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Old 06-07-2007, 06:37 AM   #1
mormegil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Morm
, I think a fellow wolf might have voted Izzie in order to look better. That has happened quite often. Also, I'm not sure if a fellow wolf would have risked his/her neck by "trying to save" Izzie. (What "trying to save" votes there even were? The Izzie-wagon advanced quite rapidly and the only ones voting at the time of it, but not voting in it are dead. Makes me wonder...)
There is truth in this Thinlo and if true it is likely that Nogrod would be the wolf. If he broke the tie for Isabell by voting for Gil it wold have only been too obvious perhaps. And voting for a third candidate to even tie it up in three way such as voting Lommy would be pointless as Isabell was the first to reach three votes and would have died. Thank you Lommy for reminding me of this. Too true and Nogrod is not out of suspcion of being a wolf or a black beorning. I highly doubt that Agan is a wolf in that his was the third vote for Isabell but an evil bear is a distinct possibility there.

I am going under the assumption that Boro is innocent as he says. The idea fits perfectly into what I've been saying all along. With that said it is important that we get a baddie tonight. That will give us a bit of breathing room as I speculate kills would drop to one a night. If we don't get one tonight the situation looks grave indeed, especially with Gil (likley innocent) not being around to help out one bit.
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Old 06-07-2007, 07:03 AM   #2
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Volo - how come you're so sure about the numbers of the gifted and the baddies? I mean, on what grounds do you assume that we have just one gifted left? And on what grounds do you assume we have two wolves around? Have I missed something or are you possibly a bit too quick to jump to assumptions?

I must say, morm's bugging me too. I mean, he seems to pretend to be more stupid than he is. I just feel his arguments are more full of holes than normally, and it troubles me.

As to the absence I talked about in the admin thread, I doubt it will exist as we're probably not going aboard (we've been switching whether we go or not for about a week now... ).
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Old 06-07-2007, 07:18 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
Volo - how come you're so sure about the numbers of the gifted and the baddies? I mean, on what grounds do you assume that we have just one gifted left? And on what grounds do you assume we have two wolves around? Have I missed something or are you possibly a bit too quick to jump to assumptions?
Ok, I do admit that it was a bit quick to assume. I (and you yourself) don't believe there were six Wolves in total, that would be a bit too much. And anyway, if that is the case, we're already doomed (if the Wolves can win united)...

And I didn't have any need assuming we have more Gifteds. If that is the case, it's great. Anyway, I don't/didn't think we have more Gifteds.

At the moment I think we have (just to make myself clear):
- 2 Wolves, possibly (and probably) from opposite teams.
- 1 Ranger/Assassin, Boromir the Bear
- 6 Innocents
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Old 06-07-2007, 07:36 AM   #4
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Whether one trusts Boro's claim or not one should do well not to vote for him toDay. If he actually is the assassin/ranger I don't believe there is a normal ranger as well. So the wolves (or whichever Godzillas) will kill him during the Night. In the best case he is able to defend himself or to take one baddie with him and in the worst he's just one innocent less. Those of us still alive will know all this toMorrow. So I would leave Boro be even if I'm not at all ready to put it past him to fool us completely here.

Right now I'm growing very suspicious of Mith. Her vote for Gil yesterDay looks pretty bad - even though both Fea and Shasta voted Gil as well. It's just a bad vote and one that a wolf would like to cast.

We should not forget that even though the victorius Isabell-wagon realised itself pretty late on the Day it was clearly something everyone knew was coming. Her getting lynched was no surprise to anyone as so many people had said that they would be voting her. So if Mith is (was) in cahoots with Isabell she would not have wished to vote for her but to bring forwards another candidate, Gil the easy kill that is...
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Old 06-07-2007, 08:52 AM   #5
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Just a quick look at people here. I'll be able to play more nearer the end of the Day but now need to make dinner and clean up before my father comers to visit us.

Gil - let's leave him be. The odds are that he is an innocent and then counts on our numbers. I do agree with Volo here: if he is a wolf and wins he doesn't actually win. The moral victory would be ours then.

Boro - as I said let's see it with him toMorrow for the next Night will tell us a
lot about him anyway.

Aganzir and Lommy - they both feel genuine but I must admit that they have more or less flown under my radars and I would need to change that. I hope get a klook at them later toDay.

Morm - it's good to see morm back on action after those oneliner Days. Not one I would be happy to vote toDay as he can be a useful villager. But I need to read him a bit more closely before making any judgements.

Volo - as odd as always . He's one of those I find extremely hard to grasp (like Rune).

The Sixth - after Isabell turned out a wolf I think it highly unlikely that Sixth is a wolf as well (two wolves trying to save their mate just minutes apart from each other). But if the wolves (or whatever baddies there are) don't know about each other it could be possible though.

Mith - I'm getting suspicious of (see my earlier post). I'm going to read her later toDay to see whether my suspicions are worth something.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir
Nogrod, could you please explain these comments from Day 2? They keep troubling me.
Quote:
The familiar logic of all the baddies knowing each other vs. all the blind goodies doesn't work here. . . . So possibly not two sides but three.
To me it seems that you're saying "Hi, I'm a wolf, where's the other team? I know you're out there, we could co-operate."
In the quote I was actually just reminding us that we can't probably interpret the Nightly kills in traditional manner as there is a chance that the wolves (godzillas, whatever) don't know each other or that there may even be three sides and thence the logic is different. Now I would only add that the very same thing adheres to our interpretation of the Day's voting as well...

Even as we don't know the exact structure of this game there assumedly are two sets of baddies ranging from 1-3 each side. If they could win in cahoots the game would be highly inbalanced against us. And why then there being two different camps if they can win together? And if they can't they will be rivals to each other. And that is good news to us.

There being an actual competition between the baddies would make the game more even as well: lots of baddies around but rivalling each other. I think that would sound like a Spm game.

The only thing that kind of bothers me with this interpretation is that how come the baddies haven't killed any other baddies during the Nights? Just bad luck? That brings me to the question about who killed Menel in the first place? Boro said he did it and that sounds believable. But is he what he claims to be? Well, we'll see about that toMorrow.

Gah. Confusing...
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Old 06-07-2007, 09:59 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mith, #79
and more than one wolf - probably more than two since, I think it would be unusual and technically incorrect ot use some when referring to two. Two wolves in such a large village would be suprising
I have a mighty feeling that Mith is Izzie's pair. And that there are two Wolf teams, both of two Wolves.
That comment feels like a bit too much knowledge has been given to much. As is she knew that there are (or might be) two teams of two Wolves. Ok, I might be overthinking, but...
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Old 06-07-2007, 10:28 AM   #7
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Here's what Mith has said about Isabell in this whole game...

Quote:
#99
And Isabellkya has returned and is new and perhaps should be given a chance (we have perhaps enough candidates for one night) . But I would say that quiet people survive because they are given the benefit of the doubt too long .. and then sometime villages panic or are manipulated into lynching them when there is no room for error and find that they were innocent all along.
Quote:
#180
Izzy seems to be a Gil-stitute.. which wouldn't be so bad if we didn't also, in theory also have Gil.
Quote:
#312
Isabellkya reminds me a lot of Gil in behaviour. Has attracted the attention, been given the benefit of the doubt at first and then attracted a fair number of votes.
Funny that she doesn't even comment on the most suspicious issue with Isabell (the Menel-saving vote), not to say she would have even considered voting her... A wolf-mate would do just that, stay silent about the topics that bring your ally to the fore and just ignore them.

I would say Mith seems to be avoiding discussing Isabell and that I find suspicious.
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Old 06-07-2007, 10:28 AM   #8
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Volo, my word were based on a thorough knowledge of the English language and common sense.

Perhaps we should ask Nogrod why voting Gil was so bad when he suggested. There will be laughter in paradise from me if you lynch me and Gil turns out to be a wolf.

I think Nogrod has been suspicious with his commments and voting. When I sussed out Menel he applauded my thoughts - but failed to make the vote that would have lynched him. Now he seems to claim that my success was based on knowledge not good instincts - with what intent? My guess is he has been keeping me around as a foil - needed to keep a few talkers to stop him looking so exposed. No doubt he will claim some Agent Provocateur role but I think Loup-Provocateur is more likely.

If I look suspicious - do you not think that was intended to a point? I got lynched night one last game for looking so innocent. Of course if is a hard act to balance.
Lynching me won't help the innocents at all.
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Old 06-07-2007, 10:33 AM   #9
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Your late vote saved Menel in my opinion. And though we know now that Isabeelkya was a wolf we don't know that you are innocent. Isabella at least at that point was a hapless newbie. You are not.

Attack is clearly your chosen form of defence but when I challenged you, you became very defensive. Histrionic almost....
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