WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Kuruharan]

I suggest we continue to look at Volo as I think many good and valid points are brought against him.

Morm lets hear some reasons come out of your own keyboard for a change.

Whatever else could be said about me, I've not been hiding behind the opinions of other people. I've been standing on my own, which is not a wise wolf tactic (since you seem to want to talk about that so much).

Or do you have a very good reason why the last thing you'd want to do is say something that could definitively be pegged to you?

Tell you what, I'm more than open to being persuaded to vote for Volo or Menel (who I admit is getting rather worrying).

Now's your chance.

[Kuruharan]

*makes a note that in post 366 Macalaure said a double-lynching isn't all that bad...and added another candidate*

Just for future reference in case we need it.

[Thinlómien]

So: a short introduction:

Fea, morm, Greenie and Sally have suspected and trusted each other in a very interesting pattern and I'd like to show it to you. You know my reasons to think Greenie and Sally and morm wolves, but I have not had this far a reason to suspect Fea. However, she would so well fit the wolvish triangle formed by those three previously mentioned, that I've changed my opinion of her.

Next, Greenie's comments on others, then morm's, then Fea's, then Sally's, then my conclusions and other comments.

[Thinlómien]

Greenie on morm
Day1
#103 "Aaaargh someone please enlighten me on what's so overly suspicious about morm? I reread his posts and found nothing too alarming there."
Well, to me that seems like she's really a bit annoyed (and maybe even panicky) because her fellow wolf is to be lynched on arguments she doesn't consider valid.
#190 " PLEASE, WHAT MAKES MORM SO SUSPICIOUS? [eek-smiley] I still don't
get it, despite the various arguments made on a connection between Valier's death and morm's guilt." Asks why I suudenly find morm suspicious. It looks like she's imitating Fea again and somehow I don't like it... also, her expression of feelings is a bit exaggerated which leads me to think there might be something between her and morm... As to her questioning me, it looks like she's trying to make me reconsider my suspicion of her fellow wolf... That could be over-interpreting, though.

Day2
#163 Asks Volo to explain something he had said about morm. I refrain myself from reading too much into that.

In short: I think I've missed a part of my post and she did say once again she said she believed morm innocent again but I'm too tired to look it up again right now. Anyway, she looks suspiciously much like defending a fellow wolf.


Greenie on Fea
Day1
#30 Replies to Fea's banter about soccer and curling. Now, this mightseem like a little thing, but it suggests she is comfortable enough around with Fea to reply her banter and what better a way for a newbie to get to know an old school player than Night1 wolf PMs? Greenie was pretty reserved on Day1 and this doesn't quite fit the pattern.
#41 Agrees with her on the impossibility of catching a wolf on Day1. I don't like it how she immediately adopts Fea's attitude. Do we see a newbie wolf imitating her more experienced companion's playing style?

In short: Well I think I really have lost a part of my post when continuously copypasting and saving it to different places... because I think she said something about Fea on Day2 as well, but I might have mistaken. Anyway, I don't like the way she feels os comfortable about Fea and imitates her.


Greenie on Sally
Day1
#72 As for the others, Nerwen and Sally both look pretty innocent at the moment. Well, could be anything. But somehow I wouldn't wonder if she had included a fellow wolf of hers in such a useless sentence.

In short: Looks like a wolf avoiding being connected with a fellow.

[Thinlómien]

Morm on Greenie
Day3
#316 Speculates on her comments about me and Volo. Could be anything.
#347 "DUH! It just hit me why Green attached herself to me. *hits himself for being so dim-witted* She knew she was a wolf and knew I am innocent, but it looked highly probable when she kept asking why I seem guilty that I would be lynched. What a better way to look good, though it does backfire occasionally, than to question why the main lynch suspect is well...the main lynch suspect when you know him to be innocent." Now that is probably the most fake-sounding comment there ever was in this game.
#369 Mentions her when accusing Volo. Well, a wolf would love to do that... but everybody uses dead wolves' comments so...

In short: He did not mention her once when she was alive! She was such a heated topic that I find this really suspicious.


Morm on Fea
Day1
#22 "The other two that are guilty are likely Kath and Fea as they usualy are guilty." Well, he could say that regardless of his and Fea's roles.
#60 "Anyway, it's good practice to lynch Fea on Day 1 as she generally only causes problems the later it goes. " Well, this hardly gives any clue of their roles or relations.
#95 "Kuru, me wanting to lynch Fea is akin to me wanting to lynch Kath...it's based on principle not reason." See above.

Day2
#145 "Fea, the problem is I feel it far more likely that the wolves didn't mention Valier much if at all. That is the general Modus Operandi of first night kills." Neutral stuff, obv.
#175 "Fea seems a bit more lost than normal." Now, I think it is notable how clearly he avoids saying anything serious about what she thinks of Fea and her possible guilt or innocence...
#215 "Fea I did read your posts because I do/did suspect you so I wanted to see more of what you said and based upon that I still suspect you a bit but you seem more sensible on the matter...which kind of scares me honestly [winking smiley]." Now where did that suspicion come from? Maybe because it'd look to bad if they trusted each other too much? And just look how he makes his suspicion such a little thing he needs not continue it later... Very fishy.

Day3
#364 Mentions her when talking about Menel's poor argumentation. Repeats he always suspects her. Doesn't tell anything.

In short: Could be anything. Thought there is something fishy here.


Morm on Sally
Day2
#145 "I don't understand Sally and her logic. -- In conclusion Sally,
Volo and Menel are the most likely wolves our of those seven." Now he
could well suspect a fellow wolf, couldn't he? Just like he could
suspect a fellow innocent or whatever.

Day3
#308 "Now Sally is rather confusing but I'm guessing she's an innocent trying to be silly and garner reactions...though likely unfruitful [grinning smiley]" Could be wolf-on-wolf -statement, could be somethign else.

In short: Looks like wolvishly distant. Though that conclusion could be reached when talking about morm and almost any other villager, too.

[Thinlómien]

Fea on Greenie
Day2
#202 Replies to her question about morm's suspiciousness. See "Fea on morm."
#203 In a summary: "A Little Green - definitely new. No denying the "what? I'm so confused, please pity me" is over-doing it a bit. A lot. I have to admit, she's a likely vote for me today." Funnily, she seems to change her opinion about her while writing this. And I'm afraid it seems more like a planned action than a changing feeling.
#222 Votes her. "Because of all the players I could choose, especially four hours before deadline, Green is the one who seems both wolfish-and-confusing.
She fits into both of my preferences for who to vote for: her actions make me think she's guilty ("What? Me? How could I be guilty, I barely even know who mormegil is!") and other people seem to agree with my instincts on this one (which means it's not necessarily me just making things up)." I think that sounds like a wolf-on-wolf thing, especially that "other people seem to agree" -part. Oh, and I could so well see a wolvish Fea voting a second pack-mate of hers just to look innocent and laughing all the time...

In short: Looks less suspicious than Green's relation to her, but definitely doesn't clear Fea at all.


Fea on morm
Day1
#90 "I could so easily say the same about you, morm. I was a wolf with you in the past. We were really good wolves. Ergo, I know you're a really good wolf who doesn't come off as wolf-like. My logic is usually this: Say it's the last day and it's me, mormegil, and some other random player. Neither seems any more or less innocent than the other. I know I'm innocent. I KNOW I'm not going to have any idea who to vote for. So my 'strategy,' if you want to call it that, is, when in doubt, to lynch somebody who I know will cause me doubt later. If I have a definite suspicion, I vote for the person I think is guilty. But if I don't know who to vote for, instead of lynching at random, I vote for somebody I know is going to complicate my decision-making later on. Does that make sense? Should I try to rephrase it?" I think she could say this very well if she was morm's fellow wolf, it's the kind of bluff I think she would enjoy. Anyway, this quote doesn't surely point at them being companions, though.
#97 "Just so everybody knows: I take no offense to morm trying to kill me. We have a long history of this sort of thing. I want him dead too." Then she goes and votes him saying he shouldn't have voted Valier. I can see a wolf-Fea doing this to wolf-morm. If morm got lynched, Fea wouldn't be suspected and if he didn't, well, she'd consider it a very funny joke and banter in response to his comments about her. It is a sort of game between them and it definitely doesn't mean they can't be
companions, almost the contrary.

Day2
#140 mentions him when talking about Valier's posts. Says she thinks Valier was killed to frame morm. Now why does she cahnge her opinion of morm this quickly? Simply because Valier died? I consider it odd how she jumps from attacking him on Day1 to defending him on Day2. A wolf
realising her fellow really is in danger and giving a helping hand? Now, you might ask, why would she defend her fellow olf this obviously. I ask, why not? She know the villagers listen to her and may form opinions based on hers, so why would she not use it to help her fellow? After all, if morm was lynched, she could always say "come on, I wouldn't be as obvious as to defend him, if I was his fellow wolf".
#143 Quotes morm. Hardly anything suspicious here...
#146 "Thing is, I really don't think morm would kill Valier. It makes a lot more sense that the wolves are trying to frame him. I know he'd sacrifice himself for a cause (he's done it before), but it just seems so outright stupid for a morm-wolf to kill a villager in the night who seemed to have dreamt about him. Except that it's such a transparent set up that I can't help but think maybe the wolves aren't really trying to frame him, they're just trying to make it look like they are? In any case, I'm leaning toward morm's innocence. I just don't think he'd have killed Val, especially if she'd dreamt of him. It's just too self-incriminating." What I said about her defending him above. If
they were fellow wolves, she would be quite ruthlessly and smartly using her supposed superior knowledge of morm to assure the village. Besides, her logic is slightly faulty, as she so easily discounts the possibility of a double-bluff.
#202 Says morm is seen as suspicious because "1) he's morm (that means
he's suspicious)
2) he voted for somebody people think looked, in retrospect, seerish
3) that person, who expressed suspicion in him, died in the night
he treated the accusation as a joke". Elaborates on that. Says 4 is a bad reason for suspecting him. "Basically, morm has as much of a chance
of being a wolf as any of us. So it's stupid to say "he must be." Because he mustn't." Says morm was
framed by the wolves regardless of whether he was a wolf himself or not. "Either a wolf or he's not. We could kill him to find out, but I think we're wasting our debate on him. I think the wolves are probably sitting back and giggling." I find it very possible that she could have said such things about her fellow wolf. On the other hand, this doesn't mean they're fellow wolves.
#203 In a summary: "Mormegil - innocent. Or I'll be forced to lynch him day one every game in our future for so completely pulling one over on me." Ouch. That does sound a bit like a wolf-on-wolf comment, doesn't it?
#220 "Because the person I voted for yesterday has since stopped looking worrisome to me." See what I said about this switch of opinions previously...

In short: I don't like how she jumps from accusing him to defending him.

Fea on Sally
Day2
#203 In a summary: "Satansaloser2005 - shrug". Well, what a betterway to treat a fellow wolf than not say anything about them at all? But I'm definitely not claiming this statement is incriminating.

Day3
#281 Agrees with Farael that she is supicious, because she's causing chaos. Now that suspicion came quite around the corner... Did she realise she'd finally have to pay some attention to her fellow wolf and come up with an opinion of her?
#283 "Crossed with Sally.
[expression of malcontent]" Now she follows the line she's taken...
#350 Votes Sally. "I feel like the regression back into 'normalcy' was more like a flinch. I still don't know what to think of her earlier "Am I a wolf? Am I not a wolf? Lalala." It's gutsy/stupid for a wolf and irresponsible/stupid for an innocent. Either way, not the sort of likely action I'm comfortable keeping around. I wish I had time to stick around and analyze/watch/etcetera. But I'm not really sure of my suspicions right now. I'm comfortable lynching Sal and hoping she's lupine. Even if she's not, I'd say the village is probably better off without the chaos (I know, this coming from me!)." Now this might be a bit too much even for wolf-Fea. But she is one of the few players there are I could see as doing this to her fellow wolves...

In short: That last italicised comment.

[Thinlómien]

Sally on Greenie
Day2
#257 "Wow! To be honest Greenie has flown under my radar completely. I really need to get more sleep. hehe
Sidenote: with any luck both Greenie and Rikae will be wolves. What fortune would that be!" Now that sounds awfully much like a comment one could make on a fellow wolf as an excuse of not mentioning her.

Day3
#269 "Congratulations to the many villagers who managed to capture the furry beast Greenie yesterday. The Breath shall breathe no more I say, as I sigh in relief." Sounds like a very unsincere wolf congratulation, eh?

In short: Wolvish with a big W.

Sally on morm
Day1
#94 "For some reason I bumped into Morm this morning and I thought he felt a little fuzzy. [rolleyes-smiley] Call it a hunch, but for now that'll have to do, being day one and all." Unless I'm mistaken, she didn't mention him earlier. now this is an odd vote, and quite a bold move if they're both wolves. However, Sally has been, like Volo said, flirting with the idea of being evil and never denied the possibility of her being a wolf, so why wouldn't she jokingly say that about her fellow
wolf on day1 and vote him? That would fit the picture, if you ask me.

Day2
#167 "Secondly I think that there are three possible answers to how Morm fits into last night's kill:
A: Morm is a wolf. The wolves took Valier to be the seer and thought perhaps she dreamed of Morm. Thus they needed to shut her up. This could be a double bluff by the wolves, looking like they're framing Morm but actually not, which also constitutes a risk on their part that Morm will
be found out and killed.
B: Morm is not a wolf. The wolves took Valier to be the seer and wanted to shut her up before she dreamed of any of them. This is, as has been discussed by Lommy and others, a frame job on Morm by the actual werewolves.
C: Morm's wolfishness is irrelevant. The wolves picked Valier completely randomly.
I don't know which option it is though, that's the tough part. :S"
Could be fellows, could be not. However, it's interesting how she phrases A. I believe she was the first one to bring up that framing double-bluff. Now why did it occur to her? because it was what they really did? Interesting...
#169 Votes morm again. "Not completely sure about this, but Morm rubs me the wrong way wolf-wise, so I'll take a chance on it." If they were fellows, this would be bold wolfing, but perfect cover as well. It seems to me like she thinks morm might be going down and tries to get
advantage of it.
#182 Slightly defends me against his accusations of flip-floppery. Also, answers to his general accusation that no one has discussed yesterDay's votes. Does not understand his statement of there being two known innocents, asks for an explanation. Whatever way...
#218 "P.S. I just realized that Morm voted Volo. So chain of events is Sally votes Morm, Volo finds Sally suspicious for picking on Morm, Morm votes Volo. Unless my logic is hugely flawed, that means that it is unlikely that both of us are wolves, Morm and I that is. Because A: why the heck would I vote him both days so vigorously, unless I am either incredibly stupid or incredibly clever, B: the same for Morm's actions today in a way, voting someone who finds me suspicious is either ballsy or idiotic, C: okay I can't think of a C right now but that's alright I'm sure someone else will analyze this post in a bit anyway." I think this has been commented on enough. I think it's a desperate and faulty try to save either of them.

Day3
#325 "I still have a bit of a thing for Morm. One of those things that I can't explain, but I just feel him to be wolvish. Could be the sleep-deprivation, could be instincts, I don't know. I just feel him as a wolf. But voting him both the last two days seems to be unproductive, so I'm just going to change course and look at everyone else more in-depth." She is persistent...
#326 In a summary: "Morm: I've covered this. nuf said. not leaning towards guilty, but rather tripping over it." What I said.
#327 Names him as the person she'd prefer to vote. Surprise, surprise.
#344 "I still think Morm to be a wolf. I know, I'm stubborn, but it's a gut thing. He strikes me as fuzzy. Thus in my sleepy logic the ones trying to help him are either in cahoots with him or just believe him. Either way she's added just based on that. Definitely not enough to vote her or anything, just something to consider if/when Morm is revealed as a wolf. Again, I have my one hunch and can't let go of it, which isn't wrong in itself because surprisingly I'm normally right, but the problem is that Brinn isn't necessarily guilty or innocent based on that one action;' I'm just reminding myself to check into her again later." Doesn't she get bored? Sounds like wolvish argumentation.

In short: She's a bold wolf and he's her fellow.

Sally on Fea
Day2
#167 "Brinn and Fea, I concur. " Well, hmm, nothing, I guess.

Day3
#326 In a summary: "Fea: eeks. I don't know. One post strikes me as ordo, the next as wolf, and so on (you know what I mean.) I can't make up my mind." Smells all too much like wolf-on-wolf. Really.

In short: That last bit is just way too wolvish. Just what a wolf would say about her companion when she's about to die.

[Kuruharan]

I was actually looking more for reasons to vote for somebody else rather than morm defense. You didn’t really talk about reasons why to vote for other players.

Come now Kuru, I think it's hard to believe that I have not been outspoken.
Post 369

You’ve struck me as being stealthy.

I don't remember it coorelating with when he began to suspect me but let's be honest, we knew he wouldn't be here on day 2 and on day 1 there wasn't much to go on with him. So is it odd that on day 3 I suspect him based on more information that I have?

Well, it actually did, but in fairness I attacked with my first post of this Day.

I’m still open to other options.

Sally : While she has been decidedly strange…I’m not sure if she’s been wolfishly strange. She is definitely unpredictable and I think right now more of a liability than an asset…but I’m not sure I’m comfortable voting for her right now.

Menel : He’s been a bit wild, swinging from one opinion to the other. This could very well be a smokescreen. It’s certainly chaotic.

Volo : I’m having a hard time understanding why a wolf would vote for another wolf with their last vote before lynching. While it might be that A Little Green did it to throw us off the scent…I’m not comfortable voting for Volo today.

Lommy : I’ve felt better about her for the most part…but part of me just doesn’t trust her. I’m definitely going to be watching.

Whatever happens, I’ll try to work to prevent a double lynching as I think they are just bad. It is quite possible that we'd be wrong about both.

EDIT: Cross posted with Lommy's Walls o' Text.

[Kuruharan]

I'm noticing that The Might has brought up a couple of issues to get us sidetracked.

Not sure if that is really important but thought I should mention it.

[Brinniel]

I'm glad to see we got more candidates in the running, but I don't think we should spread it out anymore.

I still suspect Volo and Menel the most, more so with Menel at the moment.

Menel is being very flip floppy. As soon as people notice his sudden hesitance with pursuing morm as wolfy, he goes back and attacks him again. Very odd and very suspicious. Menel seems to be trying hard not to draw suspicion from others, but he's only making it worse.

I would really prefer to vote Menel toDay. Is there anyone else who feels the same way besides Kath? I'll go for it, but I don't want to risk a double or triple lynch with my vote.

Morm is acting very defensive; it worries me slightly, but I'm not convinced it's wolfish behaviour. More likely a frustrated innocent. And Sally I'm still not sure about, but I think she's just a chaotic innocent. I'd rather not vote for either of them, but I'll do it if it means preventing a double lynching.

[mormegil]

I was really hoping to be here near day end but it will not work as I have a meeting for the next 90 minutes. Anyway I'm going with the person who I feel most suspicious and who I feel I've presented a decent amount of evidence against. He really seems desparate to kill me and is grasping at straws and flip-flopping like crazy.

++Menel

If I am killed today or tonight I ask that you look closely at those who orchestrated my death, namely Kuru, Menel, Volo and others.

[Meneltarmacil]

Everyone seems to think I was flip-flopping on mormegil last night when I said I'd do the analysis. All I said was that I wasn't quite as sure of my suspicions then as I was before. I did not say that morm was innocent and I never have. I simply decided to reconsider my suspicions and take another look at mormegil.

I also did not say that Volo was innocent either, just that morm never gave sufficient reason for his suspicion of him. As for what he's lately described as evidence:
-He doesn't give any reason why Volo out of those who didn't vote Nerwen is suspicious. All he said in that post with regards to Volo was something like "these people didn't vote for Nerwen, and Volo, [B]Menel[/], etc. are the most suspicious." No reason is given as to why said people were suspicious in that post (#175).

-The connection to Greenie: She suspected him and didn't give a reason, and thus it could be a wolf-on-wolf vote. OK, that could be evidence against Volo, but morm was engaging in the same thing as Greenie here, meaning that if her action is wolfish, so is his.

-The statement in Post 352 is something I've mentioned already, and only shows that Volo, wolf or not, doesn't want people to think of me as a wolf. It doesn't mean that he's a wolf, though.

OK, once again, I am not trying to say that Volo is innocent and should be trusted. All I'm saying is that morm's suspicion of him was not well-founded. In fact, he doesn't mention anything specific until Day 3. (Post 175, as I said, does not actually give a reason for why Volo is any more suspicious than the rest who didn't vote for Nerwen.

[Thinlómien]

I will vote either morm or Sally toDay, depending on which one could get lynched.

And does no one really have anything to say about my theory?