Werewolf XXXII: The Lost Age

[The Saucepan Man]

First, at the risk of being accused of being overly defensive ( ), a few points in response to some of the comments made about me yesterDay.

It was said (primarily by Rikae and Nogrod) that my opening words (about the less developed characters always being the ones to be picked off first) came across as defensive and Nogrod also commented on my reference to my sharp wits. I can, however, assure you that those opening words of mine were almost entirely fluff - an attempt at humour (based on horror film cliché) and in-character banter based on my stated character traits.

I was also accused of being overly defensive in my response to Rikae’s suspicion of me. This concerns post #17 in which, knowing that I would not have an opportunity to post much more of substance before the end of the Day, I summarised my thoughts on those who had spoken thus far, based on what they had said. Since Rikae had done little other than accuse me for my opening words at that stage, there was little else to say about her other than in connection with that.

Now, my vote for Kitanna. Unfortunately, as I had anticipated, I returned from searching this place less than an hour before sundown. I reviewed the Day’s events as best I could, but only had time to skim read much of it. When I read them, Kitanna’s confused words concerning the possibility of Vampire Gifteds being able to vote struck me immediately as suspicious. She was either genuinely confused or else a Vampire bluffing so as to give the impression that she couldn’t possibly be a Vampire. Since Kitanna generally knows what’s what and her ancestors have had much experience of Werewolves and the like, the latter struck me as a distinct possibility. I did see that these words of hers generated much debate and actually led the village to be more distrustful of those who accused her on this basis than Kitanna herself. I nevertheless thought it the most suspicious thing that I had seen and so cast my vote for her. I still regard her as a possible fanged wee beastie.

However, when I reviewed the Day’s events in more detail later a few things struck me about Rikae. My original impression was that her behaviour was far too attention grabbing to be Vampiric. However, some points of detail gave me cause to reconsider.

First, her denial of having accused anyone on the basis of in-character banter was in my view somewhat misleading. Not, as Nogrod thought, because of her playful “accusation” of Mac, but because she had expressed suspicion of me based on my opening banter.

Secondly, and of greater concern to me, is her involvement in the Kitanna affair. When Eomer laid his apparent trap with his accusation of Kitanna, she said:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think Eomer has a good point about Kitanna. I can't quite believe she would honestly make the mistake of thinking the gifteds were on the vampires' side. I would be interested in hearing more from her.

This brought her under suspicion for having jumped on Eomer’s unspecified accusation (and thereby fallen into his trap). In response to that suspicion, she said:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I should have said Celuien had a good point.

Yet Celuien only picked up on the Kitanna thing after Rikae had already done so. So how could Rikae have been responding to Celuien’s point when Celuien had not even made her point at that stage? Now, Rikae would have known that it was not Celuien’s contribution that prompted her accusation of Kitanna and, if innocent, would surely not have lied about this. It looks to me distinctly like a Vampiric slip.

But can both Kitanna and Rikae be Vampires? Would Rikae have jumped so enthusiastically on an acccusation of a fellow Vampire? I do not discount the possibility, especially as Rikae “laid her cards on the table” shortly thereafter and said that she was leaning towards giving Kitanna the benefit of the doubt. I am, however, currently more concerned about Rikae than Kitanna.

Finally, in this lengthy discourse, some comments on the “voting”. The stated votes were as follows:

Celuien: Kitanna (Kitanna 1)
Menel: Rikae (Kitanna 1, Rikae 1)
Sixth: Gil (Kitanna 1, Rikae 1, Gil 1)
Gil: Rikae (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1)
Legate: Sixth (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1)
Rune: Menel (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 1)
Rikae: Menel (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2)
Boro: Legate (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 1)
Lomiella: Celuien (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 1, Celuien 1)
Eomer: Celuien (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 1, Celuien 2)
Roa: Celuien (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 1, Celuien 3)
Aganzir: Celuien (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 1, Celuien 4)
Brinniel: Rikae (Kitanna 1, Rikae 3, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 1, Celuien 4)
Nogrod: Legate (Kitanna 1, Rikae 3, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 2, Celuien 4)
SPM: Kitanna (Kitanna 2, Rikae 3, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 2, Celuien 4)

No vote stated: Xyzzy, Mac, Di, Shasta, Kitanna, Sleepy, Durelin, Glirdy

At least four of those who stated no vote are innocent. I would therefore ask all of those who did not state a vote here yesterDay to state now whether they submitted a vote to the Oracle or not and, if so, what it was (it would have been helpful to do this before Eomer revealed the number of votes actually cast for Celuien, but you can’t have everything ). I would also ask those who expressed no view on the proposal to state votes here (Xyzzy, Shasta, Sleepy, Durelin and Glirdy) to say now whether they support it or not and to confirm that they will state their votes here in the future. And, as for those who opposed the idea (Di and Kitanna), I would ask them to explain how on earth they consider it to be in the village’s interests not to state their votes.

Now, some thoughts on the “voting”. Given that (assuming that the Lynch Seer survives the Night and is innocent) the number of votes cast for the lynchee will be known, I would expect Vampires to avoid “voting” for someone who looks likely to be lynched. This, to my mind, speaks in favour of those who “voted” for Celuien, since she looked quite likely to be lynched even before the “votes” for her were posted, namely Lomiella, Eomer, Roa and Aganzir. It also speaks slightly in favour of those who “voted” for Rikae at a time when it looked quite possible that she might be lynched, namely Gil (and Brinniel, but she’s now dead). It is also fair to say that Rikae’s “vote” for Menel, putting him equal with her on two “votes”, might be regarded as risky for a Vampire, though my current suspicion of her outweighs this.

The most suspicious “votes” (other than the “no votes”) are surely those cast for people who looked very unlikely to be lynched at the time that they were “cast”, namely those stated by Legate, Nogrod and (erm) me.

I’m off to consider the significance of last Night's events. More shortly.

[Macalaure]

Even though I missed the deadline to state it, I did manage to vote.

I voted for Legate.

[Sleepy Ranger]

I had voted for Rune, it was a vote made at complete random mainly due to my inability to be on the computer much that day. Anyway, now that the weekend is here (mind you, my weekends are Friday and Saturday) I'll have time. Anyway, I'm off to go over all said and done. Post back in a bit.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Point taken SPM. However, I do think it unlikely that a vampire will claim to have voted privately for Celuien. If there's a lie then the person who truly did vote for her will jump right up and the village has a vampire in the bag. So it is difficult to fully trust one of these private voters but surely the risk of lying here is very great.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

hmmm I suppose I should join the rest of you in pointing out that Brinn probably was chosen because she had little chance to be online yesterday. . .Too bad she was killed before she got a chance to participate.

anyways I have a sugestion for a small debate we could have if we run out of fun subjects. . . We could talk about The Lynch Seer and what our individuel thoughts on a good stradegy is!

Now I must disapear out of sight once more and leave the fighting and arguing to the rest of you for a while, enjoy!

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, I'm probably not going to be posting for a large chunk of the Day, so I might as well say something here.

Rikae is still my primary suspect.

Celuien's death was probably due to Vampirish influence. Even though the Vampires can't vote, they probably contributed to the lynching. All four vote declarations for Celuien occurred in rapid succession, which seems quite odd to me. As I read through the discussion of Celuien, I find Boromir88 to present a suspicious look. For the most part, Celuien's vote decision seemed to grow out of an understandable controversy over Kitanna, but Boromir88 quietly started to point at Celuien's vote to suggest that the latter was a Vampire. Eomer of the Rohirrim also seems to have suggested that Celuien may be up to something while at the same time suspecting Kitanna of being a vampire. So I'll be looking at both of them.

In any case, my suspects are Rikae, Boromir88, and [B]Eomer of the Rohirrim at this point.

[Rikae]

Rikae sighed and sagged against the wall of the nearest building. Her careless mistakes would doubtless cost her life; and though she didn't fear death, she was filled with regret for the help she would be unable to offer the village.

Originally Posted by SPM

Yet Celuien only picked up on the Kitanna thing after Rikae had already done so. So how could Rikae have been responding to Celuien’s point when Celuien had not even made her point at that stage? Now, Rikae would have known that it was not Celuien’s contribution that prompted her accusation of Kitanna and, if innocent, would surely not have lied about this. It looks to me distinctly like a Vampiric slip.

"I'll just be absolutely honest here, make of that what you will. When I read Eomer's comment on Kitanna, I looked back at her post to see what it was she was doing, and immediately saw that she was casting doubt on the theory that no villager would lie about their vote. I assumed this was Eomer's point and responded accordingly.
When Eomer claimed to have had no point, I remembered Celuien had articulated the same thing and, forgetting I came to the conclusion independantly of her, said it was her point.
You'll note that both Celuien and I noticed the same oddity about Kitanna's post independantly of each other, and in Cel's case, independantly of Eomer. It would seem that whatever his wolf-trapping intentions may have been, he chose a genuinely odd-looking post to indicate. You be the judge whether there was anything eyebrow raising about Kitanna's post in it's own right...like I said, I'm more inclined to think it's an innocent mistake, but there the possibility of something more sinister.

I think it might be a good idea to look at those who did not post their votes yesterday. We had discussed the importance of revealing our votes at great length, and while RL can intervene, any well-meaning villager should be willing to post his or her vote if humanly possible. Those who didn't post are:
Xyzzy
Mac
Di
Shasta
Kitanna
Sleepy
Durelin
Glirdy

Mac had a RL excuse, and I feel very strongly that he is innocent. Sleepy blatently stated he wouldn't participate yesterday; I certainly hope he's willing to step forward and be scrutenized with the rest of us today.
Di, Durelin and Kitanna worry me; they should have posted, I would think. Kitanna, of course, actually argued against revealing votes. But I would really like to see explanations from all the non-vote-posters, and it's my opinion that anyone not stating a vote today should be considered highly suspicious."

Rikae put her hand to her forehead (Durelin's avvie style) and frowned.

"I'm not saying we shouldn't look at the vote-posters as well. A sensible vampire would most likely post a vote for an unlikely lynchee...those votes wouldn't be revealed."

She looked pointedly at Legate, than sank to the ground and stared sadly into the fire.

EDIT: X'd with Durelin and SPM

[The Saucepan Man]

As far as I can see, there were two who expressed suspicion of Celuien (based on her Kitanna vote) but did not actually end up stating a vote: Nogrod and Boro. Nogrod, in particular, stated (in #103) that she might receive his vote, but he ended up voting for Legate – after it became clear that Celuien was very likely to be lynched. If there was Vampiric influence in the lynching of Cel, he would be my pick.

Originally Posted by Rikae

When Eomer claimed to have had no point, I remembered Celuien had articulated the same thing and, forgetting I came to the conclusion independantly of her, said it was her point.

Hmm, I find it highly unlikely that anyone (or anyone innocent, at least) would form a view independently and then forget that they had done so and attribute it to someone else who had expressed the same view subsequently. You're not looing good to me Rikae.

Originally Posted by Rikae

But I would really like to see explanations from all the non-vote-posters, and it's my opinion that anyone not stating a vote today should be considered highly suspicious.

With this I agree, but I am certainly not taking my eye off you.

While I do have some concerns over those who did not express a vote, and particularly those who challenged the proposal to do so, the question does arise as to how a Vampire might best have responded to my proposal. To have refused to go along with it might be thought of as unnecessarily risky for a Vampire, particularly as it received so much support. Still, as I said earlier, I think that those who have either not expressed a view, or who objected to it, should now explain themelves.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by me

As far as I can see, there were two who expressed suspicion of Celuien (based on her Kitanna vote) but did not actually end up stating a vote: Nogrod and Boro.

To clarify, by this I meant that they did not end up stating a vote for Celuien.

[Meneltarmacil]

Actually, Saucepan, both Nogrod and Boro expressed suspicion of Celuien yet stated that their votes were for Legate. I'm not sure exactly why they would try such similar tactics, but it would fit with a quiet suggestion that influences the voting yet doesn't directly implicate them. Both Nogrod and Boromir88 are smart enough to have thought of using such subtle tactics, so I think at least one of them is likely a Vampire.

[Durelin]

I think looking at the no/undeclared-voters is a waste of time. The vampires, unless they had absolutely no time at all, likely would have posted some kind of vote so they could avoid scrutiny, even if it was just a "random" one. They don't have to worry about who they vote for in the same sense as an innocent does because their votes don't count. As long as they stick some sort of inconspicuous vote in, it's no big deal at this point. Their vote doesn't actually count, and there's too many people for their vote to necessarily be picked out...not anymore than anyone else's vote, really.

Well, unless a vampire's already messed up. The person who looks right now like they're a vampire who's messed up with Shasta, but I'm not jumping on that quite yet.

I wish I had more time to go over the thread. Sorry, doing my best to keep up, but right now I haven't read enough to point out anyone in particular. Except - Sauce, you sound like Nogrod.

[Diamond18]

Wee, I'm here. Aren't you all lucky.

I see there's been a bit of clamoring for outing of votes. I didn't feel like stating my vote for a variety of reasons yesterday... for one, I suppose I find it rather boring to thwart the innovation of secret votes and just play like usual. Pure cantakerousness. For twice, I had no good reason to vote for the person I voted for and it annoyed me: but since I had to vote quite early in the day and there was virtually nothing posted besides lots and lots of in character stuff, I went with shoddy reasoning. I didn't want to draw attention to my very lame participation, which I suppose is a vampirish tactic but also the tactic of an innocent who figures begging to be lynched isn't the best way to help the village, either. I'll leave you to decide which you think I am.

I voted for Legate yesterday. I figured the devil you know is better than the one you don't so I decided to go with either Sixth, Agnazir, Xzzy, Legate, or Rikae, all players whom I haven't not played with and therefore have no real feel for their playing styles.

Anyway, there you go. I'm in a rather annoyed state at the moment as when I signed up for the game I had internet at home and have since lost it, so unfortunately I have to read through reams of posts at once and then try and make something of it all without the luxury of analysis or re-reading or pattern-finding. Nothing says anything to me on first read-through. So I really am the most useless werewolf player unless I have lots of time at my disposal. Which I thought I was going to have, but don't *kicks things in a snit* *whines at length*

Which brings me to this: I have to vote now. I'll go with Nogrod.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Actually, Saucepan, both Nogrod and Boro expressed suspicion of Celuien yet stated that their votes were for Legate. I'm not sure exactly why they would try such similar tactics, but it would fit with a quiet suggestion that influences the voting yet doesn't directly implicate them. Both Nogrod and Boromir88 are smart enough to have thought of using such subtle tactics, so I think at least one of them is likely a Vampire.

Originally Posted by Boro's signature

For your health, and my sanity, please read through the entire thread.

Just couldn't resist this quote Menel.

But it seems that either you are forcefully making bad points as you're a vampire or... But really. Now state me one believable reason why two Vampires would wish to make such an appearance! You said you think us to be smart enough. But that kind of action would be just stupid. Cel was innocent as we now know, now isn't she? So why the "we" (like we had a common consent on this!) should not be happy with that if we were vampires? Being concerned enough to make last minute changes according to f.ex. saving those one thinks innocent speaks more often than not of sincerity and a trial to look at the good of us all rather than wolvery (vampiery?). The wolves have a pretty easy Day1 anyhow. So why would they bother?

But I'm not sure if you Menel just abandon your reason after the first move or whether you're evil...

Another thing as well.

Killing Brinniel. I think it was a work of at least one dominating and active vampire or a teamwork of several of them. And they have laudable gaming-ethics as well.

Some of my ancetors have fallen to the evil and they have encountered very different baddies. There are different things that make up reasons for the kill at Night. If someone looks seerish, if someone is too close to the truth / or vice versa etc... But when there is no clear-cut decision then according to my family-lore there could be said being two kinds of baddies. Those insecurer ones who wish to kill the "good players" (active / influential /smart, whatever) first as to minimize their influence on their game. And then there are the "good sports" who wish for an enjoyable game with opponents who can fight back and thence leave them alone in the first Nights.

Now I think killing Brinniel was a kind of a "safe" kill from the last category. That means that at least one of our Vampires is an ethically high-level player with some confidence.

I don't think I need to make a list here...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shanta

I'd just like to point out that we've discussed this, Rikae did not accuse anyone based on banter.

I refer the honourable gentleman to my post #144

Shasta, why the defensiveness over Rikae? Surely it's not as simple as Rikae, Nogrod and Shasta ...?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Shasta, why the defensiveness over Rikae? Surely it's not as simple as Rikae, Nogrod and Shasta ...?

A good point. Although the trhreesome is wrong anyways.

And as you're not to believe my word on it (now why would you?) just ask yourself the question would anyone sane enough speak and act (=vote) like I have done if I were a Vampire? There are so many easier ways to accomplish the thing...

Should I make the list now? Maybe I should. Just a moment...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't think I'm being overly defensive, when the only evidence against Rikae is overshadowed by better evidence on other people.

Besides, I like her username. :P

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Though, I just realized...how do we know there should have been 5 votes for Celuien?

Eomer, the Lynch Seer last Night, stated that Celuien had five votes. Although I do not discount the possibility that he was lying (and thus Vampiric), I am at a loss to see what good would it do him (if a Vampire) to paint an innocent's vote as a lie.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And as you're not to believe my word on it (now why would you?) just ask yourself the question would anyone sane enough speak and act (=vote) like I have done if I were a Vampire?

Quite honestly, yes. Taking into account the circumstances prevailing when you stated your vote, a claimed vote for Legate was a "safe" one at the time claimed.

Originally Posted by Noggers

Should I make the list now? Maybe I should. Just a moment...

I look forward to it ...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by SPM

Hmm, I find it highly unlikely that anyone (or anyone innocent, at least) would form a view independently and then forget that they had done so and attribute it to someone else who had expressed the same view subsequently. You're not looing good to me Rikae.

I was operating under the assumption it was Eomer's point, not mine. When he said he had no point, it became Celuien's point in my mind; I never considered it my own, and honestly, I forgot that Celuien posted after me - I only remembered that she also agreed with the point I thought Eomer was making. I had to go back and look today to see who actually posted first.

[The Saucepan Man]

Keep digging, Rikae ...

[Rikae]

How so? I'm becoming more and more suspicious of you, now. What is this? Everyone else can make mistakes but me? I'm afraid I'm just as fallible as the rest of us...

[Nogrod]

Just a few things to begin with (and then I'm off to cook some food to Lommy & myself - and yes, we will be sharing the computer on this Day2).

I think Spm had a point in saying:

Originally Posted by Spm

The most suspicious “votes” (other than the “no votes”) are surely those cast for people who looked very unlikely to be lynched at the time that they were “cast”, namely those stated by Legate, Nogrod and (erm) me.

I will also be looking at the non-declared-voters toDay as I find the plan to reveal our votes the best one we have. The end of yesterDay was just a plain disaster. Those of us who were online at the last moments had no clear idea who was getting the votes in the first place as so many votes were undeclared. So we were just shooting in the dark. Let's not make that happen a second time.

I thought Celuien's attack on Kitanna was quite vampirish (she tried to come up with a reason to a fake vote) and I was quite ready to vote for her... until this one came about (there were stuff before this but this one made me think it again...

Originally Posted by Celuien in #122

I apologize if I didn't explain that enough before. It's a result of trying to run out the door to get to work in the morning and also trying to fit some sleep in between getting home from work and going back in the morning.

This game in the meta-level is about trust anyhow. Not trusting any of you others with what you say in-game, but trust on the explanations given when they involve RL. Anyone could PM her/his friend at anytime, anyone could say s/he has RL problems when s/he thinks s/he's under too hot suspicions, whatever. So I do categorically terust RL explanations (like Sleepy yesterDay - as soon as I saw his post in the admin threwad I decided not to pursue his pretty blatant post any more that Day).

So what Cel here said looked to me basically that she was having a rushed day and needed to stick to any good idea she could form - and we don't know as yet whether she was right with it. She might as well be. Spm's discussion about Kitanna being quite knowledgeable kind of made me rethnik the issue...

But I couldn't vote for Cel after that message she sent and we had twenty minutes to go. And as I said, with no cue whatsoever about who was going to get lynched. It was a disastrous situation...

But referring to Spm's point then. I know myself to be innocent so Spm and Legate I would like to look another time toDay as well. But as I said already, my first interest (at least now) is the "non-revealers"... and of course the few of you I suspected already yesterDay.
-----
But the more important point then.

Please make your votes known toDay!

I don't wish to see another Day with this little clues from the voting. That tally helps us. Just believe it and act on it.

Although it's not so straightforward as some here have stated - I mean the reading of those results. But anyhow. It's the best "quasi-fact" we might have.