Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Brinniel]

As of now, the official voting count looks like this:

tgwbs: 2
Mithalwen: 1
Gil-Galad: 1
Lommy: 1

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong...

Five votes down, seven to go...

I have to run to class right now, but I will be back around an hour before deadline, which should give me enough time to vote.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Here's what I have for Gil-Galad

D1
#5 Two line nonsense.

#31 Suspects Lommy for “defending” Roa. Speculates whether they could be our gifteds. Ends up suspecting them both. A weird post I must say.

#38 Votes for Lommy

#62 Comes back to state his point that if Lommy is a wolf then Roa and The Sixth might be as well and if she is innocent then the two would be innocent as well.

D2
#120 His longest post in ww-history as he said it. And it’s just so weird... First he lists the votes from D1 and says that those who voted for Glirdy tend to be innocent (which is not true or at least anything obvious). He notes that Brinn and Mith voted somewhat strangely.

Then comes this I don’t know what to say about:

another thing that bugs me today, is Macalaures post, is it a conicendence that your inncoent list contains Mith and Sixth, which if i do math again, included your self will equal the remaining wolves? (i'm uncertain right now of how many wolves we have in the vilalge, is it three or four?) if it is indeed only 3 wolves then i will proabaly let this accusation slide.

It is followed by reasoning about Glirdy trying to cover for his mate The Sixth by voting him. But it was that early so would that have been necessary or wise? I don’t think so.

Then his list:

suspicious ~ Lommy, sixth
somewhat suspicious ~ Mithalwen, Macalaure
unsure ~ Tgwbs, Legate,
somewhat innocent ~ Roa, Rikae, Nogrod, Xyzzy

Post ends with a suggestion to vote for The Sixth...

#122 Answers Roa by a counter-attack. Doesn’t think people should be “compassionate” towards newbies. Suggests that if Roa defends The Sixth she might be a wolf defending her mate.

#150 Votes for Mith because Mith tried to cover for Glirdy with her vote on Day1. Which I find an interesting interpretation. Wonders about Lommy defending Roa and then Roa defending Lommy. Thinks tgwbs innocent.

#156 Defends himself against Roa again, quite concernedly. Thinks Lommy and Roa have a tag-team against him, feels cornered by everyone (accuses Roa and Lommy about it).


So what to say of this? I think most of his stated reasons to suspect this or that player are quite bad. But it's hard to read him in the first place. He really manages to puzzle me.

I had some preliminary ideas about him and Lommy being two wolves but I think I need to drop that idea. His insistence on suspecting (and voting) Lommy is not something I'd expect from a lupine Gil - from some others I might expect it though.

The only thing that raises my eyebrows with some real concern is his unexpected activity in this game. It's a good thing, no doubt about that. It just makes me wonder a bit.

I'm less convinced of his lupinity at the moment but would not free him from suspicion either.

Something on Lommy in a minute...

EDIT: X'd with many...

[Nogrod]

I happily noted that Mac had done Lommy for toDay so I can spare myself from writing everything down.

So here's what I have on Lommy D1.

#15 Cool post, defending Roa and Rikae slightly and suspecting Glirdy with reservations. Especially this caught my attention:

Glirdan then... he's the one to turn heads this morning... and for a reason. His jump to support Rikae's feeble-ish accusations so early is like an example from the classic Spot-a-Wolf -book. He seems suspicious to me, yet I wonder if a wolf'd be this... obvious.

Could be read as a wolf-on-wolf suspicion but could be read off quite innocentishly as well.

#17 Makes the case against Glirdy more open:

Yes, Glirdan seems quite taking Rikae's point - which was not an accusation in my opinion - and turning it to an accusation while trying to make it seem that Rikae's with him there... Looks quite bad...

#18 Votes Glirdan with the following explanation:

He looks quite bad. (Though possibly he looks too bad to be a real baddie.)
I must say that the evidence against him is in a way quite feeble (at this phase of the day) - I would love to hear Glirdy explaining his actions or responding to the accusations against him in some way, for one, and it's never wise to judge on the basis of only a few posts - but I'm going to vote him because he simply seems clearly the most suspicious of those who have posted this far.

Her reservations over her vote are perfectly reasonable as there was little to base one’s decision at that time and as an innocent one would be a bit worried about one’s vote. But then again it is easy to see that as a wolf she couldn’t switch from the road she had taken and vote for someone else anymore at that time – and she was in a hurry, innocent or not.


Summa summarum. It's pretty easy to construct two interpretations on Lommy here. In the one she's the reasonable and caring villager who tries to remember every time the best of the village, is careful (to the point of waffling? ) and calm. In the other she's the cunning wolf who exploits her RL-hindrances to the fullest and wears the mask of a reasonable person with little time on her hands. I wouldn't be surprised by either one. She could pull out the tricksery stuff but she could as well be innocent.

I need to find better candidates...

[Nogrod]

And just two small points before I take a short break (I'll be back soon).

Reading Glirdy on the way of looking Lommy and Gil brought these two things forwards...

Glirdy's way of raising suspicions on Roa in #8 speaks to the favour of Roa being innocent.

In #20 he first suspects Lommy and then eats that suspicion and goes for The Sixth. I don't know if this clears The Sixth but I think it's one more small thing that makes me think him innocent. What about Lommy then? If there were reasons to suspect her of wolvery this might add to them but if not... I'm not sure. Just thought it would be good to remind you of these two things.

[Mithalwen]

I am probably being dim but I can't quite see why Lommy is drawing so much suspicion.

I am slo still uneasy about Brinniel's saying she had promised not to vote for Glirdan yesterday then backtracking today to say he was second choice for a vote. Those statements don't square to me but I may be biased becasue she is trying to make a case against me ..however the reasoning for my (allegedly) throwaway vote still stands.......


Legate makes me uneasy too... I think last's endgame is significant but need to take another look.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I will not repeat all the things said on / by tgwbs yesterDay. I just sum up some of the things that bothered me with him yesterDay.

His bogus case on Lommy and insistence to stick with it.

His stated view that we should not use our time discussing the gifteds and his actions of doing mainly that (and thence making it harder to have any other discussion).

All this “trying to look helpful without being helpful” –stuff. It’s all too easy way to throw accusations around when there is no substance. Admittedly he has made quite a row about the possible substance with Roa after these events...


As Rikae and Macalaure pointed out he also said this:

Roa and I are both known for loudmouths, and loudmouths have a thing for calling attention to themselves and getting lynched for no reason.

Pre-emptive lupine defence?

And most importantly his voting which nicely brought Lommy level with a known wolf. Also it felt like a detached vote: an innocent villager would not be ready to vote for a cabable player (and bring her level to share the lead) early in the game with that bad reasons tgwbs presented at the time. Also I got the same vibes from him the last time and he turned out a wolf then.

Then something from toDay.

#142 There is this “anti-waffling” of him... I mean his continued insistence on the interpretation on Lommy’s vote for Glirdy

To me, with hindsight, this looks very much like a wolf-on-wolf vote. Lommy says her evidence is feeble, so she can distance herself from it in the future, but she still manages to vote for a fellow wolf. Saying her evidence is feeble also decreases the potential of the vote becoming a bandwagon.

Lommy’s vote can be constructed both ways but tgwbs decides to be “sure” it is this way. That I find unnerving. Too decisive people are worrysome.

#143 This has all the good reasoning behind it:

I don't think Nogrod is a wolf. If he were, and presuming Lommy to be a wolf too, I think the sensible course of action would be to vote for me so that there would be a 1/3 chance of an innocent dying, rather than 0.

After Brinn had first appreciated Roa’s terribly bad analysis of me and then brought forwards her confusing theory about myself and Mith wishing to lynch Xyzzy because we were wolves (I don’t of course know about Mith but I doubt it) and Mac had also said Roa had good points and even speculated on it, it felt quite good to read these words of reason. But immediately I realised this psychological effect that it had and started to wonder whether that wouldn’t be just the thing a wolf-tgwbs would need to do? Appease some of those who openly suspected him the Day before. I was a good target as there had been some suspicions raised against me on weak grounds and I would then welcome his reasonableness and lower my suspicions... A bit complicated I agree and am not sure what to think of it.

#147 He still only includes interpretations that back his idea of Lommy and Roa being wolves. I don't deny the possibility, not at all, but a decent villager would note that there are other ways of interpreting things that are equally reasonable.

In general I’ll leave the row between tgwbs and Roa be. I see no reason to dwell in it now. But this argument against Roa in #155 needs to be restated just for fun:

I do not need to analyse you, because your unreasonable obstinance on this matter is more than enough to make me confident of your wolvishness.

There is Finnish proverb that talks about a pot blaming a saucepan while they both are black on the sides...

So what to say about all this?

I have all the reasons to suspect tgwbs. More than others at this point I think. But I must admit that I waver again (even waffle? ). It may be just the differences in style or approach too... unlike tgwbs I can’t say I’m sure.

[Nogrod]

Btw. Brinniel, I saw this as I reread the posts.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Now if xyzzy is innocent, then a werewolf Nogrod or Mithalwen, or even both, would knowingly push for the lynching of an innocent, using his absence as an excuse.

Why should a wolf wish to drive openly a lynch of Xyzzy which draws attention? There were three candidates who could realistically be lynched by that time: Glirdy, Lommy and tgwbs. Assuming us the wolves we should have gone for Lommy or tgwbs and that would have been easy taking account of how many suspicions had been raised on them (I had suspected tgwbs already the whole Day). And you can’t say wolf-Nogrod and wolf-Mith didn’t wish to do that because also tgwbs and Lommy were wolves too... That’d make five wolves...


Where is everyone? An hour left!

[Mithalwen]

The only thing I would mention is the point I made about him saying that the wolves forgoing a kill was ridiculous.... if TGWBS is a wolf he has missed a kill.... would he do that to prove a point he had made himself....

But you are right about me not being a wolf Noggie...