain from killing an ordinary innocent who is garnering suspicion since it indeed shields them and they aren't going to waste a night kill on someone who they have a chance of getting lynched. However I would be astonished is wolves let anyone they suspected of being a gifted survive - unless it was the Hunter.

While what you say is true, I believe you completely missed my point. Yes, the wolves will kill anyone they suspect of giftedness. HOWEVER, they can't tell a gifted from a particularly suspicious innocent any better than we can tell a suspiciously acting gifted from a wolf. (And as was demonstrated yesterday, that's very difficult.) THE WOLVES DO NOT KNOW WHO THE GIFTED ARE. (Except when the gifted reveal themselves.) They can't. All they have is a best guess and gamble- is this villager a gifted and thus good for us to kill, or just an ordo we could be using for lynch bait tomorrow? Every suspicious ordo they kill removes one more villager for them to hide behind. Not to mention the trails that more vocal of us tend to leave. (One reason I dislike quietness so much- a quiet ordo leaves no trail when dead.)

Honestly, I don't know why we're even disagreeing over this- it's common sense, and we're both saying the same thing, but from different angles.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm a bit puzzled by the way Roa has played toDay. I mean she seems to defend me in every corner. That makes one uneasy. Or maybe she's using me just as her hobby-horse to go after Spm? Anyhow that I need to think toMorrow if I'm still around.

To be honest, it's quite closer to the later. As SPM said himself, the analysis of words is how wolves are caught. When I returned in the second half of the day, I set about summarizing every post that was made, and adding brief thoughts on it. (You saw the results of that in my analysis that I posted yesterday.) Why just three? Those were the top three that caught my interest. (Okay, I analyzed Nogrod out of force of habit.) When I could find nothing against you, (and I can usually find something against anyone) I saw the charges against you as being nothing more than huffing and puffing.

At first I thought Manwe was more suspicious for it- he had no backing, his case was truly coming out of thin air, and he was being pretty dogged about it. He was so desperate for people to stick blame to that he grabbed onto Kitanna, though she had done the opposite of what he accused her of. But then I analyzed SPM. SPM is arguably one of the best players in this game. And yet, here he was, latching onto a newbies baseless case, and even trying to bolster it with carefully worded propaganda. So in a way, I was "using you" to "get" SPM, in the sense that I found his case against you to be the most suspicious thing of the Day, and I am almost thuroughly convinced that he is a Faithful who wanted to look helpful, and latched onto the suspicion of a prominent and dangerous player. At the end, he even backed down and voted for his conveniently placed other "suspect," who was much closer to lynching.

And Oh, look! She the seer! Whoops. Pretty silly of you, SPM.

Too bold for a wolf? Depends on the wolf, and somehow I doubt that SPM could be anything but bold. (He's way too active and influencial.)

And do I believe Nogrod is innocent? Not unless Rikae dreamed of him and says so. I just think the case against him was pure fabrication.


There were three bandwagons yesterday, for Rikae, Garin, and Manwe. I'll be looking at the voters for Rikae first, and then Manwe, but I'd appreciate it if someone else looks at the Garin bandwagon. (I'm in it, afterall.) Or perhaps, multiple people...

Also, Rikae, if you would be so kind as to let us know what you know. Hopefully, you can clear up the messy Manwe question.

[Roa_Aoife]

Rikae voters in order of vote

Thin - first vote, put Rikae in the running
Garin - second vote, tied Rikae for lead
Briniel - third vote, put Rikae in lead ahead of Manwe
SPM - fourth vote, put Rikae in lead ahead of Garin

Thin Day 1

1st post - Doesn't think Lalaith or Mith is suspicious, points out that the hunter may still kill the seer, thinks the game is equal, finds statement by Nogrod about the wolves having just one kill odd, says she has nothing against Glirdan, banter about Roa and Nogord dynamic, disagrees with SPM about Roa and Nogrod being harsh on the silent, thinks Manwe's weird but has some good points, thinks Rikae's vote on Manwe is weird, thinks Manwe's calmness speaks for his innocense, doesn't have any real suspicions

2nd post - Thinks this is the most paranoid Day 1 ever.

3rd post - thinks that TGWBS idea to look at the quiet ones is good, questions why she is on Holby's list, has to vote early, Votes Rikae, says she's the biggest suspect she has, thinks she jumps on Manwe too early, considers it a fact that there is very little to go on until Day 2, also keeping an eye on Durelin.

While I typically expect more from Thin, she did explain that she would have trouble being present for Day 1. Less "frothy" than usual, but again, she had less time... Honestly, I don't see anything out of place here. I'm starting to get suspicious just because of that. Basically, she offers commentary on evrything that's been an issue up until her arrival, in typical Thin fashion. As for the placement of her vote- Wolves tend for the middle, rather than the begining. She wasn't the first to find Rikae's vote odd, so I don't think she could be painted as the starter.

Briniel Day 1

1st post - Points to Newbieness, says she's been observing for a while, and will try her best, would rather observe Manwe a little before pointing fingers at him, thinks Hookbill is a little nervous about the accusations.

2nd post - doesn't really suspect anyone at this point, still feels hesitant about accusing Manwe

3rd post - wishes she had more time to think about things, had a first thought but is now looking at Garin too, decides to stick with her instinct and Votes Rikae, has to leave.


All Newbies have different ways of starting. Some, like Manwe, are very bold. Some, like Brinniel it would seem, are more thoughtful. I dislike it when newbies point it out, but she only said so once, and it seemed like more of an apology than an attempt for pity. I did find her comment to Hookbill odd, and I wish she had given more reasoning behind her vote for Rikae, but at this moment, I'm not sure she should be lynched for it.

As for the others who voted for Rikae, Garin is dead, and you all know what I think of SPM.

I will say this, though- if not for his vote, Rikae would not have had to reveal. This was after she returned and explained herself, and he was the only one who refused to believe her, and the case against her had almost as little backing as the one against Nogrod. It seems like he picked on her out of all the others who voted for Manwe (including Durelin, who voted first, and clearly had enough time to return, which was something that SPM said against Rikae.)

Back with Manwe voters in a little bit.

[Rikae]

I doubt very highly looking at the people who voted for me will reveal anything useful. As has been pointed out several times (and repeatedly in the last game) gifteds tend to look suspicious. I imagine looking at the Garin voters would be more fruitful...

Oh yes...this is my last day among you. As four of you know already, the ranger protected me last night.

I think I'll leave it at that for now.

[Nogrod]

Even though I still agree with you Roa on SPaM's suspiciousness yesterDay I've learned to be a bit paranoid with you too...

Basically I don't think that "out of the thread" speculations are to be encouraged but this one I just couldn't help noticing. You posted two lengthy posts within three minutes interval in the first half an hour of the Day. So you had them prepared in advance I presume? No one can deny that people mighn't use their spare time making posts ready for the next Day already beforehand even if they didn't know whether they would be alive or not on that following Day. But it just bothers me a bit right now. I mean I like to do a lot of work for a game when I have time but not use hours to it beforehand if I wouldn't be certain I will be alive... and we know who the people here are who need not worry about them surviving the Night.

EDIT: X'd with two last ones

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think I'll leave it at that for now.

Your choice. Just do not let us lynch that innocent in the end of the Day...

[Lalaith]

I imagine looking at the Garin voters would be more fruitful...

Just what I was going to suggest. I know some people switched to save Rikae, but even so, there was something not quite right about the Garin bandwaggon.

As for the two departures. I was so sure Holby was fishy, and now it seems she was an ord all along. No werefaithful slayings though.
Was this due to a thwarted attempt by the weres to kill the seer, or did the Mod take pity on us and decide the death by departure of two ords was enough to be getting on with?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

...or did the Mod take pity on us and decide the death by departure of two ords was enough to be getting on with?

How should I put it best?


No.

[Lalaith]

Okay. So let me get this straight. So do we assume, villagers, that the Ranger protected Rikae and the wolves tried to kill her?

I may be missing something, but I think this is odd. Would the wolves not assume that the Ranger *would* protect Rikae - or did they risk a double-bluff?

[Roa_Aoife]

We shouldn't assume anything. Only the wolves and the Ranger know what happened last night, and they're the only ones who need to know. It changes nothing for us toDay, unless the ranger comes forward. And that would be highly unadvisable at this stage. They'd be signing their own death warrant.

[Nogrod]

Okay. About 5½ hours before my wake up call...

Just no new ideas springing up to my mind right now and no time to make any lengthier analysis.

I hope I can join us opening some new ways of looking at this later on the Day as I seem to have at least three wolves out of my grasp, at worst all four of them.

Speak people.

[Roa_Aoife]

Manwe voters

Durelin - First vote, put Manwe in the running
Rikae - Second vote, put Manwe in the lead
Hookbill - third vote, had little effect on standings
Legate - fourth, kept Manwe in the running
Nogrod - fifth, tied Manwe with Rikae
Lalaith - sixth, put Manwe in second

Unless someone comes out to contest Rikae's claim, she's a known innocent. And Nogrod I've already analyzed.

Durelin, Day 1

1st post - Says the numbers will make this crazy, thinks it's silly to discuss wolvish behavior, says we need to stir things up a bit more, interested in back and forth between Manwe and SPM, finds Mith strange, thinks her nonchalance is forced, concerned by Glirdan's post, response to Garin

2nd post - thinks Manwe is enganging in "ultimate" Day 1 nonsense, says she has nothing better to go on, votes Manwe, says his "fisherman's wisdom is getting to her/him (?), hopes to be back before deadline, but is uncertain.

(Weak reasoning, but given the ammount of evidence available, and the time limitations, it's understandable)

3rd post - Says the two loudest people (SPM and Nogrod) are getting the most looking at, doesn't like the reasoning of "if they're Faithful, they'd be dangerous," "We've been here before...", doesn't get the case against Nogrod, finds Manwe's reaction interesting, thinks a Faithful would have been more "honey-tongued", doesn't think the timing of Rikae's vote is odd, but rather that is was for Manwe, thinks Garin is Odd looking

(Durelin sure says a lot in one post. I find her statement that SPM was one of the two most looked at players odd. To my knowledge, I was the only one looking at him, though others had disagreed with him. I don't know that anyone said either was being suspected because they could be dangerous if Baddies.)

4th post - thinks her (?) vote for Manwe might stand, but also thinks Rikae and Garin are acting odd, doesn't have enough to go on, even though she doesn't really have alot for Manwe, either, reminds us that a lot of people aren't being looked at at all, agrees with Mith that Roa hasn't gotten a whole lot of notice, response to TGWBS, says Glirdan worries her because he complained about the lack of posting, but did nothing about it, thinks she needs to look at Kath again, think Hookbill brings up a good point, thinks Manwe may be the cobbler, doesn't like Manwe's comment about wanting Nogrod lynched, also bothered by Roa's certainty about SPM, uncertain about going after bold players or quiet players, asks Nogrod for new thoughts

(In her previous post, she said she was no longer certain about Manwe, and here she admits to having no real case, but she seems very content to let her vote stand. All this post has is a lot of waffling about whether or not it's prudent to attack the loud players or not. The fourth paragrapgh can basically be summed up in "The loudest players could be bold innocents, but they could be bold wolves, too." For all her talking, she comes to no conclusions about anything, except that alot of people are acting strange. )

5th post - changes vote from Manwe to Garin

(A vote to save the seer. I can't fault her for that, unless she's trying to make herself look good.)

6th post - Thinks she may have jumped the gun on her vote for Garin

Some odd things from Durelin's posts. Though she says she dislikes waffling, she does an awful lot of it herself, especially in her third and fourth posts. She admits to having no case againast Manwe, but she does very little to find anything, it seems.


Hookbill next.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Basically I don't think that "out of the thread" speculations are to be encouraged but this one I just couldn't help noticing. You posted two lengthy posts within three minutes interval in the first half an hour of the Day. So you had them prepared in advance I presume? No one can deny that people mighn't use their spare time making posts ready for the next Day already beforehand even if they didn't know whether they would be alive or not on that following Day. But it just bothers me a bit right now. I mean I like to do a lot of work for a game when I have time but not use hours to it beforehand if I wouldn't be certain I will be alive... and we know who the people here are who need not worry about them surviving the Night.

I work on the assumption that it doesn't matter if I die or not- I need to have the work done and ready. You may be bothered if you wake up dead and all that work goes to waste. I'm just not.

Besides, with the exception of the last game, I'm very rarely killed by the wolves until far later in the game. (I draw way to much suspicion during the Day to be wasted as a kill so early in the game.) Besides, as I'm quite vocal in my suspicions, if I'm right and nail a wolf, it's too dangerous to kill me, because it will paint a clear and direct line to the culprit.

Let's not tip-toe around this. I'm an ordo- I have no reason to fear death. Only wolves and gifteds do that.

Back to work.

[Rikae]

Durelin - Mac told me I was protected by the ranger.

I suppose the faithfuls might have gone for me hoping the ranger, assuming they wouldn't want to waste a kill, protected someone else last night so he/she could protect me tomorrow, when I'd be in greater danger. It had occured to me that the ranger might do that, maybe the faithfuls had the same thought? Good thing he/she didn't decide to!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mac the Mod God

A villager who has been protected successfully will know he has been saved, but not by whom or from whom.

Plain and simple. Although we yet have only Rikae's word for it. But as I said earlier, I'm ready to take her word now and concentrate on other issues like finding the faithfuls.

I'll be back for the last 5-6 hours.

EDIT: X'd with Rikae...