Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now you're talkin' my fisherman! Even though I would hate to lose an innocent Roa - I really would - there is sense in this. I mean I first hesitated and was kind of agreeing with Rikae's suggestion that we do not waste our lynch on her toDay. But there is one problem there and it is as follows.

If we let Roa live and Rikae makes it through the Night, we can't say it is because she (Rikae) is a Faithful and has fooled us or because the wolves are bluffing us. And that in turn would mean both that we kill an innocent toDay with some pretty considerable probabilities and that we will be faced with real tough dilemmas toMorrow as to what to do, thus increasing the risk that our gifteds feel the need to reveal themselves...

If you kill Roa today, you're throwing away every advantage I've managed to give you. If the faithfuls did decide to bluff by leaving me alive until tomorrow, you could lynch me then and prove my identity, and you would have another dream. Of course, the faithfuls know that and won't leave me alive - which means tomorrow you will have two known "non-faithfuls" - Nogrod and Roa.
Roa counts as an innocent, and since she's been revealed, she can do no harm. My dreams will be verified soon enough.
Kill Roa and you lose one "known nonfaithful" and reduce your numbers by one. Kill someone else and you stand a chance of getting a faithful - or at least, you still have two you can remove from the list of possible faithfuls tomorrow, when I'm dead.
Feel free to disregard my advice, but I'm telling you, you're throwing away your advantage.
I'll read over the thread one more time and post my thoughts on everyone in a few minutes...

[Roa_Aoife]

Why am I not surprised, Rikae? Of course you don't want me lynched, it will prove you're lying.


I'm half tempted to vote myself just to thwart you.

[Mänwe]

People, what Rikae says is why I wrote my second 'plus' for killing Roa, if we kill Roa and she is innocent we know that Rikae is lying without doubt. Rikae telling us Roa is the Cobbler is a perfect chance to sort the mess out of, is she (Roa) a Cobbler, and is she (Rikae) the Seer.

I do not think we would be losing an advantage, Rikae has given us the greatest adavantage of all, and that is too accuse someone.

[Roa_Aoife]

Manwe, is right. If you kill me, you'll know she's lying. If you let me live, you won't know if she's alive tomorrow because she's evil, or because the faithful are bluffing. Of course, if you let me live, the faithful may kill her because they still believe she's telling the truth (possible, but not likely, in my opinion) and you'll see on the list of the dead that she is Tar-Miriel. Because you're all right in one sense- this is too bold for a wolf, especially so early in the game.

[Roa_Aoife]

You had no way to effectively disprove her until she shared what she knew. Wisely she waited to do so, and you did, too. The Cobbler's point isn't to commit suicide. You weren't going to stick your neck out that far.

The cobbler's point is to create confusion and keep wolves from getting lynched, even if it means getting themselves lynched in place of a wolf. There were few enough people about that I could have called her a liar, bumped her into the lead with my vote, and created enough confusion that everyone else would have been paralyzed to do anything. With out any contention at all, everyone was confused and unsure of what to do. Imagine if I had contested her claim with one of my own!

The next day, a lynched seer with no reveals, and one known cobbler, who most people would have voted for and lynched, and that's two days you don't catch a wolf. That would be a great move for a cobbler. I should know, I've been thinking of that possibility since my first game with Nogrod. And you obviously haven't played with me very much, because I would definitely put my neck out like that. I have before, and I wouldn't hesitate to do it again.

[Mänwe]

Rikae, I would like to point out I was not the one that made the 'worthless villager' post.

~~~

tgwbs, I see your reasoning here, but do you not think to kill Roa and see what she really is would prove without a doubt whether Rikae was the seer...don't forget by your own reasoning, we will lose the Seer this evening, and so gain no more benefit from her.

Killing Roa and finding out what she is would prove without doubt whether Rikae is the Seer or not. It's a win win situation in a way, for if Rikae is not a Seer than we can kill her, with a certain knowledge she is either the actual Cobbler or Faithful thats if she does not die tonight. If she dies tonight then we have lost her, a possible Seer. But we knew we had lost her when she revealed herself yesterday.

Though there is the chance of one more dream...which if she isn't the Seer proven by whether Rao is the Seer would no doubt just be another lie. I'm starting to think that Roashould be the one to die....

Edited with tgwbs

[Nogrod]

Back again and the game is just getting better!

Good thing Rikae that you remembered that a Cobbler is counted as an innocent in the final counts! I had totally forgotten it. But Durelin also has a point. Especially in a game in a village that might still have some less informed villagers (those who can't bother to read what other people say) in their ranks an informed cobbler could be devastating. tgwbs is right that we can absorb one Cobbler now, but if the going gets tougher - fex. if we don't get some Faithfuls soon - then we'd had much harder situation to get rid of her...

So I must say I'm turning more and more to lynching Roa despite her brave effort. I mean there are some rewards to be gained with it.

And even without any extra-rewards the setting get clearer / lots of information starts to make sense. If Rikae is right which I see more likely then we've gotten rid of a potentially dangerous cobbler from the endgame and not lynched an innocent. If Rikae bluffs and Roa was an innocent, we know she'll be our Cobbler (or possibly although not probably our Faithful) and we can lynch her when we see it fit (if she bluffs I suggest we get the Pan man first).

Also we'll be having a host of other information from toDay to chew toMorrow too.

I'll try to make a summary now but will follow the discussion...

EDIT: X'd with Mänwe & Mith

[Mithalwen]

Just to make you aware that it seems Hookbill will also be leaving us. Unless he happens to be a wolf then we have "absorbed" 3 innocents in one day. You can't rely on a ranger save ... lynching the cobler for peace of mind might be an expensive luxury.

[Nogrod]

Just thought of reminding us with this as I had kept this in my Word...

Gil - > Spm
Lommy - > tgwbs
Brinniel - > Legate
Spm - > Roa
Lalaith - > Roa (Spm1, tgwbs1, Legate1, Roa2)

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I still think it would be best to leave Roa be today.
Even though I got a way better feel about Legate today he is the only one with a vote that I find suspiciouse and now Lommy will ask why I don't build a strong case around one of my other suspects then. . .the answer is: Because I don't have a strong case. But if I was not to vote Legate, I would probably go for Brinniel.

++Legate

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

If the faithfuls did decide to bluff by leaving me alive until tomorrow, you could lynch me then and prove my identity, and you would have another dream.

Despite everyone ignoring, I'd thought I'd help by pointing this out. While, despite Durelin's claim, a cobbler can be suicidal, a seer never should be. To just accept getting lynched when you could keep living and providing dreams isn't very seeresque at all. In fact, it's the seer's job to live as long as possible. For her claims, she's not trying very hard to stay alive.

Though I'm sure everyone will just skip over this and ignore as they keep doing. If this continues much more, I may just withdraw from the game- there's certainly no point in sticking around now.

[Durelin]

Later than I wanted to be, but here and open minded. I do hope we're not overthinking this, and will trap ourselves in that. I also hope that "wasting a lynch" on Roa doesn't mean we will waste a lynch on a different person who seems simply a good alternative.

We've spent a lot of the Day discussing Roa and Rikae, so I'm afraid of everyone, when and if we do sort of come to a consensus (which may or may not be a good idea, considering the wolves could lead the way on either side), if we decide not to lynch Roa, our lynch target will be far too random.

The votes [edit]stood when I posted this[/edit] as:

Roa 3, Legate 2, SPM 1.

Enough has been said about Roa.

If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait (*gasp*, I know he's scary). Roa may not know who the wolves are, but for what we have to go on... Ugh, I wish I had more ideas at this point.

Legate is seemingly the easiest option if we deem that Roa is a wasted lynch, which makes me wary. I have no idea about Legate. I think he has been trying to be helpful, and whether or not that is forced I cannot tell right now (yes, yes, I need to read through pretty much everyone's posts again). The fact that Roa balatantly supported him makes him an easy target, which is just the sort of opportunity wolves might jump on, or at least nudge along. I do not rule out voting for him, but I have not seen enough to make me vote for him right now (and there's not much Day left, for that matter).

I agree with TGWBS in looking at those who Roa did not mention, several of whom have been slipping by without notice. Specifically I am concerned with Brinniel and Kath. They've both been quite amiable and helpful seeming when *needed*, per say.

Anyway, I probably just cross-posted with a lot of people...I'll try to keep up in these last minutes (about 20 when I post this).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I get my first two votes in WW. Surely a moment to remember

However,

Originally Posted by Rune son of Bjarne

Even though I got a way better feel about Legate today he is the only one with a vote that I find suspiciouse and now Lommy will ask why I don't build a strong case around one of my other suspects then. . .the answer is: Because I don't have a strong case. But if I was not to vote Legate, I would probably go for Brinniel.

However, not having a strong case is actually what Brinniel accuses me of. Well, that's just the problem - I don't have any particular suspect yet, yesterday it was Mänwe at first, today, I am in the middle of a mixture. I know whom I don't suspice, which is as much important to me as to know whom I would suspice. This far, I am more like following my best sense and reason to vote the one less unsuspicious (I hope you get it), someone who I am sure would do no harm lynching (this was why I asked if it is in our intentions to lynch Roa, by the way).

I was hoping I'll return home earlier and have yet time to send some more thoughts, but having to read (again) through all the previous page and Rune's vote popping at me in the end, well, you know what.

I'll post my vote yet, trying to find something helpful, if some stroke of brilliance strikes me! Otherwise I'd probably go for Roa.

Edit: Cross-posted with about ten people...

[Kitanna]

My time is limited for the moment and anything I could or would say appears to have been said already.

I have missed so much and I had something to say about Roa and Rikae. But how fast an idea can change. Here's something that is bothering me and rereading the rules has not helped. I'm guessing if the seer dreams of the cobbler their role is revealed as cobbler. It has not been that way before and the rules say nothing of such a scenario.

what to do with Roa now. I agree it would be better to let her go, she cannot do much if we don't heed to her advice, or can she?

A lot of damage can be done the longer a cobbler is kept alive.

I am a bit unsettled by this whole Rikae-seer/ Roa-Cobbler thing. As I started reading I today's posts I was willing to accept Rikae's innocence as seer and I also believed Roa was innocent. However, in light of Rikae revealing Roa I feel a shadow of doubt creeping over my mind.

Here's what gets me and makes me doubt somethings. Rikae thinks we should let Roa be.

I could understand this if Rikae knew one wolf, but she knows the cobbler and an innocent. Why suggest not voting for Roa when we have a non-innocent/ non-gifted that can turn the tide in favor of the faithfuls?

I wouldn't waste today's lynch on Roa, if I were you

later

If you kill Roa today, you're throwing away every advantage I've managed to give you.

I realize how bad this is for me to even dare to say this, but if Rikae is the seer she is giving us horrible advice. Even if we don't listen to Roa, keeping her alive today, or maybe even tomorrow, will only be more dangerous for the village. Roa is most likely going to die anyway, but Rikae telling us not to "waste" our votes on Roa disturbs me. If Roa is not innocent we need to eliminate her from the game.

Roa's latest posts scream of last ditch efforts and it is most likely true she's the cobbler. However, I cannot understand why Rikae would advise against the village voting for Roa. I just can't wrap my mind around that. At the end of today and as Day 3 begins all this confusion will be cleared up.

If Roa dies a cobbler, Rikae is the proven seer and dies in the night. We're out a dream, but we have killed the one non-faithful who could cost the village innocents a victory.
If Roa should die an innocent, Rikae is most likely faithful/cobbler and will survive the night only to be lynched.

I realize pretty much everything I just said is all over the place and at this moment I can't really clarify things. I also know I've put myself in a dangerous spot.

The last thing I have to say is getting rid of Roa is probably the best course of action. Her lose of her calm and collected manner makes me think Rikae is most likely telling us the truth and her words should be heeded.

However, I don't like the fact Rikae doesn't want us to waste our votes on Roa. I've seen a cobbler ensure werewolf victory and it is best to get rid of the cobbler as soon as possible. I only have a little doubt that Rikae is our seer, but that little doubt is keeping me from deciding where to vote. I will most likely vote Roa, but I'll wait and see.

[Mithalwen]

Actually I am considering ...... and also because ..well there is something from Day 1 that is bothering me and Ican't just think of what and why but I feel that the Nogrod, Roa, SpM interraction is important.

Now of the 3 I thought Nogrod seemed quite unsuspicious. Now if Rikae is bluffing she may have thought he was a good choice to name as an innocent since although if she were wolf she would know the innocents a plausible choice would be best. Whatever Nogrod's actual status he has nothing to gain by denying it at this point.

SpM usually winds me up (I don't know if it is deliberate or just the automatic consequence of him being a Gemini lawyer like my elder sibling ), so I don't know if I am just being oversensitive about his quibbling.

However if Rikae is lying, then wouldn't it have been more sensible to claim to be the hunter.... don't have to produce dreams and have a good reason for being left alone at night....

On the other hand if she IS the seer I don't see why, having made a "hit", and knowing she could not be protected again she didn't immediately reveal her dream.

Need to read back and time is getting short - and I don't think I am getting anywhere.

[the guy who be short]

Mith - That first post seemed very weird to me (and to several others). However, I can accept that anybody can make mistakes. Also, you say the sentence was rhetorical (which I didn't perceive). Most of the rest of what you say seems innocent to me, so I don't believe you're a Faithful. However, on day one you have to suspect whoever you can based on whatever evidence you have. There's sufficient additional information today for me, at least (and I believe I have been your most dedicated attacker) to turn my attention elsewhere.

Nogrod and Rikae - thanks for the (up-and-coming) info on your thoughts on everyone. I'll admit I don't know Roa very well. If people think she's that tricksy, I'll remove her from the meta-analysis and we can just see what Nogrod and Rikae think. I suppose interpretation of Roa's words can go either way - she could be speaking her mind or lying to lead us astray. Perhaps it's better to look at people she's simply avoided mentioning strong feelings about altogether: Glirdan, Brinniel, Gil-Galad, Kath and Mithalwen.

I'm having a look at Lommy next.

[the guy who be short]

Re: Lynching Roa, I'm with Rikae on this. Killing the cobbler means not killing a potential wolf. Perhaps if our numbers were smaller, killing her would be a priority.

However, we are 18, of whom 2 are known innocents and one is Tar-Miriel. Our numbers can more than absorb Roa's one vote.

I think it would be benficial to go for a different villager. Nobody is taking Roa seriously because her argument makes no sense. When Rikae dies tonight, Roa will be proven to be the cobbler. Perhaps it will be interesting to see how she reacts. She will be in a very difficult position. She will be unable to sow confusion - her main role. She will be unable to serve her Faithful masters effectively because she won't be able to encourage people to vote for whoever she thinks is innocent - we wont trust her. And she wont be able to follow the village and vote for somebody who she thinks is Faithful, because that will kill one of her precious masters.