Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[the guy who be short]

Well, well, an angry Nogrod on my case, eh? Let's see if my logic can persuade him otherwise.
Firstly, I don't get the point you're trying to make in highlighting "a little." Suspecting SpM when he lives on is natural, as you yourself show. However, the Faithful know that innocents think like this, so they may leave him alive, especially if his analyses are wayward, knowing that the village will eventually turn on him.

Originally Posted by nogrod

tgwbs: how about a short list now? One that the known innocent gives consisting of you three?

If you look back, you will note that I did not advocate a shortlist this game. The way people keep bringing this up annoys me, because it is fabricated. I advocated using you as a base. I also said that a shortlist in this village would be mathematically unwise as we don't have enough known villagers.

As it is, I don't much mind being on your shortlist. I see no reason why I should be exempt from your suspicion. But the idea of a shortlist in this game (not universally) is flawed. Observe:

There are 12 unknown villagers. 4 are wolves. This means the probability of there being at least one wolf in a shortlist of 3 is 1 - (2/3)^3 = 70%. Good odds.

However, with only 1 known innocent, the wolves have too much sway in the voting. There's a 44% chance of 1 wolf, a 22% chance of 2 wolves and a 4% chance of 3 wolves (as well as 30% 0 wolves). It's therefore most likely that there's one wolf. This means the four wolves can have huge influence by voting for the other two candidates, making the rest of the villagers also pay more attention to the innocent targets.

Comprendrez? Shortlist = good with lots of known innocents, small number of wolves. Shortlist = bad with few known innocents, large number of wolves.

I hope I've made that clear once and for all.

just outrageous what tgwbs passes forwards with the epithet of logic.

I'm a mathematician, and I'm afraid I think mathematically. I stand by my ideas - such as leaving Roa alive. Perhaps if everybody else had ignored her, we'd have caught a wolf by now. Thank you for digging up what you advised to forget, anyway.


I notice how Gil voted for me as soon as he saw there was some support from Nogrod. If Manwe pulls out, I'll be voting Gil, because they way he's just floating on without anybody paying attention to him is dangerous.