Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Durelin · 02-28-2007, 02:25 PM

Later than I wanted to be, but here and open minded. I do hope we're not overthinking this, and will trap ourselves in that. I also hope that "wasting a lynch" on Roa doesn't mean we will waste a lynch on a different person who seems simply a good alternative.

We've spent a lot of the Day discussing Roa and Rikae, so I'm afraid of everyone, when and if we do sort of come to a consensus (which may or may not be a good idea, considering the wolves could lead the way on either side), if we decide not to lynch Roa, our lynch target will be far too random.

The votes [edit]stood when I posted this[/edit] as:

Roa 3, Legate 2, SPM 1.

Enough has been said about Roa.

If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait (*gasp*, I know he's scary). Roa may not know who the wolves are, but for what we have to go on... Ugh, I wish I had more ideas at this point.

Legate is seemingly the easiest option if we deem that Roa is a wasted lynch, which makes me wary. I have no idea about Legate. I think he has been trying to be helpful, and whether or not that is forced I cannot tell right now (yes, yes, I need to read through pretty much everyone's posts again). The fact that Roa balatantly supported him makes him an easy target, which is just the sort of opportunity wolves might jump on, or at least nudge along. I do not rule out voting for him, but I have not seen enough to make me vote for him right now (and there's not much Day left, for that matter).

I agree with TGWBS in looking at those who Roa did not mention, several of whom have been slipping by without notice. Specifically I am concerned with Brinniel and Kath. They've both been quite amiable and helpful seeming when *needed*, per say.

Anyway, I probably just cross-posted with a lot of people...I'll try to keep up in these last minutes (about 20 when I post this).

Mithalwen · 02-28-2007, 02:30 PM

Only 10 votes ..that is pants.. all the wolves could have abstained..or all voted and be horrifically influential.......

Roa_Aoife · 02-28-2007, 02:31 PM

Alright, Mith, I agree with you- the village may think they can asorb the loss of that many innocents with catching any wolves, but I don't. A village with those ratios, baddies comprising a third of the village? Even with great players as villagers, it's not good.

--Roa_Aoife

++SPM

I hope the wolves don't believe me, Rikae, because if I don't die, the village will be spared the confusion of dealing with you another Day.

Roa_Aoife · 02-28-2007, 02:32 PM

I'm tied with SPM now. One vote will make the difference.

Mithalwen · 02-28-2007, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Alright, Mith, I agree with you- .

If the situation weren't so dire I'd suggest champagne to mark this historic event

But I fear it will have been a futile act in the end ..and they will lynch you today and me tomorrow for trying to keep you from the gallows, and then the village will be truly stuffed...

Durelin · 02-28-2007, 02:39 PM

Oh great, now I'll have "the difference" resting on my shoulders.

I agree with you, Nogrod, about clarity. Personally, I need it right now, and I don't want to wait on the Faithfuls to bring it to us.

Mith - Why are you so concerned about saving Roa, but at the same time you make it seem like you feel SPM really is a shot in the dark? (I'm short of time and so not reading very carefully, so I may be off...)

Mithalwen · 02-28-2007, 02:41 PM

Trust me..the numbers aren't great. We are no nearer to getting a wolf than yesterday ......and even if Roa is the cobbler, unless the Ranger is having a good run, tomorrow morning 1 in 4 of the village are wolves.

Mithalwen · 02-28-2007, 02:43 PM

And 2more players may have gone. SpM isn't entirely a shot in the dark.

And Rikae's spite vote doesn't convince me ......

the guy who be short · 03-01-2007, 03:56 PM

Right-o. Today, I intend to actually get my analysis of Lommy done. I also suspect:

- All those who voted for Roa.
- All those who considered believing Roa.

For opposing themselves, on a mathematical basis, to the needs of the village. It is clear now that Roa intended for us to waste a day. I made it clear that I did not believe her for a second, because her argument was illogical. Because it was illogical, this leads me to believe that those who did accept it were Faithful, trying to make an issue of it and help waste the day.

I also agree that somebody should post and analyse the voting records. Alas, I have not the time today.

Mänwe · 02-28-2007, 02:36 PM

Well I will stick to what I have said;

++ Roa_Aoife

Roa_Aoife · 02-28-2007, 02:37 PM

Yeah, good bye, Mith. This village has hung themselves.

And I just remembered, Glirdan is dying too now, because of his failure to vote twice, and he only has one post. Mac, don't back out on your own rules now.

Nogrod · 02-28-2007, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And I just remembered, Glirdan is dying too now, because of his failure to vote twice, and he only has one post. Mac, don't back out on your own rules now.

Funny wish from one who hopes only the best for the village.

++ Roa_Aoife

At least we'll learn things.

If this is a great bluff and they'll kill me toNight remember to hang the PanMan toMorrow... if you don't have a splendid reason not to.

Mithalwen · 02-28-2007, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

At least we'll learn things.

Oh yeah ..we won't lose in ignorance

but I prefer to maximise the odds

Nogrod · 02-28-2007, 02:46 PM

Rikae: Either I don't understand the reasons for your heatedness or then there are even bigger things here...

02-28-2007, 02:30 PM	#2
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	Only 10 votes ..that is pants.. all the wolves could have abstained..or all voted and be horrifically influential....... __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

02-28-2007, 02:31 PM	#3
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Alright, Mith, I agree with you- the village may think they can asorb the loss of that many innocents with catching any wolves, but I don't. A village with those ratios, baddies comprising a third of the village? Even with great players as villagers, it's not good. --Roa_Aoife ++SPM I hope the wolves don't believe me, Rikae, because if I don't die, the village will be spared the confusion of dealing with you another Day. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

02-28-2007, 02:32 PM	#4
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	I'm tied with SPM now. One vote will make the difference. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

02-28-2007, 02:41 PM	#7
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	Trust me..the numbers aren't great. We are no nearer to getting a wolf than yesterday ......and even if Roa is the cobbler, unless the Ranger is having a good run, tomorrow morning 1 in 4 of the village are wolves. __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

02-28-2007, 02:43 PM	#8
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	And 2more players may have gone. SpM isn't entirely a shot in the dark. And Rikae's spite vote doesn't convince me ...... __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

02-28-2007, 02:25 PM	#1
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	Later than I wanted to be, but here and open minded. I do hope we're not overthinking this, and will trap ourselves in that. I also hope that "wasting a lynch" on Roa doesn't mean we will waste a lynch on a different person who seems simply a good alternative. We've spent a lot of the Day discussing Roa and Rikae, so I'm afraid of everyone, when and if we do sort of come to a consensus (which may or may not be a good idea, considering the wolves could lead the way on either side), if we decide not to lynch Roa, our lynch target will be far too random. The votes [edit]stood when I posted this[/edit] as: Roa 3, Legate 2, SPM 1. Enough has been said about Roa. If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait (gasp, I know he's scary). Roa may not know who the wolves are, but for what we have to go on... Ugh, I wish I had more ideas at this point. Legate is seemingly the easiest option if we deem that Roa is a wasted lynch, which makes me wary. I have no idea about Legate. I think he has been trying to be helpful, and whether or not that is forced I cannot tell right now (yes, yes, I need to read through pretty much everyone's posts again). The fact that Roa balatantly supported him makes him an easy target, which is just the sort of opportunity wolves might jump on, or at least nudge along. I do not rule out voting for him, but I have not seen enough to make me vote for him right now (and there's not much Day left, for that matter). I agree with TGWBS in looking at those who Roa did not mention, several of whom have been slipping by without notice. Specifically I am concerned with Brinniel and Kath. They've both been quite amiable and helpful seeming when needed, per say. Anyway, I probably just cross-posted with a lot of people...I'll try to keep up in these last minutes (about 20 when I post this).

02-28-2007, 02:39 PM	#6
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	Oh great, now I'll have "the difference" resting on my shoulders. I agree with you, Nogrod, about clarity. Personally, I need it right now, and I don't want to wait on the Faithfuls to bring it to us. Mith - Why are you so concerned about saving Roa, but at the same time you make it seem like you feel SPM really is a shot in the dark? (I'm short of time and so not reading very carefully, so I may be off...)

03-01-2007, 03:56 PM	#9
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Right-o. Today, I intend to actually get my analysis of Lommy done. I also suspect: - All those who voted for Roa. - All those who considered believing Roa. For opposing themselves, on a mathematical basis, to the needs of the village. It is clear now that Roa intended for us to waste a day. I made it clear that I did not believe her for a second, because her argument was illogical. Because it was illogical, this leads me to believe that those who did accept it were Faithful, trying to make an issue of it and help waste the day. I also agree that somebody should post and analyse the voting records. Alas, I have not the time today.

02-28-2007, 02:36 PM	#10
Mänwe Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: May as well be the Arctic Circle Posts: 283	Well I will stick to what I have said; ++ Roa_Aoife __________________ "I am, I fear, a most unsatisfactory person." - (Letter #124 To Sir Stanley Unwin)

02-28-2007, 02:37 PM	#11
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Yeah, good bye, Mith. This village has hung themselves. And I just remembered, Glirdan is dying too now, because of his failure to vote twice, and he only has one post. Mac, don't back out on your own rules now. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

02-28-2007, 02:46 PM	#14
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Rikae: Either I don't understand the reasons for your heatedness or then there are even bigger things here... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

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