Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[Thinlómien]

Hmmm... I'm inclined to believe Boro's claim. (Yet a little doubt remains in my mind. I mean, after the gifted-speculations which have taken place and growing suspicion against him, I find making such claim seems just somewhat shrug-worthy....) Well, I guess I'm going to believe him for now. He should die soon enough be he really innocent. (How comforting a thought. ) Besides, a good bear in Anduin Vale sounds just fitting.

Do we have a balck beorning, some evil power opposed to the good bear? Or do we just have two wolf teams? I'm leaning to thinking we have two wolf teams with two (hopefully just two, three would be a disaster) wolves in each. Thus, Menel and Izzie were in different teams, as there still continue to be at least two kills per Night.

Morm, I think a fellow wolf might have voted Izzie in order to look better. That has happened quite often. Also, I'm not sure if a fellow wolf would have risked his/her neck by "trying to save" Izzie. (What "trying to save" votes there even were? The Izzie-wagon advanced quite rapidly and the only ones voting at the time of it, but not voting in it are dead. Makes me wonder...)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Thus, Menel and Izzie were in different teams, as there still continue to be at least two kills per Night.

But why would Izzie have saved Menel then? Or was her vote only random, as she said, and she didn't know Menel was a wolf?

I'm inclined to believe Boro, too. That explains also why all the kills were so brutal.
I think you could forget Gil. If he's a wolf and hasn't been contributing at all, I doubt Spm would let him win. That if anything would be unfair. But on the other hand, if the number of the wolves was as big as or bigger than the number of the contributing innocents, the wolves could just ignore Gil and decide in the thread who to lynch in order to win.
Anyway, maybe better if you try to catch a wolf? That at least improves our chances.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by morm

I would feel safe to say that a wolf did not vote for Isabell yesterday but that doesn't mean the bear didn't.

Apparently, the bear didn't.
However, I agree with Lommy that it's possible that also a wolf voted Izzie.

For two reasons:
1) Excluding tgwbs (dead & innocent) and me (innocent), there are still Lommy and Nogrod who voted for Izzie. I believe the both could vote a fellow wolf, but of those two I think Noggie is more suspicious. When he voted, it was already quite apparent that Isabell would die (she got three votes before Gil), and certainly Nogrod wouldn't try to save a fellow wolf by voting someone else when he has first said he'll probably vote Izzie.
2) If there are two wolf teams, a member of one could easily vote a member of the other. Especially if they don't know each other.

I think Izzie-voters should not be treated differently just because we happened to lynch a wolf.

[The Sixth Wizard]

I'm starting to think like morm now, that wondering what manifest evil we have is getting us off the track. What does it matter, Lommy, what variation of dastardly beasts we have after us? How will it affect our strategy? What we need to do is verify Beorn88's claim and find the evil guys.

Is there really only 11 of us?

*Are there* I do believe.

2) If there are two wolf teams, a member of one could easily vote a member of the other. Especially if they don't know each other.

True. We can't rule out that the wolves didn't vote for another wolf by mistake, or that there are none left. Annoyingly, this rules no-one out, if we just go by votes.

[Mithalwen]

Only time for a skim through .... but I do find it amusing that Lommie suspects me for being non-committal while Nogrod suspects me for certainty.....

Yet to decide about Boromir's alignment......

Ponders.... *goes for lunch and analgeasics*

[Volo]

Hah, Boro, I knew that would be the case and am very happy that it is. You deffinitely looked like the last Gifted (Ranger or Assassin), but now that you turn out to be both. Now that is good. Because that means we have two kills toDay, doesn't it?

As scary as the "M" in McDonalds. Worth attention:
Mithalwen - My top suspect, though I've let my attention down for some time. So many things to take into account...
Mormegil - I'm sure that Rikae and Legate didn't die just because they'd leave little trails. Of all the people, I think Mormegil would be the most capable in doing the deeds.

Worth more attention:
Nogrod - He is on the tip of a knife. I do feel like he's Innocent, unless there are two Wolf teams, and he being on Menel's side. Possible, but I think we should try finding the other Wolf first and see if we win.

Pretty much Innocentish:
Aganzir - The eyes of an Eagle finding all those clues in the narrations. If she's a Wolf, she deserves victory.
The Sixth Wizard - Well, since Izzie was evil, I'm pretty happy thinking that Sixth is Innocent.
Thinlómien - Lommy has pretty much flown out of my radar's reach. Though I'm very happy to think that she's Innocent. So far things have looked in her favour.

The Beauty and the Beast:
Volo - Innocent (and I wouldn't say that were I Wolf, just droppes off the possibility of playing a Gifted).
Boromir88 - As stated in the first lines of this post, I trust him, completely.

The evil behind it all:
Gil-Galad - Forget him, he's not in the game. Although if he is using the flaw SPM's rules and is a Wolf who just sends one PM in a Night and does nothing else, kudos. But you don't deserve victory! Forget him. If he wins, we don't lose and could just swallow our pride and accept it.

[Volo]

In all the possibilities the survivors on Day5:

(Another name could be instead of Mith and/or Morm, but since I suspect them the most I put their names where they are.)

Dead:
Mithalwen - Lynched.
Mormegil - Killed by Boro.
Boromir88 - Killed by Wolf/Wolves.
+ X - If Mith turns out to be Innocent and the Wolves don't both target Boro, then one more person will be dead.

Alive:
Aganzir
Gil-Galad
Volo
Nogrod
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien
- X

1. In the worst case there are five of us left tomorrow. Two of which Wolves. The problem being Nogrod's and Lommy's absence (noted in Admin Thread). Still pretty good chances to win.*

*Ah, maybe no. If Gil is Innocent and doesn't vote. Then we're in trouble.

2. Second worst case would be that we catch only one Wolf and we still have only five survivors (i.e. Boro kills a Wolf but we lynch an Innocent). Much more probable to me than possibility 1.

3. We lynch a Wolf, Boro kills a Wolf, we win straight away.


And don't forget that I'm not putting a Wolf stamp on Mith and Morm yet!


EDIT: Xd with Morm.

[Aganzir]

Nogrod, could you please explain these comments from Day 2? They keep troubling me.

Originally Posted by Noggie

The familiar logic of all the baddies knowing each other vs. all the blind goodies doesn't work here. . . . So possibly not two sides but three.

To me it seems that you're saying "Hi, I'm a wolf, where's the other team? I know you're out there, we could co-operate."

Originally Posted by Volo

The Beauty and the Beast:
Volo - Innocent (and I wouldn't say that were I Wolf, just droppes off the possibility of playing a Gifted).
Boromir88 - As stated in the first lines of this post, I trust him, completely.

I didn't know there were lovers in this game.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Morm, I think a fellow wolf might have voted Izzie in order to look better. That has happened quite often. Also, I'm not sure if a fellow wolf would have risked his/her neck by "trying to save" Izzie. (What "trying to save" votes there even were? The Izzie-wagon advanced quite rapidly and the only ones voting at the time of it, but not voting in it are dead. Makes me wonder...)

There is truth in this Thinlo and if true it is likely that Nogrod would be the wolf. If he broke the tie for Isabell by voting for Gil it wold have only been too obvious perhaps. And voting for a third candidate to even tie it up in three way such as voting Lommy would be pointless as Isabell was the first to reach three votes and would have died. Thank you Lommy for reminding me of this. Too true and Nogrod is not out of suspcion of being a wolf or a black beorning. I highly doubt that Agan is a wolf in that his was the third vote for Isabell but an evil bear is a distinct possibility there.

I am going under the assumption that Boro is innocent as he says. The idea fits perfectly into what I've been saying all along. With that said it is important that we get a baddie tonight. That will give us a bit of breathing room as I speculate kills would drop to one a night. If we don't get one tonight the situation looks grave indeed, especially with Gil (likley innocent) not being around to help out one bit.

[Thinlómien]

Volo - how come you're so sure about the numbers of the gifted and the baddies? I mean, on what grounds do you assume that we have just one gifted left? And on what grounds do you assume we have two wolves around? Have I missed something or are you possibly a bit too quick to jump to assumptions?

I must say, morm's bugging me too. I mean, he seems to pretend to be more stupid than he is. I just feel his arguments are more full of holes than normally, and it troubles me.

As to the absence I talked about in the admin thread, I doubt it will exist as we're probably not going aboard (we've been switching whether we go or not for about a week now... ).

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Volo - how come you're so sure about the numbers of the gifted and the baddies? I mean, on what grounds do you assume that we have just one gifted left? And on what grounds do you assume we have two wolves around? Have I missed something or are you possibly a bit too quick to jump to assumptions?

Ok, I do admit that it was a bit quick to assume. I (and you yourself) don't believe there were six Wolves in total, that would be a bit too much. And anyway, if that is the case, we're already doomed (if the Wolves can win united)...

And I didn't have any need assuming we have more Gifteds. If that is the case, it's great. Anyway, I don't/didn't think we have more Gifteds.

At the moment I think we have (just to make myself clear):
- 2 Wolves, possibly (and probably) from opposite teams.
- 1 Ranger/Assassin, Boromir the Bear
- 6 Innocents

[Nogrod]

Whether one trusts Boro's claim or not one should do well not to vote for him toDay. If he actually is the assassin/ranger I don't believe there is a normal ranger as well. So the wolves (or whichever Godzillas) will kill him during the Night. In the best case he is able to defend himself or to take one baddie with him and in the worst he's just one innocent less. Those of us still alive will know all this toMorrow. So I would leave Boro be even if I'm not at all ready to put it past him to fool us completely here.

Right now I'm growing very suspicious of Mith. Her vote for Gil yesterDay looks pretty bad - even though both Fea and Shasta voted Gil as well. It's just a bad vote and one that a wolf would like to cast.

We should not forget that even though the victorius Isabell-wagon realised itself pretty late on the Day it was clearly something everyone knew was coming. Her getting lynched was no surprise to anyone as so many people had said that they would be voting her. So if Mith is (was) in cahoots with Isabell she would not have wished to vote for her but to bring forwards another candidate, Gil the easy kill that is...

[Nogrod]

Just a quick look at people here. I'll be able to play more nearer the end of the Day but now need to make dinner and clean up before my father comers to visit us.

Gil - let's leave him be. The odds are that he is an innocent and then counts on our numbers. I do agree with Volo here: if he is a wolf and wins he doesn't actually win. The moral victory would be ours then.

Boro - as I said let's see it with him toMorrow for the next Night will tell us a
lot about him anyway.

Aganzir and Lommy - they both feel genuine but I must admit that they have more or less flown under my radars and I would need to change that. I hope get a klook at them later toDay.

Morm - it's good to see morm back on action after those oneliner Days. Not one I would be happy to vote toDay as he can be a useful villager. But I need to read him a bit more closely before making any judgements.

Volo - as odd as always . He's one of those I find extremely hard to grasp (like Rune).

The Sixth - after Isabell turned out a wolf I think it highly unlikely that Sixth is a wolf as well (two wolves trying to save their mate just minutes apart from each other). But if the wolves (or whatever baddies there are) don't know about each other it could be possible though.

Mith - I'm getting suspicious of (see my earlier post). I'm going to read her later toDay to see whether my suspicions are worth something.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Nogrod, could you please explain these comments from Day 2? They keep troubling me.

To me it seems that you're saying "Hi, I'm a wolf, where's the other team? I know you're out there, we could co-operate."

In the quote I was actually just reminding us that we can't probably interpret the Nightly kills in traditional manner as there is a chance that the wolves (godzillas, whatever) don't know each other or that there may even be three sides and thence the logic is different. Now I would only add that the very same thing adheres to our interpretation of the Day's voting as well...

Even as we don't know the exact structure of this game there assumedly are two sets of baddies ranging from 1-3 each side. If they could win in cahoots the game would be highly inbalanced against us. And why then there being two different camps if they can win together? And if they can't they will be rivals to each other. And that is good news to us.

There being an actual competition between the baddies would make the game more even as well: lots of baddies around but rivalling each other. I think that would sound like a Spm game.

The only thing that kind of bothers me with this interpretation is that how come the baddies haven't killed any other baddies during the Nights? Just bad luck? That brings me to the question about who killed Menel in the first place? Boro said he did it and that sounds believable. But is he what he claims to be? Well, we'll see about that toMorrow.

Gah. Confusing...

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Mith, #79

and more than one wolf - probably more than two since, I think it would be unusual and technically incorrect ot use some when referring to two. Two wolves in such a large village would be suprising

I have a mighty feeling that Mith is Izzie's pair. And that there are two Wolf teams, both of two Wolves.
That comment feels like a bit too much knowledge has been given to much. As is she knew that there are (or might be) two teams of two Wolves. Ok, I might be overthinking, but...

[Nogrod]

Here's what Mith has said about Isabell in this whole game...

#99
And Isabellkya has returned and is new and perhaps should be given a chance (we have perhaps enough candidates for one night) . But I would say that quiet people survive because they are given the benefit of the doubt too long .. and then sometime villages panic or are manipulated into lynching them when there is no room for error and find that they were innocent all along.

#180
Izzy seems to be a Gil-stitute.. which wouldn't be so bad if we didn't also, in theory also have Gil.

#312
Isabellkya reminds me a lot of Gil in behaviour. Has attracted the attention, been given the benefit of the doubt at first and then attracted a fair number of votes.

Funny that she doesn't even comment on the most suspicious issue with Isabell (the Menel-saving vote), not to say she would have even considered voting her... A wolf-mate would do just that, stay silent about the topics that bring your ally to the fore and just ignore them.

I would say Mith seems to be avoiding discussing Isabell and that I find suspicious.

[Mithalwen]

Volo, my word were based on a thorough knowledge of the English language and common sense.

Perhaps we should ask Nogrod why voting Gil was so bad when he suggested. There will be laughter in paradise from me if you lynch me and Gil turns out to be a wolf.

I think Nogrod has been suspicious with his commments and voting. When I sussed out Menel he applauded my thoughts - but failed to make the vote that would have lynched him. Now he seems to claim that my success was based on knowledge not good instincts - with what intent? My guess is he has been keeping me around as a foil - needed to keep a few talkers to stop him looking so exposed. No doubt he will claim some Agent Provocateur role but I think Loup-Provocateur is more likely.

If I look suspicious - do you not think that was intended to a point? I got lynched night one last game for looking so innocent. Of course if is a hard act to balance.
Lynching me won't help the innocents at all.