Werewolf XXXII: The Lost Age

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mac

Allow me to delay my apology until your innocence is written green on black.

I'm looking forward to it ...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Sauce

This is doing my head in but, unless either Nogrod or Gil is a Vampire, there were four votes cast for Rikae on Day 1.

What if Gil really is the remaining vamp? That'd make sense about the Day1 votes.

Originally Posted by Sauce

Btw - any other thoughts on how safe it is to assume that Glirdy never voted?

I think it's quite safe. I can't imagine him just pming or e-mailing a vote and saying nothing here on this thread. That is not his style. If he had participated in the game at all, I think he would have said something along the lines of "hi i'm here i'm terribly busy... sorry folks, i voted x btw" on this thread.

I think Aganzir is innocent. I mean someone else than me and Roa had to vote Cel, and the simplest solution is that it was Aga.

I have no idea who the final vamp is and I'm very confused because the voting records give contradictory evidence... I need to think.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lomiella

What if Gil really is the remaining vamp? That'd make sense about the Day1 votes.

True, but it would not explian the discrepencies in the Day 2 and Day 3 votes.

Well, here's all the raw data we have, as far as I am aware:

Day 1

Di: Legate (Legate 1)
Celuien: Kitanna (Kitanna 1, Legate 1)
Menel: Rikae (Kitanna 1, Rikae 1, Legate 1)
Sixth: Gil (Kitanna 1, Rikae 1, Gil 1, Legate 1)
Gil: Rikae (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Legate 1)
Legate: Sixth (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Legate 1)
Rune: Menel (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 1, Legate 1)
Rikae: Menel (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 1)
Boro: Legate (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 2)
Lomiella: Celuien (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 2, Celuien 1)
Eomer: Celuien (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 2, Celuien 2)
Roa: Celuien (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 2, Celuien 3)
Aganzir: Celuien (Kitanna 1, Rikae 2, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 2, Celuien 4)
Brinniel: Rikae (Kitanna 1, Rikae 3, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 2, Celuien 4)
Nogrod: Legate (Kitanna 1, Rikae 3, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 3, Celuien 4)
Esspiem: Kitanna (Kitanna 2, Rikae 3, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 3, Celuien 4)
Mac: Legate (Kitanna 2, Rikae 3, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 4, Celuien 4)
Sleepy: Rune (Kitanna 2, Rikae 3, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 4, Celuien 4, Rune 1)
Xyzzy: Lomiella (Kitanna 2, Rikae 3, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 4, Celuien 4, Rune 1, Lomiella 1)
Nogrod: Rikae not Legate (Kitanna 2, Rikae 4, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Menel 2, Legate 3, Celuien 4, Rune 1, Lomiella 1)

No vote: Durelin, Shasta, Kitanna
No vote stated: Glirdy

Celuien is lynched – Eomer (Lynch Seer) reports 5 votes for Celuien

Day 2

Di: Nogrod (Nogrod 1)
Gil: Shasta (Nogrod 1, Shasta 1)
Shasta: Gil (Nogrod 1, Shasta 1, Gil 1)
Kitanna: Rikae (Nogrod 1, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 1)
Sixth: Rikae (Nogrod 1, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2)
Rikae: Legate (Nogrod 1, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 1)
Menel: Boro (Nogrod 1, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 1, Boro 1)
Rune: Menel (Nogrod 1, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 1, Boro 1, Menel 1)
Boro: Legate (Nogrod 1, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 2, Boro 1, Menel 1)
Roa: Nogrod (Nogrod 2, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 2, Boro 1, Menel 1)
Durelin: Boro (Nogrod 2, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 2, Boro 2, Menel 1)
Lommiella: Menel (Nogrod 2, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 2, Boro 2, Menel 2)
Aganzir: Menel (Nogrod 2, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 2, Boro 2, Menel 3)
Mac: Menel (Nogrod 2, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 2, Boro 2, Menel 4)
Esspiem: Menel (Nogrod 2, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 2, Boro 2, Menel 5)
Legate: Menel (Nogrod 2, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 2, Boro 2, Menel 6)
Nogrod: Menel (Nogrod 2, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 2, Boro 2, Menel 7)
Xyzzy: Rune (Nogrod 2, Shasta 1, Gil 1, Rikae 2, Legate 2, Boro 2, Menel 7, Rune 1)

No vote stated: Eomer, Sleepy, Glirdy

Menel is lynched - Nogrod (Lynch Seer) reports 5 votes for Menel


Day 3

Di: Glirdy (Glirdy 1)
Xyzzy: Nogrod (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1)
Gil: Shasta (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1)
Sixth: Durelin (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1)
Esspiem: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 1)
Rikae: Esspiem (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 1, Esspiem 1)
Shasta: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 2, Esspiem 1)
Boro: Esspiem (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 2, Esspiem 2)
Lomiella: Esspiem (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 2, Esspiem 3)
Kitanna: Eomer (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 2, Esspiem 3, Eomer 1)
Rune: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 3, Esspiem 3, Eomer 1)
Aganzir: Esspiem (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 3, Esspiem 4, Eomer 1)
Durelin: Legate (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 4, Esspiem 4, Eomer 1)
Mac: Esspiem (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 4, Esspiem 5, Eomer 1)
Nogrod: Esspiem (Nogrod 1, Glirdy 1, Shasta 1, Durelin 1, Legate 4, Esspiem 6, Eomer 1)

No vote stated: Eomer, Legate, Glirdy

Legate is lynched - Boro (Lynch Seer) reports 5 votes for Legate

Known Vampires in bold.
Known innocents underlined.
Shade underlined and itallicised.

Votes where timing unclear itallicised.

I'm in rather a hurry, so if anyone spots any msitakes, let me know and I'll re-post.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You're overlooking the most basic thing ever; I can't believe you haven't won the game yet.

Innocent, by the way. It almost certainly won't matter but ignoring all codes and such, innocent.

3 innocents and nothing else.

Treacherous scoundrel, Kitanna. After all we've been through, as well.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gil-Galad: Guilty. Brash and showy.

The Saucepan Man: Guilty. A magician to escape such certain deaths. Too lucky by far.

Rikae: Guilty. Liar extraordinaire.

Boromir88: Guilty. Part of that horrid 'innocent' scam. Too charming to be good.

Nogrod: Guilty. Underhanded, underdog politician.

Eomer of the Rohirrim: Innocent. A noble character, struggling to survive against the tyranny of the world.

Thinlómien: Guilty. But actually quite a sweet girl. Led astray by father.

Brinniel: Guilty. Lucky to be swept away, kindly, from this tragedy early on.

Legate of Amon Lanc: Innocent. A charming, special, and above all polite fellow, clinging to his freedom.

Aganzir: Guilty. Cunning and evil, no doubt. Will assume control of the new village.

Meneltarmacil: Guilty. Stirrer of trouble and disaster.

Xyzzy: Guilty. Sneaky, callous and cruel.

Roa_Aoife: Guilty. Bellicose, violent and bloodthirsty.

Macalaure: Guilty. Again, of the 'innocent' parade. Tricksy and devilish.

Diamond18: Guilty. It will be my turn next, you fiend! ( )

Shastanis Althreduin: Guilty. A trickster, and a rogue.

Celuien: Guilty. Deseved death. Though her blood is on the hands of the election officials.

Kitanna: Guilty. Traitor, traitor, traitor! To sacrifice your own life for the lives of an arbitrary group. Bah!

Sleepy Ranger: Guilty. A phantom devised by the village to terrify the remaining vampires.

Durelin: Guilty. Though I suspect she would prefer to be on the other side. She is not safe for anyone to be around.

Glirdan: Guilty. More tactics of terror, and another phantom.

Rune Son of Bjarne: Guilty. Lives for wine and parties and naught else, but eager to save his own skin.

The Sixth Wizard: Guilty. Another sneaky, tricksy, black-hearted vagabond.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Rikae: Guilty. Liar extraordinaire.

Why thank you! *blushes*

[Nogrod]

Nice Eomer!

Sad that you forgot to give us the third innocent though...


Okay I'll make this a go one more time.

Spm is quite right with his concern on Day1 votes. If Eomer and Aganzir were vampires two of the four Rikae-voters should have forgotten / mismanaged sending their votes. That sounds a bit improbable and makes Aganzir look innocent.

That might point towards Gil being the last vampire. If he has no vote then Rikae would have had only three votes and gaining them later than Celuien, Cel died with three votes as well. On Day2 and Day3 Gil has voted quite monomaniacilly for Shasta which I think is a pretty safe bet for a vampire not to be counted in any further tallies.

But there's a further problem still with Day2. As Menel got 7 declared votes but only 5 actual ones then even counting Legate out of the equation there's still one vote discrepancy. Someone forgot to send the actual vote then? That would be the easiest solution. Otherwise there is a liar in the group Rune, Aganzir, Spm.

On Day3 we miss a vote. Only four declared votes for Legate and there's five of them. That would make Spm, Shasta Rune, Durelin look innocent as their votes are needed to lynch Legate as there most probably was at least five votes on Spm - and there were six declared ones.... And if no-one has forgotten to vote then Aganzir is the only one whom we don't know. But we just saw her looking innocentish on Day1.

Cross-examining Days 2 and 3 we might clear Spm and Rune (oh my!). That would leave Aganzir again! Checking at Day1 tends to clear her but still she is the answer to both problems in Day2 and 3...

So anyone wishing to admit forgetting to make the actual vote? It would require the least problem-solving if there just is something very fishy in Day1 voting and Aganzir is our vampire... But if these problems on Day2 and 3 can be explained away, then I might consider looking at Gil really carefully toMorrow.

Originally Posted by Mac

Nogrod, if you hunt Aganzir tonight, it will only make you a marvellous aim for the vampire if Aganzir is innocent.

That's the reason why I ended my last post with these words:

Originally Posted by me

But as a hunter I will not say anything and reserve my right to hunt whoever I see fit for the next Night.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Eomer

You're overlooking the most basic thing ever; I can't believe you haven't won the game yet.

Much as one should exercise caution when taking advice from an enemy, there is something that occurred to me.

The rules state that the specific role of the Vampire will be told at death (although we did not get that information for Legate), but, as far as I can see, they do not state that the specific role of an innocent (if any) will be told at death.

What if one of the innocents who died was a Gifted and we have not been told?

Then we have what Kitanna said about Night 3:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Also I'd like to say I did NOT attack Rikae on Night 3. In fact I tried to kill Eomer in the night, but it appeared he had been protected from my attack. As you may have guessed I protected Rikae last night.

On Night 3, according to the narrative, someone (who was not a Vampire) attacked someone who was protected. Yet, if Kitanna is to be believed, the attack was not hers.

So, call me a fruity loopy fruit cake if you like (or even daft as a bat ), but what if Roa was the good Hunter and, because the Vampires attacked her on Night 3, was able to hunt before she died? If the Vampire Seer had spotted her previously (and she would have been a logical Vampire Seer dream on, say, Night 2), this would have enabled Vampire Nogrod to assume her identity the next Day, on seeing that her role had not been revealed.

There is a massive problem with this theory, though. Given that the Ranger was almost certainly protecting Rikea on Night 3, it means that Roa chose to hunt Rikae. Unlikely in the extreme, given that Rikae had revealed on Day 2 and Roa’s reaction was to trust her (#303).

However, if Nogrod is a Vampire, it would explain all the voting discrepancies, save for one vote for Legate last Night unaccounted for. It would also make sense of some of his behaviour ...

[Thinlómien]

I just voted
++Eomer.

Now I could go home and leave ww be, but that'd feel stupid - as someone already said, we should try to track the last wolf toDay not just be comfortable because Eomer has been revealed. But I have no idea where to start with it: the voting records just baffle me.

I think we should maybe forget the missing votes and concentrate on those people who are not exonerated by any vote (Gil, xyzzy, Sixth, Diamond) instead. Of these I'd be inclined to believe Gil most guilty, since Di and Sixth seem sincere and I have absolutely no idea about xyzzy.

edit: xed with Flying Saucer

[Aganzir]

Votes for Eomer toDay:
Diamond (I don't know if you have already voted, but I think I can include you to my list, as you clearly said you would do so.)
Shasta
Rikae
Gil
Sixth
Kitanna
Xyzzy
Rune
Lommy

Have not yet voted:
Spm
Boro
Nogrod
Aganzir
Mac
Durelin (let me assume you didn't actually email Volo your vote for yourself)
(Eomer)

No one should have a reason not to vote for Eomer. What if I wouldn't vote at all toDay (for my vote would go for Eomer anyway)? Let's see if he gets as many votes as told here - or who, besides me, didn't vote for him or accidentally forgot to email his/her vote. This is the best idea I can come up with to prove my innocence (except for asking Rikae or Kitanna to dream of me next Night).
If you think this is a bad idea, please tell it quickly, for I must leave about an hour before the deadline, and if I am going to vote, I must do it soon.

I probably shouldn't say this now that I seem to be one of the main suspects, but has anyone considered the possibility of Eomer being the V. Hunter? Obviously, Legate wasn't, since nobody died with him (I would also like to hear Legate's specific role), and now there's 50/50 chance that Eomer is.
And if he is the Vampire Hunter, he will probably take one gifted with him, and we are taking a risk by lynching him. This is not to say lynching him is a bad idea, but I wondered if anyone has thought about this yet...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I probably shouldn't say this now that I seem to be one of the main suspects, but has anyone considered the possibility of Eomer being the V. Hunter? - - This is not to say lynching him is a bad idea, but I wondered if anyone has thought about this yet...

I'm afraid that's the risk we must take...

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I probably shouldn't say this now that I seem to be one of the main suspects, but has anyone considered the possibility of Eomer being the V. Hunter? Obviously, Legate wasn't, since nobody died with him (I would also like to hear Legate's specific role), and now there's 50/50 chance that Eomer is.
And if he is the Vampire Hunter, he will probably take one gifted with him, and we are taking a risk by lynching him. This is not to say lynching him is a bad idea, but I wondered if anyone has thought about this yet...

Mmmm, didn't cross my mind, but a valid point is made. However to win the village would have to take down the Vampire Hunter sooner or later and with that hunter an innocent as well.
Also since Day is drawing near an end I'm wondering where I should put my gift tonight. I have an idea of who to go after, who may well be the final vampire. I won't say just incase the Ranger Vampire is still alive and able to protect (assuming my choice is a vampire), but the name does come off this list:
Gil
Aganzir
Xyzzy
Diamond
The Sixth
The list Boro created of the most likely vampires and the one used by Rune for the lynch plan.

[Nogrod]

I do agree with your reasoning here Aganzir. I'm also in a hurry and don't have time to think for all the possible loopholes there might be in there. But we don't lose anything if we try it that way. Eomer gets lynched without your vote as well. And as you said there seems to be no reason not to vote Eomer toDay...

And yes. Eomer might be the vamp-hunter. But he needs to be lynched anyhow for us to win the game. So the sooner the better.

++ Eomer

EDIT: made the vote as a quote...