Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Nogrod]

Unusually I seem to be at least half-awake at this hour and can't resist commenting on a few points.

It's funny that Roa and an over-active Gil (does this sudden activity tell us anything? he's a wolf = bad for us, or he's just actually starting to play the game = good for us) are having a row. That would suggest to me that at least another one of them is innocent. If they were both wolves they would not argue like that as it would be quite clear that Roa could talk Gil to the gallows in a wink of an eye if she so wanted.

Originally Posted by Roa

Don't be so sure- it's happened before. Ask Lommy. She's in the Fenris Wolf club because of her fellow wolf Ang, who managed to survive till the very last day, mostly because everyone regarded him as innocent for voting her.

I agree with the "don't be so sure" -part here. Helping to lynch a mate is a good tactics for a werewolf in certain situations. I've done that myself as Roa has been keen to remind you.

But I'm a bit puzzled why always so intelligent Roa is so happy to jump on my vote and to try and make an issue out of it. It's the same kind of argument that some people here seem to throw on Lommy. "It was the reasonable thing to do (her vote on Glirdy and my vote on Glirdy), but if s/he were a wolf, s/he would have done the same..." That's hardly an argument. If a vote is reasonable for an innocent and if a witty wolf would thence do the same thing, it can't be counted as an argument for someone's lupinity.

With that logic everyone who voted reasonably should be seen as especially suspicious.

And that's hardly the way Roa herself thinks about the matters, right? I don't remember seeing Roa who would have carried the card of random voting yet...

Now I need to get to sleep at last. Sad I didn't have time to see Roa's analysis which I kind of hoped for. It seems she makes it with piety - at least with what comes to the time she has spent with it...

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I'm a bit puzzled why always so intelligent Roa is so happy to jump on my vote and to try and make an issue out of it. It's the same kind of argument that some people here seem to throw on Lommy.

It's not that I find your vote suspicious. In fact if it were your vote alone, I wouldn't find you suspicious at all. (Well, at least not more suspicious than anyone else.) I'm merely arguing that it doesn't make you unsuspicious, if that makes any sense. People are keen to exonerate you for the placement of your vote. I'm telling them why that's foolish.

Now I need to get to sleep at last. Sad I didn't have time to see Roa's analysis which I kind of hoped for. It seems she makes it with piety - at least with what comes to the time she has spent with it...

I'm especially pious when analyzing you, dear. (Finally found a use for that!) If you want it done quickly next time, don't post so much.

[The Sixth Wizard]

Oh man, people I thought were innocent are plastering ridiculous accusations over each other, this only makes it harder to tell who's the wolf . . . What's more they're plastering things over me!

Glirdan voted for sixth after he himself received 2 votes, so he could try and save a fellow wolf by voting for them, thus drawing any suspicion off of sixth.

That was a bit of a big assumption, don't you think? After only two votes, both near the start of the day, one by a newbie (me) and one by a suspect (Lommy), do you think Glirdan would really have given himself up to his fate to make me look completely innocent? And do you think that I would have accused him so early on the game?

now don't tell me your falling for the whole compassion thing too? as i said before, there is nobody you can trust in WW unless absolutely cleared by the Seer, which we don't know so far, but if you are defending sixth, then you are raising suspicion to yourself, for you and sitxh could be the other wolves we are hunting...

Cobbler?

My new list of suspects...

TGWBS
Legate of Amon Lanc
Brinniel
Gil-Galad

Retalitory? Moi?

[Roa_Aoife]

Nogrod (Summary in regular, thoughts in Itallics, final analysis in Bold)
Day 1

1st post - Agrees with Mac about people bemoaning Day 1, says the village should keep talking with less roleplay, will suspect people more for saying Day 1's are useless, thinks Roa was making a reasonable point, but remembers Roa is reasonable as a villain, hesitates to lynch Glirdy based on record, confirms that Lommy has no choice but to vote early

Standard "Day 1's are NOT useless" spiel, to be expected, interesting "Roa makes sense but could still be evil" point, followed by, "Glirdy looks bad but could be innocent," followed by, "Loomy has a valid excuse, but could be using that to her evil advantage." Waaaay more waffling in the first post than I expect from Nogrod. Very inconclusive for him. Sets off some alarms.

2nd post - Thinks Mac, Rikae, and Roa are being "cool and wise" but worries that they could be deceptive, thought Rikae was suspicious for point against Roa, but finds her sharing the suspicion of TGWBS, thinks TGWBS suspicion of Lommy is suspicious, doesn't think Lommy is innocent, but thinks the case against her is worrying, thinks that a wise wolf relaxes on Day 1, but doesn't rule out a wolf trying to steer the voting, concerned by Legate, also sixth, but doesn't want to lynch him on his first day.

Again with the waffling. For talking so much, he says very little of impact. His best suspicion is TGWBS, but basically for his case against Lommy, whom NOgrod waffles over some more. This is followed by a lot of, "So and so is confusing, so and so is odd" but nothing concrete. He said himself that a wise wolf sits back and lets the innocents decide who to lynch- so far, his posting style looks like just that. Even worse, he looks like what Iwas doing as a cobbler, throwing a little bit of suspicion everywhere and letting the innocents decide who to go after.

3rd post - points out that the fault of a "flood" is not the first poster but those who want to carry on the discussion, thinks the discussion surrounding Roa's post will be usefull later.

Actually, this post seems fine. At least he says something somewhat definite.

4th post - Lists the votes and the stated reasons for each vote, plus vote count

He's putting some meat into his vote counts now. I wonder if he'll draw any conclusions or continue waffling.

5th post -
Lommy's vote for Glirdan- not suspicious, but doesn't make her innocent, doesn't want to lynch her just yet.
See: Waffling
Sixth's vote for Glirdan- see Lommy
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/waffling
Glirdan's vote for Sixth - doesn't like retaliatory voting, thinks it's counter productive to never vote like that, tangent about Day 1's, uncomforatble lynching Glirdan, wants to think about it
What's that sign say? oh, "Waffle House"
Roa for TGWBS - doesn't think the reasoning is good, doesn't want to vote her with out more evidence
Most conclusive thing yet
Gil for Lommy - disturbing, "confused" about his mentioning of the gifteds, wonders about Roa suspecting Gil for the same reason, (?) doesn't want to lynch him for the same reasons he doesn't want to lynch Glirdan- the two usually turn out innocent
That defense almost worked for the Lupine Glirdan. Almost.
TGWBS for Lommy - somewhat suspicious and unnerving, thinks the case is weak, thinks TGWBS is voting in the same way he did when he was a wolf (last game), suspected him then for the same reasons, not impossible for him to be a wolf two days in a row, doesn't want to vote him on Day 1.
He almost had it, he really did. Almost a genuine solid anything, but it was not to be. Dashed upon the accursed rocks of "But he could be helpful if he's not evil, even though he's clearly evil looking."
Feels more unsure of everything, vaguely pointing to the quiet

This is the most surprising of all. The normal Nogrod will usually aim for the quiet first, but here his gesturung towards them is almost feeble! I know you like to be cautious, but this is taking it too far. Where's the Nogrod who pulled a case against me literally out of thin air? I'm getting deeply concerned by this behavior.

6th post - question about time

7th post - Wants to relook at TGWBS, gives credence to Mith's plan to lynch xyzzy, says mathmatically he has about a 3/13 chance of being a wolf

The waffling aside, this has all the alarms ringing. Just a few posts ago, we had a possiblity of catching a wolf. Now he might go for a mostly random vote? He didn't want to kill Sixth because it was his first day of his first game, but the same doesn't apply to Xyzzy? Further more, he has a perfectly good lynch candidate, the most suspicion person he has, and somehow now, he's dropped him. What happened to looking at TGWBS further? This looks a great deal like a wolf trying to feel out his fellow players to see where the lynch is likely to go.

8th post - worries that waiting to lynch xyzzy will cause us to forget him enitrely, still "puzzled" by TGWBS, some of what TGWBS says makes sense, but other things are more suspicious, thinks TGWBS feels more malevolent than inocent, hopes Brinniel returns, wonders where Rikae is

Again he thinks TGWBS is supicious, but does nothing about it.

9th post - Thinks that lynching xyzzy may be best if she isn't coming back, but is unsure about that, thinks it's better if we vote for a possible wolf who's been present

And TGWBS doesn't count? Oh right, if he's innocent (because he's clearly not suspicious in anyway) he'll be very useful later

10th post - Thoughts on everyone Conclusions, maybe?
Upstairs
Gil and Glirdan - Post normally and look highly suspicious. Could go either way. Waffle, waffle, waffle
Sixth - first timer, doesn't want to vote for him
Roa and Thin - could be evil, but doesn't want to vote for them with so little evidence
I almost wouldn't mind him suspecting me, if it meant he be conclusive about something
Mac and Mith - not suspicious at all, but doesn't want to call them innocents "No way"
Brinniel - Sensible, doesn't suspect her anymore than anyone else
that's like a conclusion
Downstairs
Rikae and Legate - slightly suspicious
first I've heard of it
TGWBS - Worried about him, but still not dure he wants to lynch him
Of course not, why lynch someone you suspect, when you can lynch someone you have even more doubts about?
Xyzzy - already discussed
last resort safety vote, got it.

One or two wolves could be in upstairs list, but wants to vote for someone from downstairs list, or maybe Gil or Glirdan

Wait, so all this time you've been saying "Yeah, Glirdan looks suspicious, but he always does, and he's always innocent. I don't want to vote for him." Now, he suddenly a possible lynch candidate? And you prefer to vote from someone in the "downstairs" section (carefully not labeled with strong wording such as "More suspicious") where TGWBS is, but you don't mention him. The only consistancy you've had so far is that he looks more suspicious than anyone else, and yet you don't even mention him as a possible vote.

11th post - wants to wait for xyzzy

I'm not even gonna bother.

12th post - urges village not to shy away from opinions

You're one to talk

13th post - "Seven votes to cast - probably six as Xyzzy is one of them - and the leaders in votes have two each... Everything is possible."

14th post - Disagrees the TGWBS might be gifted for being sensitive to gifted talk- thinks a gifted would merely shy away from discussion.

Why is it that the only conlusions so far have nothing to do with catching wolves?

15th post - Agrees with Mac's vote for TGWBS, thinks it's reasonable, but disagrees with how he voted, "no further points or taking part on the discussion," thinks it's detached and that a wolf would do the same, mentioning that he might be killed, suggests everyone look at Mac and Roa (because Roa "jumped" on Gil)

So, you agree that TGWBS is suspicious, but instead of actually voting for him, you find someone else who voted for TGWBS suspicious. And why? Because he voted and left. No one else who did that merited suspicion from you, why him? And, just because it's iritating me- I didn't jump on Gil, so much as I mentioned that it made me suspicious of him, which you did as well. I recall many wolves accusing innocents of behavior that they themselves were doing in the past. It's in that book that Lommy mentioned, "How to Spot a wolf."

16th post - Updated list, thinks he might vote Mac, but doesn't want to spread the vote

Voting TGWBS, your primary suspect from your second post on wouldn't spread the vote.

17th post - Might consider joining xyzzy vote, would more likely vote Mac than TGWBS, doesn't want to vote either, thinks Mac's way of playing is too clean

where did that come from? You went from slight suspicion to likely vote in three posts, all without Mac doing anything at all! And what's with this xyzzy nonsense? You look like a wolf trying to find a safe place to hide.

18th post - Asks if anyone wants to go with Mac or Xyzzy

I'm incredualous at this. Out right asking for people to jump on a bandwagon either for someone who hasn't even shown up yet, or for someone whom suspicion of just matierialized out of no where. Why did he suddenly drop TGWBS? Sure, he didn't want to vote for him because he might be useful, but the same certainly applies to Mac. Why is it better to vote Mac than TGWBS? I can only think of one reason- Lommy is tied for the lead (I'm counting the cross posting as Nogrod didn't know she was in the lead) with Glirdan and TGWBS. He's blatantly encouraging everyone to lynch someone else, a substitute who hasn't even gotten votes yet. He said himself- nything could happen.

19th post - Doesn't want Lommy to go on such futile reasoning, thinks we should watch Legate

but it's okay for Mac to go on the same?

20th post - Decides to kill Glirdan "a shot in the dark"

Lommy makes a convenient excuse to suddenly change your mind about killing Glirdan and gaining a very secure seat for the next few Days. Why did you drop your suspicion on TGWBS for Mac? A vote for TGWBS would have at least given a chance for your top suspect to go down. I might expect this from someone else, but not from you, Nogrod. You're usually more definitive.

21st post - "I guess we got lots to think from these last moments for toMorrow..."

Overall, this is not the Nogrod I'm used to. He talks alot with out saying anything definitive. In fact, he reminds me of a wolfish SPM. Not to mention he completely droped his suspicion of TGWBS when there was a real possibilty of getting him lynched. Not a true contradiction, prehaps, becuase he did say repeatedly that he didn't want to vote for TGWBS. Of course he also said the same about Mac, and then turned around and blatantly tried to start a bandwagon for him in the last minutes. All Day he said nothing certain, which looks to me like he was trying to keep his options open, waiting like a wise wolf, as he so elegantly put it, to see who the unknowing villagers would lynch. When it looked like Glirdan was going to be lynched, he dropped his "Glirdan is usually innocent" attitude, and went for a vote that would no doubt make him look innocent to everyone. (See, it worked.)

The question remains- is this enough to lynch him? In the end, it comes down to odd behavior, and "fluff" as it were. Alarm bells are ringing, and unless he can justify this satisfactorily, or something better comes along (I'd really like to see an analysis of the others, plus one of TGWBS and Legate), he'll definitely be at the top of my list.

I have a lot to do in the morning, so I need to sign off now. Becuase of my schedule I may not be able to vote. However, I would rather not vote at all than vote now. See the admin thread for my reasons.

[Brinniel]

Gil- Your suspicions on Lommy are rather confusing. At first you say:

Lommy, sixth, nogrod and rikae are the only ones to have voted for Glirdan, so by following the math, they obviously tend to be the more innocent ones then

And then you place on your suspicious list:

suspicious ~ Lommy, sixth

Now, perhaps you are going more on gut instinct rather than mathematical reason. Do you still suspect her for the same reasons as your comment yesterDay?

but i got a little itch from Lommy's post... she just came right out and tried to defend Roa... could be a virtuous villager, but everyone should know that if they are an ordinary, they are on their own

If you could please further explain your reason here, I'd appreciate it.

Roa- Like always, you are indeed persuasive. And perhaps I am more easily convinced now that I don't really suspect like I did yesterDay, in fact, I hardly suspect you at all anymore. Of course, I won't completely let you off the hook; I am still wary and would hate to be completely misguided...again. Now, I haven't really had a reason to suspect Nogrod thus far, but your argument does seem quite clear. Nogrod still isn't at the top of my suspicion list, but I have bumped him from "possibly innocent" to "unsure." And I will be sure to take a good look at his future posts.

I would still like to analyze some possible suspects, but it is getting late, so I might not get that far before retiring for the night. I think I will get up earlier than normal to look deeper into this thread, as I have class in the afternoon and won't be back until an hour before deadline, which won't give me enough time to do any good analysis.

[Thinlómien]

People seem rather edgy and snappy considering that we're doing really well, one wolf dead and no dead innocents this far...

Even though I'm happy that no one died last night, I would almost have preferred someone dead. Before you start shouting: "Eek! She wants the wolves to kill us! Lynch her!" please listen to my reasoning . We outnumber the wolves right now quite clearly at this phase so it would not have been that horrible to lose one of us to gain evidence. I don't doubt there's plenty of evidence in yesterDay's voting and discussion - especially as the lynched one was a nasty lycanthrope - but kill evidence always gives some further information about the wolves' way of thinking and who are they afraid of/want to see dead, and thus clues of who they might be. But maybe it's good this way after all, the more innocents alive, the better for us, even one villager can make the difference. (So what was the point? I was just thinking aloud I guess... )

Roa, I find your analysis of Noggie extremely funny, but I've not yet decided whether I agree with it or not.

A longer post to come...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

2. Sixth for Glirdan ~ No way would a wolf have voted like this.

I'm not too sure. A cunning and bold wolf might. But I agree that a Sixthwolf wouldn't probably, since that sounds more like some experienced player's trick.
I don't like how Mac is trying to make everything too simple. This, and the things he said about me and Brinn. Kind of raises my eyebrows.

Just a little piece of advice for you, Sixth. If you think someone looks gifted, don't say it aloud, since the wolves might pick your gifted-suspect (that they'd not have noticed before) and if they too think s/he looks gifted, kill him/her.

As you can see I am a great Thinlomien supporter I'm afraid.

Haha, thank you.

What has happened to Gil??? I quite like his new self, and would not like voting him right now without strong judgement.

Originally Posted by Roa

Don't be so sure- it's happened before. Ask Lommy.

Don't ask me. I have traumas. (Not really. ) Even though that game might have something to do with the fact that I never want to be a wolf again... *shudders*
Anyway, enough with old, funny memories. Roa's right here. A wolf could very well do a thing like that.

I'm suspicious of TGWBS. I know I always am, but his actions yesterday were quite weird and eyebrow-raising. I will take a closer look at him before leaving.

I'll unfortunately have to leave and vote within an hour, I hope I manage to make a few posts before it.

edit: xed with Brinn

[Thinlómien]

Brinniel - I think she's innocent. I think she seems genuine when speaking about her "faults" and she's reasonable and has good points, especially that last post of hers was very interesting. This far, I have no reason to particularly suspect her.

Gil-Galad - Like I said, I like his new self. I don't know whether he's innocent or not, but as it's still early game and he isn't particularly suspicious I suggest we keep him around and see what happens... It's be a pity to "reward" him for his increased participation by lynching him. So this early, I won't be voting him unless he is clearly suspicious. Later, I won't be giving him any benefits.

Legate of Amon Lanc - He prances around like a hog on laughing gas. I hardly believe anything else than an ordo would be doing this. This is in contradiction with his late yesterday actions, which I find somewhat suspicious. I think he was not taking any stance and jumping around from one suspicion to another like a mad frog. (Sorry, Legate. ) Difficult to define...

Macalaure - He's far too hasty and edgy! Where has his normal, cozy self disappeared? Suspicious...

Mithalwen - I always have hard time suspecting her since her posting style - which is so sympathic and amusing - somehow always set my alarms off. She feels innocent, but Brinn has very good points about her possible guilt. So I think she's kind of "middle/gray zone" for me.

Nogrod - Unlike Roa, I think he seems mostly like his normal self. But that does ceratinly not mean he's innocent, he seems the same as a wolf too. Though I think he's maybe summarising more than he usually does this early in the game... hiding behind summaries? Anyway, it's such a minor thing I won't let it grab my attention. So all in all, Nogrod as well is in the "gray zone" for me.

Rikae - Could be any way. I honestly don't have any idea about her. Need s to be watched.

Roa_Aoife - Seems innocentish for her reasonableness and her day1 interactions with Glirdy. However, I think her cause against Noggie was a bit too fierce and slightly far-fetched. For example, she (IMO) totally unnecessarily attacks Nogrod's minor gut-suspections. Anyway, I think Roa seems more innocent than guilty.

the guy who be short - His case against me is quite stupid. I mean, he seems to try to make everything say suspicious in some way. He also seems to deliberatedly misunderstand Roa. Also Roa had good points against him.

The Sixth Wizard - Judging on his vote, Glirdy's vote for him and the general feel of him, he seems innocent-ish. I remain quite unsure about him, though, before I hear more of him and can make more solid conclusions.

xyzzy - Well not much to say but unless he starts posting more frequently, I wouldn't mind lynching him in such a easy situation for us as it's right now. (One wolf already dead, all innocents still alive.)

I'll probably be voting TGWBS or Mac, unless I get some last-minute-frenzy against Mith or Legate.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This is a point with which I don't disagree at all! I must say I will be looking tgwbs much more closely toDay. He raised my suspicions yesterDay and this kind of stuff brings me back to suspect him even more. Good point.

Um, I only said it would've been a good move to save Glirdan, which is actually quite obvious, and not a very good point. And "His reasoning isn't the best" surely isn't.
It's weird you point this one out like that.


Concerning Brinniel, I think I'll buy her explanations for yesterday. I'll put her back to 'averagely suspicious'.


Roa's analysis, wow... truly excellent. *bows*
... and appetizing as well. Is anybody else fancying a waffle right now?


Let's have a look at Nog's voting situation:

If Nogrod is evil, then in all probability either tgwbs or Lommy aren't (4 wolves in a village of 13? No way.)

Case 1: Lommy is evil.
Wouldn't he have secretly welcomed my vote for tgwbs then? Sure he wouldn't be open about it, but why'd he be so adverse to it? I think an evil Nogrod would've reacted along the lines of "tgwbs? Hmm, yeah, well, maybe, what do the others think?" Unless.. he was already sure he wanted to do some backstabbing at this point, and my vote gave an alternative he didn't, in fact, welcome anymore.

Case 2: tgwbs is evil.
Nogrod's "tgwbs is suspicious but I will rather shoot into the dark than vote for him" looks horrible in this light. Actually, it looks almost too horrible and obvious.

Case 3: they're both innocent.
In that case, Nogrod had all the options he wanted to save Glirdan without drawing attention to himself. If we were talking about anybody else but Nogrod, I would probably dismiss this possibility, but Glirdan's game, where Wolfgrod lynched more wolves than the innocents did, still gives me shudders.

I'm really puzzled about Nogrod and looking forward to his reaction to Roa.

Originally Posted by Lommy

People seem rather edgy and snappy considering that we're doing really well, one wolf dead and no dead innocents this far...

You know, these are the tiny things that really make my alarms ring. Why, why, would an innocent say things along the lines of: "Oh, come on, we're doing well, let's just play it the easy way now"?


edit: crossed with Lommy's last two

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I only just read through the today's posts, so these are just immediate reactions to what I marked down while reading them through. (revising it, it is quite chaotic) Will follow after some time with forming my opinions on everyone.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

8. Mith for Xyzzy ~ This looks like throwing away, but she was encouraging everybody to follow her vote. I think it looks quite innocentish.

I marked this one, since saying "it looks quite innocentish" is quite easy way to dispatch the case. Though I wasn't suspicious about Mith for that, I would look for any possible connection between Mith&Mac, just to be sure.

Mac's post reminded me yet of something Lommy said yesterday, I marked it, so I post it here:

Originally Posted by Lommy

He looks quite bad. (Though possibly he looks too bad to be a real baddie. )

This is why I suspected Lommy in the first place. I think generally, ambivalence is the typical sign of werewolfery. "Oh, I would vote this [fellow wolf], but perhaps I am just too suspicious." "I don't know about this [innocent villager], but I just am not sure."

The problem is: a) It might be quite stupid of Lommy being a wolf to say such things as above. b) Voted for her comrade? It's dangerous because someone might jump the bandwaggon and she couldn't know the vote on Glirdan would be safe, on the other hand, early votes go often out later in the day. How could she know if the vote will win? Be she a wolf or not, true is, what Mac says, that she probably had no better option to vote at that moment. (and I don't see anything suspicious on Mac saying that... who said that? Roa?)

Originally Posted by Six

I don't think Thinlomien was using some wolf kill wolf strategy. I think that might just be a bit too open on the first day.

But she didn't know at that time, so it actually wasn't open at all. It might have played to her favor that she didn't have enough time. Cf. above.

Originally Posted by Roa

Sixth looks most innocent (especially given Glirdan's reaction)

I agree with this, though for me better argument than Glirdan's reaction is that he was one to join the Glirdan bandwaggon. If he didn't, the solitary vote of Lommy might have gone unnoticed or whatever... so I don't think Sixth guilty now. While I suspected him yesterday, I didn't want to vote for him for the "killing newbies is not nice" reason, and now, since Glirdan proved to be a wolf, I think him innocent. Though by this reason I would consider Lommy innocent as well, she was the first one to vote for Glirdan and could not be sure what it will produce, cf. above, so this suspicion lasts.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oh, now I see why there wasn't a wolf kill. It still does give us an advantage, anyway!

You see why there wasn't a wolf kill? Tell us, why?

Oh, and one thing I just have to add:

Originally Posted by xyzzy

Who's Lommy? Is that the Thin-something-or-another-with-non-English-characters-thrown-in guy?

Yes, she is that guy.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy's last two and Mac's

[Brinniel]

For a big chunk of the end of Day One, there was a discussion on whether to vote for xyzzy. As of right now, I feel pretty confident that at least one wolf was involved in this debate.

Here are some quotes that come from this discussion:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So if it looks like pure random or very improbable in the end we should perhaps consider Xyzzy?

Originally Posted by Mac

It seems like Xyzzy hasn't realised that the game has started. Lynching newbies on Day One is not nice.

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, I would say this is not nice if xyzzy plans to show yet - maybe he has some troubles we don't know about...

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I know it is not "nice" and that it is cynical and if htey had logged on more recently I wouldn't have suggested it but I will seriously consider doing so if I don't become more certain of the guilt of the current votees ..

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Anyways, I don't intend on voting for him. I do not like to vote for people who have not had the chance to speak. Let us wait and see if he shows up toMorrow, and then we can come up with a decision.

Originally Posted by Legate

what do you think about xyzzy? Is there a possibility to vote for him, or are we leaving this out? I am for that if nothing, it would not harm the village - probably. But if someone else, then someone else... just to know who to vote for.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I know I will be thought a hard hearted witch for this but I think I am still seriouly considering going for Xzzy.....

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I think it would be a waste of toDay to vote xyzzy, when we can vote for someone who is actually suspicious. I plan to give him at least another Day to show up and I ask that everyone else does the same.

Originally Posted by Legate

it seems that it's up to us whether to lynch or not xyzzy. For this, I'd maybe reconsider and wait. Reversing Nogrod's theory, he's 10/13 an ordo, so even if he does not do anything, he is still an ordo to count against the wolf numbers

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

his is cruel but I would rather hang fire on TGWBS and take my chance - Brinniel we don't have later ...
++ Xyzzy

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If there is to be a Xyzzy vote, I might consider joining it as the other possibilities look quite problematic.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nothing else to do now. Better to shoot at darkness with Glirdy than Lommy.
++ Glirdan

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, if you said earlier, I might have voted for xyzzy. I hope I'm not wrong.

Oh geez, that's a lot of quotes... But it basically summarizes the entire discussion.

Okay, we do not know for sure whether xyzzy is innocent, but for right now let's theorize in the instance that he is...

Mac and I were the only two who were directly against voting for him. Mac didn't want to kill off a newbie on Day One and I wanted to give him another chance to show up. I have no regrets about my stance to not lynch him yet, and I still think it was for a good reason.

Legate, however, seemed a bit confused on whether or not to vote for him. He thought about it, but ended up deciding to wait and voted instead for Lommy. After Mithalwen's vote, he again switched back to thinking he should've voted for xyzzy, but by then it was too late. I suppose we could keep an eye on Legate, but I don't think what happened here makes him seriously suspicious. He seems more like an innocent caught in the middle of confusion on who to vote for and feeling a rushed with the deadline only minutes away.

Nogrod was the one who originally came up with the idea to vote xyzzy, and Mithalwen followed in agreement, though she was the only one who ended up voting for him. Now if xyzzy is innocent, then a werewolf Nogrod or Mithalwen, or even both, would knowingly push for the lynching of an innocent, using his absence as an excuse.

If Mithalwen were a wolf, she could play her innocence saying she voted for xyzzy because she was rushed and unsure on who else to vote for, and she'd rather vote for an absent innocent than a present one. Seems like a good excuse...or a credible cover.

Now let's say if Nogrod is a wolf, whether he is one with Mithalwen or not, the most sensible thing for him to do is to separate himself from her and her single vote for xyzzy and vote someone else instead. Now it seems unlikely that a werewolf would send a fellow wolf to his grave, but if Roa is right in her theory, then it makes perfect sense. After all, what better way to lose suspicion than to vote for the werewolf?

If Mithalwen or Nogrod are wolves, then why would Mithalwen vote xyzzy over tgwbs and Nogrod vote Glirdan over Lommy? Of course, the most obvious answer could be that either Lommy or tgwbs are wolves. But then, we also must remember at this time Lommy and tgwbs were tied in votes with Glirdan. If either had voted for one of them, they could've easily helped to seal the fate of an innocent...which could end up directing suspicion towards them.

Alright, I know this is a major theory I have here, and while I may quite possibly be completely off, I still think we should keep it into consideration. It's probably very unlikely that both of them are wolves, though it could happen. If one of them is a wolf, then I think it is more likely to be Mithalwen based on her voting.

I'm still considering Gil and Rikae as slightly suspicious (perhaps this comes from more of a hunch than anything), but since I do not immediately see any major evidence going against them as of right now, and I would like to go to bed, I will not worry about them until later.

EDIT: X-ed with Lommy