WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[satansaloser2005]

First of all, Legate I thank you for your handy little post a bit ago. It makes my post SO much easier, especially since I've just woken up. So if I seem a little fuzzy, it's because I am.

Really condensed nutshell version:
Brinn tells Rikae her vote is a waste (nonretractable and all that)
Brinn is the FIRST ONE to vote Rikae (not including Rikae herself of course)

That alone makes her suspicious in my eyes. She says she doesn't want Rikae to come back the next day and look innocent. I'm thinking Brinn didn't want her to come back at all. (yeah obvious I know. again, I'm tired)




Also I'm not terribly at ease with the fact that everyone assumes Might has dreamed about certain people. Now it does make sense from Might's posts that he DID dream about Nogrod, but perhaps it was just his voting of Mac that cleared him in Might's eyes. Besides Nogrod however, and even that is fuzzy, I am very uncertain as to who Might might have dreamed of. I just felt the need to throw that out there.


Updated suspect list (very subject to change)
Brinn (see above posts by several people)
Kath (still makes me uneasy....don't know why though)
Mith (post 148 Mith says everyone needs to vote or Mac will die by default....protecting her balrog brother?)


Not really sure WHAT to think
Legate
Gil
Nerwen

Thinking they're probably innocent (or not worth my trouble)
Nogrod (assuming that Might DID indeed dream of him)
Shasta
Naria


be back tomorrow night (after the next day starts) with more comments. also may be able to borrow a friend's internet connection right before deadline if i am needed. good luck all~!

[Nerwen]

Hey, Legate, you realize that your cautious, unwilling-to-commit-yourself analysis of Brinniel is, according to you, a symptom of balroggery? In fact you've been playing pretty darn carefully most of the time. I find it... interesting that you claim to see your own playing style as evidence of guilt in somebody else.

I'm also noting that though I've taken back part of my argument, you were the one who made the main case against Rikae– so I still think it's odd that you went after me for my actions that Day. Now you say the Rikae angle isn't important, but in your original accusation it most certainly was.

However, I've been reading through the posts at the end of yesterDay, and I'm inclining towards thinking Brinniel's more suspicious.

What's bugging me, though, is that the two people who have already voted Brinniel are both ones I'm doubtful about, especially Sally with her modus operandi of "pop up from nowhere, make bizarre comment, disappear again". Still, she seems to have got better.

Hmmn. I don't know what to think, yet. I have to make up my mind very soon.

[Nerwen]

I have to go now, so

++Brinniel.

I've been reading through her anti-me posts from earlier. Some very twisted logic there.

I'm still dubious about Legate, though.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nerwen! You seem to be misusing the fact that I tried to look at you in somewhat calmer way...

Anyway, seems I don't have time to make analyses on anyone else toDay, in fact I'm rather exhausted... and I'm not even going to reply to Nerwen, because all she says I have already answered before so there's no need to repeat myself hundred times over... I'm going to appear before the DL and then vote, and most probably for Nerwen. There is still time for people to post whatever they think might be helpful...

One thing I can say as very probable is that if Nerwen is not a balrog, Brinniel is. And if we lynch Brinniel and she is not a balrog, I say we lynch Nerwen. Simple as that.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

One thing I can say as very probable is that if Nerwen is not a balrog, Brinniel is. And if we lynch Brinniel and she is not a balrog, I say we lynch Nerwen. Simple as that.

Agreed. And if we both get lynched, and neither of us are balrogs... I think you all know who to lynch next, right?

Now I really have to go. Good night, all.

[Brinniel]

A half an hour left til deadline....where is everyone? Five votes have been made, so five more should be coming in.

I was going to go after Nerwen or even Kath, but it seems now I will have to vote for either Legate or Sally if there's any chance of saving myself.

I still don't find Legate all that suspicious. Sally I'm not so sure.

[Kath]

I'm sorry, I know I've barely been here toDay but I've been out since midday and only just got back and I want to go watch what's left of Come Dancing so I'm gonna vote quickly and go. I will try to be much more active tomorrow as I shouldn't be as busy!

The Day has seemed mostly to be an argument between Nerwen and Legate, but I don't actually think either is suspicious for it. It reminds me of my argument with Noggie, so I can hardly accuse them on that basis.

The suspects of the Day seem to be Nerwen and Brinn. Well, I don't find Nerwen suspicious and I'm not sure about Brinn. I've seen analyses of her and I can see the arguments against her, and I've also not managed to get a feel on her yet and that, well, lack of anything does suggest some suspicion to me. But I'm not convinced.

Mith has suddenly become very calm but then she hasn't really been under suspicion toDay. Still she answered Nerwen very calmly, so I'm thinking she's innocent at the moment.

Argh, where have I got to.

Probably innocent:
Mithalwen
Legate of Amon Lanc
Nogrod
Nerwen

Really can't get a grip on:
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Naria
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin

Huh, so basically I think everyon who speaks is innocent and everyone that doesn't is suspicious. Wrong way round for me!

But, of those I'm left with. Oh I really don't know toDay. Actually, I think I might put Shasta into the innocent list, as reading back over her posts quickly they actually look pretty good. And Naria, I don't think a balrog would have such confusion over how many Night's we've had so I guess she's eliminated. Which leaves Brinn, Gil and Sally.

I don't want to vote Gil. He's really getting involved this game and that's hardly something to be discouraged. It does generally mean he has a role of some kind but I haven't seen enough yet to know if it's a good or bad one.

Brinn or Sally, Brinn or Sally. I've gone over their posts. Brinn's mostly analytical, Sally's a little lacking in substance. So:

++SALLY

Because of the comments around The Might mostly I think. We all know that everything we assume about who he dreamt of is just that, an assumption, so this seems an odd comment:

I just felt the need to throw that out there.

Right, I'm off.

[Brinniel]

Alright then.

++Sally

To have any shot of saving myself. She does have a bit of an odd behaviour, though I'm not sure I would actually call it suspicious. Yet, I think Legate is more likely to be innocent anyway.

[satansaloser2005]

To be truthful, I'm a little concerned about getting voted. But alas, if you all wish to kill me, that will be your decision.

To clarify, I don't find Nogrod suspicious really. I just don't like to assume things too quickly, thus I question Might's clues to us. They could be completely random, but indeed the odds are in favor of Nogrod's innocence. Either way, I don't think he's harboring balrog tendencies.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Alright then.

++Sally

To have any shot of saving myself. She does have a bit of an odd behaviour, though I'm not sure I would actually call it suspicious. Yet, I think Legate is more likely to be innocent anyway.

Okay. Don't take everything Legate says uncritically...

I'm sadly not having time to do more right now but I have read the posts that had come after I flew away.

Only three minutes left with the computer. I try to come back later toDay.

I still wouldn't forget Kath either...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

I don't want to vote Gil. He's really getting involved this game and that's hardly something to be discouraged. It does generally mean he has a role of some kind but I haven't seen enough yet to know if it's a good or bad one.

Yep a 2 posts per day average must be a record ....

[Mithalwen]

Oh mandos .... I get stuck with the casting vote .... and I can never make decisions ..... 2 suspects and I trust some of the voters in both camps more than others ...

[Mithalwen]

A post count ...correct me if I am wrong

Brinniel 3 (Sally, Gol, Nerwen)
Sally 1 (Nogrod)
Legate 1 (Shasta)


Not voted

Legate, Me, Kath, Naria, Brinniel.

Every has at least turned up, still open .... hmmm

[Mithalwen]

Ok.... hmmI was thinking about voting Sally sinceI didn't like her twisting my words but I can never not suspect Kath.. and that makes Sally less suspicious gah.... and I while I can't say I am certain about Brinniel..I am suspicious enough to be cautious about letting her off the hook... 20 minutes....

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Mith (post 148 Mith says everyone needs to vote or Mac will die by default....protecting her balrog brother?)

Sally, you are free to suspect me but I fear you misunderstandand misrepresent me . That is not what my post says at all. "Vote swiftly or it will be Mac by default" was aimed specifically at Brinniel's dithering between Mac and the Might a couple of posts earlier .

I wasn't trying to protect Mac.. I wanted Brinniel to nail her colours to the mast. Not vote to save Mac but a vote to leave an "audit trail". If people leave voting to late then abstain on the grounds that it wasn't going to make a difference it is a bit shifty to me.

If for arguments sake Brinniel and Mac were both wolves and they had already a strong suspicion that the Might was the seer - not impossible given the various possible hints, Brinniel was in an awkward situation last night - either to put Mac's vote quite beyond reach or to vote for the seer. Either could look bad when the role was revealed on death... but not voting looks bad too. Of course ordos dither too but you have to folow up what leads you can.
But to take that post so out of context and twist it .... and make it grounds for major suspicion? That is a little suspicious...