Weres of Eire: Game Thread

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kath

The bit where he said: 'wolves and other assorted baddies'. Now 'other assorted' appears to mean more than one other thing to me, but perhaps Shasta is just trying to scare us. Anyhow, that's where I got that from.

Ah yes. Good catch. At the time that was posted, there was no indication that Noggie was a Wolf (and I still thought him likely innocent), so I didn't read much into it. Yet Noggie's fate was already sealed. So, either there is more than one Wolf left among us or Shasta was playing with our heads. Either way, I think we probably have something like a cobbler too.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Anyway. if I interpret correctly, Sauce, upon seeing a potential Brinniel-lynching in the works, adds his voice to it in the easiest way possible. I have no doubt that, if Brinniel is innocent, Sauce is guilty.

OK, so Rikae thinks either Brinn or I a Wolf and wants to lynch one of us to test the theory, while Kath thinks us both Wolves in league. Well, you can't both be right!

In any event, Rikae, I mentioned Brinniel's name toDay because I found her suspicious yesterDay but, given that I got almost everything else wrong, wanted to look back and reread/reappraise. Having done so, I think that my suspicion of her was largely based on my misguided conviction that Lommy was a Wolf. It seemed to me that there was some sort of alliance between them to direct suspicion onto the Warriors of Finn and me. I was also not entirely convinced by Brinniel's reasons for voting for me. So, while she is by no means cleared in my mind, my suspicions of her are somewhat lessened. No doubt you will think that very convenient, in light of your last post, but there we are.

I am off to look through Noggie's posts.

[The Saucepan Man]

It seems that we’ve all benn looking back over Noggie’s posts.

In his first post (#8), he says:

I'd agree with Lommy here for I do think also that we probably have three wolves around.

Of interest because we are still wondering whether we have two Wolves yet to contend with, or just one. It’s difficult to know, however, whether Nogrod was telling the truth here, or seeking to mislead and, perhaps, spread fear.

In post #17, he says:

I think also that we need to be aware not to direct all our attention and / or suspicion over exactly those people who look like ones we could easily turn to - even if it is the easiest way for any individual in the confusion and guessing on Day1. It has many times resulted in hasty bandwaggon-lynching of an innocent with the negative effect that the baddies can safely ride with the tide and get lost in the crowd.

The sense is unclear, but I think that he was trying to steer people away from the loud ones. He makes the same point slightly later, in #35:

But what I'm afraid of is that we end up like so many times before lynching an outspoken innocent on Day1 just because it's so easy to vote for those who are talked about eg. those who have themselves said something that stirs discussion.

He seems to be referring primarily to Eolin, Lommy, himself and me, all of whom had received a vote at that time (see his post #36). I actually agreed with him at the time, but it he may have been trying to divert votes away, not just from himself, but also from a fellow Wolf. If so, from my perspective, it can only have been Eolin. Then again, it is typical of Noggie to try to keep the louder players in the game, even when they are against him, and he would certainly have wanted to dissuade any further votes for him.

Noggie’s post #34 bears reading in its entirety. He analyses each of those who he claims to be considering voting for: Izzie, Brinn, Durelin and Kath. I think it quite likely that there was a fellow Wolf in this list. I am not sure why he was looking at Kath at all, given that she had hardly posted (which supports my feeling that she is likely innocent). And, while I would not put it past him to have voted for a fellow Wolf, I tend to think that, if Izzie was his fellow, then his vote for her would have been too risky. As for the other two, I rather agree with Rikae that the words he used about both of them could well be those of a Wolf speaking of a fellow Wolf.

In #37, he lists his suspicions:

Here we go then.

I find suspicious:
Isabell - The silent ones are always hard to catch but the slip about being frightened might be the one to make it this time.
Kath - I always find her suspicious and am afraid of her as she can pass every radar and still get on with it.

I have some concerns:
Lommy - Because of what I mentioned above.
Dury - She's one of those one just can't say anything. So we should be very careful with her.

I'm slightly worried about:
Spm - He doesn't ring any alarms right now.
Brinniel - She doesn't ring any alarms right now.
Rikae - She doesn't ring any alarms right now.
Menel - He hasn't have had even a chance to raise any alarms this far.

I'm believing innocentish:
Cailmer - Look above for stated reasons.

Hmm, if I was a Wolf making a list like that, I would probably place my fellow (if only one) in the ‘some concerns’ or ‘slightly worried’ category.

As I said earlier, I think Rikae’s vote for me (which essentially prompted me to change my vote to Nogrod) was not the vote of a Wolf. Menel has not said a great deal so far, and what little he has said does not arouse my concerns. So, based purely upon Nogrod’s posts, I would conclude that either Brinniel or Durelin is a Wolf (but probably not both).

Of the two, I am inclined to suspect Dury more, because of Noggie’s placing of her in his list and the words he uses to describe her:

And Dury is crafty enough to look perfectly her normal self and still be a villain.

She's one of those one just can't say anything. So we should be very careful with her

Just sounds like a Wolf talking about a fellow Wolf to me.

[Durelin]

I must say you all have me sick to death of these 'if this, then that' arguments. There is absolutely no way for you to prove the premise 'if so-and-so is/isn't a wolf, then so-and-so #2 isn't/is a wolf', so give up trying to sound logical. This is 'Werewolf'.

Wow, I feel like TGWBS...

*snort* While you guys are pouring over Nogrod's-specially-encoded-list-positionings, I will be clutching at some at least more realistic straws.

I have a bad feeling about Rikae and Isabell.

Rikae's "if Brinniel, then not Espiem, but if not Brinniel then Espiem" bothers me, but what bothers me even more is her "let's get to the bottom of this", as if we are all on the same page, we've explored every other avenue, this is our only lead, this is the last piece of the puzzle...or something.

Eh? I mean, I don't feel like Brinniel is innocent, and I am definitely not loving Espiem right now, but...whatever.

Isabell's kind neutrality puts me off. But this particular thing bothers the heck out of me:

Originally Posted by Isabell

After looking through a couple of Nogrod’s posts more finely, I definitely must laugh. He seemed to be pointing a direct arrow at himself, saying, “I AM A WOLF, VOTE FOR ME NOW.” Particularly when he said that Caomerilin looked more innocentish after having voted for him. As well as kind of not having a firm pointing finger of suspicion when it came to everyone else. Save for myself and Kath. I get the feeling that since I do not talk as much as others, (mainly due to time zone) that I end up being a pick for scapegoating.. an easy vote, with which the wolves can attempt to make a ‘case’ for and try to lobby others to follow suite. :P

Yes, the whole thing. Look at it! It's an entire paragraph dedicated to a 'laughing off' sort of defense of her being a Wolf on Nogrod's list, explaining why he would pick her to be one of his top suspects. Uh...Nogrod's dead, we all know he was a Wolf...why so worried? Obviously at the top of a Wolf's suspect list is not where most people are looking for another Wolf.

However, I see that as entirely possible...so maybe your seemingly off-handed, 'oh, how funny' defense is preemptive but genuine and practical?

*wanders off to raise her bloodsugar*

[Meneltarmacil]

Regarding Brinniel, it is possible that she's a wolf. She doesn't really say much the first Day, preferring to discuss possible meanings of the narration. Her vote for Sauce when the votes could go any way seemed out of place to me if they were both Wolves, but Kath, in her first post, suspected a Wolf-on-Wolf there, and I would tend to treat Kath as being trustworthy at this point given her role in lynching Nogrod yesterday. Her reasoning makes some sense as well, and I would like to add that a risky maneuver like that, if successful, might be a good way for a wolf to cast off suspicion. SpM suspects Brinniel a bit toDay as well, but then suspects Durelin more, possibly a way of maintaining a pre-agreed wolf-on-wolf-plan like what Kath seems to have been thinking of. Focusing more attention on Durelin would help to keep people's attention off Isabellkya, a wise precaution to keep Brinniel safe after the death of Nogrod.

Also noteworthy is the fact that we have Nogrod hinting that Sauce's in-game comments make him look suspicious but then dropping the matter and keeping his fanged mouth shut, even going so far as to actively discourage suspicion on that basis. I've seen this type of tactic in Wolves before. One of them will notice that another is doing something suspicious, then gently hints that said activity be stopped while disguising it as honest suspicion. The difference withNogrod here is that Sauce didn't take his advice, as he mentions the cards again in his next post, so Nogrod tries to clean up the mess he's made before it gets worse.

So we have Nogrod the Werewolf possibly giving SpM hints, SpM and Brinniel suspecting each other to a certain extent, and SpM defending Nogrod throughout Day 1 (claiming he's innocent and posting suspicions of Kath.

[Meneltarmacil]

Aaaaaaaack! I meant to say "Brinniel" in paragraph 1, not "Isabellkya!"

[Durelin]

I would just like to add that in what I quoted of Isabellkya in my previous post, she expresses that 'it was so obvious that Nogrod was a Wolf', as if to assure us that 'I totally would have voted for Nogrod if I had been here'?

Originally Posted by Eomer/Cailin

Izzy is likely innocent. We don't think Nogrod would have risked building a case against a fellow wolf so early and so consistently.

Nogrod doesn't even mention 'Izzy' until his fourth post, and then only as part of a rather large list (considering the size of this village) of people he wants to look at.

When he does actually look at her, he says:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

She just might be a baddie although the grounds are pretty weak. But the best I have this far.

Which, when compared to what he has to say about the other three he looks at (myself, Brinniel, and Kath), isn't much different. He does conclude that post saying she is the most suspicious, though.

In his next post he lumps the same four together, and divides them between two lists: the more and the little less suspicious, it seems.

At least remaining, of course, consistent, he does vote for her. A Day 1 case and vote...probably would have been forgotten by toDay even if Nogrod was not killed and found out. Not much of a risk.

So, I did forget that he voted for her, but I definitely don't feel like it rules her out. The only person I am going to risk ruling out for now is Kath because of the placement of her vote.

*suddenly eyes Menel* Following Rikae's lead?

[Isabellkya]

Durelin, I was merely laughing at the perfect hindsight of it. I was not and am not saying that it was that obvious. Nor am I saying that I totally would've voted for Nogrod, had I been here to vote; as I read the Night plot before catching up on yesterDay's readings.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hey ho. What am I to make of the fact that Cailomer's interpretation of Nogrod's posts largely mirrors my own? Perhaps, given my track record thus far, I should be worried. On balance, though, I find that it inclines me to trust them more.

A greater cause for concern. Durelin is speaking decidedly good sense.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Rikae's "if Brinniel, then not Espiem, but if not Brinniel then Espiem" bothers me, but what bothers me even more is her "let's get to the bottom of this", as if we are all on the same page, we've explored every other avenue, this is our only lead, this is the last piece of the puzzle...or something.

This bothers me too. But I still find it unlikely that, with Nogrod on two votes and knowing that I was around, she would have drawn me level with him, if a Wolf. Surely she would have voted for someone else on one vote who was unlikely to return. That said, I most definately do not discount her possible Cobblerishness.

Her points on Isabellkya also make sense. However, Nogrod knows full well the tendency for the quieter participants to attract votes on Day 1. Accordingly, his vote looks more like scapegoating that Wolf-on-Wolf to me. That's not to discount her entirely, particularly as she does feel very non-committal, but there are others that I find more suspicious right now.

So why does the fact that Durelin is talking sense concern me? Well, it seems to have come about just as she is coming under some pressure.

In other news, we have Menel accusing me of being in league with Brinniel. Well, I am provided that she is innocent. But, given that she has recently reclaimed her position as one of my top suspects, I somehow don't really feel like I am in league with her at present.

As for Noggie supposedly dropping me hints to tone down my act, well if that's the best that you can come up with, I have nothing to fear.