WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Huh? What? Nothing happened while I was away? Or are you all waiting for me to finish? How nice of you.

So, a few more thoughts. First, Rikae:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

At first glance, her vote against herself appears to be either a joke or an act of self-sacrifice. But a single vote against her doesn't really endanger her very much. Let's look at its immediate effect– to divert suspicion from herself.

Hmm... it may be so. One could say, having in mind what you said, that she is really asking to be lynched. You want to be lynched? Okay, we'll give you that! If you are a cobbler, no harm done. If you are a balrog, here we go - we caught you! However, this point of view would be a little oblivious to the possibility that Rikae is innocent. Personally, I don't see an ordo Rikae likely to risk in such a manner in order to divert suspicion from herself (if anything, it would have to be a joke). However, since she did not comment on her behavior this far, one cannot drop in too much conclusions...

Second, Mithalwen. There is something on her behavior that seems a little bit... confusing to me (or is it: confused?). That sort of a jumpylooking-jokinglyaccusing-nothingsaying-deepvalleyblack-deepvalleyforested gloomyland, err, wait, that was something else... anyway; what was I saying, her posts seem, well yes, confusing. Though on second look, there is something of real value inside them (like what she says about some people not willing to lynch the ones who did not have the chance to speak), but nevertheless, it's confusing.

People like Shasta, Volo, and who knows who else was here and slips under my radar, is slipping under my radar, for there was hardly anything that caught my attention about them. Now if that itself could be taken as a sign of danger... I'm leaving this thought to others. Currently, I'm afraid that I don't have ANY high suspect, which is really bad.
Oh, now, really! I just noticed one person whom I totally left out. Lhuna is one of those I have not noticed at all. Interesting. *points up* What does that say, that either I am just oblivious or that she is so inconspicious... (maybe intentionally...)

But, good news at least, it looks like I'll be able to make it for the DL after all, even though it might be in a hurry, but still I believe something that will point me in some direction may show up meanwhile.

And where are those who did not post at all yet?

EDIT: just x-ed with Brinn. Shame, you destroyed the effect of my opening of the post, having two posts in line...

[Macalaure]

I don't have much time right now, but here are a few thoughts.


Nogrod is a little too happy for my liking. He ridiculously over-analyses the first 10 posts, making it look like a parody of "looking helpful while not being helpful". I can see his traffic-jam argument, but something about him doesn't entirely sit right with me - at least this early. We'll see.


I'm tempted to call "cobbler" on Rikae, but I can't help but to think she would play that role differently, staying calm and waiting to make a devastating impact late in the game. Rikae, my dear, you leave me confused.
Good points about her by Nerwen and Legate.


The Might says little and then snaps at the first little suspicion against him. Though it's not very helpful, it feels rather innocent.

Brinn starts by saying nothing and only agreeing. She then snaps at the first criticism, too. In her case, it seems less innocent than in TM's. Her later thoughts appear much better, though.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

There's no use throwing non-random suspicions if a lot still have not spoken up

There isn't?

[Kath]

I'm here, but I won't be for long I'm afraid. I've got to get on a train in about an hour and then I won't be able to get on a computer before the deadline. It's going to mean a very early vote though, so time to look at what's been going on.

Noggie ~ I'm tempted to try and kill him off already just to keep the number of pages down! Has posted nothing while posting a lot. Keeps calling for people to talk which, yeah, great, but we know that and after the third post asking for chat you don't really need to do it again. Plus, that post that concluded everyone he'd looked at was a possible balrog? I don't know, maybe it's just his playing style this game, but it's making me suspicious.

Mith ~ Being a little down in the dumps, but then the numbers often look bad from the start.

Legate ~ The xyzzy comment, am I missing something? Seems to have the opposite opinion of Noggie to me, but then so do most people usually. He is being a bit pedantic about Rikae though. 9 games is very close to 10. Maybe there was a miscount, or he missed a junior game. It just feels like suspecting for the sake of suspecting.

The Might ~ Has definitely picked up 'how to be confusing' from someone. I'd say Nilp but it looks like Rikae it the one who has taken advice from him!

Brinn ~ I'm liking her posts. Straightforward and not worrying a point to death.

Lhuna ~ I think we might be wise to follow Lhuna's advice on lovers. She's been one so many times she probably does know how to deal with them! Of course, she knows how to deal with them from the inside so we might actually want to do the opposite of whatever she says!

Rikae ~ Well, as I said, someone's been taking lessons from Nilp! Are you one who dislikes Day 1's or did you just have no time and decide to vote for yourself because so few people had spoken?

Nerwen ~ Not sure I understand her. She said Rikae voting for herself was a way to divert suspicion, and then asks us to look at others reactions as proof of that. Yet if we look at Brinn's reaction in particular there is definitely no diverting of suspicion there, more the opposite. I would actually say it was an attempt to divert suspicion from other people if there's anything sinister at all. Perhaps Rikae is the cobbler? Unlikely to draw attention to herself so early on though.

Sally ~ Had the thought about Rikae being the cobbler too. But also says 'oh yes, I'm an innocent' right from the start, which just immediately makes me suspect her.

Shasta ~ Mentions Rikae's vote.

Volo ~ Pops up with an excuse for not being here but adds nothing constructive.

Mac ~ Well, I have some support for my suspicion of Noggie at least. His points seem pretty well made.

We have, what, three newbies this game? The Might, Sally and Nerwen. Unless one of them actually comes out and says 'I'm a balrog, please lynch me' I'm pretty much going to ignore them in terms of possible lynchees for toDay at least because I've been killed first Day as a newbie and it sucks.

Otherwise my suspects seem to consist of Noggie, Legate and very possibly Lhuna. Ignore the lovers she says, perhaps too bold for someone who actually is one, but it's still worth looking at.

Now, since I really do have to go and he is my top suspect:

++NOGGIE

[Mithalwen]

Very quick post ..... Either Nog is over analysing or suspicious ..... I am not that calculating believe me ... I just believe one should particiapate as much as possible and in the early hours of the game stating ther only thing to talk about was the basic situation and possibilities (apart to flippant refs to those who have bamboozled me in the past). Given the non retractable votes I thought it particulary important to remind of a few possibilities...

RIkae -Cobbler? crazy or genius? discuss....

[Nogrod]

Oh Kath... you're on it again.

I've only had time to skim through the posting toDay and need to attend a meeting in half an hour. I will be back with hopefully more elaborate points then for the last couple of hours of the Day and with some actual time to do something.

This far I'm feeling pretty good about Brinn and Nerwen. They both have made good points and contributed to important questions. Same could be said of Legate as well, but with him I would be a step more cautious.

Shasta and Volo I'm a bit disappointed about this far but I hope they will straighten their backs and get into the fray yet toDay.

Of those posted I'm somewhat worried over Rikae, Mith and Lhuna, possibly Sally too.

With Rikae it's pretty clear she's no gifted so in a sense we can lynch her with no fear of losing an important aiding role to us. But Rikae can be an important aid as a player when the game gets going. So I'm a bit reluctant to vote her on Day1.

Mith I talked about earlier and must say I still have the same points that bother me. But that's somewhat weak in any case.

Lhuna just feels foul. I don't know why in any analytical measures. Maybe it's because she has once already tricked me by being just like she is now - going under radar as a sensible person and then on the right moment attacking ruthlessly. I may counting too much on my previous experiences though.

Sally's way of discussing Rikae can easily be read as a balrog-defence of another balrog. Also her point that she is "quite certain" about her innocense sounds odd indeed. But that's not much I admit.

Sorry. Have to go now. I'll be back.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Nogrod is a little too happy for my liking. He ridiculously over-analyses the first 10 posts, making it look like a parody of "looking helpful while not being helpful". I can see his traffic-jam argument, but something about him doesn't entirely sit right with me - at least this early. We'll see.

Nogrod is a bit too happy, but that seems normal. I don't think he there is anything alarming in his actions -exept for the promise:

Originally Posted by Noggie

Well I'm around but there seems to be quite a little to pay heed to. I'll try anyhow. Just a moment.

After which he writes a joke analysis that I wouldn't call contributing.

Originally Posted by Kath

Volo ~ Pops up with an excuse for not being here but adds nothing constructive.

I thought of posting that in the admin-thread, but decided to put it here as I quoted Legate.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With Rikae it's pretty clear she's no gifted so in a sense we can lynch her with no fear of losing an important aiding role to us. But Rikae can be an important aid as a player when the game gets going. So I'm a bit reluctant to vote her on Day1.

Yeah, no way is she gifted. She might be a cobbler, though it feels more like a trick of an ordo. Good that she did that on Day1 and not later on when time and thought really is precious.

I'll try posting more in an hour or so, after I get home.

[Macalaure]

I think there is quite a bit which can be seen from the way people deal with Rikae.

There's the baffled ones, like TM, Shasta, Sally, Kath.

There's the analysers, like Legate, Brinniel, and Nerwen.

Their reactions are the common ones and, I think, rather unsuspicious.

Then there's Nogrod and Volo. I don't like the argument that Rikae is in no way gifted. I don't think we can be entirely sure. The argument also has an aftertaste of "She's not gifted, so when in doubt, we can lynch her without much of a loss." Even though they both denies this, it's in there nevertheless. I'm not saying Rikae is innocent, by no means, but by talking like this we're running in danger of making her an easy target for convenient throwaway-votes from which we cannot deduce anything tomorrow.

I'm also a wary of Mith, who mainly points out a just how confusing Rikae is, while (yet) contributing little to de-confuse. One could get the idea she urge us to discuss her so we won't get to discuss the more important matter of who the balrogs are. Nerwen pointed out her confusion once too often, too.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Mac

"She's not gifted, so when in doubt, we can lynch her without much of a loss."

More of "Don't kill her at Night"... So to be honest, I don't see why a Gifted wouldn't bluff like that, if an ordo would.

I am somewhat suspicious of this Mac-person (Though last time I did so, I was wrong...)

Nerwen on the other hand feels the most innocent.

Just gut-feeling.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't like the argument that Rikae is in no way gifted. I don't think we can be entirely sure. The argument also has an aftertaste of "She's not gifted, so when in doubt, we can lynch her without much of a loss." Even though they both denies this, it's in there nevertheless. I'm not saying Rikae is innocent, by no means, but by talking like this we're running in danger of making her an easy target for convenient throwaway-votes from which we cannot deduce anything tomorrow.

One cannot be sure about anything practically. Your point looks like a well considered one. And as I said, I'm reluctant to vote for Rikae toDay anyway. If innocent, she can be of great help to us and that overweights my possible suspicions about her self-vote toDay (at least for the time being).

But.

Most of us have already said something on the subject and thence changing one's point of view to make a "safe" vote would be looked carefully toMorrow if Rikae would be lynched and turns out innocent. So not so safe after all. Also: everytime people make points about others there's a chance that some vile creatures might go and hide behind that reasoning to vote "safe". So I'm not sure about the validity of that argument.

Now Mac may have his personal reasons to be the gallant knight rescuing his maiden. And that's just sweet. I hope there are no other darker reasons behind that.

[Mithalwen]

::

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm also a wary of Mith, who mainly points out a just how confusing Rikae is, while (yet) contributing little to de-confuse. One could get the idea she urge us to discuss her so we won't get to discuss the more important matter of who the balrogs are. Nerwen pointed out her confusion once too often, too.

Err - I think looking at Rikae was a fair p[oint in the circs ..I did only have a few minutes ... she is clearly cobblerish at best but a cobbler counts as an ordo for the village so it is not in our interests to kill her - however if she is distracting I suggest we each put her on the ignore list for the duration of the game. However behav ing thus could be a cover for a wolf or... anyway I must finish catching up since time is pressing ..and some of us have been working today....

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't have much time right now, but here are a few thoughts.

I'm tempted to call "cobbler" on Rikae, but I can't help but to think she would play that role differently, staying calm and waiting to make a devastating impact late in the game. Rikae, my dear, you leave me confused.

Well, I don't really know any of you people yet, but I agree that it doesn't make sense for the cobbler to try and get lynched at this point.

On the other hand, if she merely wants to get us hopelessly confused... it's working.