Werewolf XXXII: The Lost Age

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I can attempt to kill the third vampire if, as a village, we can reach a general consensus.

Eomer was then protected by Legate or the X. Now Eomer will be killed so how about you try Aganzir toNight. I might hunt her as well. We might get her nicely before she can do any further harm... or at least lynch her toMorrow.

But to complicate things again...

Originally Posted by Kit

Also I'd like to say I did NOT attack Rikae on Night 3. In fact I tried to kill Eomer in the night, but it appeared he had been protected from my attack.

So who was it? Should we try to go on interpreting the narration again? So it was a vampire-ranger who did the protecting there? (I have gathered the vampires in the narrations must be out of their bodies anyhow - so as they discuss things they can refer to people of the village, even themselves).

But that's a question I might hope some contributions of you others....

I stil think voting Eomer toDay is a good idea (solves at least a couple of riddles), but there seems to be discrepancies still... I try to think more of them tomorrow (RL) as now I'm off to sleep...

[xyzzy]

Well, that's easy.

++Eomer.

Hmm... hopefully the night will reveal for sure who the final vampire is.

[Durelin]

I think Rikae's a wolf.

[xyzzy]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I think Rikae's a wolf.

What?!?

...Okay, after thinking about that, you may be right. I won't be the first... second... twelfth to jump on that suggestion, but I suppose it's an extremely remote, highly improbable possibility.

I would suggest trusting Kitanna; Rikae can examine him tonight, and if something comes up, he's dead. And if Rikae turns out to be wrong, we have our last Vampire.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by xyzzy

What?!?

...Okay, after thinking about that, you may be right. I won't be the first... second... twelfth to jump on that suggestion, but I suppose it's an extremely remote, highly improbable possibility.

I would suggest trusting Kitanna; Rikae can examine him tonight, and if something comes up, he's dead. And if Rikae turns out to be wrong, we have our last Vampire.

I wish I were a vampire, that would be much more impressive than my pathetic performance as seer.
Oh, and by the way, Kitanna is female...

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by xyzzy

I would suggest trusting Kitanna; Rikae can examine him tonight, and if something comes up, he's dead. And if Rikae turns out to be wrong, we have our last Vampire.

I think it would be an absolute and complete waste for Rikae to dream of Kitanna. She's the Shade. Trust her.

Oh and Durelin's the Cobbler. Ignore her.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I stil think voting Eomer toDay is a good idea ...

Erm, yes, I should imagine that it is given that he has admitted to being a Vampire!

The only other possibility is that he is the Shade and has taken the side of the Vampires. Unlikely, given that this would make Kitanna a Vampire and she was the one who outed him. In any event, if this is the case, we simply lynch Kitanna toMorrow and still have numbers on our side.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I need to think this more carefully again but this far I might say our vampires are Eomer and Aganzir.

The only problem with this is that, unless Gil was lying about his Day 1 vote, then Rikae received four votes (Menel, Gil, Brinniel and Nogrod). Which means that Celuien must have received at least four votes too. There were four votes stated for her - Lomiella, Eomer, Roa and Aganzir. Given that Eomer's vote did not count, this rather suggests that Aganzir's did, and even then we are still missing a vote for Celuien.

No one has indicated that they lied about their votes for Menel (7 stated - but one was Legate's - 5 received) or me (6 stated, 5 or less received). Which suggests that the remaining Vampire claimed to have voted for Menel on Day 2 and me on Day 3.

The only non-known innocents to vote for Menel (other than Legate) were Rune, Aganzir and me.

The only non-known innocent to vote for me was Aganzir.

So the Celuien votes suggest that Aganzir is not a Vampire, while the votes for me suggest that she is the only one who could be.

Aaargh!

It is, of course, possible that someone was lying about their vote for Rikae and/or that someone was lying about their vote for Celuien. But why would they do that if Aganzir is the third Vampire?

Add to that a vote for Legate still unaccounted for, and it seems that an innocent has been lying about their vote. But why?

I'm stumped.

It remains possible that Nogrod is the third Vampire, as that I think would fit with all the voting 'facts' that we know. But everyone has spoken since he first made his Hunter claim and again toDay, I think, and no one has sought to contest his claim. So, unless this 'real Hunter' is holding out on us (and why would she/he do so?), that cannot be the case.

[Durelin]

Where does xyzzy factor in to all of this?

What a marvellous cross-post.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I think Rikae's a wolf.

Why, yes, that's a possibility. The Vampire Seer may have spotted Mac and Boro as innocents, allowing her to safely claim them as such.

But then, surely now is the time for the real Seer (who, in this situation, has been keeping quiet in order to buy time) to step forward so that we can wrap this thing up?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Xyzzy

I would suggest trusting Kitanna; Rikae can examine him tonight ...

Er, we will know if Kitanna is what she claimes to be if we lynch Eomer (which we are well on the way to doing) and he is proven to be a Vampire. He has, in any event, admitted as much, so the chanes that she is a Vampire are ... erm ... negligible.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Where does xyzzy factor in to all of this?

Xyzzy claimed to have voted for Lomiella on Day 1, Rune on Day 2 and Nogrod on Day 3, so that doesn't really help us.

[Boromir88]

Ok, so let's take it from this approach, and just start eliminating names to get the last wolf narrowed down as far as possible. So we have:

Gil-Galad
The Saucepan Man
Rikae
Boromir88
Nogrod
Thinlómien
Aganzir
Xyzzy
Macalaure
Diamond18
Shastanis Althreduin
Kitanna
Durelin
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Sixth Wizard

Ok, so known innocents based upon revelations and seer dreams:

Rikae
Nogrod
Kitanna
Mac
Boro
Thinlomien

Presumed innocent (and fairly sure they're innocent), based upon voting for Legate yesterday:

Sauce
Shasta
Rune
Durelin

With one more being unknown.

I honestly think that we should just forget about the Celuien votes, as evil vampire Eomer was behind that. So, I honestly think any attempt at trying to dissect it will just lead to confusion (as it already has today).

Leaving:

Gil
Aganzir
Xyzzy
Diamond
The Sixth

Of those, based upon Nogrod's revelation as the lynch seer yesterday, the only one that would fit to being a vampire (since Kitanna - the shade- did not vote for Menel) would be Aganzir.

Now, SpM, I think there are all sorts of possibilities and what not if Nogrod is messing with us, an innocent villager is lying about their votes..etc. But, I think we go with the practical answer that sitting right in front of us...and that is Menel received 5 votes, from 7 claimed...one vampire has been found, the other only one there we don't know about is Aganzir. Yesterday from the 6 claimed against SpM, he must have received at most 5...the only one we don't know about is Aganzir.

So, I think since we have a big advantage in numbers we go for the practical and the person that's sitting right in front of our face we don't know about their identity and both times the votes didn't add up...that person of course is Aganzir.

We lynch Eomer today and Kitanna, Nogrod, whoever go after Aganzir tonight. If Aganzir is not the last vampire, someone is pulling our leg and we need to start searching again.

Edit: x-ed with several people

[Durelin]

*doesn't want to believe it's Aganzir*

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by me

Er, we will know if Kitanna is what she claims to be if we lynch Eomer (which we are well on the way to doing) and he is proven to be a Vampire.

Scrub that. As Di noted, there is a possibility that both Eomer and Kitanna are Vampires (and the Shade remains hidden), although its highly improbable.

Originally Posted by Boro

I honestly think that we should just forget about the Celuien votes, as evil vampire Eomer was behind that.

But I am not basing my reasoning on Eomer's Lynch Seer revelation. I am basing it on the fact that, if Nogrod is true, Rikae received three votes from known innocents, and a fourth from unknown Gil. Which means that Celuien must have received at least three votes, possibly four. Discounting Eomer's vote, only three people claimed to vote for Celuien - Lomiella, Roa and Aganzir.

Originally Posted by Durelin

*doesn't want to believe it's Aganzir*

Me neither. I'm all for Boro's suggestion of discounting the unlikely and going for the likely, but the Celuien vote makes me wonder how the third Vampire can be Aganzir.

But, I agree that we should lynch Eomer toDay, and that gives us the rest of toDay and another Day after that to ponder the identity of the third Vamp.

Btw, I am still awaiting an apology from all of those who suddenly turned against me yesterDay with no solid evidence whatsoever, other than the fact that I came across as being helpful ...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Btw, I am still awaiting an apology from all of those who suddenly turned against me yesterDay with no solid evidence whatsoever, other than the fact that I came across as being helpful ...

That's the problem with you.

You're so helpful and your voting record is terrible and the way you refer to it with all those smilies - being the first to note that "I am such an suspicious one as well " - made me feel more than suspicious of you. You're so ready to prevent any supicions by stating them yourself that it makes one wonder...

Not to say that you looked as helpful to the village, not only by mere words but performatively as well, that I thought you must be a vampire as I would have done the very same were I a vamp here...

But yes, I'm feeling a lot safer with you right now as the things are bubbling in other quarters. I indeed felt a little bad voting you even though I had you as my main suspect... For Legate (my last Night's hunted) I had much less in belief even though a bit more in reason... well what do you learn of that after all?

But as a hunter I will not say anything and reserve my right to hunt whoever I see fit for the next Night.

[Durelin]

Nogrod, we "know" you're the Hunter...you can stop reminding us in nearly every post...

I can still certainly stop believing you.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You're so helpful ...

But don't you see that I cannot win by this logic? If I was not being helpful, you would be one of the first to remark on it and cast suspicion on me for it.

I mean, your comment yesterDay (#453) that I looked suspicious for having put forward ideas that worked against the Vampires was just ludicrous. How would you have me play? Silent, unhelpful and surly?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

... and your voting record is terrible ...

Er, excuse me? I have voted for one more Vampire than you have (unless Rikae be false).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You're so ready to prevent any supicions by stating them yourself that it makes one wonder...

Yes, and if I did not state such things, then I would be labelled as suspicious for having tried to hide the fact that reasoning that I bring forward might implicate me.

Still, this is perhaps best saved for the afterthread, when we know what's what.

After all, for all you know, I might be a Vampire yet.

(I'm not, by the way - so I'm looking forward to that apology ).

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Btw, I am still awaiting an apology from all of those who suddenly turned against me yesterDay with no solid evidence whatsoever, other than the fact that I came across as being helpful ...

Allow me to delay my apology until your innocence is written green on black.

I don't expect anything to happen that could change my vote, so: ++Eomer

Nogrod, if you hunt Aganzir tonight, it will only make you a marvellous aim for the vampire if Aganzir is innocent. But I guess Kitanna will be the nightly kill anyway. The ranger has to protect Rikae, and only by killing Kitanna the vampire will have a chance to kill Rikae the next night.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shasta

SPM, I think, talking about the votes on Celuien... The tally of votes on Celuien is almost certainly false, given that Eomer was the Lynch Seer that day, and he's vampiric.

For about the fourth time:

Originally Posted by me

But I am not basing my reasoning on Eomer's Lynch Seer revelation. I am basing it on the fact that, if Nogrod is true, Rikae received three votes from known innocents, and a fourth from unknown Gil. Which means that Celuien must have received at least three votes, possibly four. Discounting Eomer's vote, only three people claimed to vote for Celuien - Lomiella, Roa and Aganzir.

Originally Posted by Lomiella

SPM and others who examine voting records: please don't bang your heads to the wall or anything even though the records don't make sense - there is always the possibility of some innocent stating a vote but forgetting to e-mail or pm the vote. I don't claim this is probable, but it's certainly possible.

Yes, I am well aware of that possibility. But it can apply to any of the votes. That said, it is more likely that one such mistake was made (the Celuien vote) than two (the Menel and Esspiem votes).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

So, I think since we have a big advantage in numbers we go for the practical and the person that's sitting right in front of our face we don't know about their identity and both times the votes didn't add up...that person of course is Aganzir.

We lynch Eomer today and Kitanna, Nogrod, whoever go after Aganzir tonight. If Aganzir is not the last vampire, someone is pulling our leg and we need to start searching again.

I do agree... But as I have chances to come back before the Day closes I'll reserve my vote still to foresee any miracles.

But without them I'm going for checking Eomer... via a lynch toDay.

And didn't I say that the shade would win with us?

Feeling good at the moment (it can change but at the moment all looks bright the first time...)!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'll reserve my vote still to foresee any miracles.

Sorry...

Just waiting for any miraculous revelations to happen or something... I really don't think I can foresee anything but by logic. And these should be there for all of us to share. So just see for yourselves!