WW XXXIII - Other Minds and Hands

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gil

yes i jokes, but i'm going to vote for Mac mainly because i am sure that the gifteds know of each other gifteds.... so mac wasting a dream on rune is well, a waste

Actually, Rune made it clear that he did not know of Lommy's identity until he spied on her, which was unfortunately the Night that she died.

Good grief! Apart from one Wolf and one Cobbler, you are all allowing Volo and Legate to play you for fools ...

[Diamond18]

Eugh, curse you SPM for being so persuasive... I think I'm back to being confused about our two "seers." I can see both scenarios being possible. I feel like sticking to Mac, but I'll sleep on it. Hopefully I can get online tomorrow at least an hour before the deadline.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So then....

Volo: Mac (Mac-1)
Mac: Volo (Mac-1, Volo-1)
Legate: Mac (Mac-2, Volo-1)
Aganzir: Mac (Mac-3, Volo-1)
Kath: Mac (Mac-4, Volo-1)
Anguirel: Kath (Mac-4, Volo-1, Kath-1)
Diamond: Mac (Mac-5, Volo-1, Kath-1)
Sauce: Volo (Mac-5, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Gil: Mac (Mac-6, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Shasta: Volo (Mac-6, Volo-3, Kath-1)

So Mac's definately in the lead.

If we lynch Mac, and he's lying, then Volo must be the Seer, and the wolves will attack him at night, and we lose our Seer (unless he's lying about the two lives)
If we lynch Volo, and he's lying, then Mac must be the Seer, and the wolves will attack him at night, and we lose our Seer.
If we lynch Mac, and he's not lying, then Volo's a wolf; we lynch him tomorrow, but we lose our seer.
If we lynch Volo, and he's not lying, then the wolves kill him off at night, and we lynch Mac tomorrow, but we lose our seer.

If we double-lynch Volo and Mac, then we bag a wolf either way, and the Seer's no loss, as we would have lost him anyway... I'll side with Ang and say that I don't see anything wrong with that.

Of course, the fact that Volo's lied twice on-thread has put me on my guard, no matter how much he sugarcoated it.

++Volo

Of course, I'll be on before the deadline, ready and willing to retract my vote if need be.

Oh, I guess I need to put my own vote in the tally. xD

[Aganzir]

Everybody has voted, and this is looking pretty bad.

Three sure innocents (Volo, Legate, me) + most probably innocent Gil are voting for Mac. Then there are Kath & Di, and at least one of them (possibly both) are wolves.
That's not enough to kill Mac!

Only two last minute retractions are needed, and Volo will be an easy target for the wolves next Night.

Non-Mac voters are Mac (Volo), Ang (Kath), Sauce (Volo), Shasta (Volo). If any of you is innocent, I suggest retracting for Mac.

Of course this vote of Shasta makes him look quite bad now, and I hope this means that either Kath or Di is innocent. Of course it's no use to rely on that.

I must go, I'll be back in 6 hours or something.

edit: corrected a name

[Volo]

I've been thinking on the Days to follow and brought a chart of possibilities.

I have very little time right now, but in about 4 hours I'll explain.

Let's just say that I think of it very probable that Shasta and Kath (or maybe Diamond are Wolves.

If that is the case, I'l trust that both of the two ladies won't change their vote to me, especially as that will condemn them to death in the following Days.

Ang are you ready to move your vote to Mac if needed?


I don't think that there is too much fear of me being lynched as that would reaveal the Wolves.

[Macalaure]

Alright. Even though I feel like preaching to walls I will give it one more try.


Volo is evil, whether wolf or cobbler I don't know.

I suspected Aganzir the past days, but her behaviour today looks very innocentish, albeit misguided. For the sake of the village, you should reconsider the premises upon which you argue.

Kath seems like the only one who actually tries to see both sides of the current dilemma. Unfortunately, she reached the wrong conclusion.

Legate is surely a wolf. He is simply too secure about the whole situation and I also trust the senses of innocent Saucepan Man.

I know Ang to be innocent and because of it the more I am puzzled by his behaviour. I don't like his jokes about my "acting" and his vote for Kath, I'm afraid, makes no sense.

I don't like the fence-sitting of Diamond. I suspected her before and so I still do.

The Saucepan Man is innocent, and even if I didn't already know that, I would assume it now, because apart from Kath he is the only one who actually makes up his mind, even though he could simply have said: "I know I'm innocent, therefore Volo must be evil."

Gil I thought evil before and I still do so. He is also far more sinister than even the old Gil ever was.

I'm not sure about Shasta, but his arguments make sense to me. Though it's possible that his vote is wolf-on-wolf, I doubt it.


Baddies: Volo, Legate, Gil

Possible fourth baddie: Diamond

Probably innocent: Shasta, Kath, Aganzir

Known Innocents: Ang, SPM

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Shasta! If you are innocent, you'll vote Mac.

Originally Posted by SpM

Actually, it was a rather sensible suggestion as, while any doubt still remains, it is the only way of ensuring that we are one Wolf (or at least the Cobbler) down toMorrow. The fact that Mac suggested it, and is willing to die to see a baddie killed, whereas Volo has made no such suggestion, merely reinforces my view.

Because this is also way of proving that not only a Wolf, but also a way of ensuring the Seer is definitely down toMorrow! If Mac were the Seer, he'd be down, killed by wolves at night. But don't think that, if we lynched Volo, the wolves would kill Mac! Of course not - they'll get Volo's second life.

Whatever, it seems highly improbable now that Volo could get more votes than Mac. But who are innocent, should vote Mac, and certainly not Volo.

[The Saucepan Man]

Look at it this way.

We have two competing Seer claims.

One is the latest (in my view, barely credible) offering in a series of convoluted revelations which have adapted in response to changing circumstances and was entirely unprovoked.

The other is a single, straightforward claim which was made with good reason.

Which would you believe?

I would also note that Legate and Aganzir, who have been at the forefront of promoting Volo’s claim, also happen to be the two villagers that Volo has declared innocent. Legate is clearly a Wolf. It would be risky for Volo to claim both of his remaining companions as innocent, although not beyond the bounds of credibility, given the overly obvious nature of the move. However, I can understand why an innocent who has been declared innocent by a false Seer would support the claim. It is also possible that Volo is the Cobbler and was uncertain of the identities of those he claimed innocent when he made the claim.

I would urge those innocent villagers who have voted for Mac to reconsider their position in light of the above. I would prefer to see Volo lynched, but a double lynch of the two of them would be a reasonable outcome if you consider there to be any doubt, as it will at least ensure that a baddie (in my view a Wolf) is lynched, rather than just an innocent. Either way, we will lose the Seer, as I simply do not believe that, with two Gifteds able to protect him, the Seer would have been given two lives.