WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Brinniel]

(Once again, I'm not analysing every single post, only the ones I think are important. Otherwise, everything will just be too lengthy.)

Analysis of Mac:

Day 1

#50: Doesn't see how Rikae could form an opinion on him based on his first post which was completely roleplay. Thinks Nerwen is more tense than she was last game. Volo is suspicious- criticises Rikae then agrees and jumps on the Valier bandwagon.

#59: Doesn't think Volo's reason for suspecting Rikae ("her analysis was not helpful enough") is not a good enough reason to suspect her.

#75: Finds Nerwen continuously defensive. If no one else will suspect Volo, he'll look elsewhere.

#88: A long analytical post:
Innocent or speaks sense: Lommy, Legate, Aganzir, Menel, Might, Brinn, Kuru
No idea: Volo, morm, Fea, Farael, Rikae, Shasta
Leaning Guilty: Sally, Green, Nerwen, Valier, Kath

#104: Thinks Might's self-vote was a "tantrum" - probably innocent

#121: Votes Nerwen

Quite honestly, I don't see anything that alarms me about Mac. He seems to think well through his suspicions and as a wolf, I find him to be a lot more accusing. I'm thinking he's innocent for now.

Okay, from posts #188 and on I'm not going to include in my analysis because I finished before they posted, and I just don't have the time or energy to keep picking apart everything as I go.

EDIT: X-ed with Volo

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Might:

Day 1

#7: Says he'd rather vote for the quiet players.

#10: The quiet ones are more suspicious.

Now it is at these very first statements that causes the controversy. Yet, I find usually the one who starts controversy and grabs attention is innocent. I would almost rather look at those who continued this discussion past its expiration date for any wolvishness.

#53: A defensive post. Doesn't want to vote without proof or explaining reasons.

#69: Thinks people are taking him too seriously. They shouldn't vote for him just because he's out of the ordinary. Doesn't want the same patterns as last game.

Originally, I saw this as suspicious...mainly because of the "don't vote me, because I'm different" statement.

#78: Votes for himself.

I still think the self-vote really did come out of frustration and curiousity. Though, it's always possible that as a wolf he did it knowing people would avoid a repeat of last game. But I doubt it.

Day 2

#139: Says his self-vote was because he wasn't in the mood of getting votes because he was confusing and he was curious if people would actually lynch him. Finds Legate suspicious.

His explanation seems legit. I want to know why he finds Legate suspicious, though.

Conclusion: My opinion hasn't changed. Might is still leaning innocent for me.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Sally:

Day 1

#20: Notes that in the last game the last baddie was silent mostly. We should pay attention to when and what people post.

#63: Is reluctant to vote the quiet just because they're quiet. Same reasons for the loud players.

#94: Finds morm fuzzy- a hunch. Doesn't want to see Might die by her hand. Votes Morm.

I'm a little uncomfortable about her vote for morm. I don't like when votes are based only on hunches and nothing else. But still, she doesn't ring any alarms.

Day 2

#167: Agrees that Valier's post could be interpreted as seerish. Could still be thought that way whether morm was a wolf or not. If not, he was also framed. Or Valier could've been picked randomly.

I doubt the wolves picked Valier randomly.

#169: Votes morm

#182: Says she was surprised by Nerwen's lynching. Will look at those who voted her if morm is a wolf.

We should look at Nerwen voters regardless if morm is a wolf. After all, there were seven votes. A wolf is hidden in there somewhere.

Conclusion: Sally is certainly persistant with morm. If he is a wolf, I doubt she is one too. For now, I'm pretty unsure on her.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Fea:

Day 1

# 40: Doesn't think Day 1 psots will have substance. There's nothing to go on since the wolves have nothing to hide.

Like many others, I disagree. But I find nothing suspicious about this post.

#90: Says she'll vote for someone who will complicate things later on if she has no better suspects. Glad to see Might stirring up controversy, though she thinks him more likely innocent.

#93: It's natural for everyone to be defensive

Maybe, but a wolf tends to be more defensive because they get more nervous when suspected. I know from previous experience.

#97: Votes morm, disagreeing with his vote.

Day 2

#140: Thinks Valier was killed to frame morm as well as her confidence in gut reactions.

#143: Posts all quotes mentioning Valier.

#146: Doesn't think morm would kill Valier and finds him innocent.

Well, she certainly seems a lot more helpful on Day 2. Although, she did state back on Day 1 that she would be.

Conclusion: I honestly cannot read Fea at all. So I have no idea at this point.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Kuru:

Day 1

#16: Agree about not picking out the quiet ones. Though the same could be said about loud players.

#54: Suspicious of Might based off his desire to vote a loud/quiet

#66: Morm is talking sense. Lommy talks a lot, is trying to be too helpful.

#76: Valier is looking furry for her defensiveness and vote. But he's still reluctant to vote her.

#102: Finds the newbie/veteran debate less helpful than the quiet/loud one. Nothing should be based on how long someone's been around.

#112: Is inclined to vote for Lommy.

#117: Clarifies that Lommy is not coherent and is self-contradicting.

#127: Doesn't want to vote morm. Would rather vote Lommy but chooses Nerwen.

I'm finding it strange he would vote Nerwen went he suspects Lommy so much. But I suppose that's because he feared a double lynch.

#132: If Nerwen is innocent, someone should look at Lommy.

Conclusion: I find it strange how he makes so many short posts, but perhaps that's just his style. I don't find anything alarming about him, and since he won't be around toDay, I'd rather not consider him for lynching.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Menel:

Day 1

#17: Agrees there's 1-2 quiet wolves. Thinks there will be one wolf who will confuse everyone.

#122: Thinks morm is acting odd. Doesn't like that his reason for voting Valier is because she might get him lynched. Doesn't think Valier is a wolf if morm is. Votes morm.

Day 2

#148: Doesn't think morm would kill Valier, but it could be a double bluff.

#152: Nerwen's wolfish behaviour was actually newbiness. One wolf probably voted her.

I think possibly more than one wolf voted her.

#158: Agrees with Farael that Rikae is suspicious. Thinks it's possible morm and Rikae are wolves together.

Conclusion: Menel seems to quickly jump the bandwagon. First with morm, then with Rikae. Also, I agree with others' comments about him stating that he's surprised to be alive and so on. I've overlooked it because I know he'd been dying early on a lot. But letting everyone know that is a perfect way for a wolf to slide by..

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Kath:

Day 1

#51: Thinks it's okay for Rikae to offer an opinion on Mac based on outside reasons. Thinks Nerwen is jumpy.

#67: Votes Might- thinks his self-vote might be double-bluff.

Her vote really did come out of nowhere and I do find that fishy.

Day 2

#157: Agrees that Valier could've been thought as a seer, or perhaps they killed her knowing she's potentially dangerous. Finds it odd that Green goes back to the loud/quiet discussion from yesterDay. Finds Lommy innocent.

I do agree with her thoughts on Green. As I said earlier, we should look at those who continue that discussion long past its due date.

#168: Still doesn't like Might's self vote. Doesn't like morm's reply to Valier. Finds Brinn's vote suspicious.
Possibly guilty: Green, Might, Brinn, morm

Conclusion: While I still don't like her vote yesterDay, the rest seems okay for now.

[Meneltarmacil]

A few points to bring up:

My comments about being eaten were only sarcastic jokes based on past events. If my ancestors weren't attracting enough suspicion on Day 1, the wolves usually killed them on Night 1.

Now, as to my bandwagoning, what was I supposed to do? Mormegil had attracted three votes due to the fact that he genuinely looked suspicious. I had noticed a distinctive change in his style and had seen him posting random accusations early on. My vote was based on actual suspicions and not just because morm had a lot of votes.

As for who voted whom:

Of the four wolves, I'd say two voted for Nerwen, one voted morm, and the last one could be anywhere, though I think Valier would be the best "wolf-bait" among the remaining candidates.

[mormegil]

Sorry, I'm only to post 193 and while I may make it back in time before the deadline I'm not entirely sure abou it and if I do I doubtful will have a chance to do more than glance through and see the votes.

Sorry Legate...I did copy Kath's vote list *glares at Kath* I was lazy as it seems was Kath for that I apologize. Speaking of Kath, it does surprise me that she honestly suspects me. Others, it doesn't surprise me. Fea I did read your posts because I do/did suspect you so I wanted to see more of what you said and based upon that I still suspect you a bit but you seem more sensible on the matter...which kind of scares me honestly .

To clarify my first post of the day I did laugh (because it is funny at the attempt and I pictured old Lommy running out yelling that morm must be a wolf because Valier looked like a seer which I actually didn't pick up on...I felt her behavior was far more suspicious) at the wolves attempt as it was a very weak set up job but it has worked in so far as the whole day has been spent talking about me. Killing Valier was a benefit to them and the next day result was a calculated side benefit.

I'm going with my gut today and voting for Volo. I know most people think him innocent and that is one thing that scares me as he hasn't 'felt' right to me. I cannot pinpoint it but I feel there is something.

++Volo

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Volo

Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves.

WHAT??? That's probably the most peculiar argument I've seen this far. Could you explain again, Volo? Unexplained, I definitely find this argument disturbing.

EDIT: x-ed with Brinn

[Volo]

Popping in to answer, haven't read all. Family'll throw me out if I don't go party Chrismas with them.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

WHAT??? That's probably the most peculiar argument I've seen this far. Could you explain again, Volo? Unexplained, I definitely find this argument disturbing.

Simple. 1. I think that they're honest because I conclude as they do independadly. For proof look at my post at about 11PM GMT where I promise to show my ideas and my preveous post which is nearly a cross-post with Legate and Lommy so I couldn't have searched for my thoughts about you and Sally after Legates post so fast.
2. A lot will be cleared about them if our suspects are Innocent or Wolves. Which will reveal a lot (to me) about both Lommy's and Legate's roles. I find it stupid to suspect them at this point.

[Macalaure]

I'm back. I only skim-read the posts of today so far, and I'm very disturbed. Except Rikae, Legate, and Brinn, nobody really mentioned me at all! That's unnatural. There's something wrong in here.

Originally Posted by Legate

Mac, just a note. If you think my vote was fishy in any way, look at my post #105. A post before, you personally pointed out the danger of double-lynch and I was the first one who asked whether people are going to vote Nerwen and then after me there was the line of others, including you, who confirmed they'll vote for Nerwen.

All Nerwen voters past that point look suspicious to me. Yes, you were the first, and if you are a wolf, you wisely picked Nerwen, who many have mentioned as suspicious before, and brought her to the front. You did't discuss other possibilities at that point.
I don't have anything good against you otherwise yet. I'll properly read everything now, and then I'll see clearer, I hope.