Werewolf XXXII: The Lost Age

[The Saucepan Man]

As far as I can see, there were two who expressed suspicion of Celuien (based on her Kitanna vote) but did not actually end up stating a vote: Nogrod and Boro. Nogrod, in particular, stated (in #103) that she might receive his vote, but he ended up voting for Legate – after it became clear that Celuien was very likely to be lynched. If there was Vampiric influence in the lynching of Cel, he would be my pick.

Originally Posted by Rikae

When Eomer claimed to have had no point, I remembered Celuien had articulated the same thing and, forgetting I came to the conclusion independantly of her, said it was her point.

Hmm, I find it highly unlikely that anyone (or anyone innocent, at least) would form a view independently and then forget that they had done so and attribute it to someone else who had expressed the same view subsequently. You're not looing good to me Rikae.

Originally Posted by Rikae

But I would really like to see explanations from all the non-vote-posters, and it's my opinion that anyone not stating a vote today should be considered highly suspicious.

With this I agree, but I am certainly not taking my eye off you.

While I do have some concerns over those who did not express a vote, and particularly those who challenged the proposal to do so, the question does arise as to how a Vampire might best have responded to my proposal. To have refused to go along with it might be thought of as unnecessarily risky for a Vampire, particularly as it received so much support. Still, as I said earlier, I think that those who have either not expressed a view, or who objected to it, should now explain themelves.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by me

As far as I can see, there were two who expressed suspicion of Celuien (based on her Kitanna vote) but did not actually end up stating a vote: Nogrod and Boro.

To clarify, by this I meant that they did not end up stating a vote for Celuien.

[Meneltarmacil]

Actually, Saucepan, both Nogrod and Boro expressed suspicion of Celuien yet stated that their votes were for Legate. I'm not sure exactly why they would try such similar tactics, but it would fit with a quiet suggestion that influences the voting yet doesn't directly implicate them. Both Nogrod and Boromir88 are smart enough to have thought of using such subtle tactics, so I think at least one of them is likely a Vampire.

[Durelin]

I think looking at the no/undeclared-voters is a waste of time. The vampires, unless they had absolutely no time at all, likely would have posted some kind of vote so they could avoid scrutiny, even if it was just a "random" one. They don't have to worry about who they vote for in the same sense as an innocent does because their votes don't count. As long as they stick some sort of inconspicuous vote in, it's no big deal at this point. Their vote doesn't actually count, and there's too many people for their vote to necessarily be picked out...not anymore than anyone else's vote, really.

Well, unless a vampire's already messed up. The person who looks right now like they're a vampire who's messed up with Shasta, but I'm not jumping on that quite yet.

I wish I had more time to go over the thread. Sorry, doing my best to keep up, but right now I haven't read enough to point out anyone in particular. Except - Sauce, you sound like Nogrod.

[Durelin]

Ooh, something just caught my eye. Double-posting because...I can? *shrugs*

Originally Posted by xyzzy

Hmm... From post #149, I'm quite supicious of Rune. The wording seems to suggest secrecy. An innocent should never try to remain out of sight, and Rune seemed tio be saying he was doing just that.

So I will vote for Rune.

Yesterday, I voted before there was any real info, and I voted for Lommy.

He's voting for Rune for seeming secretive, and yet he didn't bother to tell anyone who he voted for yesterDay? Now, I completely understand if he didn't have time to post, but he said himself that he voted early. It seems we have a Hypocrites on our hands. Hypocrisy?! Duplicity?! Shocking.

[Diamond18]

Wee, I'm here. Aren't you all lucky.

I see there's been a bit of clamoring for outing of votes. I didn't feel like stating my vote for a variety of reasons yesterday... for one, I suppose I find it rather boring to thwart the innovation of secret votes and just play like usual. Pure cantakerousness. For twice, I had no good reason to vote for the person I voted for and it annoyed me: but since I had to vote quite early in the day and there was virtually nothing posted besides lots and lots of in character stuff, I went with shoddy reasoning. I didn't want to draw attention to my very lame participation, which I suppose is a vampirish tactic but also the tactic of an innocent who figures begging to be lynched isn't the best way to help the village, either. I'll leave you to decide which you think I am.

I voted for Legate yesterday. I figured the devil you know is better than the one you don't so I decided to go with either Sixth, Agnazir, Xzzy, Legate, or Rikae, all players whom I haven't not played with and therefore have no real feel for their playing styles.

Anyway, there you go. I'm in a rather annoyed state at the moment as when I signed up for the game I had internet at home and have since lost it, so unfortunately I have to read through reams of posts at once and then try and make something of it all without the luxury of analysis or re-reading or pattern-finding. Nothing says anything to me on first read-through. So I really am the most useless werewolf player unless I have lots of time at my disposal. Which I thought I was going to have, but don't *kicks things in a snit* *whines at length*

Which brings me to this: I have to vote now. I'll go with Nogrod.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Actually, Saucepan, both Nogrod and Boro expressed suspicion of Celuien yet stated that their votes were for Legate. I'm not sure exactly why they would try such similar tactics, but it would fit with a quiet suggestion that influences the voting yet doesn't directly implicate them. Both Nogrod and Boromir88 are smart enough to have thought of using such subtle tactics, so I think at least one of them is likely a Vampire.

Originally Posted by Boro's signature

For your health, and my sanity, please read through the entire thread.

Just couldn't resist this quote Menel.

But it seems that either you are forcefully making bad points as you're a vampire or... But really. Now state me one believable reason why two Vampires would wish to make such an appearance! You said you think us to be smart enough. But that kind of action would be just stupid. Cel was innocent as we now know, now isn't she? So why the "we" (like we had a common consent on this!) should not be happy with that if we were vampires? Being concerned enough to make last minute changes according to f.ex. saving those one thinks innocent speaks more often than not of sincerity and a trial to look at the good of us all rather than wolvery (vampiery?). The wolves have a pretty easy Day1 anyhow. So why would they bother?

But I'm not sure if you Menel just abandon your reason after the first move or whether you're evil...

Another thing as well.

Killing Brinniel. I think it was a work of at least one dominating and active vampire or a teamwork of several of them. And they have laudable gaming-ethics as well.

Some of my ancetors have fallen to the evil and they have encountered very different baddies. There are different things that make up reasons for the kill at Night. If someone looks seerish, if someone is too close to the truth / or vice versa etc... But when there is no clear-cut decision then according to my family-lore there could be said being two kinds of baddies. Those insecurer ones who wish to kill the "good players" (active / influential /smart, whatever) first as to minimize their influence on their game. And then there are the "good sports" who wish for an enjoyable game with opponents who can fight back and thence leave them alone in the first Nights.

Now I think killing Brinniel was a kind of a "safe" kill from the last category. That means that at least one of our Vampires is an ethically high-level player with some confidence.

I don't think I need to make a list here...

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now I think killing Brinniel was a kind of a "safe" kill from the last category. That means that at least one of our Vampires is an ethically high-level player with some confidence.

I don't think I need to make a list here...

Please do...

and i did state at begining of the day that Brinniel was a safe kill and the vampires are playing low for a little bit... hopefully we can pin em down


also, i just realized that sixth voted for me last day,i must read back and find out why he did...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Ooc: Since I can't find a way to put this in roleplay for, you get it out of context. :P

Okay, first of all. My last post of yesterday was during my fifth class of the school day. After school, I went to work, did not get home for another five and a half hours, by which time night had started, which is why I did not get a chance to vote, since I usually leave my votes until close to the last second, to accomodate any evidence that might show up. I did not vote yesterday.

My first post today was at college, and I didn't say who I voted for because it didn't occur to me to tell you, honestly. I don't mind saying who I vote for; I had other things on my mind, it simply did not occur to me to say who I voted for.

Same with Legate. I'll explain this momentarily as my library computer time is almost up and the computer's about to self-restart, so I'll edit this in a sec.

Okay, back. Quite simply, I forgot that Legate had been under suspicion yesterday. I've had RL stuff (actually, I've been Prom-crastinating; it's tomorrow, and just today I got a date, tux, flowers, etc. Go me. ) and honestly haven't read the thread that thoroughly, although I have about three hours to kill here at the library, so it's on my list of things to do.

Edit: x'd with Gil's post.

[Diamond18]

Bah, this is why I destest explaining myself, I invariably get called things like dumb and confused. Which isn't altogether untrue. But still. I'm one of those players who gets more and more suspicious the more and more I talk. If you must know, I went with Nogrod because he's on that list he himself needn't make.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Bah, this is why I destest explaining myself, I invariably get called things like dumb and confused. Which isn't altogether untrue. But still. I'm one of those players who gets more and more suspicious the more and more I talk. If you must know, I went with Nogrod because he's on that list he himself needn't make.

so it was his post of making a list of high-leveled players... so you vote againest nogrod by using his own method... interesting... i'll probably end up giving you the benefit of the doubt for now

my attentions are moving towards the shasta/legate pair we have going... and still Rikae, who is acting weirder then usual...

edit:xed with Esspiem! you have your first triangle now... even though it involves me, nogrod and you... hearts are to be broken thats for sure...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shanta

I'd just like to point out that we've discussed this, Rikae did not accuse anyone based on banter.

I refer the honourable gentleman to my post #144

Shasta, why the defensiveness over Rikae? Surely it's not as simple as Rikae, Nogrod and Shasta ...?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Shasta, why the defensiveness over Rikae? Surely it's not as simple as Rikae, Nogrod and Shasta ...?

A good point. Although the trhreesome is wrong anyways.

And as you're not to believe my word on it (now why would you?) just ask yourself the question would anyone sane enough speak and act (=vote) like I have done if I were a Vampire? There are so many easier ways to accomplish the thing...

Should I make the list now? Maybe I should. Just a moment...

[Nogrod]

I suspect: Rikae, Legate, Lommy

Uneasy about: Kitanna

I do not trust but think they might be innocent: Spm & Roa

I feel innocent: Mac & Boro

Tend to see as innocents: Durelin, Diamond, Aganzir

Am wary about with no proof or a case: Gil-Galad , Shastanis Althreduin, Eomer of the Rohirrim. Meneltarmacil, The Sixth Wizard

The too obvious shade: Rune Son of Bjarne should be dealt with later...

The enigmas who don't seem to wish to help: Xyzzy, Slepy, Glirdy.

[The Saucepan Man]

Reasons, my dear Noggins?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Reasons, my dear Noggins?

Oh my. It's almost four AM here... well I see what I can do... but do not wait for any full analyses on 21 people right now...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't think I'm being overly defensive, when the only evidence against Rikae is overshadowed by better evidence on other people.

Besides, I like her username. :P

[Kitanna]

So, I don't have as much time as I would like. And I will most likely be sleeping when Day ends so I'm going to e-mail my vote soon. At the moment it looks like I'll be voting for Rikae because I've had a chance to look at her better than anyone else.
I don't like the feeling of her points about Eomer from yesterday. And her jumpiness from yesterday makes me worried. So I will most likely vote Rikae, but if I find something while reading and I change, I'll post here.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Though, I just realized...how do we know there should have been 5 votes for Celuien?

Eomer, the Lynch Seer last Night, stated that Celuien had five votes. Although I do not discount the possibility that he was lying (and thus Vampiric), I am at a loss to see what good would it do him (if a Vampire) to paint an innocent's vote as a lie.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And as you're not to believe my word on it (now why would you?) just ask yourself the question would anyone sane enough speak and act (=vote) like I have done if I were a Vampire?

Quite honestly, yes. Taking into account the circumstances prevailing when you stated your vote, a claimed vote for Legate was a "safe" one at the time claimed.

Originally Posted by Noggers

Should I make the list now? Maybe I should. Just a moment...

I look forward to it ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shasta

I don't think I'm being overly defensive, when the only evidence against Rikae is overshadowed by better evidence on other people.

So you really think that, having picked up on Eomer's accusation of Kitanna, she suddenly forgot that it was Eomer's point that had prompted this and innocently convinced herself that it was Celuien's (subsequent) post that had prompted it instead?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Noggeridoodah

Although the trhreesome is wrong anyways.

Ah, but since Durelin accused me of posting like you, I had to come up with a triangulation ...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I kind of see it along the lines of something I actually did a while back... I was typing some evidence or something, and meant to type Nogrod... but on the screen, I had a post of Thinlo's that I was looking at, and I typed Thinlo's name instead of Nogrod... isn't that the kind of slip Rikae's claiming? If not, I may have misunderstood...

[Roa_Aoife]

You know, Nogrod, I really wouldn't have pressed the whole thing if you hadn't kept bringing it up. But since you insist:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I hadn't any case against Rikae yesterday (RL).

Is that so? Post #42 mentions Rikae in almost every sentence, and though you don't state at first that she's acting strangely, it bears the distinct marks of a lawyer slowly building up to a direct accusation, which in fact, the post does. Here are some excerpts:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

she also came quite close to lying - basically she did it. That's always pretty suspicious.

The point that follows this is Rikae bantering IN CHARACTER with Mac. You even admit that this is the case, yet you still accuse her of lying.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Her suspicion on Gil seems even stranger. Gil suspects her to be sure but retaliation isn't the way a smart villager would react - and Rikae surely is smart. She says:

You then quote Rikae stating that Gil is the one accusing people based on in-characterness. You also state that Gil had been doing no such thing, when his very accusation of Rikae is doing just that. Again you accuse her of lying when she is not.

Also, I find it interesting that you say "retaliation isn't the way a smart villager would react" when you seem quite insistent on suspecting those who suspect you. (Myself, SPM, and some others)

Then:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I wouldn't like to lose Rikae either, but would be very interested in hearing some explanations on why she downright lied to us...

"Downright lied"? If this isn't a case, I don't know what is. You are the only one lying here, Nogrod.

Originally Posted by Durelin

You know, this whole the vampires don't get to vote thing really isn't an advantage to the villagers. It might be a little bit of a disadvantage for the vampires, but at the same time it helps keep them extremely clean - we can't really get much dirt on them based on their votes, because they're not really voting. About the only warning signs we'd get is if the stated votes added up give a different result than the kill, and the chances of that happening at this point are very slim. And still then we'd only know that there's almost definitely a vampire in a certain voting group....

This post bothers me. The bolded points are misinformation about our voting situation, and they look designed to discourage revealing our votes, without blatantly doing so.
The Vampires not voting is an advantage for the village- they can't vote to save each other, and they can't force the lynch of an innocent.

If everyone states their votes, we can get dirt on the vampires. We'd have their "cases" and the knowledge of who they claimed to vote for, and when they claimed to do so.

We wouldn't just have the chance that the votes don't add up, which is not as slim as this post made it sound, but we also have the times when they add up. And further more, we can look at those who consistently do not vote for the Lynchee, especially those you vote at the end when it's fairly obvious who will be lynched.

As for the last one, we'd have more knowledge from that than we would in a game where the vampires can vote. In those games, we only have a best guess for which voting group the werewolves are hiding in. Further more, by cross referencing with groups where things did add up, we can start eliminating names.

Originally Posted by durelin

I didn't state my vote because I didn't vote.

Care to explain why?

Originally Posted by durelin

Of course there's no way to prove that.

Well, there's one way....

Originally Posted by Nogrod

One could look at this differently as well. At least I think I acted reasonably by withholding my vote on Celuien - which I was going to make - as she was able to post her RL reasons for her incomplete reasoning on her vote which made me to back off from voting her. Sadly it came only twenty minutes before the deadline and so we were in too much a hurry there anyway.

This is a fair point, but I would like to reiterate that people who consistently wait till the last minute and vote for an unlikely lynchee should be looked at very closely.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean it's quite frustrating when people make points on poor grounds

That's funny coming from you.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So think people, think yourselves. Why would someone do something?

You mean like, "Why would someone encourage others to not listen to the people who have cases against him?"

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Rikae I'm pretty wary about as well as Gil (so much that I love his new style!). And the newbie-stauts notwithstanding Shasta looks pretty suspicious too...

Why Gil, so suddenly? And isn't convenient that you are suddenly suspicious of Shasta (who is being much more reasonable today) when he just stated that your points against Rikae made you look suspicious?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I hadn't quite made a closer look at you Lommy before this - okay, 23 people to begin with - but this looks pretty bad. So you kind of wish to say that I'm suspicious because I make a suggestion of looking at another direction for a while but you still manage to pick a few from my list to look after as well...

And again you suspect someone who supects you!

Originally Posted by SPM

Rikae: .... Accusing people based on banter

I hate to nitpick, but as I've just been explaining this to Nogrod, I feel I have to remind you that Rikae's only "accusation" based on incharacterness was also incharacter, and therefor not an accusation at all. All the mis-information floating in this thread is really worrisome.

I'll be back in a little bit with another post.

EDIT:Cross posted with alot

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by SPM

Hmm, I find it highly unlikely that anyone (or anyone innocent, at least) would form a view independently and then forget that they had done so and attribute it to someone else who had expressed the same view subsequently. You're not looing good to me Rikae.

I was operating under the assumption it was Eomer's point, not mine. When he said he had no point, it became Celuien's point in my mind; I never considered it my own, and honestly, I forgot that Celuien posted after me - I only remembered that she also agreed with the point I thought Eomer was making. I had to go back and look today to see who actually posted first.

[The Saucepan Man]

Keep digging, Rikae ...

[Rikae]

How so? I'm becoming more and more suspicious of you, now. What is this? Everyone else can make mistakes but me? I'm afraid I'm just as fallible as the rest of us...

[xyzzy]

Hmm... From post #149, I'm quite supicious of Rune. The wording seems to suggest secrecy. An innocent should never try to remain out of sight, and Rune seemed tio be saying he was doing just that.

So I will vote for Rune.

Yesterday, I voted before there was any real info, and I voted for Lommy.

I'm only mildly suspicious of Rikae, but perhaps the seer could decide for us...

[Nogrod]

Just a few things to begin with (and then I'm off to cook some food to Lommy & myself - and yes, we will be sharing the computer on this Day2).

I think Spm had a point in saying:

Originally Posted by Spm

The most suspicious “votes” (other than the “no votes”) are surely those cast for people who looked very unlikely to be lynched at the time that they were “cast”, namely those stated by Legate, Nogrod and (erm) me.

I will also be looking at the non-declared-voters toDay as I find the plan to reveal our votes the best one we have. The end of yesterDay was just a plain disaster. Those of us who were online at the last moments had no clear idea who was getting the votes in the first place as so many votes were undeclared. So we were just shooting in the dark. Let's not make that happen a second time.

I thought Celuien's attack on Kitanna was quite vampirish (she tried to come up with a reason to a fake vote) and I was quite ready to vote for her... until this one came about (there were stuff before this but this one made me think it again...

Originally Posted by Celuien in #122

I apologize if I didn't explain that enough before. It's a result of trying to run out the door to get to work in the morning and also trying to fit some sleep in between getting home from work and going back in the morning.

This game in the meta-level is about trust anyhow. Not trusting any of you others with what you say in-game, but trust on the explanations given when they involve RL. Anyone could PM her/his friend at anytime, anyone could say s/he has RL problems when s/he thinks s/he's under too hot suspicions, whatever. So I do categorically terust RL explanations (like Sleepy yesterDay - as soon as I saw his post in the admin threwad I decided not to pursue his pretty blatant post any more that Day).

So what Cel here said looked to me basically that she was having a rushed day and needed to stick to any good idea she could form - and we don't know as yet whether she was right with it. She might as well be. Spm's discussion about Kitanna being quite knowledgeable kind of made me rethnik the issue...

But I couldn't vote for Cel after that message she sent and we had twenty minutes to go. And as I said, with no cue whatsoever about who was going to get lynched. It was a disastrous situation...

But referring to Spm's point then. I know myself to be innocent so Spm and Legate I would like to look another time toDay as well. But as I said already, my first interest (at least now) is the "non-revealers"... and of course the few of you I suspected already yesterDay.
-----
But the more important point then.

Please make your votes known toDay!

I don't wish to see another Day with this little clues from the voting. That tally helps us. Just believe it and act on it.

Although it's not so straightforward as some here have stated - I mean the reading of those results. But anyhow. It's the best "quasi-fact" we might have.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Menel

Celuien's death was probably due to Vampirish influence. Even though the Vampires can't vote, they probably contributed to the lynching.

Of course it is possible, but I don't think the "evidence" from yesterDay clearly points to that. I don't think that rapid succesion of votes is suspicious per se, especially as it was close to the deadline.

Boro, I think you're a bit too accusing towards Shasta as he's a newbie. I know newbies shouldn't be underestimated, but I think the things Shasta has said to make him look suspicious in your eyes make him look a confused, probably innocent villager in my eyes. Of course I can't be sure, but I'm not very worried about him at the moment.

Hmm... From post #149, I'm quite supicious of Rune. The wording seems to suggest secrecy. An innocent should never try to remain out of sight, and Rune seemed tio be saying he was doing just that.

I fail too see what is suspicious about that post of Rune's. Xyzzy, have you considered the possibility that this feigning mysterious (I say feigning because I don't find Rune any more mysterious than anyone else here) might be a part of Rune's character in this game?

[Kitanna]

I still have a class to go to, but I'd like to say, I was honestly confused about the roles in this game. I've read and reread everything over and over as far as the rules go and I think I finally have a hold on it. I wasn't trying to mislead the village with my post, I was just proving my idiocy by completely misunderstanding the roles.

Anywho I need to run, but I'll be back in an hour or two come hell or high water.

Edit: spelling errors