WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Kuru:

Day 1

#16: Agree about not picking out the quiet ones. Though the same could be said about loud players.

#54: Suspicious of Might based off his desire to vote a loud/quiet

#66: Morm is talking sense. Lommy talks a lot, is trying to be too helpful.

#76: Valier is looking furry for her defensiveness and vote. But he's still reluctant to vote her.

#102: Finds the newbie/veteran debate less helpful than the quiet/loud one. Nothing should be based on how long someone's been around.

#112: Is inclined to vote for Lommy.

#117: Clarifies that Lommy is not coherent and is self-contradicting.

#127: Doesn't want to vote morm. Would rather vote Lommy but chooses Nerwen.

I'm finding it strange he would vote Nerwen went he suspects Lommy so much. But I suppose that's because he feared a double lynch.

#132: If Nerwen is innocent, someone should look at Lommy.

Conclusion: I find it strange how he makes so many short posts, but perhaps that's just his style. I don't find anything alarming about him, and since he won't be around toDay, I'd rather not consider him for lynching.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Menel:

Day 1

#17: Agrees there's 1-2 quiet wolves. Thinks there will be one wolf who will confuse everyone.

#122: Thinks morm is acting odd. Doesn't like that his reason for voting Valier is because she might get him lynched. Doesn't think Valier is a wolf if morm is. Votes morm.

Day 2

#148: Doesn't think morm would kill Valier, but it could be a double bluff.

#152: Nerwen's wolfish behaviour was actually newbiness. One wolf probably voted her.

I think possibly more than one wolf voted her.

#158: Agrees with Farael that Rikae is suspicious. Thinks it's possible morm and Rikae are wolves together.

Conclusion: Menel seems to quickly jump the bandwagon. First with morm, then with Rikae. Also, I agree with others' comments about him stating that he's surprised to be alive and so on. I've overlooked it because I know he'd been dying early on a lot. But letting everyone know that is a perfect way for a wolf to slide by..

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Kath:

Day 1

#51: Thinks it's okay for Rikae to offer an opinion on Mac based on outside reasons. Thinks Nerwen is jumpy.

#67: Votes Might- thinks his self-vote might be double-bluff.

Her vote really did come out of nowhere and I do find that fishy.

Day 2

#157: Agrees that Valier could've been thought as a seer, or perhaps they killed her knowing she's potentially dangerous. Finds it odd that Green goes back to the loud/quiet discussion from yesterDay. Finds Lommy innocent.

I do agree with her thoughts on Green. As I said earlier, we should look at those who continue that discussion long past its due date.

#168: Still doesn't like Might's self vote. Doesn't like morm's reply to Valier. Finds Brinn's vote suspicious.
Possibly guilty: Green, Might, Brinn, morm

Conclusion: While I still don't like her vote yesterDay, the rest seems okay for now.

[Brinniel]

(I wonder if I'm bugging the crap out of everyone with these flood posts. But with some many of us, I decided I want to be more analytical. It's helping me clarify my own thoughts...I only hope it's helping everyone else too, if only even a little.)

Analysis of Mormegil:

Day 1

#60: Doesn't think it's logical to not vote someone because they haven't played before. Finds Lommy to be contradictory.

#95: Thinks Valier is too concerned with saving herself. Votes Valier. Might is suspicious for self-vote. Volo seems frazzled. Mac and Rikae look innocent.

#119: Agrees with Volo that Valier's desparate.

#125: Doesn't like Menel's comment how he thinks wolves will kill him in the Night.

#133: Lommy's tone about Nerwen hints that she knows that she will be innocent.

I'm still uncomfortable with his vote for Valier...it seems more of a retaliation than anything. At the end of Day 1, I did grow more suspicious of him.

Day 2

#145: Convinced of Lommy's guilt- say's he's being framed.

A bit defensive for my taste. Though, I can see where he's coming from.

#175: Is glad to see some are considering other candidates than him (Farael, for example). Kath seems innocent. Flip flops on Might. Doesn't understand Sally's logic. Farael seems lost, not sure about Menel, something's not right about Volo.

Conclusion: I don't like his vote on Day 1, and I even less like his first post of Day 2. Still, I don't see why morm would kill Valier. I don't know...anything is possible.

EDIT: X-ed with Fea

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Shasta:

Day 1

#28: Says he thinks Rikae is innocent.

He doesn't vote Day 1, which I don't find unordinary at all. I do wish he explained why he thought Rikae was innocent.

Day 2

#174: Finds morm's post desperate. Says he wants to look at Volo.

#184: Innocent: Kath, Sally, Might
Guilty: Legate, Volo, Morm
Votes Volo.

He doesn't explain why he votes Volo and that frustrates me.

Conclusion: Shasta doesn't say much...he never does and he couldn't easily get away as an under-the-radar wolf. He just pops in and out and doesn't explain any of his suspicions.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of A Little Green:

Day 1

#41: Says anything can be called wolvish. Quiet/loud discussions are pointless. Doesn't find Valier wolfish.

#72: Might has weird behaviour, but not necessarily suspicious. Unsure of Valier. Finds Nerwen and Sally innocent.

#103: Doesn't see what's so suspicious about morm. Is unsure about Lommy. Nerwen is most suspicious.

Wait...she goes from thinking Nerwen probably innocent to most likely suspicious in two posts. I find that odd.

#123: Is uneasy about Lommy. If Nerwen's innocent, Lommy's a question mark. Votes Nerwen because she's the least non-suspicious of her options.

I find the "least non-suspicious" phrasing to be furry.

Day 2

#144: Thinks Lommy's analysis about morm's guilt is too obvious. Thinks Lommy is suspicious because she was loud and Nerwen is innocent.

I find the reason behind that suspicion odd.

Conclusion: Green is being very careful. She tries not to suspect someone too much and her reasonings behind her suspicions are weird. I'm finding her suspicious right now.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Lommy:

Day 1

#32: Thinks people shouldn't grumble about quiets- they leave trails too. Disagrees with Valier that loud players easily stay hidden. Finds Brinn slightly furry.

#36: Doesn't see what's so suspicious about Valier- she seems normal. Doesn't want to vote Green because she's a newbie. Finds Nerwen suspicious because of her comment about Rikae on Mac.

#47: Volo makes sense. Disagrees with Fea's style. Green is too quick to agree, too distant.

#57: Nerwen is flip-flopping. Still suspects Brinn and Green. Feels okay about Aganzir, Volo, Mac. Legate and Valier seem innocent. Might's self-vote is odd: "suspicious in innocent way"

#80: Suspects Nerwen for defensiveness, but not pursuing her. Finds Kath's vote "futile." Plans to bring in a 4th candidate, though doesn't want double lynching.

Why would you bring in another candidate if you're worried about double lynching?

#91: Valier innocent for lurking comment, but furry for the seerish comment (the one's that's been discussed). Thinks Fea seems innocent. Legate's teacherish attitude is troublesome. Finds Nerwen's later posts more suspicious.

#126: Votes Nerwen. States it won't look good for her if Nerwen is innocent.

Nothing grabs me here. I find Lommy's arguments to mostly be quite reasonable.

Day 2

#137: Says Valier's death was because the wolfves thought she was the seer.

Note: she was the first to make this statement

#142: A long analysis. Basically, thinks the wolves thought Valier dreamt of morm, therefore he is guilty.

Through all this analysis, I find it strange she didn't even think of the possibilty that morm was framed.

#151: States that wolves will sacrifice one of their own to get rid of the seer. Finds Green's comments about her suspicious. Suspects morm and Green.

#156: Responding to Rikae. It's possible Valier's death was a framing, but why pick morm to frame?

Because morm was highly suspected yesterDay, therefore more lynchable.

#166: Says Farael makes good points on Rikae.

#185: Feels better about morm after post #175. Not certain.

#187: Innocent: Volo, Mac, Farael, Legate, Shasta
Neutral: Fea, Aganzir, Menel, Kath
Suspicious: Sally, Brinn, Might, Kuru, Morm, Green

Conclusion: Lommy seemed alright Day 1, but toDay her attitude towards morm is odd and it makes me very slightly suspicious of her. But still, I have doubts. After all, would a wolf really act as obvious as Lommy is?

[The Might]

Aahh!!! I've been reading through the last 3 pages of the thread for a half an hour and I come to the same conclusion, such a big game is going to make my head explode if I keep trying to think who says what and why and all that stuff.
Anways, thanks Brinn for the analyses of the others, as I said before as a newbie I'll be more or less dependent on this stuff, as I don't know how different players act in certain situations.

About Legate, hard to say what I don't like about him now, but I kind of feel he is suspicious.
Same goes for Thinlómien.
I don't like how she considers Legate's posts so relaxed and calm. I am sure sure that a smart guy like Legate could well manage to post innocentishly even as a wolf.

Problem is that I can't really say I definitely feel someone is a wolf, I'm quite unsure about the others for now.

Probably will X with Brinniel.

[Kuruharan]

Morm your initially stated reason for voting against Volo was…

I'm going with my gut today and voting for Volo. I know most people think him innocent and that is one thing that scares me as he hasn't 'felt' right to me. I cannot pinpoint it but I feel there is something.
Post 215

Followed by…

I've had a bad feeling about Volo and Menel
Post 308

And

As I think Volo is a wolf
Post 352

And yet you never really explain why.

And you’ve been talking an awful lot about what wolves “would” do and wolf tactics. Here’s another wolf tactic: To talk about targets rather vaguely to look helpful but do nothing to get yourself put in the forefront of the action. And you seem to be doing a good job of staying out of the forefront of the action.

Why do you think Volo is guilty?

For the moment I’m willing to give Volo the benefit of the doubt because a known wolf voted against him. Doesn’t mean he’s innocent, but I think he’s not as high on the threat list as you seem (for reasons you can’t seem to clearly articulate) to insist that he is.

But I'm open to persuasion.

And I think Sally is still odd.

[Brinniel]

I still don't see why so many people are confident both morm and Sally are wolves. Surely there is a manipulative wolf among that group somewhere.

Anyways, I'm totally against a double lynching. Perhaps one of them is a wolf, but I don't think I've ever heard of two wolves being the lynchees of a double lynching. And if both of them are then I'll have to join Farael in a clothes eating party and eat my socks (because they're so much tastier than hats ). When it comes down to it, I'll do what I can to prevent a double lynching from happening.

If there is a double lynching and at least one of them is innocent (and especially if both), I would take a close look at those who were for a double lynching come toMorrow.

It looks like we're going that route so far... we need to keep a close tab of the vote tallies toDay to prevent confusion:

Farael: ++Sally (Sally 1)
Shasta: ++morm (Sally 1, morm 1)
Fea: ++Sally (Sally 2, morm 1)
Menel: ++morm (Sally 2, morm 2)

(A tie already, ugh)

[Kath]

Right, voting time. I'm not convinced of morm's wolvishness. It felt forced yesterDay and now it seems that everyone is running with it just for the sake of it. I'm not too sure about Sally either, though I can certainly see the arguments for her, so:

++MENEL

As he is my current top suspect for his flip flopping ways. While I am used to this from Lommy I am not used to them from him.

I know I'm adding another lynchee here and leaving it at a tie, but I think I'm voting early enough that future votes will be able to avoid causing a double lynch.

[Kuruharan]

Here are the people who have spoken favorably of a double lynch or at some point said they were willing to risk it...

The Might post 298
Menel post 301
Lommy post 339

Everyone else has at least expressed reservations or outright opposition to the idea...

And yet somehow we keep drifting down that road...and now have a third candidate.

[The Might]

Although I admit that Sally could be innocent, I still think that it is much more likely that she's a wolf, and to be honest fron those remaining I can't see anyone being more likely furry.

I find it somewhat strange that so many consider that I have a "suspicious" link to A Little Green only because I voted for her late, from a "safe" position and because I agreed that her description of me voting myself out of frustration was correct.

Does agreeing with a known wolf on such a matter make one suspicious? If yes, then please explain why. As for voting her late, you will notice that I first wanted to vote for Sally, and hoped that others will vote too, because at that time and now as well she was the one I suspected most, and not Green.

Guess a double lynching is too risky as we don't know much yet, I hope that the Seer is doing a good job and might provide with some information soon.

[Macalaure]

I only had a quick read-through. Basing on that:


Innocent(-ish)

Lommy (because I find her interaction with Lily innocent and because I trust an innocent Legate)
Kuru (because he simply didn't do anything that would make me suspicious)
Brinniel (I'm not sure about her, but I can't find anything against her)
Menel (he isn't always right, but he feels genuine to me, so no alarms)
mormegil (honestly, I don't really see what you find suspicious about him, apart from being paranoid to be framed by the wolves, which I think is silly. But then, I'm almost willing to lynch him out of curiousity : his role will shed light on the roles of many others)


Somewhere in the middle

Sally (I can neither imagine a wolf nor an innocent to act like this, but my gut says innocent today. She deserves to be lynched for unhelpfulness , but that doesn't help us either)
Fea (I felt her to be innocent so far, but that feeling is waning. Can't put my finger on it, though)
Farael (is after Sally too much. Could be scapegoating, could be just him´. If she is evil, he's probably innocent)
Aganzir (I'm not satisfied with the read I can get of her, which is little to none)
Kath (same comment as above)
Shasta (Shasta?)


Suspicious(-ish)

Volo (felt fishy since day one. His interaction with Lily is suspicious)
The Might (suspicious interaction with Lily. First copied Rikae, now copied Fea. Overall fishiness)
The two also act too friendly towards each other.


PS: I've seen an all-ordo quadruple lynching once, so:
--double lynchings

[Macalaure]

I'm not happy with the current lynch options. Not. at. all. I still have time for a second, better look at Sally, morm, and Menel, but if I don't find anything I rather feel like adding Volo or the Might, probably Volo, since he's suspected more by others.

[Meneltarmacil]

A few points to bring up:

My comments about being eaten were only sarcastic jokes based on past events. If my ancestors weren't attracting enough suspicion on Day 1, the wolves usually killed them on Night 1.

Now, as to my bandwagoning, what was I supposed to do? Mormegil had attracted three votes due to the fact that he genuinely looked suspicious. I had noticed a distinctive change in his style and had seen him posting random accusations early on. My vote was based on actual suspicions and not just because morm had a lot of votes.

As for who voted whom:

Of the four wolves, I'd say two voted for Nerwen, one voted morm, and the last one could be anywhere, though I think Valier would be the best "wolf-bait" among the remaining candidates.

[mormegil]

Sorry, I'm only to post 193 and while I may make it back in time before the deadline I'm not entirely sure abou it and if I do I doubtful will have a chance to do more than glance through and see the votes.

Sorry Legate...I did copy Kath's vote list *glares at Kath* I was lazy as it seems was Kath for that I apologize. Speaking of Kath, it does surprise me that she honestly suspects me. Others, it doesn't surprise me. Fea I did read your posts because I do/did suspect you so I wanted to see more of what you said and based upon that I still suspect you a bit but you seem more sensible on the matter...which kind of scares me honestly .

To clarify my first post of the day I did laugh (because it is funny at the attempt and I pictured old Lommy running out yelling that morm must be a wolf because Valier looked like a seer which I actually didn't pick up on...I felt her behavior was far more suspicious) at the wolves attempt as it was a very weak set up job but it has worked in so far as the whole day has been spent talking about me. Killing Valier was a benefit to them and the next day result was a calculated side benefit.

I'm going with my gut today and voting for Volo. I know most people think him innocent and that is one thing that scares me as he hasn't 'felt' right to me. I cannot pinpoint it but I feel there is something.

++Volo

[The Might]

So if counted correctly so far we have
Morm - 1 (Sally) and
Volo - 2 (Shasta and Morm)

Problem is that I don't feel I'm any closer to really being sure of who the wolves are...the good thing is that today I'll probably be online before the deadline so count me in for the finishing discussion. Maybe that will help.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++GREEN

Because I have to leave and won't be back before deadline.

Because the person I voted for yesterday has since stopped looking worrisome to me.

Because of all the players I could choose, especially four hours before deadline, Green is the one who seems both wolfish-and-confusing.

She fits into both of my preferences for who to vote for: her actions make me think she's guilty ("What? Me? How could I be guilty, I barely even know who mormegil is!") and other people seem to agree with my instincts on this one (which means it's not necessarily me just making things up).

[Aganzir]

Fea, I think the wolves probably thought Valier was the seer, as I said in my post #141. The thing I didn't like was that Lommy was being so sure that was the case, as if she hadn't considered any other options at all.

Greenie, Lommy asked Kuru to elaborate what was suspicious in her behaviour. Kuru replied that it sounded like Lommy was trying to find out what to do better in order not to get caught. The way Menel asked Rikae to elaborate what she found suspicious with Mac looked to me like he was asking it on behalf of a fellow wolf so that Mac would be able to fix his behaviour without being noticed.

**

Innocent:
Legate
Farael
(Rikae)

Suspicious:
Greenie. She's all too friendly, asks way too much and doesn't have opinions of her own. That's not what I would expect from her, even as a newbie. No offence, but according to my experiences, I really think you are a better player than that.
Sally. Her post #218 makes me cry.
Brinniel. The more I read her posts, the worse feeling from them. I still find her first post empty, toDay's first posts she speculated what morm has to do with Valier's death, and now this enormous analysis project.
Menel. Explained in #186.

Somewhere in the middle:
Mac
Thinlómien. I don't like how she was so sure that Valier was killed because of being considered the seer. Only the wolves know it for sure. She was also almost immediately suspecting morm. But if the wolves knew Valier's death would point at morm, why on earth would one of them be the first one to say it rather than wait for someone else to do it?
Volo. I really don't understand why he thinks Lommy's probably been dreamt of. It almost looks like he's trying to protect a fellow wolf.

No idea:
Might
Mormegil. I don't understand though why non-voters are highly suspicious; I think it's easier for a wolf to avoid too much attention and vote.
Feanor
Kath
Shasta
Kuruharan

I won't probably be able to be here until deadline toDay so I'll vote in an hour.

edit: xed since Greenie. Based on that post of hers I can say I am probably going to vote for her. Sorry dear, but (also) that was quite... non-genuine.